1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,440
Speaker 1: Back to the big business tonight in Turkey or is

2
00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:05,040
Speaker 1: there tight lips all around as to who's going to

3
00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:07,600
Speaker 1: be there. I'm suggesting Trump may even get involved. Zelenski

4
00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:11,000
Speaker 1: says he will be there. Putin has said nothing, So

5
00:00:11,080 --> 00:00:13,319
Speaker 1: what chance this blows up? Or maybe we've got an

6
00:00:13,400 --> 00:00:16,160
Speaker 1: end in sight. Retired Australia Major general and strategistmic Ryan

7
00:00:16,160 --> 00:00:17,040
Speaker 1: back with us on the program.

8
00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:19,720
Speaker 2: Very good morning, Yeah good, It's great to be with

9
00:00:19,720 --> 00:00:20,079
Speaker 2: you again.

10
00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:22,159
Speaker 1: I appreciate you getting up early for us. Now, the

11
00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:27,640
Speaker 1: desire for progress. Who's who blinks first? He who needs

12
00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:28,160
Speaker 1: who more?

13
00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:33,200
Speaker 2: I actually think Putin probably needs this more than anybody.

14
00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:36,800
Speaker 2: At the end of the day, he's not doing that well.

15
00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:40,400
Speaker 2: He likes to messages that he's taking grand in Ukraine,

16
00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:43,960
Speaker 2: but essentially he's failed at his core objective for the war,

17
00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:49,479
Speaker 2: which is to subjugate Ukraine. Trump would obviously like to

18
00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:52,600
Speaker 2: see some kind of progress, but he's also indicated that

19
00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:55,480
Speaker 2: he's happy to walk away if he doesn't achieve that.

20
00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:58,120
Speaker 1: Do you believe he'll walk away or America walks away

21
00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:00,320
Speaker 1: or not?

22
00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:03,240
Speaker 2: Not? At this point because pretty much every promise Trump

23
00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:06,320
Speaker 2: has made during the election campaign and since he's walked

24
00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:09,400
Speaker 2: back on, including tariffs and these kind of things. So

25
00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:12,199
Speaker 2: you know, I think we should take that walk away

26
00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:15,119
Speaker 2: threat with a grain of Saltea and Witkoff have been

27
00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:18,319
Speaker 2: threatening this for months. They yet to do it. They

28
00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:22,240
Speaker 2: remain engaged, and we see that both Witkoff and Kellogg,

29
00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:26,399
Speaker 2: the other American who's involved in this process, will both

30
00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:29,520
Speaker 2: be in Turkey for these talks if they occur.

31
00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:34,840
Speaker 1: Are they being stretched as the administration being stretched at

32
00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:39,600
Speaker 1: the moment between Iran, the Middle East, the Tourran? What

33
00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:43,800
Speaker 1: else can I think of that's in the India, Pakistan, Syria?

34
00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:46,119
Speaker 1: I mean, is it too much going on?

35
00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:51,680
Speaker 2: Well? I think the degree of threats would be an

36
00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:56,600
Speaker 2: intellectual and physical challenge for any administration. And this isn't

37
00:01:56,960 --> 00:02:01,200
Speaker 2: the most capable or intellectual administration we've seen in America's history.

38
00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:05,640
Speaker 2: So you know, they are stretched, and you know the

39
00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:08,400
Speaker 2: world is probably the most at the most dangerous point

40
00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:11,960
Speaker 2: we've seen in many, many decades, So any administration would

41
00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:15,040
Speaker 2: be struggling. This one is probably struggling more than most

42
00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:15,760
Speaker 2: would have.

43
00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:18,480
Speaker 1: They overplayed their hand the Americans, that says on the

44
00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:22,200
Speaker 1: minerals deal while threatening to walk given that, why would

45
00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:23,960
Speaker 1: you walk if you've got a minerals deal.

46
00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:28,720
Speaker 2: Well, they certainly overpromised and underdelivered on it. I mean,

47
00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:31,400
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, they walked back a

48
00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:34,360
Speaker 2: bunch of threats on paying back this ludicrous three hundred

49
00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:37,360
Speaker 2: and fifty billion dollar figure, which was just some made

50
00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:40,919
Speaker 2: up figure in Trump's mind. And we should remember too

51
00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:43,800
Speaker 2: that the Americans in twenty seventeen signed a very similar

52
00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:46,679
Speaker 2: deal with the government of Afghanistan. Then two years later

53
00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,440
Speaker 2: it went behind their back and negotiated a peace with

54
00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:52,120
Speaker 2: their enemies. So you know, I don't think we should

55
00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:54,720
Speaker 2: hold out too much hope for this mineral's deal, other

56
00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:58,080
Speaker 2: than it might keep the Americans interested in Ukraine in

57
00:02:58,080 --> 00:02:58,560
Speaker 2: the future.

58
00:02:58,760 --> 00:03:02,560
Speaker 1: As we understand it, the American idea as Crimea has

59
00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:05,160
Speaker 1: gone to the Russians because no one objected when they

60
00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:07,839
Speaker 1: grabbed it, and the ground they've got currently they get

61
00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:11,200
Speaker 1: to keep. One can Zelenski live with that? Can the

62
00:03:11,200 --> 00:03:14,200
Speaker 1: people of Ukraine live with that? And two if they could?

63
00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:16,120
Speaker 1: Is that a win for Russia? And is that how

64
00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:17,040
Speaker 1: Putin would see it?

65
00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:24,680
Speaker 2: Firstally, I think that the Ukrainians will remain pretty pragmatic

66
00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:29,520
Speaker 2: in negotiating a ceasefire, a war termination agreement may see

67
00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:34,160
Speaker 2: them except that the Russians temporarily occupy Ukrainian territory. But

68
00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:37,240
Speaker 2: they've been very clear and I don't think this will change.

69
00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:41,800
Speaker 2: They won't accept that these are parts of Russia. And

70
00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:43,760
Speaker 2: you know, this will be a problem for Russia in

71
00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:46,880
Speaker 2: the future too, because Russia will have to protect its

72
00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:51,520
Speaker 2: occupied Leans against the Ukrainians. So it's a threat to them.

73
00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:54,480
Speaker 2: You know, at the end of the day, no one

74
00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:58,240
Speaker 2: wants peace more than the Ukrainians do. But as most

75
00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:00,880
Speaker 2: of the Poles in Ukraine have pointed out, Ukrainians don't

76
00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:02,720
Speaker 2: want peace at any price.

77
00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:08,040
Speaker 1: Do you believe the narrative that unless Putin has stopped,

78
00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:10,760
Speaker 1: he will carry on. Does he have the capability to

79
00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:11,960
Speaker 1: carry on if he hasn't done that?

80
00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:15,960
Speaker 2: Well here, yeah, absolutely, I mean it's no longer a narrative,

81
00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:23,080
Speaker 2: it's an intelligence assessment from multiple European countries that Putin

82
00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:27,440
Speaker 2: is beginning with Ukraine, not ending with Ukraine. That's why

83
00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:30,960
Speaker 2: the Poles are spending, you know, are over four percent

84
00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:34,200
Speaker 2: of their GDP underfense, why the Baltics and Finland and

85
00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:39,040
Speaker 2: Sweden are why Finland and Sweden joined NATO even when

86
00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:42,279
Speaker 2: they didn't during the Cold War. They all believe the

87
00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:46,400
Speaker 2: Putin has wider designs on a sphere of influence in Europe,

88
00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:49,560
Speaker 2: and even if he doesn't have the capability, he is

89
00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:51,640
Speaker 2: building the capability. But even if he didn't, it would

90
00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:53,960
Speaker 2: be prudent for us to assume that he wants to

91
00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:58,480
Speaker 2: do that and take the measures necessary to ded that behavior.

92
00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:01,120
Speaker 1: Where does the EU and NA fit into this? Can

93
00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:03,640
Speaker 1: a deal be done without them, you know, actually being

94
00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:05,919
Speaker 1: involved or is it a photocompley or what?

95
00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:09,200
Speaker 2: No, I don't think there's a deal here without the

96
00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:14,360
Speaker 2: EU being involved and NATO. I mean, EU has a

97
00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:17,679
Speaker 2: much closer relationship with the EU than the United States

98
00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:20,800
Speaker 2: does in many respects Ukraine is on the pathway to

99
00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:24,560
Speaker 2: EU membership. You know, you can look up the annual

100
00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:28,480
Speaker 2: assessments of how Ukraine he's doing on that. NATO is

101
00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:32,280
Speaker 2: a bit different. I mean, you've already seen the Europeans

102
00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:36,560
Speaker 2: inching around a different alliance construct than the current US

103
00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:39,160
Speaker 2: led NATO. So I think EU is going to be

104
00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:42,120
Speaker 2: an essential part of a solution for Ukraine purely because

105
00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:46,599
Speaker 2: of the economic dimensions of reconstruction in post war.

106
00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:49,920
Speaker 1: Development for Ukrain simple terms, what happens is this going

107
00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:50,839
Speaker 1: to get sorted or not.

108
00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:55,320
Speaker 2: If I was a betting person, I wouldn't be expecting

109
00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:58,520
Speaker 2: too much out of any meeting that happens in Turkey.

110
00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:01,000
Speaker 2: We don't even know who's going to turn up. Putin

111
00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:04,080
Speaker 2: is still stringing everyone along. I don't know that he

112
00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:07,039
Speaker 2: can continue to do that successfully with the Americans, even

113
00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:09,360
Speaker 2: though at some point become frustrated with him.

114
00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:11,680
Speaker 1: Always a pleasure, make appreciate your time very much. Let's

115
00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:15,040
Speaker 1: talk again soon. Retired major General, academic and strategists these days,

116
00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:16,440
Speaker 1: mcryan Out of Australias.

117
00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:19,680
Speaker 2: For more from the My Asking Breakfast, listen live to

118
00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:22,880
Speaker 2: news talks. It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow

119
00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:24,480
Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio