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Speaker 1: Like we predicted for you yesterday. The US market's got

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Speaker 1: the jitters today, this after Donald Trump's comments about the

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Speaker 1: economy refused to rull out of recession. Wall Street worst

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Speaker 1: day for twenty twenty five so far, S and P

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Speaker 1: five hundred down two point seven, NASDAK down four. Here

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Speaker 1: in Australia and New Zealand, we were down. The NZEX

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Speaker 1: fifty the ASEX two hundred, both down point eight percent.

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Speaker 1: Brad Olsen is Informetric's principal economist. He's with me now, hey, Brad,

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Speaker 1: good evening. Is this an overreaction do you reckon or

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Speaker 1: a real concern?

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Speaker 2: I think it's some pretty valid concerns coming out of

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Speaker 2: the US. And really this is just condensing all of

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Speaker 2: that risk, all of that worry, all of that uncertainty

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Speaker 2: that's been coming through. When you know, the president is

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Speaker 2: asked directly, are we on track for a recession and

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Speaker 2: he doesn't immediately say no, we're not. I think that's

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Speaker 2: a pretty strong signal to investors, and certainly that's how

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Speaker 2: the market's taken it. That Actually the worry from the

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Speaker 2: new US president over how people's stocks do, how the

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Speaker 2: markets are going, how the economy is going he's willing

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Speaker 2: to sort of give that up, and he's showing that

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Speaker 2: that's already happening. So I think people have been sort

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Speaker 2: of wavering. If you look at where the markets were

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Speaker 2: after Trump was elected, there was a real sort of

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Speaker 2: rally that came through an expectation there was a lot

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Speaker 2: of growth possibly coming forward, and everyone sort of ignored

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Speaker 2: the negatives. But I think there's been something like three

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Speaker 2: point four trillion US dollars that's been wiped off since

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Speaker 2: you know, those some of those higher points have come through,

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Speaker 2: So you are now into a position where I think

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Speaker 2: people are really going, look, we're just not sure what

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Speaker 2: the fundamentals of growth in the US economy are. Of course,

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Speaker 2: how the US economy goes has implications for global growth, exports,

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Speaker 2: and everything else, which is why our markets and the

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Speaker 2: Asian markets have also taken a dive. Long story short,

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Speaker 2: no one's quite sure where they're making money in the

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Speaker 2: short term from.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and it is a concern for I mean, I

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Speaker 1: was saying last night that forget about Hipkins, Luckson's biggest

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Speaker 1: problem or biggest political opponent is actually Trump, because he

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Speaker 1: could potentially put the kibosh on our growth plans, right.

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Speaker 1: I mean that is a real risk, absolutely.

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Speaker 2: And given that, you know the focus of our sort

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Speaker 2: of trade growth over the last year or two has

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Speaker 2: been a lot more around the US economy. You know,

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Speaker 2: that was an area that did quite well for US,

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Speaker 2: but it's now in a much shakier position. I think

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Speaker 2: also it doesn't help the economic tone. You know, economists

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Speaker 2: in New Zealand and to be fair, across the world

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Speaker 2: have talked about some of those greenish shoots starting to

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Speaker 2: show through this year. Some of those better economic numbers.

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Speaker 2: Really hard to convince people that that's actually coming through

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Speaker 2: when all they're reading about is that the markets are

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Speaker 2: losing money. If they do go and check their kei

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Speaker 2: we saver or you know they're investing account at showing

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Speaker 2: a bit of a blood bath there. I mean, none

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Speaker 2: of those numbers are easy to comprehend, and I think

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Speaker 2: it does just put the jitters amongst not only the markets,

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Speaker 2: but actual real households going, well, look, I'm putting my

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Speaker 2: money into these investments. I'm a little bit worried. I

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Speaker 2: do think it's important that people realize that there always

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Speaker 2: is quite a lot of volatility in the numbers that

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Speaker 2: sort of the nature of the stock market and less

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Speaker 2: you're really good at putting three phones to her ears

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Speaker 2: and yelling into all of them like they do at

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Speaker 2: the New York Stock Exchange. You probably shouldn't be too worried.

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Speaker 2: You shouldn't be thinking about those sort of day's day variations.

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Speaker 2: You should be hopefully thinking about it for the long term,

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Speaker 2: but assessing your risk because let's be clear, this risk tone,

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Speaker 2: this worry, this volatility, it's not going away anytime soon.

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Speaker 1: Brad, thank you for that. Brad Olsen and the metrics

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Speaker 1: principle economist on News Talks.

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