1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,640 Speaker 1: So we end the week with the softer than hopeful 2 00:00:01,720 --> 00:00:03,920 Speaker 1: GDP read in a war that makes petrol essentral part 3 00:00:03,960 --> 00:00:06,480 Speaker 1: of our budgets these days. Nicola Willis, Finance Minister, back 4 00:00:06,480 --> 00:00:09,680 Speaker 1: with us. Good morning, Good morning, Mike. How disappointed with 5 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:10,960 Speaker 1: zero point two? Are you? 6 00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:15,200 Speaker 2: Well? I would always have preferred a higher growth number, 7 00:00:15,280 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 2: But what I am pleased to see is that growth 8 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,319 Speaker 2: was sustained over a number of quarters last year, and 9 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 2: that means we're in a stronger position coming into this 10 00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:25,760 Speaker 2: current set of very challenging events than we might have been. 11 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 1: Tourism, tourism's good. What's you read on tourism at the 12 00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:32,239 Speaker 1: moment as it sort of offsets the heavy lifting that 13 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:34,519 Speaker 1: dairy and experts and stuff have been doing in that 14 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:37,479 Speaker 1: department and this anemic dollar of ours? Is there some 15 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 1: hope there? Do you think? 16 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 2: But there is some hope. On the one hand, there's 17 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:44,559 Speaker 2: the obvious challenge that with jet fuel prices going up 18 00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:46,880 Speaker 2: that makes the affairs more expensive. On the other hand, 19 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:49,159 Speaker 2: could there be a safer place in the world to 20 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:52,279 Speaker 2: come right now than New Zealand? And actually we will 21 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 2: look like an attractive destination for many travelers around the 22 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 2: world who will be looking for places they can come 23 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 2: that don't involve going through the Middle EA easton that 24 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 2: they can be guaranteed they won't be missiles flowing over 25 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:02,960 Speaker 2: their heads. 26 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 1: Barbara Edmonds had a crack at you yesterday, and I 27 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 1: would have too if I was her. Rbcays zero point five, 28 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:11,560 Speaker 1: you delivered zero point two. Are you not very good 29 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:12,199 Speaker 1: at your job? 30 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:18,480 Speaker 2: Well? No, Obviously, quarterly forecasts and GDP notoriously bump around 31 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 2: a bit. What we've always said is if we get 32 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 2: the conditions right, will get sustained growth. We have had 33 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 2: sustained growth for three quarters and we are fixing the 34 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 2: underlying conditions that will allow for faster growth in the future. 35 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 2: That's why we're doing the investment bost tax credit, that's 36 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 2: why we're replacing the ROMA, that's why we're educating our 37 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 2: kids better. That's why we're signing free trade agreements. So 38 00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:40,560 Speaker 2: if Barbara Edmonds had an actual set of ideas for 39 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 2: what she would have done to grow the economy faster, 40 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 2: I'd be listening. But I haven't heard those ideas yet. 41 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 1: Read the help for petrol. It feels clunky to me. 42 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:50,080 Speaker 1: So you've gone and asked the IID to come up 43 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 1: with something. This tax credit thing is that a bit clunky. 44 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 1: Would you like to do it differently if you could, 45 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:54,720 Speaker 1: but maybe you can't. 46 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 2: Well, I face three three issues. The first is, of 47 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:00,559 Speaker 2: course I'm worried about the pressure on the cost of living, 48 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 2: but number two, I don't want to drive more inflation 49 00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 2: through a huge spend up, so I can't provide relief 50 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:10,359 Speaker 2: to everyone. And three, I am conscious of New Zealand's 51 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:12,880 Speaker 2: debt and borrowing position because we're living in a world 52 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 2: where globally people are asking people to pay higher interest 53 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 2: rates on debt, so I've got to be very careful. 54 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 2: So what we're looking at is who are the people 55 00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 2: who are working, who are on really load of middle incomes, 56 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 2: who are feeling very squeezed by the current pressures, and 57 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 2: what's the way we could provide targeted relief to them, 58 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:35,839 Speaker 2: because if we do a blanket intervention, frankly, that could 59 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 2: drive inflation worse and it would add in a dangerous 60 00:02:38,200 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 2: way to our debt position. Yeah. 61 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:41,960 Speaker 1: I get all of that, but you ran into an 62 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:43,800 Speaker 1: element of trouble with I can't even remember what you 63 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:45,800 Speaker 1: call it, the so many welfare payments in this country, 64 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:48,000 Speaker 1: but was it family boost or whatever your tax credit 65 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:50,079 Speaker 1: and have you got three kids and you work twelve 66 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:51,880 Speaker 1: hours or whatever it was and know and applied for 67 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 1: it and it was a shambles. Is that the same 68 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:56,639 Speaker 1: sort of mechanism that you're looking to run this time? Potentially? 69 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:01,360 Speaker 2: No. I am into doing something that is simple and 70 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 2: that we know will work and we'll get to the 71 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:06,000 Speaker 2: right bank accounts on time. And that is the core 72 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 2: criteria against which we're judging proposals. I'm very keen that 73 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 2: this be simple and it work well, and frankly that 74 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:16,640 Speaker 2: it ends up in cash in people's bank accounts, because 75 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:19,360 Speaker 2: that gives people the most flexibility. People have a range 76 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:21,320 Speaker 2: of circumstances, are affected in a range of way. 77 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 1: But do they have to fill out paperwork? Is my question? 78 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 2: Well, my desire is no paperwork. 79 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:29,920 Speaker 1: Okay. So and as you sit here talking to me 80 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 1: this Friday morning, the chances of some mechanism happening is 81 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 1: what in percentage terms. 82 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 2: Well, that depends on the deliberations of our cabinet. But 83 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 2: I am ready in the sense that I have sought 84 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 2: the advice from IID and the Treasury so that we 85 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 2: have a good option in front of us. 86 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 1: As a cabinet, Are you working this group of yours? 87 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 1: Are you working to specific time frame scenarios in other words, 88 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 1: week three, four, five, six, etc. 89 00:03:56,480 --> 00:03:58,920 Speaker 2: What we're working too is what are the trigger points 90 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 2: that would tell us actually it's time to start preparing 91 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 2: for a worst case scenario. And that's actually about are 92 00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 2: we going to have challenges getting refined fuel? Because the 93 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 2: issue is not so much what's happening with the crude 94 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 2: oil price. Of course that's impacting people at the pump massively, 95 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:19,839 Speaker 2: but can we get diesel in petrol and jet fuel 96 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 2: out of refineries or are we going to have problems 97 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 2: with those orders? And that's why I'm meeting with the 98 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:25,920 Speaker 2: fuel importers today. 99 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:29,279 Speaker 1: And you're not there yet? And are they there yet? 100 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 1: And why would there be a problem given eighty to 101 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 1: eighty five percent of the world is still available to us. 102 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:37,120 Speaker 2: We're not there yet. We've got plenty of fuel here 103 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 2: on the way. 104 00:04:37,880 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, I get that part, but we're beyond that. We're 105 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 1: beyond that now, we've got petrol here and there's more 106 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 1: on the water. We've heard all that. Let's move the 107 00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:45,880 Speaker 1: conversation forward. Are you at the point where you've got 108 00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 1: the next lot of shipment locked in. 109 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:52,359 Speaker 2: There are shipments locked in for several weeks ahead, but 110 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:55,000 Speaker 2: they don't put their orders in months and months ahead, 111 00:04:55,040 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 2: So we're looking ahead to that and what we know 112 00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 2: in South Korea, for example, as they've said that they're 113 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 2: going to require their refineries to prioritize domestic consumption, that 114 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:07,440 Speaker 2: they want to have ninety percent of domestic consumption met 115 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 2: before they do any experts. So depending on how much 116 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:13,239 Speaker 2: crude they can refine, that could create a limitation in future. 117 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 2: And we know in the case of Singapore that they 118 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:19,839 Speaker 2: are refining less fuel than they typically have, significantly less, 119 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 2: which of course raises questions for the future about how 120 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:25,200 Speaker 2: well they'll be able to fulfill orders. Of course, fuel 121 00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:27,839 Speaker 2: importers will look around the world for other sources of 122 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:29,359 Speaker 2: fuel if they're not able to get it out of 123 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:33,839 Speaker 2: their normal refiners, but there's still an open question about 124 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 2: how easy that will be and whether that will lead 125 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:38,359 Speaker 2: to delays. So that's why we're working closely with the 126 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:41,240 Speaker 2: fuel industry to get a sense of Okay, when do 127 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 2: you think the crunch points could be and what do 128 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 2: we do then? 129 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 1: What was lux on about Russian oil or South Korea 130 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:49,279 Speaker 1: goes and buys Russian oil, who cares well. 131 00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:54,040 Speaker 2: Our current sanctions regime is focused on the refined product 132 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:57,880 Speaker 2: rather than where the fuel stock was received from. So 133 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:00,400 Speaker 2: what that means is that at the moment, it wouldn't 134 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 2: be a problem if those Southeast Asian refineries were sourcing 135 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:07,680 Speaker 2: crude oil from a range of different nations. That wouldn't 136 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 2: affect New Zealand's ability to. 137 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 1: Oh the irony, Nicolay, what a wacky old world in 138 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:15,080 Speaker 1: which we live. 139 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:18,359 Speaker 2: Well, you know, I wish we were living in a 140 00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 2: world where there wasn't a conflict in the Middle East 141 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:25,240 Speaker 2: in which people were dying, the global oil price was spiking, 142 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:28,720 Speaker 2: and challenges getting refined products were massive. I wish we 143 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:30,800 Speaker 2: weren't living in that world, but we are, so we 144 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:32,120 Speaker 2: deal with what's in front of us. 145 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 1: What's your trigger point for buying an ev personally. 146 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 2: Well, personally, that's not something we've contemplated as a family. 147 00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:44,800 Speaker 2: If we were going to replace one of our family vehicles, 148 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:46,920 Speaker 2: then at that point I think we'd think pretty hard 149 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 2: about it. But look, we drive our cars till they 150 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 2: just about dead, and I'm not a big car person. 151 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 2: I'd prefer to spend out discretionary on holidays. But I 152 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 2: recognize that people are buying events. They've been extremely popular 153 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:02,279 Speaker 2: and I think that demand has been going up hugely, 154 00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:04,360 Speaker 2: and I think that's really positive to see because people 155 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:06,919 Speaker 2: are controlling their own lives. They're saying, well, actually, I 156 00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:08,800 Speaker 2: don't want to be exposed to the petrol price, and 157 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:11,320 Speaker 2: they're making what for them is a good decision. So 158 00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 2: it's not about me and my choices. It's about what 159 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 2: suits are the kiwis, and you know, I celebrate the 160 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:17,880 Speaker 2: fact that lots of them are wanting to buy an 161 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:18,720 Speaker 2: EV all right, you have. 162 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:21,400 Speaker 1: A good weekend, Nicola willis fine, it's Minister for more 163 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:24,559 Speaker 1: from the my Casking Breakfast. Listen live to news talks. 164 00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:27,760 Speaker 2: It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast 165 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:28,680 Speaker 2: on iHeartRadio.