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Speaker 1: In the middle of it all, the center of a

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Speaker 1: changing geopolitical force field. Catherine Field, very good morning to you.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Mike. That really does sum it up, doesn't It?

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Speaker 1: Does it feel like that?

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Speaker 3: It does? It really does.

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Speaker 2: I know that this current Russian invasion of Ukraine started

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Speaker 2: three years ago and it's been you know, we've talked

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Speaker 2: about often enough, it's been on the doorstep for a

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Speaker 2: long time. But I think today we really do get

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Speaker 2: the feeling with what We've got eight heads of government

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Speaker 2: of European nations, plus the head of NATO, the head

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Speaker 2: of the EU here in Paris talking about how the

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Speaker 2: future roadmap of European security will pan out without the

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Speaker 2: Americans being on their side. So really, Mike, I've seen

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Speaker 2: a lot of my career, but this is the first

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Speaker 2: time I've really thought, gosh, you know, the ground is

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Speaker 2: really changing, and no one knows where it's going to go,

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Speaker 2: simply because there are so many confused remarks, pinions and

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Speaker 2: ideas coming from the Trump administration, not only in Washington,

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Speaker 2: but also what Europeans heard over the weekend about not

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Speaker 2: just America's involvement with securing Europe's security, that commitment to

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Speaker 2: Europe security, but also your other things like what's going

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Speaker 2: to happen to Ukraine, what's going to happen with Russia,

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Speaker 2: where the Russia is going to be allowed back? In

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Speaker 2: so many confused messages, and to have so many heads

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Speaker 2: of government get together and say wow, this is important,

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Speaker 2: We've got to get together to sort something out.

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Speaker 1: Well, it's all very well to get together and say wow,

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Speaker 1: what actually are they going to do?

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Speaker 2: This is a big question and can they do it?

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Speaker 2: Do they have the money to do it? Here's what

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Speaker 2: they're going to try and do. We've heard what just

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Speaker 2: in the last twenty four hours the uk kes Starmer

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Speaker 2: has said that if there is a ceasefire then the

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Speaker 2: British would be happy to deploy troops in some manner.

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Speaker 3: We don't know how that would be. Let's think back

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Speaker 3: last year.

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Speaker 2: That was exactly the same idea that French President Emmanuel

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Speaker 2: Macron came up with.

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Speaker 3: He was talking about.

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Speaker 2: Not having French troops actually in Ukraine, but having seen

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Speaker 2: French troops along the borders you're with Ukraine, that would

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Speaker 2: free up some of their border patrol personnel to be

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Speaker 2: able to go and be on the front line. So

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Speaker 2: we're looking at that what else could they do. The

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Speaker 2: big thing they've got to do, Mike is find money.

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Speaker 2: They need to be able to spend and spend big

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Speaker 2: on European security. So what they're going to talk about

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Speaker 2: there is how do they do it. Do they raise

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Speaker 2: the debt ceiling? Do they really antagonize the Americans by

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Speaker 2: upping all the procurement for just European firms. All these

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Speaker 2: are on the table, but certainly the big thing they

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Speaker 2: need is they need to come out and they need

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Speaker 2: to say very clearly, we know we're in a difficult position.

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Speaker 2: We're going for clarity. This is what we need. And

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Speaker 2: the other big point, of course is the these talks

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Speaker 2: that are going to be going on in the Middle

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Speaker 2: East between the Americans and the Russians. They're going to

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Speaker 2: stand there and hopefully within the next couple of hours

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Speaker 2: they will say Ukraine has to be part of those

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Speaker 2: talks and the EU has to be part.

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Speaker 3: Of those talks.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, good luck with that. John Major on watching

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Speaker 1: him yesterday, America's isolation was creating a power vacuum that

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Speaker 1: would embolden nations like Russia and China, and that there

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Speaker 1: was no doubt Russia would invade elsewhere before long? Are

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Speaker 1: that all the people in the room you just talked

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Speaker 1: about going here here to that broad sentiment.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, there really has been a feeling since that phone

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Speaker 2: call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin last week, there

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Speaker 2: really has been a feeling that the US is moving

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Speaker 2: away from Europe. It's no longer going to regard Europe

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Speaker 2: as its security priority.

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Speaker 3: That focus will shift to China.

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Speaker 2: That will give Russia a chance to actually carry out

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Speaker 2: more of the type or threaten to carry out the

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Speaker 2: type of invasions that they've been doing in Ukraine. Certainly,

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Speaker 2: when you look at what Putin and Trump were talking about,

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Speaker 2: Putin was talking about limiting NATO forces in Eastern Europe,

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Speaker 2: saying that Ukraine couldn't join NATO. These are all the

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Speaker 2: old talking points, Mike. And it's interesting that Putin is

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Speaker 2: only talking about his view of Eastern Europe, those countries

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Speaker 2: that are alongside Russia, alongside Belarus, and he wants them

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Speaker 2: to be within the Russian sphere of influence.

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Speaker 1: Right, Hey, listen, I'm out of time, but I'm deeply

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Speaker 1: interested in Germany this weekend. What chance the AfD wins,

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Speaker 1: What chances the AfD wins and can form some sort

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Speaker 1: of government.

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Speaker 3: They will win big.

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Speaker 2: According to opinion polls, they will get at least twenty

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Speaker 2: percent of the votes. But again Mike, it's coalition government,

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Speaker 2: so they won't have enough to possible. It looks unlikely anyway,

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Speaker 2: they won't have enough to be the lead in the coalition.

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Speaker 2: But so and we're looking at possibly May before they

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Speaker 2: get a coalition agreement before with the parties that will

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Speaker 2: go in, which is a.

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Speaker 3: Bad time for Germany to be without a government.

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Speaker 1: I reckon talk next week. Appreciate it, Catherine Field. Literally

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Speaker 1: history unfollowing before us. It's such an interesting time. The Irish,

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Speaker 1: by the way I'm reading this morning, speaking of Europe,

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Speaker 1: they're goods. Exports to the United States search thirty four percent.

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Speaker 1: Under normal circumstances, that will be fantastic, except when you've

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Speaker 1: got a president who doesn't like that sort of business.

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Speaker 1: Because the flip side imports from the usfl so that's

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Speaker 1: called a surplus. He doesn't like it. So they can

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Speaker 1: stand by for some terrif action as well. For more

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Speaker 1: from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to news Talks.

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Speaker 2: It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast

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Speaker 2: on iHeartRadio,