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Speaker 1: Kyoda.

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Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a

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Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. US President

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump has reaffirmed his close relationship with North Korea's

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Speaker 2: Kim Jong un. In a meeting with South Korean President

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Speaker 2: Lee j jung, He said he hopes to meet with

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Speaker 2: Kim later this year, saying I look forward to seeing him.

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Speaker 1: We got along great.

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Speaker 2: Meanwhile, in an unusual move, Kim has recently released a

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Speaker 2: highly emotive video of a ceremony for fallen soldiers in

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Speaker 2: Pyeongyang who died fighting for Russia. So what is Kim's

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Speaker 2: game plan here and how should New Zealand proceed if

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Speaker 2: talks turn sour? Today on the Front Page, International relations

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Speaker 2: professor Robert Patman is with us to unpack the latest.

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Speaker 2: First off, Robert, Donald Trump has been touting his friendly

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Speaker 2: relationship with Kim Jong un while meeting South Korea's at

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Speaker 2: Lee j muong.

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Speaker 1: Lee asked Trump to meet with Kim. Why would this.

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Speaker 3: Be Well, that's because in his first administration, mister Trump

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Speaker 3: surprised many people by entering into correspondence with the North

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Speaker 3: Korean dictator and meeting him. Unfortunately, Although mister Trump hailed

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Speaker 3: his dialogue with the North Korean dictator. It didn't achieve

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Speaker 3: progress in getting rid of North Korea's nuclear capability, and

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Speaker 3: it did not produce progress in reducing the tension with

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Speaker 3: South Korea and North Korea. Remember, those two countries are

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Speaker 3: divided and both do not fully recognize the sovereignty of

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Speaker 3: the other. Again, mister Trump has talked up his relationship

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Speaker 3: with the North Korean dictator, but he even claimed, actually

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Speaker 3: in the recent comments, that he knew Kim johng un

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Speaker 3: better than anyone except for his sister, which is an

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Speaker 3: extraordinary claim. I'm sure the people who have to work

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Speaker 3: for the North Korean dictator on a daily basis might

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Speaker 3: be prepared to trade praiss with mister Trump. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: I mean it's an extraordinary claim, and I just think

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Speaker 3: we have to take it with a pinch of salt.

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Speaker 2: I also noted that he said something on along the

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Speaker 2: lines of we also talked about all kinds of things,

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Speaker 2: even things that we probably shouldn't have been talking about.

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Speaker 2: What do you make of Trump's being so happy to

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Speaker 2: make such a show of how great friends they are.

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Speaker 2: I mean, this is a dictator we're talking about.

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Speaker 3: Here, he was very comfortable talking to dictators. He's got

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Speaker 3: a real soft spot for Ladimir Putin, you know, which

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Speaker 3: is Vladimir Putin presides over a murderous regime which has

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Speaker 3: invaded a neighboring country, which has turned out catastrophically for

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Speaker 3: both Ukraine and Russia. So we shouldn't be surprised about that.

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Speaker 3: And he also, mister Trump likes to put the emphasis

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Speaker 3: on himself as a deal maker, you know, and that

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Speaker 3: sort of emphasis on being a deal maker ties in

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Speaker 3: with this sort of narrative that he's got special relationships

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Speaker 3: with some of the most feared people in the world,

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Speaker 3: such as Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong un. So I

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Speaker 3: think he's hyping up leverage with the North Koreans, but

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Speaker 3: there's no evidence that North Korea have actually delivered anything

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Speaker 3: in terms of substance. In terms of the relationship between

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Speaker 3: Trump and Kim Jong un, well.

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Speaker 2: Since Trump's January inauguration, Kim has apparently ignored all of

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Speaker 2: his repeated calls to revive these talks. I mean, what

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Speaker 2: are the chances of this sudden display of interest persuading

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Speaker 2: Kim to pick up the phone.

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Speaker 3: I given that he's been chipping or what he's been

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Speaker 3: trying to reactivate the dialogue. I can't see. You know,

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Speaker 3: Kim Jong un may respond, but he'll want that relationship

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Speaker 3: on his own terms. And I think he's happy to

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Speaker 3: flatter mister Trump and even have high profile meetings. But

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Speaker 3: Kim Jong un is not going to give up his

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Speaker 3: nuclear weapons for President Trump, and he's not going to

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Speaker 3: give up his claim to be the true leader of

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Speaker 3: all Korea, including South Korea. I'm not really sure what

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Speaker 3: mister Trump is hoping for. North Korea is linked to Russia.

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Speaker 3: North Korea recently provided around fifteen thousand troops for the

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Speaker 3: Russian It supported the Russian invasion of Ukraine by allowing

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Speaker 3: Russian troops to be stationed in Kirsk, which was as

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Speaker 3: a result of the Russian invasions. The Ukrainians launched a

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Speaker 3: counter invasion mini invasion of Kursk, and the North Koreans

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Speaker 3: certainly lost quite a lot of troops. About five percent

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Speaker 3: of the deployment were killed and there's about six hundred

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Speaker 3: troops and North Korea, I mean, North Korea's relationship with

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Speaker 3: Russia has bloomed mainly because Russia is pretty desperate. It

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Speaker 3: has apart from China and North Korea, it's got a

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Speaker 3: shortage of friends. And what was good from randomir Putin's

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Speaker 3: point of view that North Korea has a big army.

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Speaker 3: It wasn't battle tested, not since nineteen fifty three, but

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Speaker 3: it provided a lot of troops, and it also provided

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Speaker 3: ammunition and artillery shells, and it could provide more troops

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Speaker 3: according to speculation, but this is coming at a price.

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Speaker 3: Kim Jong un probably sees this as a lucrative relationship

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Speaker 3: because he gets a certain amount of money for every

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Speaker 3: troop each month that's deployed. We don't know the exact amount,

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Speaker 3: but it's rumored to be in the vicinity of twelve

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Speaker 3: hundred US dollars to fifteen hundred US dollars. I'm not

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Speaker 3: sure that money goes to the family's concerned, but yeah,

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Speaker 3: I mean maybe mister Trump believes by reactivating the relationship

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Speaker 3: with North Korea he might be able to weaken the

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Speaker 3: relationship between China and North Korea, but also the relationship

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Speaker 3: between Russia and North Korea. On the other hand, he

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Speaker 3: may see this as complimentary to his efforts of wooing

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Speaker 3: Russia because Russia, the administration has quite openly spoken about

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Speaker 3: a geopolitical alliance with Ladmir Putins Russia, which, as I say,

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Speaker 3: has flagrantly broken international law of its invasion of Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: And I think part of the motivation is the administration believes,

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Speaker 3: in my view mistaken that the way to undermine China's

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Speaker 3: challenge to the United States is to separate Russia and China.

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Speaker 3: But you know, the counter argument is if mister Trump

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Speaker 3: supports Vladimir Putin and once the war to be settled

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Speaker 3: on Putin's terms, that is that the Russians can keep

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Speaker 3: land they illegally stole from Ukraine, China will watch that

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Speaker 3: and see that as American weakness. They do not regard

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Speaker 3: Russia as a superpower. They see Russia for what it is,

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Speaker 3: a regional country with an economy of the size of Spain.

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Speaker 3: And so China, far from being diminished by American support

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Speaker 3: for Putin, could be emboldened by any settlement that rewarded

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Speaker 3: Putin's aggression by stepping up their own pressure in the

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Speaker 3: Indo Pacific region. And of course that's a great concern

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Speaker 3: to New Zealand, because it's no secret that we've become

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Speaker 3: concerned about Chinese assurgon of us in relation to the

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Speaker 3: Solomons and the Cook Islands.

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Speaker 1: Would you go back to the DMZ to meet with.

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Speaker 2: The North Korea leads?

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Speaker 3: I loved it.

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Speaker 4: Remember when I walked across the line and everyone went crazy,

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Speaker 4: especially Secret Service. I would say, I have a very

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Speaker 4: good relationship. I understand, and I spent a lot of

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Speaker 4: free time with them talking about things that we probably

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Speaker 4: aren't supposed to talk about. And you know, I just

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Speaker 4: I get along with them really well. I think he

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Speaker 4: has a country of great potential, tremendous.

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Speaker 1: When we talk about Kim Jong un.

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Speaker 2: For the first time, he has acknowledged the deaths of

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Speaker 2: over one hundred troops who were fighting for Russia in Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: A video of a ceremony honoring them has been released,

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Speaker 2: with an emotional looking Kim praising the fighting spirit of

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Speaker 2: the heroes. I mean, first off, how unusual is this

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Speaker 2: display from King Kim Jong un?

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Speaker 1: And secondly, why release this video?

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Speaker 3: Now that's a good question. It is unusual by North

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Speaker 3: Korean watchers say, this is a most unusual move. So

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Speaker 3: why has Kim Jong un taken this step? It may

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Speaker 3: be an attempt to articulate and demonstrate displeasure to Putin

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Speaker 3: for being excluded from the discussions that have been going

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Speaker 3: on between Russia, the United States, and the Ukraine and

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Speaker 3: the Europeans about some sort of peace settlement. I mean,

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Speaker 3: North Korea is, like Russia, pretty isolated internationally. This is

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Speaker 3: speculation in my part. None of us really know, but

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Speaker 3: there have been rumors of tension between Putin and Kim

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Speaker 3: Jong Un. I think both have an interest in downplaying

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Speaker 3: that and presenting themselves there's very close, closely aligned, but

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Speaker 3: Kim Jong un may well believe that by honoring publicly

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Speaker 3: recognizing the dead of North Koreans who fought on putinside,

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Speaker 3: it's a reminder to the Russian leadership not to take

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Speaker 3: this support for granted. There haven't been too many incidences,

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Speaker 3: of course, to compare this situation with, because North Korea

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Speaker 3: has been quite an insula state, and while it has

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Speaker 3: a large, enormous army, actually it's largely been focused on

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Speaker 3: dealing with the tensions with neighboring South Korea.

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Speaker 2: Well, North Korea does remain one of the world's most

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Speaker 2: closed societies. I mean, how important is it, especially at

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Speaker 2: a time like this, with these geopolitical tensions, that the

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Speaker 2: world remain in contact with regimes like that one well.

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Speaker 3: From Kim Jong UN's point of view, I mean, the

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Speaker 3: economy of North Korea is really struggling and has been

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Speaker 3: for a long time, and that was one of the

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Speaker 3: motivations I think for North Korea lending a helping hand

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Speaker 3: to Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine because it created economic

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Speaker 3: opportunities that it didn't have before. It was unable to

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Speaker 3: transfer a lot of aging stockpiles of military equipment that

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Speaker 3: we're not being used to Russia and get well paid

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Speaker 3: for it. And secondly, he's the regime has benefited financially

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Speaker 3: by supporting Putin's invasion by sending troops. I suppose that

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Speaker 3: Kim Jong un would like, ideally other countries to begin

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Speaker 3: to take an interest in by ending isolation. I suppose

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Speaker 3: Kim Jong un would hope that there will be opportunities

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Speaker 3: for greater investment in North Korea. But in my view,

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Speaker 3: it's a bit of a fantasy, because, yeah, I think

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Speaker 3: that there's always this problem for authoritarian regimes. They want

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Speaker 3: to remain very strict control, but that's actually inconsistent or

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Speaker 3: at a odds with having a vibrant economy, which often

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Speaker 3: involves a private sector, which they're not keen on because

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Speaker 3: they that means that their control is limited. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: I mean, but yeah, there's no doubt about it, and

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Speaker 3: it may be a way of prodding China. The interesting

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Speaker 3: China has consistently kept Kim Jong un afloat until it

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Speaker 3: signed a defense packed with Russia last year. Until that

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Speaker 3: moment last year, China had been the major ally of

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Speaker 3: North Korea, and the Chinese, I think, tolerate Kim Jong un.

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Speaker 3: They're irritated by him, particularly his mercurial style of leadership.

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Speaker 3: He sometimes ignores their advice about testing weapons and he

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Speaker 3: does his own thing. But his regime largely depends on

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Speaker 3: Chinese support for survival, and it provides both food and energy.

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Speaker 3: Why does it do that if it finds Kim Jong

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Speaker 3: un such a pain in the rear, Probably because their

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Speaker 3: nightmare scenario would be if they didn't support Kim Jong un,

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Speaker 3: the regime will collapse and that South Korea would probably

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Speaker 3: with its vibrant democracy, quickly spread to North Korea and

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Speaker 3: the country will be unified on a democratic market economy basis,

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Speaker 3: And that's what they just don't want.

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Speaker 2: Let's say Trump does get a meeting with Kim Jong un,

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Speaker 2: and they discuss de escalation measures and what if in

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Speaker 2: a world where Trump says, look sanctionally, there's talk of

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Speaker 2: sanctions relief. How would New Zealand's strict anti nuclear and

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Speaker 2: sanctions policies be affected by that, because, of course, no

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Speaker 2: business in New Zealand can do business with North Korean businesses,

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Speaker 2: for example, because of these sanctions that have been in

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Speaker 2: place for so long.

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Speaker 3: Well, I I think you know New Zealand won't be

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Speaker 3: in a hurry to activate economic contacts with North Korea.

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Speaker 3: We have a very good relationship with South Korea and

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Speaker 3: I don't think we do anything to jeopardize that. And

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Speaker 3: it's interesting that President Lee, who succeeded President Huon, the

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Speaker 3: new president, relatively new president of South Korea, has welcomed

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Speaker 3: President Trump's interest in a dialogue with Kim John Un,

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Speaker 3: because the South Korean government does want to improve relations

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Speaker 3: with North Korea, but has so far been impervious or

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Speaker 3: indifferent to South Korea's attempts to improve relations. Is no

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Speaker 3: secret that President Yun took a much more matter of

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Speaker 3: fact stance towards North Korea and didn't try and in

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Speaker 3: any way gloss over the fact that North Korea is

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Speaker 3: run by dictatorship. It may be the new government is

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Speaker 3: more pragmatic and is prepared to try to improve relations.

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Speaker 3: Is certainly showing efforts in that way, and maybe mister

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Speaker 3: Trump could be helpful in that. But as for the

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Speaker 3: reasons we've gone through, apart from atmospherics, I can't see

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Speaker 3: what can be achieved substantively. It seems to me that

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Speaker 3: South Korea and the United States would love North Korea

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Speaker 3: to get rid of their nuclear capability. But from King

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Speaker 3: John's UN's point of view, that's his ace, you know,

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Speaker 3: that's his ace in the pack. Why would he get

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Speaker 3: rid of a serious deterrent? Let's be clear. From North

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Speaker 3: Korea's point of view, and perhaps from Iran's point of view,

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Speaker 3: one of the things that deters what they see as

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Speaker 3: Western backed aggression or Western interference is the reality that

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Speaker 3: North Korea has a nuclear weapon. So they believe that's

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Speaker 3: the most important guaranteel of the dictatorship that Kim Jong

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Speaker 3: un runs. So I can't see any compromise there. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: I mean, it seems to me that there's very limited

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Speaker 3: scope for a significant improvement.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, Robert, Thank you.

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Speaker 2: That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You

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Speaker 2: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage

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Speaker 2: at enzdherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page is

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Speaker 2: produced by Jane Ye.

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Speaker 1: And Richard Martin, who is also our editor. I'm Chelsea Daniels.

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Speaker 2: Subscribe to the Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you

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Speaker 2: get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look

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Speaker 2: behind the headlines.

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Speaker 1: Okay,