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Speaker 1: Jamie mckaye, host of the Countries with us Alo Jamie, Hello, Eather.

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Speaker 2: I guess we can blame climate change for that as well.

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Speaker 1: Probably there's a kind of climate change I'm into. I

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Speaker 1: don't know about you, but I quite like rolling around

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Speaker 1: without a jacket on.

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Speaker 2: What about you? Well? As a landowner down in Southland,

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Speaker 2: I'm already planning my keyw fruit orchard.

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Speaker 1: Are you okay?

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Speaker 2: Fantastic?

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Speaker 1: I can't wait to try it grow the red stuff

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Speaker 1: now because I haven't. I haven't got my hands on

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Speaker 1: that yet. Now, talk to me about this GDT auction tonight.

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Speaker 1: What are we expecting?

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Speaker 2: Well, look, it's been down the last couple of actions,

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Speaker 2: and futures is suggesting whole milk powder could be down

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Speaker 2: by four percent. My man, that I go to Mike

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Speaker 2: Mcintyret Jardon's picking a less drastic two percent, he said.

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Speaker 2: Watch out for butter though, yellow gold as it's known

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Speaker 2: these days. They've loaded up the platform with extra volume.

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Speaker 2: So the question as will price as fall as a

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Speaker 2: results supply and demand or is there just an insatiable

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Speaker 2: demand for butter. Interestingly, the futures for the milk price

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Speaker 2: twenty five, twenty sixth the season we've just moved into,

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Speaker 2: still at a very healthy nine to seventy five. But

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Speaker 2: I look at Open Country Dairy, the second biggest process

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Speaker 2: of behind Fonterra. They put a fixed price out on

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Speaker 2: the market a month or so ago at nine point fifty.

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Speaker 2: They came out again last week at nine thirty five.

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Speaker 2: So I'm not saying the golden days are over, far

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Speaker 2: from it, but maybe ten dollars might be just confined

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Speaker 2: to this season. I hope I'm wrong on that one,

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Speaker 2: because we need ten dollars for everything absolutely.

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Speaker 1: Now, what's going wrong with the meat plants?

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Speaker 2: Well, the part of their problem is the farmers, as

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Speaker 2: bizarre as it seems, are getting ten dollars, are up

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Speaker 2: to ten dollars for their lamb per kilogram at the moment,

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Speaker 2: nudging nine dollars for the beef. Last time I had

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Speaker 2: a look, and we've just got less of these animals

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Speaker 2: running around, partly and a big part due I guessed

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Speaker 2: carbon farming and land use change. So what we're seeing

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Speaker 2: is these meat companies are compete really hard to get

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Speaker 2: the last of this season stock, and they're having to

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Speaker 2: pay perhaps more than they want to. They're having in

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Speaker 2: the case of Silverfern Farms. I was at the Primary

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Speaker 2: Industry summit last week. I heard Silverfern Farm's chief executive,

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Speaker 2: Dan Bolton, they're the biggest meat company in the country,

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Speaker 2: saying they've had to lay off three thousand seasonal workers

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Speaker 2: who are normally going flat out at this time of

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Speaker 2: the year on the kel kill. Try saying that quickly

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Speaker 2: three times in a row, you know. And the problem

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Speaker 2: being we've had real issues in the meat industry in

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Speaker 2: recent years attracting good quality workers because there hasn't been

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Speaker 2: the surety of employment. So this is not happening at all. Look,

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Speaker 2: the farmers are enjoying a purple patch, but the meat

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Speaker 2: companies aren't. Beef kill down four percent and twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: four lamb kill down nine percent, so it's sort of

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Speaker 2: it's diminishing returns really, and I just hope it's not

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Speaker 2: last man's standing in the red meat industry when it

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Speaker 2: comes to livestock supply.

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Speaker 1: So, Jamie, apparently we're past peak tractor right. This used

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Speaker 1: to be the bell weather. We'd look at how many

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Speaker 1: tractor sales there were, and then we could determine how

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Speaker 1: the rural economy was doing. But nowadays we don't buy

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Speaker 1: that many tractors. Well, we don't buy as many tractors

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Speaker 1: can buying other stuff, But what are we buying?

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Speaker 2: I thought that this is a quirky little story from

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Speaker 2: your mate Brad Olson from Informature. It's he did some

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Speaker 2: really interesting numbers on peak tractor. We've heard about peak

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Speaker 2: cow and all that sort of stuff. So apparently we're

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Speaker 2: just not buying as many tractors as we used to,

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Speaker 2: or not having as many tractors owned by farmers as

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Speaker 2: we used to be. Reached peak tractor back in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two, we're down about five percent since then. And

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Speaker 2: you know this is due once again to land use change,

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Speaker 2: I guess, changing the way farmers do business. Increasingly, we're

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Speaker 2: seeing a lot of farm operations using contractors. They might

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Speaker 2: own one tractor to do the basic stuff on their farm,

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Speaker 2: but when it comes to the big job, they'll get

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Speaker 2: a contractor in. Also, the other thing with tractors over

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Speaker 2: the years is they've got bigger, they've got more efficient.

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Speaker 2: They cu't bigger gear behind them. They do the job

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Speaker 2: twice as quick as they used to do in the

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Speaker 2: good old days. So you know, bigger tractors are working

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Speaker 2: more efficiently covering more land equals less tractors needed. So yep,

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Speaker 2: peak tractor it has been and gone. We may never

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Speaker 2: get there again.

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Speaker 1: Interesting stuff, Jamie, thanks very much, appreciate it. Jammy mckae,

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Speaker 1: host of the Country.

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Speaker 2: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to

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