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Speaker 1: Well, Razibank did what they were expected to do yesterday,

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Speaker 1: but the overarching theme, of course, is one of massive uncertainty.

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Speaker 1: In this morning's events haven't helped New Zealand Initiative Chief

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Speaker 1: economists Ic Crampton's with us Eric morning.

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Speaker 2: Good morning.

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Speaker 1: Can you believe what you're see?

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Speaker 2: Well? I was expecting more chaos and we're still getting it.

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Speaker 2: So it had a bit of insomnia. Wake up at

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Speaker 2: four in the morning, Okay, tariffs is still on. Wake

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Speaker 2: up at six thirty. Okay, tariffs look like they're going

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Speaker 2: to be off. It is really hard for any business

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Speaker 2: to plan in this kind of environment. It's the chaos

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Speaker 2: is just going to continue.

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Speaker 1: Do you reckon he's going to plan or not?

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Speaker 2: No, I think he's just liked tariffs. I think that

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Speaker 2: the plans that get suggested are expost rationalizations. People see

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Speaker 2: some way that the market has moved that might potentially

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Speaker 2: be beneficial for something that Trump might or have wanted

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Speaker 2: to have done, and then reason that that must have

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Speaker 2: been the reason for it. In Congress today or I

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Speaker 2: guess are overnight, the guy who's responsible for administering the

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Speaker 2: tariffs was taught looking for two hours about how great

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Speaker 2: the tariffs are and how they're going to keep implementing them,

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Speaker 2: and was told during his speech that Trump had put

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Speaker 2: a ninety day pause on the tariffs. He presumably hadn't

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Speaker 2: known before Trump did it. I don't think that there's

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Speaker 2: any plan here at all.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if this is in your wheelhouse. But Trump,

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Speaker 1: a couple of hours before he made the announcement on

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Speaker 1: truth social said now's a great time to buy and

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Speaker 1: he signed it off DJT, which is crypto. Is he

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Speaker 1: allowed to do?

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Speaker 2: Is that legal? It's hard to tell anymore. Whatever Congress

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Speaker 2: has to be willing to enforce, and so to the courts. Right,

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Speaker 2: the courts could step in. Congress could be stopping him

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Speaker 2: on all of this. You wonder what the heck. For

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Speaker 2: a while prior to this, there's been all kinds of

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Speaker 2: mini scandals in congressional trading. So there's a Twitter account

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Speaker 2: that would follow Nancy Pelosi's stock picks, and she's always

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Speaker 2: very good at picking which stocks are going to move

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Speaker 2: and people are always suspicious about it. So you could

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Speaker 2: get a stock index that just follow her trades. I

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Speaker 2: would love to know what members of the administration's trades

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Speaker 2: have been over the past day, because when markets swing

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Speaker 2: this wildly, it's like Banana Republic stuff, where if you've

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Speaker 2: got inside knowledge a little bit ahead, while you can

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Speaker 2: front run the market.

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Speaker 1: It's unreal. Line just quickly on New Zealand twenty five

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Speaker 1: is there in your view another twenty five? Or what

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Speaker 1: chance fifty is three neutral? Is it two to seventy

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Speaker 1: five neutral?

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Speaker 2: Now everything's going to depend on what's coming out of

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Speaker 2: the US. There is good chance of stag inflation, where

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Speaker 2: the US puts itself into recession through deliberate policy choices

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Speaker 2: that the Fed has to try to respond to that.

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Speaker 2: There's a chance that that could go badly. Rising inflation

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Speaker 2: generally requires an increase in interest rates to deal with it.

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Speaker 2: But if you're having LGDP dropping more quickly than that

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Speaker 2: because of the craziness coming out of the administration, then

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Speaker 2: that can push you into pretty bad economic territory. The

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank here is going to have to be watching

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Speaker 2: all of that very carefully. And also what's happening then

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Speaker 2: in China because they're getting hammered now with one hundred

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Speaker 2: and twenty five percent on tie well it.

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Speaker 1: Was five minutes ago. Who the hell knows? Eric Listen,

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Speaker 1: I appreciate it very much. Eric Crampton, New Zealand Initiative

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Speaker 1: Chief Chief Economists. Trump's got the full court of the

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Speaker 1: White House full of cars again. The other day was

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Speaker 1: tasel DIT's and as Karen and indycaw he didn't seem

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Speaker 1: to know which was which, which is a problem in

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Speaker 1: all of itself. But he is talking about the tariffs.

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Speaker 1: I thought that people were jumping a little bit out

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Speaker 1: of line. They were getting yippie, you know, they were

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Speaker 1: getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid, unlike

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Speaker 1: these champions, because we have a big job to do.

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Speaker 2: No other president would have done what I did.

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Speaker 1: No other president I know the presidents, they wouldn't have

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Speaker 1: done it, and it had to be done. No all

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Speaker 1: the presidents claim me now to know Washington and just

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Speaker 1: just stopping yippie.

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Speaker 2: For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to

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Speaker 2: news talks it'd B from six am weekdays, or follow

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Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio.