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Speaker 1: Time for some analysis on the changing geopolitical landscape in

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Speaker 1: our backyard and indeed on the other side of the world.

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Speaker 1: The chunk of the Chinese Navy has caused consternation here

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Speaker 1: and in Australia, while the meltdown at the White House

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Speaker 1: over the weekend has led to panic emergency in Europe

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Speaker 1: over Ukraine. Mcgran's thirty five year AfD VET these days,

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Speaker 1: senior fellow and in Military Studies at the Lower Institute

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Speaker 1: in Australia, is back with us. Very good morning to you.

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Speaker 2: Good morning mates.

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Speaker 1: Before before we get to the White House and everything

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Speaker 1: that's happened in the war in Ukraine, can we just

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Speaker 1: deal quickly with the Chinese the warships which have circumnavigated Australia.

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Speaker 1: As far as I can work out, what changes, if anything,

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Speaker 1: as a result of what happened in these last few days,

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Speaker 1: Well it.

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Speaker 2: May change nothing, but hopefully it will wake people up

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Speaker 2: to the threat that the Chinese Navy now poses to

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Speaker 2: regions far away from the Chinese homeland. I mean, there's

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Speaker 2: no reason for Chinese task forces to be sailing in

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Speaker 2: the waters of Australia and New Zealand. There's no threat

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Speaker 2: to them. Here. We're not stopping in a national tray.

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Speaker 2: This is a direct message to the governments of Australia

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Speaker 2: and New zeal And the United States.

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Speaker 1: What's the message, Well, the message.

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Speaker 2: Is we'll go wherever we want, whenever we want. That

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Speaker 2: we can threaten your trade if you decide to help

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Speaker 2: Taiwan in any contingency. And it's also a test to

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Speaker 2: see what the strength of the Australian alliance is with

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Speaker 2: America at the moment, in the wake of what's been

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Speaker 2: going on in.

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Speaker 1: Europe, there seems to be a general reaction globally and

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Speaker 1: this is not just the Chinese and as part of

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Speaker 1: the world, but the war in general that everybody needs

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Speaker 1: to spend more on defense. Is that ultimately, do you

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Speaker 1: think where this is going?

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Speaker 2: It's absolutely going there and hopefully we'll go there pretty quickly.

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Speaker 2: For both Australia and New Zealand, we both need to

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Speaker 2: step up our games.

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Speaker 1: By how much and what For Australia do you get?

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Speaker 1: What do you need and what difference would it make?

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Speaker 2: Well, there's a bunch of things Australia needs to do

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Speaker 2: first and foremost we need to expand out domestic defense

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Speaker 2: industry and we need to build more stuff here. Both

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Speaker 2: Australia and New Zealand will be at the back of

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Speaker 2: the line for defense manufactures if anything ever happens, We

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Speaker 2: need to build stuff ourselves. We also need larger military forces,

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Speaker 2: not just navies, but armies and air forces are required,

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Speaker 2: one for the deterrent effect they provide, but two to

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Speaker 2: be able to respond to crises in the region and

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Speaker 2: beyond if required.

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Speaker 1: As far as the Chinese are concerned, I'm sure you're

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Speaker 1: following the situation with New Zealand and Rara. It's Honga

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Speaker 1: and Mark Brown went up and signed a cooperative deal

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Speaker 1: with the Chinese last week. How do you balance what

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Speaker 1: China wants in the Pacific versus the defense versus the

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Speaker 1: trade relationship that both our countries have with them.

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean, we should be able to cooperate with China,

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Speaker 2: but at the end of the day, it can't be

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Speaker 2: at the cost of our own sovereignty, in our own prosperity.

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Speaker 2: And what we're seeing more and more is China is

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Speaker 2: trying to subvert different governments throughout the region to align

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Speaker 2: with China or turn away from their relationships with other countries.

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Speaker 2: That's just not in Australia and New Zealand's interests. So

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Speaker 2: where we can cooperate, we do. That's the policy of

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Speaker 2: Australia New Zealand. But where we differ, we're going to

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Speaker 2: have to be able to invest in pushing back.

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Speaker 1: How much interest would there have been in what the

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Speaker 1: Chinese did last week in this part of the world

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Speaker 1: from the.

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Speaker 2: US AH, there's certainly a lot of interest in the

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Speaker 2: headquarters of Indo pay Coom in Hawaii. I mean, they

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Speaker 2: take very seriously these kind of events and I have

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Speaker 2: no doubt that the Australian New Zealand militaries would have

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Speaker 2: been sharing a lot of information from the event with them.

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Speaker 2: But they also have a lot of other bits of

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Speaker 2: the specific to look at, so this will just be

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Speaker 2: one of many things they're watching.

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Speaker 1: And from the depend point of view, you've got an

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Speaker 1: election coming up very shortly, we still don't know exactly when,

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Speaker 1: but the policy settings completely different depending on who wins.

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Speaker 2: I think there will be differences. We've already started the

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Speaker 2: bidding contests on the fence, start with the Opposition leader

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Speaker 2: Peter Dunton announcing out of the weekend we'll buy another

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Speaker 2: twenty eight f thirty five fighters. I expect that, unlike

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Speaker 2: two weeks ago, defense may now be a more important

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Speaker 2: part of the election team.

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Speaker 1: Interesting, right BECA. As far as Ukraine's concerned, and what

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Speaker 1: happened to the White House over the weekend, where does

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Speaker 1: this leave Europe and are they capable of standing alone

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Speaker 1: in defense of Ukraine without America?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the over Office ambush was first and

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Speaker 2: foremost a crisis of confidence in America's alliances. That is

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Speaker 2: for probably the worst manifestation of what happened, among others

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Speaker 2: for Europe. We've just seen the outcomes of the summit

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Speaker 2: in London held by the British Prime Minister, where they've

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Speaker 2: all committed to spend more. Well, we've heard that before

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Speaker 2: this time Europe really must stand up for going to

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Speaker 2: help Ukraine and deter further Russian aggression to achieve.

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Speaker 1: What three years in, what have we got other than

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Speaker 1: the stalemate?

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Speaker 2: Well, first and foremost, so Ukraine doesn't lose. That would

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Speaker 2: be not only a gross moral tragedy for the people

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Speaker 2: of Ukraine. We know what Russia will do to them

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Speaker 2: because we've been watching them torture and murder their way

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Speaker 2: through the occupied territories. But Russia will then turn its

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Speaker 2: attention to other countries. Has already said if wants to

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Speaker 2: attack countries in the Baltics and in Scandinavia because one

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Speaker 2: they're in NATO and two they see them as part

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Speaker 2: of the Russian sphere of influence.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, what happens to NATO now, if anything, as a

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Speaker 1: result of what happened to the White House over.

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Speaker 2: The weekend, Well, I think cool heads will always help

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Speaker 2: hope that NATO remains, but it's going to go through

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Speaker 2: a very trying period at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: It's gone through trying periods in the past. It's not

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Speaker 2: the first time there's been a crisis of confidence among members.

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Speaker 2: Might recall nuclear process in the eighties and these kind

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Speaker 2: of things. So you know, it's a difficult period, but

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Speaker 2: it's in all our interests for NATO to endure and

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Speaker 2: continue to increase investment in defense, intelligence and other areas.

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Speaker 1: So what do you think came out of this circled

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Speaker 1: emergency that Starmer was leading. It seems to be more money,

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Speaker 1: more promises, more equipment with a view to doing what

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Speaker 1: holding their own or advancing the cause or maybe heading

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Speaker 1: towards some sort of ceasefire or peace deal.

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Speaker 2: Well, there's a couple of things there. Firstly, be able

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Speaker 2: to give Ukraine the tools to ensure that is able

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Speaker 2: to negotiate a war termination agreement that's favorable to them,

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Speaker 2: including territory, sovereignty, security, its relationships with the West. I

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Speaker 2: think that's a very important outcome. The second one is

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Speaker 2: just to step up the production of defense material in

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Speaker 2: Europe to benefit all of Europe, to provide this deterrent

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Speaker 2: against Russian aggression. And third, you're already seeing discussions emerge

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Speaker 2: around a new nuclear umbrella provided not by America but

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Speaker 2: by Britain and other European nations. That will be a

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Speaker 2: very expensive undertaking and a politically difficult one and will

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Speaker 2: be interesting to watch how that debate matures.

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Speaker 1: Is united on this, and it seems Europe can agree

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Speaker 1: on nothing because they've each got their own individual problems,

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Speaker 1: but on this are they united.

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Speaker 2: Well, you didn't have every European country at this summit,

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Speaker 2: probably for good reason. Countries like Hungary would probably stand

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Speaker 2: against this. They're very much Russian sympathizers. So you know,

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Speaker 2: the head of the EU is underlying will obviously put

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Speaker 2: a plan to the EU Council this week and it

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Speaker 2: will be interesting to see which countries actually put up

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Speaker 2: their hands and say we don't agree.

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Speaker 1: What about someone like Germany? Is was he trying to

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Speaker 1: patch together a government at the moment? Are they still

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Speaker 1: heavily involved in this and pivotal to whatever they decide

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Speaker 1: going forward?

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Speaker 2: Absolutely? I mean the new Chancellor has come out strongly

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Speaker 2: in support of Ukraine and strongly in support of enhanced

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Speaker 2: European defense capability, and we shouldn't forget that even before him,

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Speaker 2: Germany was the second largest contributor of aid to Ukraine

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Speaker 2: after the United States. They really have provided a massive

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Speaker 2: amount of economic and military aid, and I expect that

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Speaker 2: will probably have to continue or increase.

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Speaker 1: What do you think happens to the mineral deal even

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Speaker 1: if they patch this up? Is that a way forward

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Speaker 1: in some way, shape or form or not.

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Speaker 2: I think it is. I mean, you know, the details

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Speaker 2: will obviously be negotiated. I mean, if you read the text,

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Speaker 2: there's no detail except that will negotiate the detail in

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Speaker 2: a follow on treating. But what it does do is

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Speaker 2: at least provides a foundational relationship between the United States

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Speaker 2: and Ukraine and gives the US an interest in defending Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: Both of those things are important, and hopefully they'll be

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Speaker 2: able to work their way back to that.

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Speaker 1: From the Trump point of view, that seemed to be

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Speaker 1: the thinking, didn't that, yes, there's no security guarantee, but

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Speaker 1: if we're on the ground, if we've got interests in

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Speaker 1: that country, that in and of itself is a security

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Speaker 1: guarantee of sorts. Is that how you see it?

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Speaker 2: Well, that's how Trump's now portrayed in his latest post

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Speaker 2: on his social media. I think there's a bit of

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Speaker 2: backcasting there, but there's some truth in it as well,

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Speaker 2: that if America has an economic interest in Ukraine, it

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Speaker 2: also has a security interest.

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Speaker 1: So also, the Americans have sent somebody to meet Putin,

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Speaker 1: and from what we can gather, Putin's giving nothing like

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Speaker 1: there is nothing to give up here. Is that a

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Speaker 1: problem or is that just bluster?

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Speaker 2: It's a really big problem because the Americans have given

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Speaker 2: Putin everything he wanted before they even start negotiating, and

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Speaker 2: over the weekend cutting cyber operations against Russia is just

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Speaker 2: a ludicrous kind of strategy. We're being pursued at the

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Speaker 2: moment by the Americans with behavior towards the Russians. I mean,

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Speaker 2: what the Russians have done in the last twenty years

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Speaker 2: have been against American interests. They are not going to

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Speaker 2: change their perspective in the world. And the reason they're

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Speaker 2: aligned with China is they don't like the system the

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Speaker 2: Americans have set up since the end of the Second

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Speaker 2: World War, and regardless of what Trump does, they're going

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Speaker 2: to continue to want to change it.

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Speaker 1: All right, give it. What do we do here? Where

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Speaker 1: are we going here? And I bring you in six months,

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Speaker 1: one year? I mean, as we got any further down

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Speaker 1: the track or not?

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Speaker 2: Well, I hope so, I hope that talk in Europe

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Speaker 2: has turned into action, but talk in Australia and New

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Speaker 2: Zealand has to turn into action. You know, we need

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Speaker 2: to step up investment in defense, We need to step

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Speaker 2: up investment in diplomacy, with the number one priority being

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Speaker 2: deterring any kind of conflict in our region.

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Speaker 1: All right, listen, mate, It's always good to have you

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Speaker 1: on the program. Appreciate it very much. Mcryan thirty five

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Speaker 1: years in the AfD, Senior Fellow these days and Military

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Speaker 1: studies at the Loewy Institute. For more from the Mic

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Speaker 1: Asking Breakfast listen live to news talks that'd be from

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Speaker 1: six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio