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Speaker 1: The last of the oil tankers that made it through

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Speaker 1: the Strait of Hormuz before it shut down have now

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Speaker 1: arrived in Singapore. Now this is significant for New Zealand

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Speaker 1: because Singapore and South Korea are the two places where

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Speaker 1: we get most of our fuel from. So it means

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Speaker 1: if there's going to be some sort of a disruption,

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Speaker 1: we're about to find out about it. Mark Douglass is

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Speaker 1: an analyst with Starboard Maritime Intelligence. They track ships around

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Speaker 1: the globe and he's with us.

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Speaker 2: High Mark, Hi, how are you.

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Speaker 1: I'm very well, thank you. So do you think we're

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Speaker 1: going to feel a disruption?

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Speaker 2: Not initially. So I'm looking at my screen and I

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Speaker 2: can see nine tankers all making their way to New

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Speaker 2: Zealand from the likes of Singapore, South Korea and Japan.

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Speaker 2: So in the short term, as I think the Finance

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Speaker 2: Minister has said, there's plenty of fuel on the way.

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Speaker 2: But in the long term, certainly it's going to start

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Speaker 2: to buy it. When when So it takes time to

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Speaker 2: refine the fuel, but it's already happening in the pumps.

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Speaker 2: It's going up and it's going to get worse from there.

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Speaker 2: As the longer the disruption comes. Luckily, the likes of

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Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia are moving where they load tankers to other

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Speaker 2: points that aren't affected by the crisses with Iran. But

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Speaker 2: that's still going to reduce the flow coming out.

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Speaker 1: So you'd normally get obviously it would be pretty regular

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Speaker 1: arrivals in Singapore. What is going to be the gap,

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Speaker 1: what's going to be the delay between the ships that

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Speaker 1: have arrived now that got through the Strait of Humors

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Speaker 1: and whatever arrives next.

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Speaker 2: So the last of them left on the twenty eighth

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Speaker 2: and it's now the eleventh, so twelve days. Let's call

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Speaker 2: it actually two weeks at least before between when the

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Speaker 2: straits finally open up, when the vessels actually managed to

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Speaker 2: load leave and then get to Singapore, and from there

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Speaker 2: they need to be unloaded. Product needs to get refined

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Speaker 2: and then loaded onto the product tankers to make its way.

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Speaker 1: To New Zealand, which means that what if we haven't

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Speaker 1: got anything coming through right now, it's going to be

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Speaker 1: a delay of at least two weeks.

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Speaker 2: At least two weeks.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you seeing any ships come through it all.

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Speaker 2: Coming through the Straits of Hormos. I have seen one

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Speaker 2: bulk carrier make it through today and it was proudly

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Speaker 2: displaying its destination as Chinese crew.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so what I've read it is that at the

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Speaker 1: moment what is getting through is Iranian and it's going

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Speaker 1: dark because of the radar jamming, and it's on its

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Speaker 1: way to China. So they just are letting some ship

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Speaker 1: through their own vessels to make money. Is that what's happening?

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Speaker 2: Yes, absolutely, so it's in Iran's best interest to continue

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Speaker 2: the flow of oil, and their biggest customer is China.

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Speaker 2: But they've also seen reports that they're also considering leading

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Speaker 2: Indian vessels through as well, so that they can continue

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Speaker 2: the flow of oil to that country.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so what is the most likely outcome here? Are

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Speaker 1: we going to be dealing because obviously there's a difference

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Speaker 1: between running out and high prices, although they can be combined.

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Speaker 1: Are we more likely to be faced with high prices

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Speaker 1: than running out altogether and having rationing?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, at this point, it absolutely looks like higher prices

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Speaker 2: are far more likely than running out altogether.

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Speaker 1: All right, Mark, thank you very much, made appreciate it.

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Speaker 1: Mark Douglas, Starboard Maritime Intelligence. They watch all the ships around.

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