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Speaker 1: Jeremy Hutton from Milford's with near the Rose Garden, nine

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Speaker 1: am tomorrow our time. It's all on for young and old.

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Speaker 1: What are you looking for in this Trump announcement, Jeremy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right, Ryan. So financial markets have been very

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Speaker 2: focused on this tariff event, and you're right nine am

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Speaker 2: tomorrow morning. I think a lot of investors and traders

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Speaker 2: will be glued to their screens. But from a New

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Speaker 2: Zealand perspective, you know, there's still a little bit of

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Speaker 2: hope that we can fly under the radar. We won't

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Speaker 2: be able to avoid the universal tariff, which is one

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Speaker 2: limb that seems very likely to come in. That will

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Speaker 2: be negative for some of our key exports into the US,

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Speaker 2: so think wine, meat and some dairy products. But then

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Speaker 2: on the reciprocal tariffs, that's another limb. We do have

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Speaker 2: very low tariffs of US imports into New Zealand, so

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Speaker 2: that's a theoretical tick in the good box for US there.

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Speaker 2: And then the third limb, so Trump does seem very

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Speaker 2: fixated on US trade deficits. Now, the US does have

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Speaker 2: a small trade deficit with New Zealand, but again it's

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Speaker 2: not too bad, especially compared to some other countries like China,

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Speaker 2: so maybe also a small tick for US there. But

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Speaker 2: of course, these things are moving around a lot, and

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Speaker 2: we're just gonna have to wait and see for tomorrow morning.

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Speaker 1: Global markets have been moving around a lot, although they've

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Speaker 1: settled down a bit this week. How's the inset expen today?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, global markets in general have had to sell off

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Speaker 2: on this tariff news uncertainty though, though you're right, you know,

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Speaker 2: a small rally this week, but you know, to some extent,

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Speaker 2: markets have been assuming the worst news for now with

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Speaker 2: this uncertainty, and you know, they're they're seeing these tariffs

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Speaker 2: as stagflationary, so you know, in other words, that's very

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Speaker 2: low economic growth and potentially inflationary as as prices could

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Speaker 2: rise as well, and markets do hate this stagflationary environment.

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Speaker 2: They're getting none of the interest rate cuts that they

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Speaker 2: are expecting at the start of the year and also

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Speaker 2: some potentially lower earnings from companies going forward, so it

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Speaker 2: could be a bit of a bit of an ugly situation.

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Speaker 2: And you know, as a response to this, you know

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Speaker 2: the techivy NASDAK that's off around twelve percent from the

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Speaker 2: February highs. The SMP is off eight percent, but the

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Speaker 2: Injidex has feared a little bit better. It's only our

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Speaker 2: five and a half percent, And that does make sense

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Speaker 2: given the relative lack of focus that these tariffs have

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Speaker 2: had on New Zealand.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, let's hope it stays that way. Hey, although

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Speaker 1: maybe not for Fisher and Pike with healthcare. They're quite

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Speaker 1: exposed to America, aren't they.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Fisher and pikeal healthcare that appears the most impacted

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Speaker 2: from the New Zealand the Intertex companies, and that share

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Speaker 2: prices down around eleven percent since all the tariff news began.

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Speaker 2: And effectively, this is Fisher and PIKEL. They you know,

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Speaker 2: they're manufacturing a decent amount of product in Mexico which

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Speaker 2: they then export into the US. And this is exactly

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Speaker 2: the type of business that has been right in Trump's

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Speaker 2: firing line. He's trying to reshure this type of business.

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Speaker 2: A few counters to that, though, you know, Fisher and

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Speaker 2: pikel is a fantastic business, and it operates in a

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Speaker 2: very defensive sector, which is medical devices. So they do

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Speaker 2: have a few mitigants they can go to, and they

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Speaker 2: have released the market already that they think they can

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Speaker 2: offset around half of the cost of these tariffs, mainly

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Speaker 2: by just switching their exports to or from New Zealand

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Speaker 2: from Mexico, so they do have a few options. But

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Speaker 2: remember Fisher and pikel It is our largest listed company.

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Speaker 2: It's around fifteen percent of the incidex index, so you

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Speaker 2: know these tariffs can still have a material impact on

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Speaker 2: the local market.

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Speaker 1: Here, nice one, Jeremy Nice heavy on the show as always,

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Speaker 1: Jeremy houton Milford Asset Management. For more from Heather Duplessy

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