1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: Donald Trump has hinted that he might be after a 2 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:05,480 Speaker 1: regime change in Iran. After all, he's posted on social 3 00:00:05,519 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: media it's not politically correct to use the term regime change, 4 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:11,880 Speaker 1: but if a current Iranian regime is unable to make 5 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: a run great again, why wouldn't there be a regime change? Now? 6 00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:17,640 Speaker 1: This would be a mission change because it was previously 7 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:20,439 Speaker 1: the bombs were previously only about getting rid of the 8 00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:24,600 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons. And David kilcullen served in Iraq and Afghanistan. 9 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:26,720 Speaker 1: He was an advisor to former US Secretary of State 10 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:29,560 Speaker 1: Condoleeza Rice is now a professor at Cambrie University and 11 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:33,600 Speaker 1: with US Hello David, hey, hether, what do you reckon? 12 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:36,199 Speaker 1: Does this get bigger? Does this become about regime change? 13 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:40,480 Speaker 2: Well, the real answer is nobody knows. There are certainly 14 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:47,520 Speaker 2: people within Donald Trump's coalition of supporters in the US 15 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:52,560 Speaker 2: that would be extraordinarily unhappy at any escalation or any 16 00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 2: bigger conflict, and we've seen them getting very vocal over 17 00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:58,800 Speaker 2: the last few days. But there are also influential people 18 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 2: in the Senate and elsewhere who would like to see 19 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 2: a regime change. So it's really a I think, you know, 20 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:10,320 Speaker 2: as any other veteran will probably tell you. Starting a conflict, 21 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 2: politicians may think they've got a clear idea where it 22 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:16,960 Speaker 2: ends up, but you almost never do, and once the 23 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 2: bombs drop, you know, it can really escalate in unexpected directions. 24 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,319 Speaker 1: Do you believe that Iran was working on a nuclear weapon? 25 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:28,720 Speaker 2: We know that they were prior to two thousand and three. 26 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 2: There have been basically three different assessments that are out there. 27 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 2: One is the US Intelligence Community assessment, which is recently 28 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:40,120 Speaker 2: as March this year, said that they had not restarted 29 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 2: that program since two thousand and three. They were talking 30 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 2: about it more, but they hadn't. The second version of 31 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 2: events is the Israeli version, which suggests that they were 32 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 2: days two weeks away from having a functioning nuclear weapon, 33 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 2: which should caveate that, but by saying that the Israelis 34 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 2: have been saying some version of that for about twenty 35 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:08,799 Speaker 2: years now, so there's some debate about whether that's more 36 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 2: of a political statement or more of an analytical statement. 37 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 2: And then the third option is what the IAEA, the 38 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:20,639 Speaker 2: International Atomic Energy Authority, said on the night for June, 39 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 2: which was that the Iranians seem to have enough fissile material, 40 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 2: but they haven't currently made a bomb, so there's really 41 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 2: a lot of dispute out there as to what the 42 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 2: actual state of the Iranian nuclear program is. 43 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:39,760 Speaker 1: If they were in fact making a bomb or getting 44 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:43,840 Speaker 1: very close to the possibility of switching to that, blowing 45 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 1: these three sites up to the extent that the US 46 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 1: has does this, I mean, it seems to me this 47 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:50,880 Speaker 1: would only delay it. Right, It's not going to stop 48 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 1: what they're doing, is it. 49 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:57,519 Speaker 2: Well. The Israelis, of course, have been in an active 50 00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 2: war with Iran for about ten days and have killed 51 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 2: a number of major nuclear scientists as well as damaging 52 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:09,240 Speaker 2: lots of other sites. The reason for the US strike 53 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:13,800 Speaker 2: being so essential to Iran's war plans is that to 54 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 2: target the Photo site, which is the one that's deeply 55 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 2: buried under a mountain, you needed a weapon that only 56 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 2: the US has, which is the so called massive ordinance penetrator, 57 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:29,360 Speaker 2: which is a sort of fourteen thousand pounds bomb. So, 58 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 2: you know, I think the chances of US getting a 59 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 2: clear battle damage assessment anytime soon are pretty slim. I 60 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 2: think the US government is trying to portray it as 61 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:46,600 Speaker 2: complete destruction of Photo, but there's really no way to 62 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:50,120 Speaker 2: tell that until somebody gets in there and takes a look, 63 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 2: and of course there's very little chance of that. 64 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 1: David, thank you very much, really appreciate your time. That's 65 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 1: David Kilcallum, who is of course a former advisor to 66 00:03:57,160 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 1: Secretary of State US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice. For 67 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 1: more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to Newstalk 68 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 1: SETB from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.