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Speaker 1: Liam Dan, the Herald's business editor at largest with us

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Speaker 1: I lam good ether. Okay, so what are you expecting

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Speaker 1: for the GDP number.

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Speaker 2: Well, wouldn't have thought it would be that flash, But

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Speaker 2: looking through all the economist's forecasts, they've just they've perked

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Speaker 2: up a bit and they're all they've all upgraded their

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Speaker 2: forecast for the quarter to zero point seven percent for

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Speaker 2: the quarter, which is the same as we had in

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Speaker 2: the last quarter of twenty twenty four and which is

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Speaker 2: pretty good. So the Reserve Bank had picked zero point

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Speaker 2: four for the first quarter, and mostly the economists were

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Speaker 2: thinking the same thing. But we had some fairly good

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Speaker 2: numbers business sort of business finance and business employment numbers

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Speaker 2: on Monday, so they just they think it might be

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Speaker 2: a bit stronger. But we do have to bear in

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Speaker 2: mind that that first quarter, it seems like a long

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Speaker 2: time ago now, goes right up to Donald Trump's liberation Day,

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Speaker 2: but not you know, doesn't capture how everyone was feeling

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Speaker 2: afterwards when confidence took a bit of a knock. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's possible it's actually slowed down a bit since then.

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Speaker 1: Even why are they lifting the forecasts.

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Speaker 2: Well, they're just looking at some of what they call

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Speaker 2: the high frequency data. So manufacturing production, that sort of

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Speaker 2: thing was slightly better than they expected. Obviously, everyone's everyone's

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Speaker 2: talking about the rural sector going great guns, but that

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Speaker 2: takes some time to come through. But yeah, just a

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Speaker 2: little bit more upbeat around some of the manufacturing and

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Speaker 2: some of that core business stuff. So that's positive. But

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Speaker 2: you know, as we sort of sort of day, you know,

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Speaker 2: retail spending still really flat to backwards, so the consumer end,

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Speaker 2: you know, for those of us in the cities and

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Speaker 2: in retail and hospitality, that's where the economy is really

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Speaker 2: still doing it tough. It all kind of matters in

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Speaker 2: a way, even though it's historic. Because we're talking about

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Speaker 2: whether we get another rate cut on July nine, and

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Speaker 2: the of feeling as if it's landed at zero point

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Speaker 2: seven percent for the corner and it's better than the

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank expected, they might decide to pause and just

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Speaker 2: wait and see and maybe cut again in August. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: perhaps so.

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Speaker 1: And this retail number that we've got out today, which

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Speaker 1: isn't all together flash can we put most of it

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Speaker 1: down to the petrol prices a.

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Speaker 2: Good chunk of it. But even when you strip out

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Speaker 2: the fact that petrol prices were cheaper. You know, you

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Speaker 2: still when you look at nominal terms, you've still got

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Speaker 2: some inflation going on. So still some of those core

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Speaker 2: retail sectors pretty much like it was zero point two down,

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Speaker 2: which is basically flat, but still not great. Anyone you

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Speaker 2: know in the retail sector or the hospitality sector looking

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Speaker 2: for signs that we've turned a corner there. It's just

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Speaker 2: hasn't happened yet. Seems to be taking forever, doesn't it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, totally. Hey, thank you very much, Liam, I really

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Speaker 1: appreciate your time. It's Liam Dan, the Herald's Business editor

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Speaker 1: at large.

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