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Speaker 1: GDP day. As I mentioned this morning, the print four

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Speaker 1: Q one, What did the economy doing? Jan Fab and March.

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Speaker 1: Are we're still in recession or not? ASBC new economist

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Speaker 1: Kim Mundy is back. Well, it's Keiven, very good morning

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Speaker 1: to you.

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Speaker 2: Good morning.

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Speaker 1: So you're bullish. Bullish at zero point one of zero

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Speaker 1: point one is bullish? What are you? Where did you

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Speaker 1: see the growth?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, we're not expecting it was another recession

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Speaker 2: in the quarter. That's hardly a strong quarter of growth

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Speaker 2: at just point one, but we do think it was

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Speaker 2: sort of spread over both the primary sector, so that's

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Speaker 2: things like dairy output, forestry, fishing, and then also still

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Speaker 2: the services sector. So the services sector has been a

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Speaker 2: part of the economy that's really been outperforming since post

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Speaker 2: COVID because once those COVID restrictions were lifted, we have

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Speaker 2: spent a lot of our time and a lot of

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Speaker 2: our demand has been driven towards those services rather than

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Speaker 2: the good sort of sector.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so let's say you're correct and we've got just

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Speaker 1: a little bit of growth. What about Q two And

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Speaker 1: I know we're not out of it yet, but we're

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Speaker 1: just about out of it. Does Q two improve on

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Speaker 1: Q one, or if Q one's not that flash, Q

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Speaker 1: two is going to be no better either.

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Speaker 2: Look, we actually think Q two is probably going to

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Speaker 2: be worse again at this stage looking at the data

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Speaker 2: that's come out so far. And I think that's the

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Speaker 2: key thing to keep in mind, is that we are

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Speaker 2: in a period of really really weak private demand. So

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Speaker 2: monetary policy is working, a lot of people are pulling

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Speaker 2: back on their spending that impacts the economy. Data out

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Speaker 2: so far suggests that's just sort of continued to ramp up,

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Speaker 2: so to speak. How the market activity has been pretty soft,

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Speaker 2: so sign so far suggests that Q two could actually

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Speaker 2: see us slipped back into a bit of a decline.

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Speaker 1: So here's my problem ongoing. So what is it that

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Speaker 1: breaks the cycle? So, whether you're right today on Q

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Speaker 1: one and Q two, you say, it's as flat as

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Speaker 1: a pancake, it's ugly as so Adrian comes to the

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Speaker 1: party in what late this year maybe early next year,

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Speaker 1: and goes, there's a cut, Maybe there's another cut. Do

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Speaker 1: we all suddenly wake up and go hellolujah? At that point,

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Speaker 1: are we in for some hard yards for a sustained

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Speaker 1: period of time?

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Speaker 2: We are in for a pretty tough period of time,

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Speaker 2: I think. I mean, there will be a bit of

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Speaker 2: a confidence boost once we do hear from Adrian that Yep,

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Speaker 2: we've done enough, We've got there. We will start to

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Speaker 2: ease monetary policy. But the fact that monetary policy takes

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Speaker 2: time to impact the economy. That works in both directions.

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Speaker 2: So those of those people on sex mortgages, they have

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Speaker 2: to wait till their mortgage rolls off before they feel

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Speaker 2: the impact of those lower interest rates. So it will

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Speaker 2: be quite a long time before the sort of pressure

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Speaker 2: starts to ease out of the out of the economy exactly.

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Speaker 1: Are you into the survive to twenty five thing or

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Speaker 1: is that just buzz talk?

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Speaker 2: No? I think that's I mean, that is very much

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Speaker 2: the case. I mean, we're expecting the OCO will start

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Speaker 2: to be cut in twenty February twenty twenty five. I mean,

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Speaker 2: certain sectors will feel the impact of that sooner than others,

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Speaker 2: or anything sort of touching how they market might get

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Speaker 2: a bit of the boost off the back of that,

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Speaker 2: because it's very interest rate sensitive. But you know, if

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Speaker 2: we can get through to early twenty twenty five to

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Speaker 2: the cup do start to come, then we should start

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Speaker 2: to get you know, a little bit of a reprieve.

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Speaker 2: It will just take time for that to really flow

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Speaker 2: through the entire economy.

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Speaker 1: I appreciate your insight. Can go well, have a good day,

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Speaker 1: Kim Monday, I as we've seen your economics. For more

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Speaker 1: from News Talks B listen live on air or online,

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