1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,360 Speaker 1: Now, international markets haven't wobbled too much in the wake 2 00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:05,360 Speaker 1: of the new tariffs. The AX and a few other 3 00:00:05,400 --> 00:00:08,039 Speaker 1: Asian markets dipped, but mostly by less than a percent. 4 00:00:08,280 --> 00:00:10,240 Speaker 1: Stephen Jacobe is a former trade negotiator. 5 00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:13,240 Speaker 2: Hey, Stephen, Hi, Heather, good to be with you. 6 00:00:13,400 --> 00:00:15,160 Speaker 1: What's gone wrong for us? Do you think? 7 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:19,640 Speaker 2: Oh, I think we're at the end on the receiving 8 00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 2: end of a very large hammer that's coming down, and 9 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 2: I don't think it's probably anything to do with us. 10 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 2: It's most unfair and unjustified. You know, ten percent wasn't great. 11 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:34,159 Speaker 2: Fifteen percent is a lot worse, actually, and we'll have 12 00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 2: to see what we can do to try and get 13 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:35,839 Speaker 2: out of it. 14 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 1: Why do you say it's a lot worse. 15 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:43,960 Speaker 2: Well, because it's a much more material tariff imposition. You know, 16 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 2: ten percent was at the lower end of the scale. 17 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:51,120 Speaker 2: You know, a five percent tariff is probably neither here 18 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 2: nor there. It's often taken out by exchange rate movements. 19 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:57,960 Speaker 2: But if you're talking about fifteen percent, you're getting into 20 00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 2: quite different territory. It's going to American produced. Americans are 21 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:05,480 Speaker 2: over our you know, American producers over our ones, and 22 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:07,679 Speaker 2: of course to the extent that other people in the 23 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:11,040 Speaker 2: American market are getting better treatment than us, like Australia, 24 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:15,040 Speaker 2: like Chile. That's not good either. We have to compete 25 00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:15,800 Speaker 2: with them as well. 26 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 1: I mean, if you think about it, So the Americans 27 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 1: have a ten dollars steak, Our steak is now what 28 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:24,479 Speaker 1: eleven dollars fifty and an Australian steak is eleven dollars? 29 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:26,319 Speaker 1: Is there enough in that to make a consumer change 30 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:28,039 Speaker 1: their mind and change to a different product. 31 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:31,080 Speaker 2: Actually, in the case of the meat market, probably the 32 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:34,560 Speaker 2: beef market, probably not, because the Americans eat a lot 33 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 2: of beef and there's a lot of you know, we've 34 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:41,000 Speaker 2: still got lots of opportunity. And of course the South 35 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:43,360 Speaker 2: Americans are all being changed even more, except Chile, but 36 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 2: they're not a big exporter of beef to the United States. 37 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 2: So yeah, a lot of it depends on, you know, 38 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 2: the market segment that you're in. But remember, our this 39 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 2: is for US is now a fifteen percent additional tariff. 40 00:01:57,200 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 2: So to the extent that there's a tariff existing already 41 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 2: in the United Sis, it's like fifteen percent for butter, 42 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 2: we're now paying thirty percent. 43 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 1: Ah okay, So this this has the potential to be 44 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 1: quite bad then, doesn't it? 45 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:11,240 Speaker 2: Oh? I think it does. And you know, without wanting to, 46 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 2: you know, over dramatize. We have to see how it 47 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 2: all works out. We know that a lot of export 48 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 2: has been sharing the tariff burden with the importer. I mean, 49 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:23,600 Speaker 2: if they can pass it onto the consumer, that's fine. Well, 50 00:02:23,639 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 2: not for the consumers, but better for US. Prices go 51 00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 2: up in the United States, it's not so good for Americans. 52 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 2: If we have to share it, well, that's a bit 53 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 2: of pain. But if we have to bear it, that's 54 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:35,360 Speaker 2: quite a lot of pain. 55 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 1: Do you think, Stephen, that we should have changed the 56 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:39,680 Speaker 1: approach that we took, or perhaps we took the wrong approach. 57 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 1: I mean it seemed to be that we were pretty 58 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:44,080 Speaker 1: relaxed about it, or putting our head below the parapet 59 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 1: maybe a combination of both. Should we have done what 60 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 1: Albanesi did and made concessions or what South Korea did 61 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:50,640 Speaker 1: and offered to buy things? 62 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 2: Well, of course, so Couth's career did that, and it's 63 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:55,640 Speaker 2: still got a fifteen percent tariff. 64 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:57,239 Speaker 1: But it's down from twenty five, isn't. 65 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,959 Speaker 2: It down twenty five? Yeah? I suppose so. But look, 66 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 2: I don't think there's much more we could have done. 67 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 2: We just don't have enough to offer the United States. 68 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 2: What are we offering right now? We're offering them already 69 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 2: a market where we charge very very low tariffs. You know. 70 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 2: In the case of Australia, of course, they're a free 71 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:16,359 Speaker 2: trade partner with the United States, they have a free 72 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 2: trade agreement. It's not worth much these days, but the 73 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:24,079 Speaker 2: United States has a you know, a surplus with them. 74 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 2: We have a small deficit. So I mean, you know, 75 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:28,800 Speaker 2: I'm not sure there's a lot that we could have done. 76 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:31,560 Speaker 2: The problem is we're already offering to the United States 77 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 2: very advantage advantageous market access conditions without asking for anything 78 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 2: in return. So I just don't think there was a 79 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 2: lot to be negotiated myself. 80 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 1: What about Okay, So Tod mcclay's going to go to 81 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 1: them now and he's going to say to them, where 82 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 1: about we will get ourselves into surplus for you because 83 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 1: we're going to buy a bunch of Boeings. Will that 84 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 1: change their mind? 85 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:55,240 Speaker 2: Well? Who knows when these settings are going to be evaluated, 86 00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 2: you know, And we don't even know if this is 87 00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 2: the last word on all of this. The difficulty with 88 00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 2: going back the United States. Of course, it's going to 89 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 2: take a long time to do it, and a lot 90 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 2: of other people are going to be wanting to do 91 00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:06,960 Speaker 2: exactly the same thing. I mean, when you look at 92 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:09,119 Speaker 2: the range of countries that are now going to play 93 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 2: this fifteen percent tariff, you know, New Zealand's not quite 94 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 2: in the same position as a lot of these other ones, 95 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 2: you know, and you know, we take them. A country 96 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:20,440 Speaker 2: like Chile, a very fine country, but it hasn't done 97 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:23,240 Speaker 2: a lot, you know, in terms of defense and security 98 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:25,719 Speaker 2: cooperation hasn't been there at the founding of the United 99 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:28,040 Speaker 2: Nations and all these other things like US. I don't 100 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:31,200 Speaker 2: really know why we should be treated so badly, quite frankly, fair. 101 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:34,480 Speaker 1: Point, Stephen, Thanks very much, Stephen Jacoby, former Trade negotiated. 102 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 2: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive. Listen live to 103 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:40,799 Speaker 2: News Talk sai'd Be from four pm weekdays, or follow 104 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:42,600 Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio.