1
00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:03,600
Speaker 1: Brian Bridge, Peter Lewis, Is that Asia Business correspondent Peter

2
00:00:03,640 --> 00:00:04,080
Speaker 1: Good Evening?

3
00:00:04,880 --> 00:00:05,440
Speaker 2: Hello? Ryan?

4
00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:09,079
Speaker 1: Now, Donald Trump did tease that Chijing Ping would be

5
00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:12,240
Speaker 1: visiting the US soon. But how soon could he visit?

6
00:00:13,200 --> 00:00:16,119
Speaker 2: He didn't say, and indeed it was a tease. He

7
00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:20,320
Speaker 2: keeps on touting this really good relationship that he has

8
00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:24,400
Speaker 2: with Chijingping, that although they have their differences on trade

9
00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:27,760
Speaker 2: and some other issues, they're good mates. They like each other,

10
00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:31,520
Speaker 2: get on with each other. China said nothing at all

11
00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:36,239
Speaker 2: publicly about this meeting, and personally, I think it's very

12
00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:39,320
Speaker 2: unlikely that it will happen at the moment under the

13
00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:43,839
Speaker 2: current circumstances, because I don't think Donald Trump's relationship with

14
00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:47,320
Speaker 2: Jijing Ping is as good as he likes to make out.

15
00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:51,200
Speaker 2: But also a visit to the US right now will

16
00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:56,320
Speaker 2: be a huge risk for President Jijingping and China anyway

17
00:00:56,920 --> 00:00:59,840
Speaker 2: doesn't like to do these visits until all the details

18
00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:03,440
Speaker 2: sorted out in advance. You know exactly what's going to happen.

19
00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:06,040
Speaker 2: Who's going to say, what deals are going to be signed,

20
00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:09,720
Speaker 2: what agreements are going to be made. Donald Trump likes

21
00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:12,360
Speaker 2: to make it up while they're there, so nothing is

22
00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:15,120
Speaker 2: agreed in advance, and it's all done sort of on

23
00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:18,400
Speaker 2: the spot. So it's a risk for President G. I mean,

24
00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:21,000
Speaker 2: what happens if Donald Trump does a Zelinsky on him

25
00:01:21,040 --> 00:01:23,039
Speaker 2: and throws him out of the White House or something,

26
00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:26,800
Speaker 2: or more likely, you know, slapped tariffs on China while

27
00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:29,720
Speaker 2: he's there because they haven't got an agreement that he wants.

28
00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:33,319
Speaker 2: And you know, the local media here says that when

29
00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:39,480
Speaker 2: President g went to Washington in Trump's first term, he

30
00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:43,039
Speaker 2: concluded afterwards that it was a mistake and that he

31
00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:47,080
Speaker 2: shouldn't really have gone. And in particular right now, there's

32
00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:50,200
Speaker 2: a sort of similar situation because the US is doing

33
00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:53,960
Speaker 2: this China related trade study. Trump has ordered that to

34
00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:57,240
Speaker 2: be completed by April first, so there's no way that

35
00:01:57,280 --> 00:02:00,520
Speaker 2: she's going to go to China before that before they

36
00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:03,520
Speaker 2: see the results of what this trade study is and

37
00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:07,440
Speaker 2: what conclusions the US has come to about China trade.

38
00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:11,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, all just a bit too volatile in the Oval Office.

39
00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:16,600
Speaker 1: It sounds like good news for exporters. China's beaten expectations

40
00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:20,440
Speaker 1: on its economic expectations. I've had strong retail sales, Peter.

41
00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:24,560
Speaker 2: Yes, it has. I mean the numbers for January and

42
00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:27,600
Speaker 2: February combined together, so we get the numbers from those

43
00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:31,000
Speaker 2: two months. That's because the Lunar New Year Festival comes

44
00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:34,280
Speaker 2: sometime in January or February each year and it distorts

45
00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:36,400
Speaker 2: the figures, so they combine the two together. But if

46
00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:38,960
Speaker 2: you look at them, retail sales are up about four

47
00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:45,919
Speaker 2: percent in that period. Consumer spending and industrial production both

48
00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:51,520
Speaker 2: growing more than expected, so on the basics of underlying economy,

49
00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:57,000
Speaker 2: things not looking too bad. However, the supplies in the ointment,

50
00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:01,720
Speaker 2: unemployment rose to a two year high, and youth unemployment

51
00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:07,280
Speaker 2: in particular is surging. That's about seventeen percent. And also

52
00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:12,480
Speaker 2: the property market is still declining. After three years of declines,

53
00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:16,760
Speaker 2: there's still no signs of stabilization in that and that's

54
00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:21,040
Speaker 2: a big problem because it by far the Chinese person's

55
00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:24,799
Speaker 2: biggest asset is property. Several families in many families in

56
00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:27,600
Speaker 2: China owned more than one property, and they're seeing the

57
00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:31,480
Speaker 2: values of them decline, particularly in the secondary markets where

58
00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:35,000
Speaker 2: you don't have the price controls that China puts on

59
00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:38,320
Speaker 2: properties in the way that it does in new build homes,

60
00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:42,240
Speaker 2: and that's affecting their confidence and their willingness to go

61
00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:46,040
Speaker 2: and spend, so it leaves China very reliant on exports

62
00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:50,080
Speaker 2: in an environment where trade is very much under threat.

63
00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:54,720
Speaker 2: So there are vulnerabilities in the Chinese economy. And again

64
00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:56,920
Speaker 2: and again it comes down to the same thing. We

65
00:03:57,000 --> 00:04:01,440
Speaker 2: need consumers to start spending. Are The government's talked about

66
00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:05,120
Speaker 2: all sorts of measures to try and boost consumer spending,

67
00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:08,480
Speaker 2: but so far they haven't really worked. In my view,

68
00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:11,160
Speaker 2: the best way to get consumers to spend is to

69
00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:13,000
Speaker 2: give them more money. If they have more money in

70
00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:15,640
Speaker 2: their pockets, they're more likely to go and spend it.

71
00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:17,480
Speaker 2: And there's a number of ways in which you could

72
00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:20,120
Speaker 2: do that. You could raise the minimum wage, you could

73
00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:24,719
Speaker 2: cut taxes, you could hand out consumption vouchers, and those

74
00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:28,200
Speaker 2: are the ways in which you know, maybe consumers will

75
00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:31,440
Speaker 2: go out and spend. But for various reasons, the Chinese

76
00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:34,080
Speaker 2: government doesn't want to do any of them.

77
00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:39,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, interesting that, Kiddibas. Obviously, the Pacific nation got a

78
00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:44,479
Speaker 1: lot of minerals and metals underneath the ocean floor around it,

79
00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:48,159
Speaker 1: and part of it's easy, and they're eyeing a deal

80
00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:51,120
Speaker 1: with China about potentially mining some of it.

81
00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:54,719
Speaker 2: Yes, that's right. I mean, this is a sort of

82
00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:59,839
Speaker 2: you know, a very potentially a very lucrative business for Quivarti.

83
00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:03,480
Speaker 2: So you know, there's a whole series of nations there,

84
00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:06,000
Speaker 2: as you know, who are all on the forefront of

85
00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:09,000
Speaker 2: this push to try and mine the depths of the

86
00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:13,480
Speaker 2: ocean to get rare earth minerals from there, which are

87
00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:17,640
Speaker 2: believed to be at the ocean bed. They were doing

88
00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:20,120
Speaker 2: a deal with a company called the Metals Company, which

89
00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:24,240
Speaker 2: specializes in trying to get these rare minerals of the

90
00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:28,240
Speaker 2: off the ocean bed, but that fell through, and there's

91
00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:32,040
Speaker 2: a whole range of countries there, Cook Islands, all looking

92
00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:36,159
Speaker 2: at similar things, and they're now talking about doing a

93
00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:41,200
Speaker 2: deal with China, doing a partnership with China to try

94
00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:44,839
Speaker 2: and mine these minerals. Apparently discussions have been opened with

95
00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:48,719
Speaker 2: the Chinese ambassador after that deal with the Metals Company

96
00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:52,080
Speaker 2: fell through. I think the concern for many nations like

97
00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:55,799
Speaker 2: yourselves in New Zealand in Australia is what happens next,

98
00:05:55,920 --> 00:06:00,200
Speaker 2: because these things start in fairly innoculous ways, and then

99
00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:03,480
Speaker 2: before you know it, you've got Chinese vessels, you know,

100
00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:06,640
Speaker 2: docking in ports and China sort of building ports for

101
00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:11,000
Speaker 2: these countries, and it sort of grows and grows, and

102
00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:15,040
Speaker 2: that's what concerns people, I think around the Pacific nations.

103
00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:18,000
Speaker 1: Peter, thank you very much for that update. As always,

104
00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:21,640
Speaker 1: Peter lewis Out Asia Business Correspondent. For more from Hither

105
00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:24,840
Speaker 1: Duplessy Alan Drive, listen live to news talks. It'd be

106
00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:28,800
Speaker 1: from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio