1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:02,840 Speaker 1: Now Shane solely harbor asset management is with me right now? 2 00:00:02,840 --> 00:00:03,480 Speaker 1: Has Shane? 3 00:00:03,960 --> 00:00:04,560 Speaker 2: And I hear that? 4 00:00:04,720 --> 00:00:07,480 Speaker 1: Okay, So the latest economic data suggests we're still going 5 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:08,400 Speaker 1: a bit backwards, are we. 6 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:12,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, Look the beings of businesses on performance of services next, 7 00:00:12,240 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 2: it fell to forty seven point five for the month 8 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:17,360 Speaker 2: of August, down from forty eight point nine last month 9 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:21,119 Speaker 2: in July. I'm remembering that measure below fifty that means 10 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 2: the activity is sling. This August number is actually the 11 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 2: eighteenth month in a row of contraction. So the unicator 12 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 2: suggesting the economy is still contracting in the third quarter 13 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:34,360 Speaker 2: recovery struggling to gain momentum. So maybe not enough features. 14 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 1: Maybe not enough. And what about the Chinese economic data, 15 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:39,120 Speaker 1: what's that saying? 16 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:43,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, unfortunately another mess, you know, wasn't massive mess, but 17 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:46,839 Speaker 2: it's again a trend where we're seeing the Chinese economy 18 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:49,280 Speaker 2: and not really reacting to some of the similars that' 19 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:51,599 Speaker 2: spent and out studio in the years and thus trual 20 00:00:51,680 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 2: output for August it was up five point two percent. 21 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:57,639 Speaker 2: That's a year on year that was lower than expectation 22 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:00,640 Speaker 2: of five point six. The fixed investment rows half a 23 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:03,280 Speaker 2: percent year and year estimate was one and a half 24 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:07,119 Speaker 2: and August resale sales were up three point four percent. 25 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 2: Estimate was three point next so miss miss miss not 26 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 2: surprising if we did see some more similars from Chinese authorities. 27 00:01:13,720 --> 00:01:16,080 Speaker 2: They have got this GDP target for the full year 28 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 2: of five percent, so their economic growth target is five percent, 29 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:21,320 Speaker 2: and they'll probably try and get there with some stimulus. 30 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 1: Now, what are you expecting from the feed Reserve later 31 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:24,880 Speaker 1: this week? 32 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:28,399 Speaker 2: So yeah, it's a big week for central banks. We've 33 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 2: got four central banks talking this week. The big one, 34 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:34,040 Speaker 2: of course, is the US Federal Reserve. That precision is 35 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:37,679 Speaker 2: out on Thursday morning, zell in time. The current rate 36 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 2: is four point twenty five to four point five in 37 00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 2: the USA A range. The market's very confident it's going 38 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 2: to be a zero point twenty five cut to our 39 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 2: four to four point two five range. In fact, ninety 40 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 2: three percent probability heither of that being priced and the 41 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 2: other seven percent the balance that's actually for our half 42 00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 2: a percent fifty basis point cut. And mister Trump's come 43 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 2: out this morning is zell in time, and so he's 44 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:01,840 Speaker 2: expecting a big cut. Guess is the percent and when 45 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 2: we look at what's set me in with the economy, 46 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 2: there is some slowing down and confidence, so perhaps there 47 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 2: is a bit of similars needed. And certainly the other 48 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:10,840 Speaker 2: thing we've got to think about is capital markets have 49 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 2: run quite hard in the expectation of raatcut, so there's 50 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 2: always the quantum of the move and the commentary will 51 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 2: influence things. Then backing them, we'll got the Bank of Canada, 52 00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 2: Bank of England and Bank of Japan out lady this week. 53 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 2: Bank of Canada probably cut as well, given their economy 54 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 2: is being hit by terraffs. 55 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:29,359 Speaker 1: Yeah, now, a whole bunch of company news here in 56 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 1: New Zealand. What caught your eye? 57 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, look, it was actually lots of little nuggets today 58 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 2: Pacific ch this is the producer by the cancer detection tests. 59 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:40,120 Speaker 2: They have a little bit of a win one of 60 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 2: the US regulators saying, hey, well, look we're going to 61 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:45,839 Speaker 2: consider covering insurance for some of their tests. Stop price 62 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:48,000 Speaker 2: went up twenty four percent. A long way to go 63 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 2: there in that process, but it's a good step. Spark 64 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:52,959 Speaker 2: some more changes in the leadership team to get to 65 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:56,120 Speaker 2: their f y thirty ambitions. And what she didn't really 66 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:58,079 Speaker 2: help sparks she placed down over the one point three 67 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 2: percent Aukland Airport. Bit of an improvement there in traffic. They' 68 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:03,919 Speaker 2: who are two percent increase in the inertial passengers in 69 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:06,520 Speaker 2: August for the month and they're actually seeing some bigger 70 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 2: aircraft coming on here there's a five percent increase in 71 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 2: the aircraft that she brought us up one. Maybe you've 72 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:12,960 Speaker 2: got a little bit of a boost from the New 73 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 2: Zealand government seventy million events boost, tourism boost and baby 74 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:20,360 Speaker 2: two and then finally we had literacy, general contact energy. 75 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 2: The August operating steps were but better than expected, higher gifteneral, 76 00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 2: higher hydro lake production. So she probably stored down one 77 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 2: percent on the day, so but better in general across 78 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:32,320 Speaker 2: the board. 79 00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 1: Because St Shane thanks so much running us through at 80 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 1: Shane solely harbor asset management. 81 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 2: For more from hither Duplessy Alan Drive, listen live to 82 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 2: news talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow 83 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio.