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Speaker 1: Kyota.

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Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a

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Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by.

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Speaker 1: The New Zealand Herald.

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Speaker 2: A new poll out today spells a storm brewing for National.

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Speaker 2: The Taxpayer's Union Courier Pole has shown National drop nearly

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Speaker 2: three points to twenty eight point four percent, the lowest

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Speaker 2: poll for the party since it formed a government in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 1: It's while Labor is up zero.

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Speaker 2: Point three points to thirty four point four percent, The

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Speaker 2: Greens are up to ten point five percent, and Said

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Speaker 2: First down to nine point seven percent, Act up to

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Speaker 2: seven point five percent and Tipatimori up to three point

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Speaker 2: two percent. This all means that if an election was

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Speaker 2: held today, the center left bloc could form the next government,

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Speaker 2: although by a pretty small margin. The situation is being

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Speaker 2: compared to National's performance in the twenty twenty election, where

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Speaker 2: the party suffered one of the worst election losses in

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Speaker 2: its history. Today on the front Page, Zaid Herald political

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Speaker 2: editor Thomas Coglan is with us to break down.

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Speaker 1: What the numbers mean and who could be on the

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Speaker 1: chopping block.

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Speaker 2: Thomas tell me about why this poll might be different

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Speaker 2: to others.

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Speaker 3: A couple of reasons This poll is the worst poll

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Speaker 3: from a major pulse that we've seen for the National Party.

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Speaker 3: Is the worst that they have had since mister Blackson

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Speaker 3: has been leader. It's the worst of hair darn since

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Speaker 3: Stuart Collins has predecessor his leader. It's incredibly low for

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Speaker 3: a party in government. My understanding is that it's the

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Speaker 3: lowest a National Party has ever polled whilst in government

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Speaker 3: since the late nineteen nineties when Junior Shipley got a

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Speaker 3: similar number. So it is incredibly low. Now the political

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Speaker 3: environment has changed a little bit. The government the National

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Speaker 3: parties in coalition with actor New Zealand First, and that

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Speaker 3: means that just structurally the National Party is probably going

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Speaker 3: to be polling at a lower number then National was

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Speaker 3: polling when John Key was Prime Minister and National was

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Speaker 3: the main I mean government, So that is just a

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Speaker 3: struggle change there is probably taking place. That's said, even

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Speaker 3: taking into them into account twenty eight percent around it

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Speaker 3: is a is an incredibly no low number and it

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Speaker 3: does come on the back of a terrible beak for

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Speaker 3: the Prime Minister. Everyone. That's basically the opinion of everyone.

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Speaker 3: Nicola Willis even went on z B and said that

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Speaker 3: it hadn't been a great week for the Prime Minister.

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Speaker 3: She could have said it hadn't been a great week

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Speaker 3: for the National Party. That she chose to say the

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Speaker 3: Prime minister, So everyone acknowledges it's been. It is interesting

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Speaker 3: and everyone acknowledges that. I think the real thing that

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Speaker 3: did it was his response to that question about the

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Speaker 3: American action in Iran. He said New Zealand supported any

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Speaker 3: actions it was him against the Iranian regime, obviously a

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Speaker 3: very horrible regime that New Zealand does actually support taking

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Speaker 3: many actions against. We do support taking many actions against

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Speaker 3: the Iranian regime. We've sanctioned and participated in sections against them.

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Speaker 3: But we do not support any actions against the Iranian regime,

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Speaker 3: which is the distinction. And when Chrystoper Latin was asked

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Speaker 3: about whether we'd support Carver bombing, for instance, he totally

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Speaker 3: fumbled his answer, and that was sort of thing is

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Speaker 3: pretty disastrous because obviously Carver bombing is widely accepted to

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Speaker 3: be a war crime, and obviously it shouldn't be that

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Speaker 3: difficult to say that New Zealand opposes war crimes because

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Speaker 3: we do. It's just a bipartisan thing of of of

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Speaker 3: of of New Zealand politics, that we're opposed to war

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Speaker 3: crimes SMD, most countries are, and there's an ability to

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Speaker 3: articulate articulate A simple position on that was was pretty

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Speaker 3: roundly panned.

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Speaker 2: Do you think that the corporate speak and the kind

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Speaker 2: of fumbling through questions with pre rittian responses and phrases

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Speaker 2: have has really tripped him up this time because I

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Speaker 2: feel like you can go through a normal press conference

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Speaker 2: or a normal post cab by doing that, but when

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Speaker 2: it comes to, like you said, geopolitical tensions in the

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Speaker 2: Middle East and the fact that you either do support

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Speaker 2: or you don't support a war crime, that's really tripping

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Speaker 2: him up.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think that that is one of the things

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Speaker 3: that's significant as well, which is just the thing that

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Speaker 3: there is a war in the Middle East is a

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Speaker 3: very serious one of the most serious foreign policy challenges

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Speaker 3: that this government has faced, or many governments will will

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Speaker 3: leave a face and there's an ability to kind of

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Speaker 3: Speaker's way talk his way through those challenges is really

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Speaker 3: quite remarkable, and it's a massive problem for him as

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Speaker 3: a leader. You have to be comfortable in that foreignera space,

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Speaker 3: and I think when you watched him on Monday, struggle

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Speaker 3: there and you think about other prime ministers that were

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Speaker 3: paidops just doing famously was it was a very good

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Speaker 3: sort of communicator of difficult issues and it shows It

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Speaker 3: showed that the wide gulf between his ability to sort

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Speaker 3: of explain his positioning on things and other time minister's

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Speaker 3: ability to do the same thing. It is not an

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Speaker 3: easy thing to do, but it certainly didn't have to

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Speaker 3: be as hard as eat as he made it look.

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Speaker 3: On Monday, do.

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Speaker 4: You think on twenty eight percent people are there in

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Speaker 4: the caucus of the asking questions about your leader.

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Speaker 5: No. I think what we're focused on is, yep, you're

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Speaker 5: going to ask the question today. Are you're feeling happy?

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Speaker 5: And a lot of people are still feeling like life

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Speaker 5: is very tough, very different question when you get to

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Speaker 5: the elections, because when you get to the election, you've

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Speaker 5: got a choice.

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Speaker 3: Do you want these.

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Speaker 1: Guys or do you want those guys?

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Speaker 4: Why we're voting for Winston. He's in government with you

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Speaker 4: and he's mister popular.

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Speaker 5: Well, you know, things come and go, not don't worry

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Speaker 5: about that. Well Luxon, No, no, he won't be going anyway.

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Speaker 5: He's doing very good job.

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Speaker 4: Okay, So you're support them one hundred percent of the election.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Now people might be hearing about this being compared.

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Speaker 2: To the blue blood bath of twenty twenty with Judith

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Speaker 2: Collins at the Helm. Why might we be striking those comparisons.

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Speaker 3: Because if this poll were repeated on an election day,

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Speaker 3: and Nichola Willis again used to the MB interview this

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Speaker 3: morning on Nick Mills's show to say that these numbers

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Speaker 3: would be unacceupitable if they were repeated on polling day. Basically,

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Speaker 3: if they were repeated on polling day, you'd be seeing

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Speaker 3: one of the worst National Party defeats in its history.

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Speaker 3: The twenty twenty result was twenty five point five something

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Speaker 3: and this obviously number is about twenty eight slightly higher

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Speaker 3: than twenty eight, is about two and a half to

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Speaker 3: three points higher than that twenty twenty result. That twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty result was the second worst result of the National

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Speaker 3: Party have ever told I have ever notched up in

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Speaker 3: its entire history, which is more than eighty years old

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Speaker 3: the National Party. So it is an incredibly bad result.

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Speaker 3: It would be an incredibly bad result for the National Party.

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Speaker 3: You would see it was the enormous numbers of MPs

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Speaker 3: lose their jobs, which is why there's also significant because

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Speaker 3: those EMPs will be looking at that pole and thinking, right,

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Speaker 3: should I participate in rolling the leader in order to

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Speaker 3: save my skin? Because at the moment on this currentcy pole,

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Speaker 3: then I am out the job. So that is why

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Speaker 3: it's it's significant. I think also though, you have to

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Speaker 3: peer it with that Monday afternoon part in post care,

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Speaker 3: and you have to peer it with with his wider

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Speaker 3: inability to explain himself. Because if you were a if

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Speaker 3: you're a backbeach gingp and you were thinking, right, do

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Speaker 3: I do I participate in this coud, you'd be looking

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Speaker 3: at You'd be looking at those those public place and

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Speaker 3: events of the prime Minister and probably questioning his ability

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Speaker 3: to lead the party to to beat her polling in

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Speaker 3: the future.

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Speaker 2: Do you think that Christopher Luxon has the ability to

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Speaker 2: admit that he is not the one that is to

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Speaker 2: be at the helm come election time? Do you think

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Speaker 2: he would actually resign as leader?

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Speaker 3: A smooth question. I honestly haven't acclude. I'll be very honest,

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Speaker 3: I don't know. It is just that is something that

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Speaker 3: will be very deeply personal for him, and it was

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Speaker 3: really anyone gets us to where that he will make

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Speaker 3: that decision. He's certainly an ambitious person, a very ambitious

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Speaker 3: person who's gone through a lot of difficulty to get

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Speaker 3: to the job that he has achieved. It is the

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Speaker 3: great spinnacle of Korea, and one would imagine that he

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Speaker 3: wouldn't give it up lightly, because once we give it up,

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Speaker 3: it's neither ether ether unspect a game.

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Speaker 2: Well, I was only asking that because I was looking

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Speaker 2: around this morning and I was thinking what was Labor

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Speaker 2: polling out at when Andrew Little resigned ahead of the

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Speaker 2: twenty seventeen election. They were polling it around twenty three,

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Speaker 2: twenty four, famously handing over the leadership to j Cindra Adern,

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Speaker 2: who then picked up those numbers by the end of

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Speaker 2: the month up into the mid forties. So is the

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Speaker 2: problem here, though, really that there is no one there's

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Speaker 2: no dis cinder in the wings.

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Speaker 3: For national there is an obvious center in the wings.

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Speaker 3: And I think I think just Ender doing sort of

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Speaker 3: casts a bit of a shadow over New Zealand politics

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Speaker 3: because I think for many years now into the future,

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Speaker 3: when never a party conforming, poor League will always be

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Speaker 3: looking for the just Cender. And what may Juster doing

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Speaker 3: special is that is that there really was only one

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Speaker 3: Just Cender, you know, even even John Key, who was

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Speaker 3: the only politician in recent times it was of similar popularity.

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Speaker 3: Was quite a different as parts of the leaders to

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Speaker 3: the leadership was much more obvious. I mean, he achieved

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Speaker 3: the leadership sooner, but it was a much clearer part

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Speaker 3: that he hadn't, rather than the sort of just Cender,

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Speaker 3: which was almost like flicking on the light switch, switching

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Speaker 3: all of a sudden she was there and the polling

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Speaker 3: was good. There is no Just Cender in the National

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Speaker 3: Party at the moment, but that doesn't mean that that

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Speaker 3: there won't be a change. But there's no obvious candidate

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Speaker 3: and that probably does help mister luxm stay in this position.

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Speaker 3: But it is more there are other challenges with There

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Speaker 3: are mainly the fact that actually mainly the fact that

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Speaker 3: the National government is the governments.

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Speaker 6: The Prime Minister has had a challenging week and I

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Speaker 6: actually respect him being vulnerable enough to say, well, actually

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Speaker 6: I must spoke during the week, and there has been

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Speaker 6: a lot of focus on that. I always think it's

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Speaker 6: good when people do admit they didn't get something quite right.

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Speaker 6: We are living in a very complex and difficult time

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Speaker 6: and he is being asked to give yes no answers

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Speaker 6: to questions that are pretty subtle, have a lot of complexity,

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Speaker 6: and he hasn't been able to give yes no answers.

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Speaker 6: In the media obviously have highlighted that, and he's admitted

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Speaker 6: that he spoke on an occasion. So I don't think

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Speaker 6: it's been a great week for the Prime minister.

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Speaker 2: So Winston Peters has described the poll as not good

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Speaker 2: but not the end of the world. You can see

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Speaker 2: why the Nats but also their coalition partners might be

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Speaker 2: a little bit more optimistic than most. I heard Judith

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Speaker 2: Collins on Herold Now this morning as well saying that, look,

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Speaker 2: there are other things happening around in the world. Now,

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Speaker 2: it's a difficult time, et cetera, et cetera. But do

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Speaker 2: you think that everyone in Parliament feels this way, And

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Speaker 2: you mentioned the back benches before as well, they be

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Speaker 2: really scratching their heads at this point.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they will be on those numbers. National would lose

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Speaker 3: a lot of seats and that could mean that could

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Speaker 3: mean a large hundred MPs without the job, could be

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Speaker 3: senior in peace without the job, and they would also

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Speaker 3: struggle for list placings. Now Paul Goldsmith is on the list.

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Speaker 3: He's a senior MP. Nicola Willis is on the list.

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Speaker 3: She's the National Public Deputy. Chris Bishop as in a

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Speaker 3: marginal seat huts out on Twitter Nationals on twenty eight percent.

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Speaker 3: It probably lose that seat and he'd had to get

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Speaker 3: them on the list. So there's a senior in piece

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Speaker 3: who could really struggle to find a job coming to

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Speaker 3: and that does create instability.

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Speaker 2: Now, there were whisperings of a possible coup last year,

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Speaker 2: late last year.

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Speaker 1: Actually, what do you make of them? And will the

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Speaker 1: whisperings slowly get louder this year.

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Speaker 2: After this pole?

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Speaker 3: Well, assumainly, I don't think this pole is going to

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Speaker 3: help all the springs, but it is example whether it

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Speaker 3: would make them worse. I was here when when the

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Speaker 3: Simon Bridges, Todd Malla Judith Colin's kind of situation happened,

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Speaker 3: and they were very slow moving things, and and then

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Speaker 3: and then it all and then it all, it all

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Speaker 3: sort of ticks off, I think. So there's that famous

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Speaker 3: Hemingway quote about how someone goes broke, they go broke

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Speaker 3: slowly and then suddenly, So what do.

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Speaker 2: You make of Nikola Willis's comments about this poll and

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Speaker 2: the wording I suppose.

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Speaker 3: I think I think it shows that everyone acknowledges that

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Speaker 3: beings a very pretty bad but I think you know,

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Speaker 3: you can read those those remarks out of way. She

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Speaker 3: acknowledges that it's been a bad week, which is realistic,

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Speaker 3: but also there's tough all run the loot, so so

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Speaker 3: really it feels like it's when you thing can happen.

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Speaker 1: What is the significance of this being a Courier pole?

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Speaker 3: So Curier is the National Putn's pulse and it has

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Speaker 3: been the National Party's pulster for a long time. They

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Speaker 3: also do the national part of internal polls, so this

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Speaker 3: is a textpayers Union Curier pulse. It's separate. But because

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Speaker 3: the SECURIA does the National Party internal pulse, you can

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Speaker 3: you can bet that the polls that the National Party

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Speaker 3: gets internally their internal poles that they used to make

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Speaker 3: the decision that are very similar to these numbers. And

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Speaker 3: that's what MPCE has been telling me, that their internal

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Speaker 3: numbers are very similar.

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Speaker 2: What else have mp has been telling you? And generally

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Speaker 2: I guess from from a from an audience perspective and

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Speaker 2: for someone who doesn't actually isn't in the beehive every

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Speaker 2: day like you are, because there are good relationships between

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Speaker 2: journalists and MPs and their officers and everything as well. Hey,

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Speaker 2: how much actually actual talking goes on before one of

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Speaker 2: these poles come out.

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Speaker 3: Well, you know, we talk to the EMPs all the time,

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Speaker 3: We have we give, we talk about a number of

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Speaker 3: things all the time. It's sort of the job of

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Speaker 3: the gallery journalists to keep those channels of communication open

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Speaker 3: and just to listen to what MPs are saying about

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Speaker 3: what this happening in parlierment and certainly in ps m

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Speaker 3: ps no one thinks this as a good pole. But

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Speaker 3: this is quite clearly not but but but the view

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Speaker 3: from the MPs that I've spoken to, which is a

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Speaker 3: large nunder of MPs. But but you know, you can't

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Speaker 3: ring around all of them. That the view from the

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Speaker 3: MPs is that is that it really is a case

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Speaker 3: for chrystoph laxing to decide their own the future, and

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Speaker 3: not a case fuller rolling him because obviously he is

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Speaker 3: the prime minister, it is an election year and actually

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Speaker 3: rolling him and wielding the knife a big, quite significant step.

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Speaker 3: So the question is whether he comes to the conclusion

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Speaker 3: that he can no longer go on. But there is

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Speaker 3: you know, there is a There is quite a big

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Speaker 3: thing to think about, and it's not there that he

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Speaker 3: is doing at apartment. He's been silent, he's not public

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Speaker 3: basing today. We don't know whether he's weighing up his

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Speaker 3: future today or whether he's just enjoying a nice Friday

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Speaker 3: somewhere with his family.

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Speaker 1: Noah, really, thanks for joining us, Thomas, no worries.

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Speaker 3: Have good weekend.

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Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of the Front Page.

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Speaker 2: You can read more about today's stories and extensive news

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Speaker 2: coverage at enzidhrald dot co dot enz The Front Page

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Speaker 2: is hosted and produced by me Chelsea Daniels. Caine Dickie

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Speaker 2: is our studio operator, Richard Martin, our producer and.

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Speaker 1: Editor, and our executive producer is Jane Ye. Follow the

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Speaker 1: Front Page on the iheartapp or wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: and join us next time for another look beyond the headlines.