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Speaker 1: Not surprisingly we're seeing a lot of interest in dairy

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Speaker 1: farms of the conversion. To Canterbury Regional Council alone are

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Speaker 1: given the green light to thirty two new farms, it's

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Speaker 1: another twenty five thousand cows for the region. Numbers don't lie.

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Speaker 1: I mean forty percent of aariable farms make money, whereas

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Speaker 1: it's eighty one percent for dairy Calding as the Fair

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Speaker 1: Farmer's National Dairy Chair. And as with this calm morning

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Speaker 1: to you, good morning. This major historically, this conversion. Have

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Speaker 1: we seen something like this before?

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Speaker 2: Ah? I think what we have to remember is that

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Speaker 2: this isn't a large scale conversion like we've seen in

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Speaker 2: the past. This is what happens when there's been a

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Speaker 2: memorandium of land use change that's been three years pent

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Speaker 2: up demand. So now when we've had three years of

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Speaker 2: not being able to choose the best land us thirty

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Speaker 2: farms is still not going to change the livestock numbers

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Speaker 2: back to anywhere near what the peak was dairy about

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Speaker 2: ten years, won't you?

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Speaker 1: I mean, where are we at with the whole scenario?

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Speaker 1: In other words, are we are peak cow and where

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Speaker 1: the dairy market is globally and so on, or are

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Speaker 1: there just there's a massive cure of people waiting to

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Speaker 1: convert if they could.

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Speaker 2: I think peak cow in New Zealand was reached de'l

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Speaker 2: like I said, about ten years ago now, so we're

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Speaker 2: well past that point. We actually have more land use

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Speaker 2: out of dairy hectare and cow numbers than what we

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Speaker 2: do having coming into it. So this is effectively three

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Speaker 2: years with conversions or land use change. But in that

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Speaker 2: time we've had countless farms in the Northoland, some in

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Speaker 2: the Southold they've gone from dairy to horticulture, to housing,

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Speaker 2: to other uses that outside the dairy sector. So again

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Speaker 2: it's not it's not really a massive change, but it's

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Speaker 2: it's not the numbers that people are thinking it will.

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Speaker 1: Be, no indeed not. So this is Canterbury that I

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Speaker 1: gave the example of. Are there other regions in which

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Speaker 1: conversions are taking place, can take place, or will take

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Speaker 1: place like the Waycato in Southland etc.

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Speaker 2: There may be some conversions that will happen in other areas,

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Speaker 2: but again if it's not economically viable or environmentally worth

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Speaker 2: doing where you have to remember that all these farms

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Speaker 2: in Canterbury are still going to have to have a consent.

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Speaker 2: They're still going to have as much as you can, says,

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Speaker 2: it's only the discharge consent. Canterbary Land Regional Water Plan

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Speaker 2: limits discharge of not strong and the de STI have

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Speaker 2: to meet those targets. So it doesn't matter what land

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Speaker 2: usue you change it to, you still have to be

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Speaker 2: decreasing your usage.

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Speaker 1: So I know there's been pent up demand as you've explained,

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Speaker 1: but how many of them look at the market currently,

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Speaker 1: what we've gone through, the ten dollars per kilo, et cetera,

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Speaker 1: and think this is going forever versus I just wanted

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Speaker 1: to get into dary no matter.

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Speaker 2: What I think. As my colleague David pointed out that

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Speaker 2: you know, obviously Arable farmer's artmaking great money at the moment,

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Speaker 2: and the are the the other ones that have got

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Speaker 2: the irrogard land that are potentially able to convert some

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Speaker 2: to dairy. There is a much more consistant cash flow

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Speaker 2: and then you send milk every for ten months of

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Speaker 2: the year, You send a product and you get paid.

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Speaker 2: Unfortunately it doesn't work from much of the rest of

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Speaker 2: the agricultural sector.

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Speaker 1: Exactly all right, cal Nlson, So I appreciate it very much. Caldeen,

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Speaker 1: who's the Confederative Farmer's National Dairy. For more from the

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