WEBVTT - Ashley Church: What makes a property valuable? 0:00:05.761 --> 0:00:09.841 You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks AB. 0:00:11.361 --> 0:00:12.001 You love. 0:00:14.641 --> 0:00:15.161 Episode. 0:00:16.041 --> 0:00:19.681 You can see standees. 0:00:22.561 --> 0:00:29.681 Hostelling. You can see standees. 0:00:29.401 --> 0:00:32.721 News Talk CB Weekend Collective. I'm Jess. I'm with you 0:00:32.761 --> 0:00:35.361 through until six o'clock. Tim on a well earned break 0:00:35.401 --> 0:00:38.641 after working through the summer season. Seven minutes past four 0:00:38.681 --> 0:00:40.761 still to come on the show. After five o'clock, we're 0:00:40.801 --> 0:00:45.201 going to have a debut guest spot with midwife Grace Strange, 0:00:45.241 --> 0:00:48.801 so we're going to talk parenting and also the increasing 0:00:48.921 --> 0:00:51.961 amount of C sections that are being requested in New Zealand. 0:00:52.161 --> 0:00:54.361 We'll find out why that is and whether it is 0:00:54.401 --> 0:00:56.761 a good thing. But of course it is now time 0:00:56.801 --> 0:00:59.801 for the one roof radio show and joining me today 0:00:59.881 --> 0:01:03.961 is Ashley Church, property commentator. Hi, Ashley, Jess. 0:01:04.001 --> 0:01:05.721 I'm just thinking, I'm very please you haven't got the 0:01:05.761 --> 0:01:07.401 topics around the wrong way, because I would have been 0:01:07.441 --> 0:01:08.601 in a bit of trouble with the next. 0:01:08.481 --> 0:01:14.281 Time I want to put that on. You don't worry. 0:01:14.441 --> 0:01:17.121 That would be a whole new type of property check. 0:01:17.241 --> 0:01:17.801 Just quietly. 0:01:18.561 --> 0:01:21.081 Actually, I'm pretty sure whoever it was coming on probably 0:01:21.081 --> 0:01:24.241 would have struggled a bit too, So there you go. 0:01:25.041 --> 0:01:27.841 Hey, now first and foremost, we'll get the formalities out 0:01:27.881 --> 0:01:29.401 of the way. Happy New Year. Did you have a 0:01:29.481 --> 0:01:30.481 chance for a good break? 0:01:31.121 --> 0:01:34.161 Yeah, you didn't go anywhere, living here in Paradise on 0:01:34.241 --> 0:01:35.481 the beach in Hawks Bay. 0:01:36.041 --> 0:01:36.801 Oh nice. 0:01:37.521 --> 0:01:39.641 Had some stunting weather up until Christmas and then the 0:01:40.041 --> 0:01:41.361 and then it all packed up for a while. But 0:01:41.401 --> 0:01:44.641 it's come right again now, but it's been good. 0:01:44.681 --> 0:01:44.881 Yeah. 0:01:44.961 --> 0:01:45.961 How about you? Where did you go? 0:01:46.641 --> 0:01:49.801 I worked, so I didn't go too far. But when 0:01:49.801 --> 0:01:51.761 I did go away, I went camping for ten days 0:01:51.801 --> 0:01:55.721 actually round Nelson and Blenham, and we were lucky with 0:01:55.761 --> 0:01:58.121 the weather. But I tell you what, it's nothing like 0:01:58.161 --> 0:01:59.321 summer should be, isn't. 0:02:00.001 --> 0:02:02.121 Wow. Well, it's interesting you went down there because your 0:02:02.601 --> 0:02:05.481 compatriot Tim Beveridge is down in cable bait the moment, 0:02:05.601 --> 0:02:09.961 so yeah, he is so obviously a popular haunt. 0:02:10.601 --> 0:02:13.481 Yep, yep. And of course we are chatting property now, 0:02:13.561 --> 0:02:16.561 and are we finding is this the time when people 0:02:16.601 --> 0:02:19.441 start to kind of wake up to the property market again? Ashley? 0:02:20.561 --> 0:02:25.201 Well, funny you should ask. So there's a very interesting 0:02:25.281 --> 0:02:27.441 article Calvin Davis, who most of your listeners will know. 0:02:27.521 --> 0:02:32.241 He's with core logic. He's got an article in the 0:02:32.281 --> 0:02:36.161 one of the newspapers a few days ago talking about 0:02:36.161 --> 0:02:38.801 what's happened to house prices over the last in fact, 0:02:38.841 --> 0:02:42.561 basically since since the peak, which was in twenty twenty one, 0:02:43.281 --> 0:02:47.041 and he talks about the fact that Auckland house prices 0:02:47.201 --> 0:02:54.241 have dropped by about twenty percent and how Wellington prices 0:02:54.281 --> 0:02:57.081 have done even worse. He've dropped by about twenty five sorry, 0:02:57.121 --> 0:02:59.841 Auckland about twenty two and Wellington about twenty five, So 0:03:00.441 --> 0:03:04.121 very much crash territory for both of those markets, although 0:03:04.121 --> 0:03:06.761 to be feared that the incidence so that it would 0:03:06.761 --> 0:03:09.321 be different in different parts of Workington Wellington. Anyway, the 0:03:09.361 --> 0:03:12.241 reason I mentioned that is because we've had this, and 0:03:12.281 --> 0:03:14.121 everybody knows this. We've all experienced it, so I'm not 0:03:14.121 --> 0:03:17.161 telling anybody anything they don't already know. What we've all 0:03:17.201 --> 0:03:21.561 been waiting for is the return to market normality, and 0:03:21.841 --> 0:03:23.801 we've had a couple of false starts chests. We had 0:03:23.841 --> 0:03:26.321 a false start about two years ago and then more 0:03:26.401 --> 0:03:31.321 recently in December twenty twenty three, so just over twelve 0:03:31.321 --> 0:03:33.801 months ago it looked like the market was all ready 0:03:33.841 --> 0:03:35.761 to take off again, and this even before interest rates 0:03:35.801 --> 0:03:37.281 started dropping. It looked like there was a bit of 0:03:37.281 --> 0:03:39.561 confidence in the market. And I don't know if whether 0:03:39.561 --> 0:03:41.881 you remember this, but was there was sort of a 0:03:41.961 --> 0:03:47.161 hesitant confidence starting to return. And then Sharon Zohner, who 0:03:47.161 --> 0:03:49.801 was the head economist at the A and Z, made 0:03:49.881 --> 0:03:52.641 what was, in hindsight a pretty stupid comment, which was 0:03:52.721 --> 0:03:55.721 that the Reserve Bank was likely to increase interest rates, 0:03:56.121 --> 0:03:58.641 and that snuffed it out. And at the time she 0:03:58.681 --> 0:04:00.721 got criticized by pretty much everybody, and I think she 0:04:00.761 --> 0:04:02.921 came out and said she was wrong pretty quickly. But 0:04:03.041 --> 0:04:04.961 the point is not so much to criticize her, but 0:04:05.081 --> 0:04:09.681 to just indicate how fickle that confidence actually was at 0:04:09.721 --> 0:04:12.921 the time. So I'm mentioning all that because we're now 0:04:12.961 --> 0:04:16.281 into another phase like that. So we're now into another 0:04:16.361 --> 0:04:19.561 period where it's looking like the market might recover again 0:04:19.721 --> 0:04:22.761 with a bit more validity this time, just because interest 0:04:22.841 --> 0:04:25.521 rates have been dropping reasonably steadily since late last year. 0:04:25.961 --> 0:04:27.961 So the difference between last year and this year is 0:04:28.001 --> 0:04:31.201 that there is there is certainly a reduction in what 0:04:31.201 --> 0:04:34.481 it's costing people to own property, and that has two impacts. One, obviously, 0:04:34.521 --> 0:04:36.721 it gives them more confidence to go back into the 0:04:36.721 --> 0:04:39.041 market and to it means that it actually they can 0:04:39.081 --> 0:04:41.081 spend more because they've got more to spend because they're 0:04:41.081 --> 0:04:44.361 not spending as much on interest. So long, very long 0:04:44.401 --> 0:04:46.841 answer to your question, which is the art to which 0:04:46.841 --> 0:04:47.801 the answers may. 0:04:47.681 --> 0:04:51.801 Be maybe or we might We might as well carry 0:04:51.801 --> 0:04:55.521 on with that chat too, Eshley, because as you say, 0:04:56.241 --> 0:05:00.921 it's it's such a it's such a big as investment 0:05:00.961 --> 0:05:04.961 for so many people that when do people start believe 0:05:05.161 --> 0:05:10.161 thing in the rhetoric when it's Sorry, I. 0:05:10.121 --> 0:05:12.081 Was just going to say, that's an excellent question, and 0:05:12.121 --> 0:05:14.201 if I had the answer without it'd be worth billions. 0:05:14.561 --> 0:05:17.241 So and the reason I say that is because there 0:05:17.361 --> 0:05:18.961 is a point at work. Have you ever read the 0:05:18.961 --> 0:05:23.561 book Tipping Point by Stephen Gladwell Malcolm Gladwell, No, I haven't, No, Okay, 0:05:23.241 --> 0:05:25.161 that's a really good book. He's a British author, wrote 0:05:25.161 --> 0:05:27.161 about twenty years ago, and it basically talks about the 0:05:27.201 --> 0:05:29.801 fact that when subtle changes take place in any trend, 0:05:30.681 --> 0:05:32.601 there is a point at which they suddenly take off. 0:05:32.681 --> 0:05:34.281 Doesn't matter what it is, whether it's a product of 0:05:34.361 --> 0:05:36.521 service or in our case, the property market, there is 0:05:36.561 --> 0:05:38.801 a point at which it tips. And once that tip 0:05:38.841 --> 0:05:42.041 takes place at the prices start dropping in the case 0:05:42.081 --> 0:05:44.241 of the property market, all going up if we're going 0:05:44.281 --> 0:05:48.721 into a new market. And so the question at the 0:05:48.721 --> 0:05:51.121 moment is when will that tipping point be. I think 0:05:51.121 --> 0:05:53.441 we all recognize it's coming. We all know it's going 0:05:53.481 --> 0:05:55.801 to happen. We all know that the market's long overdue 0:05:55.801 --> 0:05:57.681 for an increase and that it's going to take off again. 0:05:57.921 --> 0:05:59.721 It's just that none of us know when we will 0:05:59.761 --> 0:06:02.041 actually hit that point. When it happens, it will happen 0:06:02.121 --> 0:06:04.641 quickly and we'll know it. We'll all know it. But 0:06:04.681 --> 0:06:07.121 it hasn't happened yet, and we're sort of all waiting 0:06:07.121 --> 0:06:09.681 on ten to hooks. And I think probably more nervous 0:06:09.721 --> 0:06:12.761 because this time fourteen months ago we were going through 0:06:12.801 --> 0:06:15.441 pretty much the same thing, thinking that was the tipping point, 0:06:15.481 --> 0:06:16.521 and it turns out it wasn't. 0:06:17.241 --> 0:06:21.121 Yeah, exactly, And so why is it areas like Wellington 0:06:21.121 --> 0:06:22.961 and Auckland. Do you think that have dropped because it 0:06:23.001 --> 0:06:25.361 hasn't been near as bad in christ Church? 0:06:26.001 --> 0:06:28.001 Yeah? Two slight dear different reasons in each of those. 0:06:28.001 --> 0:06:29.881 So in the case of Auckland, it's because they got 0:06:29.881 --> 0:06:32.441 so high. So you remember we had that and it's 0:06:32.481 --> 0:06:34.281 really important, and I say this every time on the show, 0:06:34.321 --> 0:06:36.641 and I need to stress it. The reason we're in 0:06:36.641 --> 0:06:39.881 this position now is that there is a If you 0:06:39.921 --> 0:06:42.041 want to look for somebody to blame or something to blame, 0:06:42.321 --> 0:06:45.921 there is an offending party and it's the Reserve Bank. 0:06:45.961 --> 0:06:49.441 The Reserve Bank created the situation that increased house prices 0:06:49.481 --> 0:06:52.441 in twenty twenty and twenty twenty one, and then when 0:06:52.441 --> 0:06:54.601 it realized it had gone too far with monetary policy, 0:06:54.641 --> 0:06:56.921 it had born interest rates down too far, it then 0:06:56.961 --> 0:06:59.081 proceeded to do the opposite of that and basically screw 0:06:59.161 --> 0:07:01.641 the economy for two years. So the Reserve Bank is 0:07:02.241 --> 0:07:04.961 the stalking night in this and the Reserve Bank's desperate 0:07:05.201 --> 0:07:07.361 now trying to get inflation back under control. Looks like 0:07:07.401 --> 0:07:11.161 it's done that I should hasten to add. I agree 0:07:11.201 --> 0:07:13.321 with what they've done. I just resent the fact that 0:07:13.321 --> 0:07:14.721 they put us in the position that they had to 0:07:14.721 --> 0:07:16.921 do it in the first place. So Auckland house prices 0:07:16.961 --> 0:07:20.161 went up dramatically as a result of rezerm policy, so 0:07:20.201 --> 0:07:22.801 they had further to fall. And it's pretty much as 0:07:22.841 --> 0:07:25.441 simple as that. In most parts of Auckland, Wellington's a 0:07:25.441 --> 0:07:28.681 little bit more difficult difficult a couple of reasons. One 0:07:28.721 --> 0:07:30.841 of them is that, and this is going to offend 0:07:30.841 --> 0:07:32.401 some of your listeners, but it's just a fact. When 0:07:32.401 --> 0:07:34.681 it comes to the Wellington market, I would argue that 0:07:34.881 --> 0:07:38.721 Wellington's not a particularly attractive destination for people to purchase homes. 0:07:38.721 --> 0:07:40.441 People go there because they have to because they work 0:07:40.481 --> 0:07:43.841 in the public service. So it's not a destination like 0:07:44.281 --> 0:07:45.961 other parts of the country where I am here in 0:07:46.001 --> 0:07:47.961 Hawk's Bay or where you are in christ Church. You 0:07:47.961 --> 0:07:49.681 are other parts of the country where people buying because 0:07:49.721 --> 0:07:52.241 they want to because it's a lifestyle destination. They buy 0:07:52.241 --> 0:07:56.001 in Wellington because that's where the job is. And compounding that, 0:07:56.121 --> 0:07:58.601 and related to that, is the fact that the public 0:07:58.681 --> 0:08:01.441 service is such a large stalking horse over the Wellington 0:08:01.481 --> 0:08:03.961 property economy that when there's a lack of confidence in 0:08:04.001 --> 0:08:07.601 what's happening there or or changes taking place as there 0:08:07.601 --> 0:08:10.041 are at the moment with the government, that also has 0:08:10.361 --> 0:08:12.441 that costs a very long shadow over what happens to 0:08:12.841 --> 0:08:15.161 Wellington house prices, and that will continue to do so, 0:08:15.721 --> 0:08:17.881 I think probably for another year or so, until that 0:08:18.241 --> 0:08:19.761 sort of sorts itself out and we know what the 0:08:19.761 --> 0:08:21.281 Government's actually doing in that space. 0:08:21.881 --> 0:08:26.161 Yeah, and it's with things like infrastructure. You know, Wellington's 0:08:26.161 --> 0:08:28.801 had such a tough time in the news over the 0:08:28.881 --> 0:08:31.801 last year with their water infrastructure and the likes of that. 0:08:31.881 --> 0:08:32.961 Does that put people off? 0:08:33.761 --> 0:08:35.361 Well, it puts It's not so much that it puts 0:08:35.441 --> 0:08:37.881 us off per se. Well, yes it does, but it 0:08:37.921 --> 0:08:40.401 also puts it puts people off because all that impacts 0:08:40.441 --> 0:08:43.561 on rates. So Wellington rates are just astronomical at the 0:08:43.561 --> 0:08:46.561 moment there. You know, they're at a point now where 0:08:46.681 --> 0:08:48.721 I would argue the government should already have stepped in 0:08:48.761 --> 0:08:51.401 and sacked the council there and put a commissioner in 0:08:51.401 --> 0:08:53.401 in the same way that they did with Towering or 0:08:53.401 --> 0:08:55.001 a few years ago. In fact, they probably could have 0:08:55.041 --> 0:08:57.441 got in Tolly who was the commissioner and Towering are 0:08:57.481 --> 0:09:00.801 to do the same job in Wellington. For whatever reason, 0:09:00.841 --> 0:09:03.881 they've chosen not to. But so you've got this uncertainty. 0:09:03.921 --> 0:09:05.721 You've got people thinking, what's gonna heaven to my rates? 0:09:05.761 --> 0:09:07.601 And they're going to continue increasing over the next few 0:09:07.641 --> 0:09:10.081 years are certainly an indication that they're likely to. And 0:09:10.121 --> 0:09:12.481 then you've got, as you say, all that infrastructural deficit 0:09:12.561 --> 0:09:15.561 stuff that's taking place, which is not only expensive, but 0:09:15.641 --> 0:09:18.081 it also impacts on people's lifestyles while the well that 0:09:18.121 --> 0:09:19.081 work's actually being. 0:09:18.961 --> 0:09:21.881 Done eight hundred eighty ten eighty. If you've got a 0:09:21.921 --> 0:09:25.201 question for Ashley Church, our property commentator today, have you 0:09:25.241 --> 0:09:28.601 seen your property value go down? Have you seen prices 0:09:28.641 --> 0:09:31.241 going down around you? Are you trying to buy or 0:09:31.281 --> 0:09:34.041 sell at the moment and how are you finding it? 0:09:34.161 --> 0:09:36.481 Our lines are open, oh, eight hundred eighty ten eighty 0:09:36.561 --> 0:09:39.361 or any question in regards to the property market. We 0:09:39.401 --> 0:09:42.641 would welcome your calls today. So is it a good 0:09:42.641 --> 0:09:44.961 time to sell then, Ashley at the moment, given what's 0:09:45.001 --> 0:09:45.361 going on. 0:09:46.681 --> 0:09:49.161 It's an interesting question because it really depends on why 0:09:49.201 --> 0:09:51.641 you're selling. If you're selling to make money, if you're 0:09:51.641 --> 0:09:53.281 selling because you want to sort of capitalize on the 0:09:53.321 --> 0:09:57.761 value of your property, probably not. But most people aren't 0:09:57.801 --> 0:09:59.921 doing that. Most people are buying and selling for reasons 0:09:59.921 --> 0:10:03.161 other than profits, So they're they're they're selling because they 0:10:03.161 --> 0:10:04.841 want to buy another house, either in the same city 0:10:04.961 --> 0:10:07.361 or somewhere else. And for those people, life just goes 0:10:07.401 --> 0:10:10.161 on and so they'll continue and particularly if you're in 0:10:10.201 --> 0:10:12.841 the same market, so if you are in Wellington, for example, 0:10:13.321 --> 0:10:16.081 and things are a little bit up in the air 0:10:16.121 --> 0:10:18.321 there at the moment. If you're selling a property in 0:10:18.401 --> 0:10:20.361 order to buy another property in the Wellington market, then 0:10:20.401 --> 0:10:22.961 you're fine because because as much as prices might be 0:10:22.961 --> 0:10:25.961 a little bit depressed at the moment, that goes both ways. 0:10:25.961 --> 0:10:28.361 If you're buying it also it's also a benefit to you. 0:10:28.841 --> 0:10:33.921 So the answer is probably no. But if you ask 0:10:34.001 --> 0:10:35.841 me the flip question to that, which is a good 0:10:35.841 --> 0:10:38.161 time to buy, it's absolutely a good time to buy 0:10:38.241 --> 0:10:41.241 right now and it won't continue to be for it indefinitely. 0:10:42.081 --> 0:10:44.281 Prices are probably as depressed as they're going to be 0:10:44.321 --> 0:10:46.281 at the moment in most parts of the country, even 0:10:46.321 --> 0:10:48.361 christ Church where they've only dropped by about seven percent, 0:10:48.681 --> 0:10:50.681 they're not going to drop any further than that. So 0:10:50.761 --> 0:10:53.281 for somebody who's looking to buy a home, maybe a 0:10:53.361 --> 0:10:55.081 first time buyer who's been holding off for the last 0:10:55.081 --> 0:10:57.441 couple of years, thinking that you know, the property houses 0:10:57.561 --> 0:11:00.681 that might drop a little bit further. You're talking eking 0:11:00.761 --> 0:11:05.601 out small, tiny fractions of a percent. Now more likely 0:11:05.601 --> 0:11:08.281 that house prices will start increasing. So for those people yet, 0:11:08.281 --> 0:11:09.681 it's a good time to be listening to it to 0:11:09.881 --> 0:11:12.681 take advantage of the market. Well, that still prevails. 0:11:12.921 --> 0:11:16.201 An interesting as an aside. This week, of course, we 0:11:16.241 --> 0:11:18.521 heard that christ Church in the Canterbury region having a 0:11:18.601 --> 0:11:23.201 huge amount of consents approved. So meeting that demand is 0:11:23.241 --> 0:11:25.841 obviously going to keep the price fairly reasonable. 0:11:26.361 --> 0:11:28.281 You would hope, you would hope, Yeah, I did see that. 0:11:28.481 --> 0:11:31.761 It's not something I keep a huge ionic am. Interestingly, 0:11:31.801 --> 0:11:34.601 that would be the opposite situation to some parts of 0:11:34.601 --> 0:11:38.441 the country, where partly as a result of the fact 0:11:38.441 --> 0:11:40.561 that there was probably over supply over the last couple 0:11:40.601 --> 0:11:42.041 of years, and partly as a result of the fact 0:11:42.041 --> 0:11:45.321 that immigration numbers have come down, that consenting for new 0:11:45.361 --> 0:11:47.521 constructions come down in some parts of the country. So 0:11:47.561 --> 0:11:49.601 the fact that it's up in christ Church is a 0:11:49.601 --> 0:11:51.321 good sign of a healthy economy. 0:11:51.401 --> 0:11:53.521 Sure is. I can see it happening around me in 0:11:53.561 --> 0:11:57.161 the central city as we speak. Apartments going up everywhere. Oh, 0:11:57.241 --> 0:11:59.001 eight hundred and eighty ten eighty. If you have a 0:11:59.081 --> 0:12:02.761 question around property investment, whether you're buying or selling at 0:12:02.801 --> 0:12:05.641 the moment, or want some questions answered, weight one hundred 0:12:05.641 --> 0:12:07.921 and eighty teen eighty, we'd love to have your calls. 0:12:08.241 --> 0:12:10.521 We have Hapal on the line, Hig Hapal. 0:12:11.601 --> 0:12:16.841 How are you goody, Sorry but novous. This is the 0:12:16.881 --> 0:12:20.201 first time Mama were talking on a radio. Shirt don't 0:12:20.241 --> 0:12:23.521 need to be made. Yeah, so I got a house 0:12:23.921 --> 0:12:27.641 last year. The intrust rate was like, I think six 0:12:27.721 --> 0:12:32.121 at five seven. And if the intrust rate go down, 0:12:32.241 --> 0:12:34.721 you think it will increase my equity or I have 0:12:34.761 --> 0:12:36.401 a chance to buy a second property. 0:12:37.441 --> 0:12:40.681 Both. So let's take two of those things. Firstly, if 0:12:40.721 --> 0:12:43.121 interest rates go down, So one of the things we 0:12:43.201 --> 0:12:46.281 do now know, and you know it's a merge. It's 0:12:46.321 --> 0:12:47.961 something I've talked a lot about over the last three 0:12:48.041 --> 0:12:50.241 or four years, is that there is a direct relationship 0:12:50.281 --> 0:12:53.841 between increased house prices and lower interest rates, both in 0:12:53.881 --> 0:12:56.921 terms of confidence and in terms of affordability. So if 0:12:56.961 --> 0:12:59.721 interest rates continue to come down, which they will be recorded, 0:13:00.961 --> 0:13:07.281 I don't know what that was. Yeah, if interest rates 0:13:07.321 --> 0:13:10.961 continue to go down, as they will, then you would 0:13:11.001 --> 0:13:14.561 expect house prices to increase on the back of that, 0:13:15.521 --> 0:13:17.641 not necessarily at exactly the same rate, but if you 0:13:17.641 --> 0:13:19.641 look at that trend line over the longer periods, you'll 0:13:19.681 --> 0:13:23.281 see that that relationship's there. In respect of buying another property, 0:13:23.281 --> 0:13:25.481 that really relates to some other factors as well, that 0:13:25.521 --> 0:13:28.201 also comes down to what your financial position is, whether 0:13:28.201 --> 0:13:30.281 you're in a position to be able to afford to 0:13:30.281 --> 0:13:32.321 pay a second mortgage, whether the banks, whether you've got 0:13:32.401 --> 0:13:36.081 enough equity in your existing property to maintain the bank's 0:13:36.121 --> 0:13:38.641 minimum as well as have enough for a deposit on 0:13:38.681 --> 0:13:40.561 a new property, and whether the bank would accept that. 0:13:40.641 --> 0:13:43.601 So that's a more fraught and complicated equation. But if 0:13:43.601 --> 0:13:45.481 you talk to a mortgage broker or to your local bank, 0:13:45.481 --> 0:13:46.561 they'll be able to help you with that. 0:13:47.841 --> 0:13:49.441 Oh, yeah, thanks for helping Matt. 0:13:49.761 --> 0:13:53.241 One for Thanks for your call, Harpal, appreciate it. Oh 0:13:53.281 --> 0:13:55.321 eight hundred and eighty ten eighty is the number to 0:13:55.401 --> 0:13:57.801 call if you've got some questions for Ashley, you'd be 0:13:57.881 --> 0:14:01.001 happy to chat with you. Ashley, We've got a text 0:14:01.081 --> 0:14:03.801 here from Alex and I'm not sure if you're familiar 0:14:03.801 --> 0:14:06.681 with the carpety mark it, but he's asking are you 0:14:06.721 --> 0:14:09.281 familiar with the company market and what it's doing and 0:14:09.401 --> 0:14:11.641 is there a different market to Wellington City? 0:14:12.281 --> 0:14:15.121 Yeah, it is and and so and I'm glad he 0:14:15.121 --> 0:14:17.321 asked that because that's a good point. Actually, So when 0:14:17.361 --> 0:14:19.721 I talk Wellington, I tend to talk the Wellington region 0:14:19.761 --> 0:14:22.801 as fast North as as pro ruit and maybe a 0:14:22.841 --> 0:14:25.921 little bit further so, so in that sort of I 0:14:25.961 --> 0:14:28.041 when I talk with that sort of Greater Wellington area, 0:14:28.081 --> 0:14:30.681 for me, that's that Greater Wellington actually does take in 0:14:30.721 --> 0:14:32.681 capity though in fact Greater well Engine actually takes in 0:14:33.161 --> 0:14:37.201 why a wrapper, I think and the company markets clearly different. 0:14:37.241 --> 0:14:40.481 And it's different because obviously it is a lifestyle destination. 0:14:40.561 --> 0:14:42.361 It is some it is some where people go because 0:14:42.361 --> 0:14:45.401 of the lifestyle. It's a retirement destination. There's a lot 0:14:45.401 --> 0:14:48.281 of people by there because they choose to retire there. 0:14:48.361 --> 0:14:50.441 It's a lot newer, it's got a lot of newer housing. 0:14:50.441 --> 0:14:52.001 It's got a sort of a dynamic to it that 0:14:52.041 --> 0:14:55.361 doesn't exist to the same de grand Wellington. So if 0:14:55.801 --> 0:14:59.801 Alex is in CARPETI yeah, that's that that would definitely 0:14:59.881 --> 0:15:01.601 have a different complexion to it than what's going on 0:15:01.601 --> 0:15:02.161 in Wellington. 0:15:02.601 --> 0:15:05.081 Okay, thank you, Ashley, and we'll head back to the 0:15:05.121 --> 0:15:06.441 phones now, Hi Ben. 0:15:07.281 --> 0:15:12.601 Ben there, Ashley, you've spoken a bit about Wellington for 0:15:12.721 --> 0:15:16.121 first time buyers an Orkland. How much longer do you 0:15:16.121 --> 0:15:18.001 think this opportunity might last? 0:15:18.761 --> 0:15:21.081 It's a really good question. So it's definitely there right 0:15:21.121 --> 0:15:23.881 now and it's been there for some time. Probably the 0:15:23.881 --> 0:15:26.121 best way to answer that is to say, once it changes, 0:15:26.161 --> 0:15:28.521 it will change quickly. So I can't tell you when 0:15:28.601 --> 0:15:30.681 when the market will change. What I can tell you 0:15:30.801 --> 0:15:33.201 is when it does change. You know what FOEMO has 0:15:33.241 --> 0:15:38.561 been the fear of missing out. So Phoe is essentially 0:15:38.641 --> 0:15:42.041 the personification of the change that takes place in people's confidence. 0:15:42.041 --> 0:15:43.641 So they go from this point where they're not sure 0:15:43.641 --> 0:15:46.841 whether it's a good time to buy, to suddenly something 0:15:46.961 --> 0:15:49.561 changes in the water, The mood changes, the confidence changes, 0:15:49.601 --> 0:15:52.281 and then suddenly it moves into this thing of hey, 0:15:52.281 --> 0:15:54.081 house prices are going up. I better buy quickly or 0:15:54.121 --> 0:15:55.281 I'm going to I'm not going to be able to 0:15:55.321 --> 0:15:58.721 afford to do so when that kicks in, and it will. 0:15:59.201 --> 0:16:01.761 When that kicks in, it has a tendency to take 0:16:01.761 --> 0:16:04.641 hold quite quickly. And when I say quite quickly, by 0:16:04.681 --> 0:16:07.041 meaning house prices, good could go up by as much 0:16:07.081 --> 0:16:10.201 as ten percent and twelve months. So I can't tell 0:16:10.201 --> 0:16:12.041 you when that will happen, but when it does happen, 0:16:12.081 --> 0:16:12.961 it will happen fast. 0:16:14.201 --> 0:16:16.241 Awesome thinks I should not worries at all. 0:16:16.241 --> 0:16:18.641 Have That's helpful, mate, chess mate. 0:16:18.801 --> 0:16:20.921 Thanks Ben, appreciate your call, I wait one hundred and 0:16:20.961 --> 0:16:24.041 eighty ten eighty your opportunity to pick the brains of 0:16:24.081 --> 0:16:26.241 a property expert if you're in the market to buy 0:16:26.401 --> 0:16:29.241 or sell, actually would be happy to take your calls. 0:16:29.761 --> 0:16:31.921 Just before we take a break, Ashley, I've got a 0:16:32.001 --> 0:16:34.401 text your saying, not only the Reserve Bank to blame 0:16:34.481 --> 0:16:38.201 investors brought up large and cut out poor first home buyers. 0:16:38.361 --> 0:16:40.241 We've never had the capital gain, so it was better 0:16:40.281 --> 0:16:43.041 playing with houses rather than business or shares. Would you 0:16:43.121 --> 0:16:43.721 agree with that? 0:16:44.241 --> 0:16:47.561 No, not at all. Two reasons. One is that investors 0:16:47.801 --> 0:16:50.801 are absolutely no different to anybody else who operates in 0:16:50.841 --> 0:16:53.201 any form of business, which as they respond to market signals, 0:16:53.201 --> 0:16:56.081 and the market signals were lower cost money buy, so 0:16:56.161 --> 0:17:00.401 they did more. Importantly, that text plays up this whole 0:17:00.441 --> 0:17:03.161 idea that there's a confrontation between property investors in first 0:17:03.161 --> 0:17:05.361 home buyers that simply doesn't exist. It's non since it 0:17:05.361 --> 0:17:07.961 always has been the biggest group of buyers in the 0:17:08.001 --> 0:17:10.161 market at any given point in New Zealand's history, with 0:17:10.161 --> 0:17:11.801 the exception. I think so if you go back to 0:17:11.801 --> 0:17:14.241 twenty fourteen and you look at each year as having 0:17:14.241 --> 0:17:17.161 four quarters since twenty and fourteen, there was only three 0:17:17.241 --> 0:17:19.601 or four quarters, where first time buyers weren't the biggest 0:17:19.601 --> 0:17:23.481 buyers in the market. They represent. Yeah, so this idea 0:17:23.521 --> 0:17:25.241 that investors came in and took all the first time 0:17:25.281 --> 0:17:29.161 buyers our houses is simply not true. And investors serve 0:17:29.161 --> 0:17:31.481 a completely different purpose in the market. If you didn't 0:17:31.481 --> 0:17:33.881 have investors buying rental property for people to rent, the 0:17:33.921 --> 0:17:36.001 government would have to provide those rentals. So it's this 0:17:36.121 --> 0:17:38.441 idea that first time buyers were missing out and not 0:17:38.481 --> 0:17:41.161 buying houses is simply nonsense. They continue to be the 0:17:41.201 --> 0:17:44.041 significant part of the market, will continue to be so, 0:17:44.041 --> 0:17:46.401 so if you didn't have investors in the country would 0:17:46.441 --> 0:17:48.561 be in dire shape because you and I, as a taxpayer, 0:17:48.561 --> 0:17:50.041 would have to pick up the bill for those houses 0:17:50.081 --> 0:17:50.801 that people rented. 0:17:51.321 --> 0:17:53.481 Yeah, and a lot of that does come from political 0:17:53.521 --> 0:17:54.601 spin too, doesn't. 0:17:54.361 --> 0:17:57.241 It totally totally And it comes out of people's political ideology, 0:17:57.241 --> 0:17:58.801 and I get that, but it isn't true. 0:17:59.121 --> 0:18:01.201 Yeah, fair enough, I thank you. Actually, we're going to 0:18:01.201 --> 0:18:03.521 take a break now, oh eight hundred and eighty ten 0:18:03.601 --> 0:18:04.921 eighty if you'd like to get on the line to 0:18:05.081 --> 0:18:07.401 ask your questions. And the one roof property out here, 0:18:07.481 --> 0:18:09.961 the week in Collective News Talks e'd b twenty four 0:18:10.001 --> 0:18:12.721 minutes past four and I'm Juce Davidson with you today, 0:18:12.801 --> 0:18:15.881 Tim having a well enned break in. We are very 0:18:15.881 --> 0:18:18.801 honored to be joined by Ashley Church, property commentator today. 0:18:18.801 --> 0:18:21.561 He's taking your questions on the property market. We've been 0:18:21.561 --> 0:18:26.921 discussing that their significant drops in Wellington in Auckland and 0:18:27.401 --> 0:18:29.601 answering your calls as well. Oh one hundred and eighty 0:18:29.681 --> 0:18:32.361 teen eighty good afternoon, Mary, Oh. 0:18:32.281 --> 0:18:39.481 Good Asking y Ashley, I wanted to ask why it's 0:18:39.481 --> 0:18:44.081