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Speaker 1: The Huddle with New Zealand Southeby's International Realty, Unique Homes,

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Speaker 1: Uniquely for you on the huddle.

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Speaker 2: For me this evening we have Jordan Williams, Taxpayers Union,

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Speaker 2: Jack tam Q and I host host of Saturday Mornings

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Speaker 2: on ZB Hello you too. I'm going to come back

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Speaker 2: to Winston and all this stuff about COVID, But can

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Speaker 2: I start with you Jordan on the ocr Should the

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank have cut double today?

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Speaker 3: Well, it's pretty clear that the economy is in trouble

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Speaker 3: and the government's in trouble on the economy. I don't

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Speaker 3: know if you saw, but Nikola Willis made quite an

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Speaker 3: extraordinary attack on the Taxpayer's Union for pointing out the

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Speaker 3: blindly obvious, which is that spending continues to increase, that

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Speaker 3: is driving the cost of living and making as a

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Speaker 3: huge anchor on the economy. And she had a big

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Speaker 3: swipe at the Taxpayers Union, basically resorting to a left

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Speaker 3: wing characterture that we want health in education or hospitals

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Speaker 3: and schools cut, which is nonsense on stilts. She's clearly

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Speaker 3: under real pressure and she's instead I wouldn't listen to

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Speaker 3: Taxpayers Union, listen to the Reserve Bank. The reserve banks

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Speaker 3: say we're going to cut spending in the future tense,

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Speaker 3: ignoring the fact that under Nikola Willis, it's almost as

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Speaker 3: if she hasn't delivered to budgets. She's increased spending relative

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Speaker 3: to Grant Robinson, relative to the size of the economy.

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Speaker 3: She's clearly under real pressure.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so too, Jack. Should they have double cut?

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Speaker 4: Well, I think if you look at the inflation numbers,

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Speaker 4: I mean they are getting you know, if we go

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Speaker 4: from the most recent inflation numbers, they're getting pretty high

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Speaker 4: to the period within the target band. And let us

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Speaker 4: not forget that the very first step that this new

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Speaker 4: government took was to amend the Reserve Bank Act so

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Speaker 4: that they would have the sole focus on keeping inflation.

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Speaker 2: But they need to look through this, right and they

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Speaker 2: know themselves they need to look through this because inflation

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Speaker 2: is going to come back because of what's going on

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Speaker 2: in the economy, so that they should be looking through.

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Speaker 4: But at the moment, at the moment, it's at two

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Speaker 4: point seven percent, and all you need is for a

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Speaker 4: little shot through it, you know, a tariff being fifteen

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Speaker 4: percent rather than ten percent or something like that, and

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Speaker 4: all of a sudden we start nudging north of the

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Speaker 4: upper part of that band, and what is the result

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Speaker 4: being been told to focus ruthlessly on inflation. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: I mean, I think I can understand why they you know,

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Speaker 4: why the committee was split today, But I'm not surprised

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Speaker 4: they went with twenty five points. I think the real

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Speaker 4: question is going to be whether or not they cut

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Speaker 4: it two more times, heating into twenty twenty six, which

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Speaker 4: is obviously not where they were expecting their last update.

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Speaker 2: I reckon Jordan that the government should be getting quite

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Speaker 2: nervous about where this economy is going and whether it

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Speaker 2: actually starts feeling any better for us in a year's time.

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Speaker 3: They are, they are. I mean, the Jex has put

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Speaker 3: his finger on the point, which is that the government,

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Speaker 3: because the government hasn't followed through on its promises to

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Speaker 3: get spending under control, it's kept inflation high, which means

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Speaker 3: we can't get the necessarily low ocr that we need

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Speaker 3: to get the economy back into shape. That it's a

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Speaker 3: continuation of the sort of of the Durn Robinson era

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Speaker 3: of simply thinking that jawboney in the economy, running a

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Speaker 3: comm strategy is enough to get us back on track.

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Speaker 3: You know, the work just hasn't been done. Look, I

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Speaker 3: understand that, you know, politicians have to spin, but it's

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Speaker 3: starting to turn into a little bit of Nikola willis

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Speaker 3: parallel universe where she claims to have cut spending and

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Speaker 3: I you know you rightly had her up on this

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Speaker 3: and they're getting the books into shape. Let's go through

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Speaker 3: the fact she's spending more. We're borrowing more per day

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Speaker 3: right now than when Grant Robinson left office, and we

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Speaker 3: are actually markets are already determining. You look at our

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Speaker 3: ten year bond rate, the costs of at cost of

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Speaker 3: the crown. Despite our relatively low ocr we're paying our

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Speaker 3: second only to the UK in terms of their ten

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Speaker 3: year bond ten year guilt rate. You know, the collactons

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Speaker 3: are going off.

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Speaker 2: Yeh, I've got to take a break, But Jack, I

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Speaker 2: want to get your take when we come back on

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Speaker 2: how much trouble Nichola is.

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Speaker 1: In the huddle with New Zealand Southeby's International Realty, the

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Speaker 1: ones for unmashed results.

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Speaker 2: Right, you're back with a huddle, Jack Tame Jordan Williams.

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Speaker 2: Jack Hosking this morning said he would take Erica Stanford

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Speaker 2: over Nikola Willis. Now a year ago, Nikola Willis was

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Speaker 2: the heir apparent. So what's happened?

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Speaker 4: Ah, Well, the economy's not doing very well. Whereas I

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Speaker 4: think the majority of New Zealanders probably look at Erica

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Speaker 4: Stanford's handling of the education portfolio and say that she's

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Speaker 4: right on top of things at the moment, and that

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Speaker 4: actually a lot of the reforms that she's proposing long overdue.

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Speaker 2: And how much trouble is she in? How much trouble

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Speaker 2: isn'tause you realize that Chris just let me finish quarly.

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Speaker 2: You realize Chris Luction's fortunes are so tied to what

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Speaker 2: Nikola Willis is doing because the pair of them has

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Speaker 2: said that they would get the economy back on truck.

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Speaker 2: So how much trouble is she personally in that position?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I think that I think the entire

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Speaker 4: government's fortunes rest on the state of the economy. And look,

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Speaker 4: while things are dire at the moment, you have to

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Speaker 4: say that over the next twelve months or so, on

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Speaker 4: the balance of probabilities, even though I don't think our

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Speaker 4: economy is going to be absolutely singing in twelve month time,

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Speaker 4: on the balance of probabilities, we probably will have turned

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Speaker 4: a bit of a corner. At the very least, sentiment

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Speaker 4: is likely to be a little more positive than it

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Speaker 4: is today. That probably August well for Nikola Willis. I

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Speaker 4: think if they were shack things up before the election

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Speaker 4: and mover out of the financial portfolio, that would be

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Speaker 4: seen as a bit of panic station. But yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 4: you know, all you need is for things to not

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Speaker 4: turn around. I mean, I think that they've been surprised

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Speaker 4: at how long it has taken to turn this bus,

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Speaker 4: and yeah, who knows where it's going to go over

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Speaker 4: the next six months or time.

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Speaker 2: Jordan, that business with Winston wanting to appear before the

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Speaker 2: COVID inquiry is just a stunt, isn't it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, But I mean it's it's a relatively good one.

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Speaker 3: You've been reading that. I was going to say reading

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Speaker 3: the tea leaves, but brex is reading the text bas

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Speaker 3: with the snappole that we did carried by the Herald

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Speaker 3: on the weekend that actually even even labor voters think

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Speaker 3: it's wrong for our the decision makers for what were

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Speaker 3: the most significant public policy decisions in our lifetime, not

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Speaker 3: to front up this sort of weird approach that sort

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Speaker 3: of a private behind closed or courts and some decision

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Speaker 3: provide the public accountability. Well, on that basis, we wouldn't

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Speaker 3: have public access to courts. I don't know about you heither,

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Speaker 3: but I want to hear There's lots of questions I

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Speaker 3: want here, and not just a report on. I want

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Speaker 3: to hear them answer to judge for myself and I

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Speaker 3: think for you. You know, I'm not a COVID cooker,

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Speaker 3: but you know, I mean for a lot of News Islanders,

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Speaker 3: this really impacted their I don't mean to be to

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Speaker 3: disrespect on that, but you know it impacted the confidence

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Speaker 3: and institutions, and there is a public good in having

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Speaker 3: and even if everything was justified, we should be a

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Speaker 3: mature democracy that does require our leaders to front up.

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Speaker 3: I think it's a real failing on the commissioners on

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Speaker 3: this for not actually understanding what the job is. This

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Speaker 3: idea that well, we don't want it to turn adversarial

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Speaker 3: or political. Really yeah, well politics is the accountability mechanism here,

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Speaker 3: I agree.

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Speaker 2: What do you think, Jack.

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Speaker 4: Well? I'm reading a press release from New Zealand first,

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Speaker 4: when the Phase two of the COVID inquiry was announced

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Speaker 4: at which point you might remember they invoked the agree

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Speaker 4: to disagree clause. So what New Zealand first wanted was

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Speaker 4: for the first phase to be scrapped and expanded. But

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Speaker 4: in reading this press release, they do say they support

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Speaker 4: the Phase two of the second of the Commission of Inquiry,

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Speaker 4: which is interesting because, of course the Phase two terms

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Speaker 4: of reference explicitly stated that it would be the period

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Speaker 4: from February twenty twenty one. I mean, I think both

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Speaker 4: of the phases of the COVID Inquiry have been imperfect.

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Speaker 4: I think the first phase had two narrow terms of reference.

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Speaker 4: I think there are a couple of vital things, including

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Speaker 4: vaccine efficacy in monetary policy, that should have been sitted

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Speaker 4: in the first phase. And the second phase, I think

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Speaker 4: it's just a continuation of the politicization of all of this,

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Speaker 4: and that if you really wanted an earnest accounting for

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Speaker 4: the COVID decisions, and I think we all deserve it,

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Speaker 4: I think it's a missed opportunity for politicians not to

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Speaker 4: be fronting publicly this time around. But if you really

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Speaker 4: wanted a sincere accounting for those decisions, surely you go

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Speaker 4: from the start of the pandemic wouldn't you, So, you know,

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Speaker 4: for Wells and Peters to say, oh, look I'm prepared

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Speaker 4: to appear before it. Well that's well and good. But

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Speaker 4: he was a private citizen. He wasn't a member of

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Speaker 4: a parliament during the period the second phases.

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Speaker 2: Considerently any of us could just appear and do the

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Speaker 2: same thing. Hey, guys, thank you as always appreciated. Jack Tame,

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Speaker 2: Jordan Williams a huddle.

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