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Speaker 1: Ever, dup c Ellen right, So to the Trump trading. Now,

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Speaker 1: these things are still writing. The Trump trades are still

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Speaker 1: riding high. A week on from the US election. Some

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Speaker 1: of the initial euphoria show signs of wearing off. A

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Speaker 1: question of course, is now how sustainable all of the

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Speaker 1: stuff is? And Sam Dickey from Fisher Funds is with

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Speaker 1: us right now. Sam, hello to you.

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Speaker 2: Hello.

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Speaker 1: So Sam, run me through who the in your eyes,

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Speaker 1: initially who the winners and losers of the Trump's trades were.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we're not We're not through Rinston Trump yet, I hope,

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Speaker 2: but the winners initially with the US in general. So

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Speaker 2: it does feel like there's an enormous sucking sound on

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Speaker 2: equity markets around the world, and all this money is

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Speaker 2: flown out of global equity markets into the US equity

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Speaker 2: So now U s equities are up five percent and

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Speaker 2: Europe's down two in China found five, so that's sort

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Speaker 2: of seven to ten percent out performance in a few

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Speaker 2: days is pretty rare. And then the US dollars its

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Speaker 2: been a clear winner, appreciating against all comers really, and

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Speaker 2: then within the US it's kind of domestic facing, make

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Speaker 2: America great. US sectors were the initial winners. So steel

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Speaker 2: companies up thirteen percent, US trucking companies up ten. Of course,

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Speaker 2: big banks up ten percent, but perceived losers still are

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Speaker 2: bonds or a loser. People are selling bonds and sold

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Speaker 2: the companies was at abound ten or fifteen percent.

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Speaker 1: How sustainable do you think these moves are?

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Speaker 2: Well? I mean if we sort of pick on say

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Speaker 2: four of those asset classes, and we start with steel stocks,

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Speaker 2: because they are super interesting. They did rep high initially,

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Speaker 2: so everyone expected the first tariff he would throw on

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Speaker 2: China will be steel like in twenty sixteen, twenty seventeen. Now,

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Speaker 2: but what's super interesting is the steel stocks are now

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Speaker 2: back below where they were before Noald Trump was elected.

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Speaker 2: And what's happening there is, of course, is there's unintended

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Speaker 2: consequences of all of this. First and foremost by the

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Speaker 2: way he may not put these tariffs on. Secondly, if

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Speaker 2: you put a tariff on Chinese steel steel exports, that

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Speaker 2: drives up you u as steel prices. And I don't

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Speaker 2: think anyone in the US is buying stealers suddenly, say ten, fifteen,

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Speaker 2: twenty percent wealthyer and can afford that and see only

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Speaker 2: kind of what goes around comes around in any anti

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Speaker 2: China policy which impacts the Chinese economy, You've got to

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Speaker 2: remember that the biggest buyer of steel globally is China.

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Speaker 2: They have ten times the demand that the US have

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Speaker 2: some of these reflective second round impacts. And I guess

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Speaker 2: if we yes, no, no, no, no, I'm just going to stay.

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Speaker 2: If you go to the I mean US banks for

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Speaker 2: exhumble giant banks like JP Morgan up ten percent, talking

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Speaker 2: less regulation. So for everyone you regulation your acts ten

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Speaker 2: But if you go to the sort of slightly less

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Speaker 2: fundamental end of the spectrum, you know, Tesla, baskets of

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Speaker 2: unprofitable tech companies and Bitcoin all up almost exactly the

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Speaker 2: same amount, say twenty five to thirty percent, And that

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Speaker 2: tells me there's a lot of retail animal spirits at play.

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Speaker 2: So recall he was super pro bitcoin. But what I

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Speaker 2: find most remarkable of the Tesla move so Trump has

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Speaker 2: made the lelon. But that's a very valuable friendship. It's

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Speaker 2: worth quarter of a trillion dollars to Tesla's market cap.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, totally. Do you think the dusters, I mean, it's

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Speaker 1: it's probably too early for the dust to completely have settled.

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Speaker 2: Right, I think so yes, we'll see which tariffy rolls

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Speaker 2: out in which order. But I would wouldn't so much caution,

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Speaker 2: but encourage investors to look at second and third round impacts.

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Speaker 2: We think that still Stock example is a great example

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Speaker 2: that these things don't just happen in a vacuum. There

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Speaker 2: are unintended consequences. And the other thing to remember is,

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Speaker 2: you know, interest rates moving higher and ant anticipation of

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Speaker 2: a boost to you if economic growth. If that doesn't happen,

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Speaker 2: I will shift there, whether it be interest rates falling

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Speaker 2: or equities falling.

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Speaker 1: Sam, I don't want to, I mean I want you

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Speaker 1: to tell me obviously what investors should take away from this,

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Speaker 1: But would one of the things that investors wouldn't one

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Speaker 1: of the things be that you actually can't predict what

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump is going to do, and you'd be a

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Speaker 1: fool to try.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's rather again, like like we said last week,

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Speaker 2: I mean, back in twenty sixteen, everyone was convinced he

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Speaker 2: wouldn't get in, and then in the unlikely event he did,

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Speaker 2: stop my this would fall very sharply. Well, they were

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Speaker 2: wrong on both the cost last time, and here we

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Speaker 2: go again. Stop markets are predicting what he's going to do,

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Speaker 2: and he hadn't even really got to see it under

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Speaker 2: the desk, so let's wait and see.

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Speaker 1: Yeah too, right, Hey Sam, thank you for being a

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Speaker 1: cool head in all of this. Sam, Dickie Andficier funds

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Speaker 1: for more from Hither Duplessy Alan Drive.

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