1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,640 Speaker 1: But in coming to a close in Britain in the 2 00:00:01,639 --> 00:00:03,920 Speaker 1: next hour or so. The expectation is history is about 3 00:00:03,920 --> 00:00:06,520 Speaker 1: to unfold. The polls right there's against you and red 4 00:00:06,559 --> 00:00:09,280 Speaker 1: waves sweeping Labor into office with a majority not seen 5 00:00:09,320 --> 00:00:12,920 Speaker 1: in decads. Cheap political correspondent at the Times, Aubrey Eligritty 6 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 1: is with us on this, Aubury, very good morning to you. 7 00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:16,600 Speaker 2: Good morning. 8 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:18,520 Speaker 1: Any sense of turnout. 9 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:23,600 Speaker 2: So I would see the very hotly sated topic and 10 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:26,560 Speaker 2: we're still waiting for any kind official numbers, but the 11 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:28,800 Speaker 2: speculation is that this could be potentially quite a low 12 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 2: turnout election because when you look at the opinion polls, 13 00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:36,839 Speaker 2: you're seeing record low numbers for the main two parties, 14 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:39,879 Speaker 2: the Labor Party and the Conservative Party, and so it 15 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 2: could be diffing below seventy percent. 16 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:46,559 Speaker 1: The actual campaign itself, did it make any difference or 17 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 1: was this a full on conclusion since day one? 18 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 2: Well, Richie Sunac had the chance to all this election. 19 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 2: It's part of the sort of biggest gift he has. 20 00:00:56,880 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 2: He can spring it as a surprise on the opposition 21 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 2: and try to use it to his own advantage. But 22 00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 2: it doesn't seem to have worked. He went into this 23 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 2: election campaign with the Conservative Party the governing party at 24 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 2: the moment, twenty points behind the opinion polls, as they 25 00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 2: really have been ever since the ill fated premiership of 26 00:01:13,720 --> 00:01:16,880 Speaker 2: Liz Trust that lasted only forty nine days, and during 27 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:20,480 Speaker 2: the course of that campaign the Poles have been particularly sticky. 28 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:24,200 Speaker 2: They haven't moved substantially. If anything, really the Conservatives have 29 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 2: seen a little bit of a dip, seeing their vote 30 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 2: share being eaten into by the other party on the right, 31 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 2: led by Nigel Farage, known as Reform. So actually the 32 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 2: campaign doesn't seem to have substantively changed very much. 33 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 1: Do you, with your experience believe the polls? Is history 34 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 1: going to be made? Is the wave messap? 35 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:47,120 Speaker 2: It certainly seems that way. I mean, opinion polls obviously 36 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:50,440 Speaker 2: have been used with varying degrees of accuracy before. I 37 00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 2: think the thing that is so different about this time 38 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:55,160 Speaker 2: is that they have been stuck this way for so long. 39 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 2: So all the way back to October twenty twenty two, 40 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:01,200 Speaker 2: they have showed that Labour's leaders about twenty points in 41 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 2: front and the Conservatives have been on the complete back foot. 42 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:08,399 Speaker 2: So that suggests that there hasn't really been any sort 43 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:12,799 Speaker 2: of radical shift that there isn't a sort of outlier poll, 44 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:18,360 Speaker 2: and certainly MPs and ministers feel it on the doorsteps 45 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 2: as well. We have even had ministers tonight effectively tweeting 46 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:23,760 Speaker 2: their resignation and saying that they know that they're going 47 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 2: to be out of office, even though you know, officially 48 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:29,640 Speaker 2: we don't know how anyone's voted yet. So actually, I 49 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:31,640 Speaker 2: think the result of this election does, to a lot 50 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 2: of people feel like a fore gone conclusion. 51 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 1: And what's your assistment of Stammer And does he have 52 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:39,240 Speaker 1: the discipline to control a caucus that's potentially messive with 53 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 1: a tremendous amount of inexperience. 54 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 2: Absolutely, there is a danger, if you like, to winning 55 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:51,320 Speaker 2: the largest majority for a political party in modern political history, 56 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:56,640 Speaker 2: and that is that people become potentially unruly, that they 57 00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:59,679 Speaker 2: might rebel against the government. I suppose the thing that 58 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:01,440 Speaker 2: he can count on is that his majority is so 59 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 2: big it doesn't matter. But there's also the issue of 60 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 2: lots of kind of sleeves and scandal that's dogged the 61 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 2: Conservative Party for many years, and that was partly seen 62 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:12,280 Speaker 2: as a result of the fact that lots of people 63 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 2: got elected who didn't anticipate becoming MPs back in twenty nineteen, 64 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:19,040 Speaker 2: and if the same is true this time, then potentially 65 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:21,160 Speaker 2: you have people with a lot of baggage, a lot 66 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 2: of history who get into parliament. There aren't enough roles 67 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 2: for them to have any sort of official title of 68 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 2: the party or politically as ministers, and so they languish 69 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 2: in the comments, they get up to no good and 70 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 2: so that could present as danger for Kissama as well. 71 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 1: Great and so will we go well a couple of 72 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 1: hours just under a couple of hours to go or 73 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 1: be ellegritting the two political correspondent at the time. For 74 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:45,000 Speaker 1: more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to news 75 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 1: talks it'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the 76 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 1: podcast on iHeartRadio.