Speaker 1: Kiota.
Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. From the
Speaker 2: streets of New York to around the world, the Mamdani
Speaker 2: Effect is taking shape. Democratic socialist Zorn Mumdani won the
Speaker 2: city's mayoralty earlier this month, sparking a new era when
Speaker 2: an election turnout higher than any race in the last
Speaker 2: fifty years. But this isn't just an American story. The
Speaker 2: energy around this movement, It's bold ideas on justice, economics
Speaker 2: and climate change is resonating with jen Z far beyond
Speaker 2: the US. So what exactly is the Mamdani effect and
Speaker 2: what does it tell us about the future of politics today?
Speaker 2: On the Front Page, Victoria University of Wellington se lecturer
Speaker 2: doctor Mona Quiel is with us to discuss how this
Speaker 2: kind of politics could redefine the power and purpose of
Speaker 2: the next generation of leaders. So, Minor, when people talk
Speaker 2: about the Mamdani effect, what do you reckon that actually means?
Speaker 3: Yeah, So over all, I would say it's mostly like
Speaker 3: a buzzword that has made the rounds. In the context
Speaker 3: of the election, when Mandami was elected mayor of New York,
Speaker 3: so it's actually more term that like journalists have coined
Speaker 3: to describe the excitement around the Mandami election, then it's
Speaker 3: actually a phenomena or an academic term. So he's a
Speaker 3: member of the Democratic Party, he's identifying as a socialist,
Speaker 3: he's young, and he is Muslim, and so this is
Speaker 3: the opposite of the reactionary republican Trump politician type that
Speaker 3: the US has recently mostly seen. So he's also the
Speaker 3: opposite of the moderate oldies that the Democratic Party has
Speaker 3: presented in the decades, such as Joe Biden. So that
Speaker 3: someone like him could still get elected was actually a symbol,
Speaker 3: i would say, of hope for all those who are
Speaker 3: more progressive in the country. And so it got coined
Speaker 3: at as the Mandami effect because it showed that politics
Speaker 3: or the politics that he stands for, that those are
Speaker 3: still successfully drawing voters. And so more than it being
Speaker 3: an actual effect, it tells you something also about the
Speaker 3: journalists in the US who came up with that term
Speaker 3: and their hopes for the country and for themselves. Because
Speaker 3: the media is under a lot of pressure in the
Speaker 3: USA from the Trump administration at the moment, and the
Speaker 3: freedom of present independent media coverage is actually at stake,
Speaker 3: So for journalists, they had high hopes for him, and
Speaker 3: so I think this was one of the reasons why
Speaker 3: they took quickly came up with that term, the Mandami effect,
Speaker 3: and they hoped it would be kind of a trend,
Speaker 3: and of course it's very catchy. So the Mandami effect
Speaker 3: as a headline gets you more clicks than thirty four
Speaker 3: year old socialists and Muslim elected mayor of New York.
Speaker 3: So the fact that he was an unlikely candidate with
Speaker 3: unlikely politics and then he that he can get elected
Speaker 3: already has a lot of news value per se. But
Speaker 3: when it coincidence with the fact and the hope of
Speaker 3: many journalists who are also more on the left side,
Speaker 3: leaving Vox News aside, then basically media hype is born,
Speaker 3: and of course that quickly gets named. So in other words,
Speaker 3: I would say the Mandami effect tells you at least
Speaker 3: as much about journalists in the US who are currently
Speaker 3: under pressure as it tells you about voters preferences.
Speaker 2: And what kind of issues did he run on that
Speaker 2: were seen so out of left field?
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I think his branding was kind of different
Speaker 3: from what we currently see in US politics. So He's
Speaker 3: the opposite of the reactionary Trump politics of this administration
Speaker 3: and the Republicans. So for many that actually makes him
Speaker 3: like a hero who kind of can turn the Handmaid's
Speaker 3: Tales story around. His platform send us a lot around
Speaker 3: equity and affordability, and that includes things like rand control
Speaker 3: or raising the minimum age. So literally opposite of what
Speaker 3: the Trump administration stands for, and so it's also the
Speaker 3: opposite of the so called He's also, I think the
Speaker 3: opposite of the so called Washington elite, and he effectively
Speaker 3: uses this in a sense that surely makes him a
Speaker 3: little bit more left wing populist, and left wing populism
Speaker 3: is more known for redistributional politics, and so that stands
Speaker 3: out in the USA at the moment because it's different
Speaker 3: from the right wing populism that they have seen in
Speaker 3: recent years.
Speaker 2: I quite liked this line from a New Yorker pace
Speaker 2: that I read is written by a journalist there named
Speaker 2: Eric Locke. I'll read it out to here. Mam Dani
Speaker 2: offered his supporters an unsullied message of hope. He emphasized
Speaker 2: the similarities between Trump, Como and Adams all figures forward
Speaker 2: in the New York Political scene of the past century,
Speaker 2: trapped in a psychodrama where nineteen eighty three never ended.
Speaker 2: And I think that that expression gives a really good
Speaker 2: US versus them mentality, And like you said that that
Speaker 2: kind of Washington elite per se, and especially in New
Speaker 2: York as well. You can imagine nineteen eighty three. You've
Speaker 2: got Trump Tower, you've got Golden toilets, you've got Wall Street,
Speaker 2: you know, and it gives you those kind of a
Speaker 2: real picture of what he was kind of fighting against.
Speaker 2: And people resonated with that, really, didn't they.
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, So I do think this is very well captured,
Speaker 3: like the laughing populism, he stands for setting himself aside
Speaker 3: from this elite, and that's actually what popularism is about.
Speaker 3: So the dichotomy of us the people against the elite,
Speaker 3: and even like included like other candidates like in that
Speaker 3: and yeah, you have I think very well described how
Speaker 3: he is different from those elites and the Golden Towers.
Speaker 3: So I did live in upstate New York for a
Speaker 3: long time so and spend all of my weekends in
Speaker 3: New York, so I can relate to what you are
Speaker 3: describing or what the line in that article has been describing,
Speaker 3: and I mean like it really resonated with people, and
Speaker 3: probably particularly also with like Gen Z voters, who stand
Speaker 3: like for it's a different generation, different from previous generation
Speaker 3: in many important ways. So they are more racially and
Speaker 3: ethnically diverse than any previous generation. So I think they're
Speaker 3: even like projected in by twenty twenty six to become
Speaker 3: a majority non white generation. And so basically they are
Speaker 3: also on track to be the most well educated generation
Speaker 3: ever and so highly educated people and also very much
Speaker 3: support redistributional politics more than people with like lower education,
Speaker 3: and of course this has like better chance to resonate
Speaker 3: with people and that generation then it has like probably
Speaker 3: had previous generations, and so in New Yorkers are also
Speaker 3: known as much more progressive than the rest of the country.
Speaker 3: So I think it is still an open question if
Speaker 3: this would have been flying with the rest of the
Speaker 3: country or nationwide. I know some people were quick to
Speaker 3: say this is a nationwide movement, but I think urban
Speaker 3: voters are in general more progressive than rural voters in
Speaker 3: New York are also known to be very progressive, and
Speaker 3: given that it's a very polarized country, I have some
Speaker 3: doubts that he could have gotten elected elsewhere in the US.
Speaker 3: And we are also still talking about the same country
Speaker 3: who in twenty to sixteen and twenty twenty four was
Speaker 3: not ready yet to elect a female president. So one
Speaker 3: progressive mayor does not fully turn that around overnight. And
Speaker 3: the electorate is also not made of of gen zs
Speaker 3: and urban population alone, but surely his like platform of
Speaker 3: equity and affordability he resonated a lot with urban voters,
Speaker 3: progressive voters, and in particular I think gen.
Speaker 4: Zs together we will usher in a generation of change.
Speaker 4: And if we embrace this brave new course, rather than
Speaker 4: fleeing from it, we can respond to oligarchy and authoritarianism
Speaker 4: with the strength it fears, not the appeasement it craves.
Speaker 4: After all, if anyone can show a nation betrayed by
Speaker 4: Donald Trump how to defeat him, it is the city
Speaker 4: that gave rise to him. And if there is any
Speaker 4: way to terrify a despot, it is by dismantling the
Speaker 4: very conditions that allowed him to accumulate power. This is
Speaker 4: not only how we stopped Trump, it's how we stop
Speaker 4: the next one. So, Donald Trump, since I know you're watching,
Speaker 4: I have four words for you turn the volume up.
Speaker 2: And I suppose that Generation Z or gen Z are
Speaker 2: often described as values driven and patient for that systemic change.
Speaker 2: How might Mamdani's leadership and this display of this kind
Speaker 2: of Mamdani effect, I suppose, resonate with or I suppose
Speaker 2: even reshape their expectations of political leaders Yeah.
Speaker 3: So, as I said, we do know they have high education.
Speaker 3: So we have the highest I think level of like
Speaker 3: college educated voters ever in the gen Z generation, and
Speaker 3: so that means more support for read rescript politics. It
Speaker 3: also means, so a lot of surveys have found about
Speaker 3: gen zs in the US that they are more pro governments.
Speaker 3: So that means they do not have this typical like
Speaker 3: help your self attitude, and that has been embraced in
Speaker 3: the US for a long time. And so even Gen
Speaker 3: Z Republicans differ from older Republicans in their attitudes, and
Speaker 3: they are, for example, much more acknowledging racial inequalities. They
Speaker 3: are also less likely than older generations to see the
Speaker 3: USA as superior over other countries. And so in this sense,
Speaker 3: I think Mandami's politics surely have resonated with them. They
Speaker 3: are also digital natives, and so if you think of
Speaker 3: a generation that has no or just probably the earlier
Speaker 3: ones little memory of an area before the smartphone, and
Speaker 3: so they can very well approach through social media, which
Speaker 3: was a cornerstone of his campaign. So whenever ask so, yeah, so,
Speaker 3: I think when asked about political issues, they do not
Speaker 3: differ that much from millennials. So I wouldn't expect a
Speaker 3: huge revolution with all of them becoming eligible to vote.
Speaker 3: But surely a candidate like Mandani has like a much
Speaker 3: better chance to resonate with them than like older candidates
Speaker 3: like Joe Biden, for example.
Speaker 2: Could his style of politics become a template for young
Speaker 2: politicians globally? Do you think? And I'm thinking of New
Speaker 2: Zealand election next year as well.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so, I actually do think it could particularly be
Speaker 3: a template for social democratic and labor parties around the world.
Speaker 3: I wouldn't necessarily say just for young politicians, but I
Speaker 3: think for that you have to look back a little
Speaker 3: bit in time and geographically, because there is something that
Speaker 3: since twenty twelve in Europe has been called pacification. So
Speaker 3: all of the social democratic parties have lost voters in
Speaker 3: like high numbers, and at the same time the far
Speaker 3: right was gaining more and more voters. And so for
Speaker 3: a long time the media has actually spreading the stock
Speaker 3: that the social democratic parties and the labor parties have
Speaker 3: lost voters to the far right, and it was particular
Speaker 3: the working class who ran away. But if you actually
Speaker 3: do look into the data of the European election studies,
Speaker 3: and we do have a lot of data on that,
Speaker 3: you see that the young voters and highly educated ran
Speaker 3: away to the green parties. They think like Green is
Speaker 3: the new rat or is the better left party, whereas
Speaker 3: the far right actually gained its voters from the non
Speaker 3: voter bloc and the conservative parties. But these phenomena happening
Speaker 3: at the same time, and is looking like a scissor
Speaker 3: in a graph. A lot of people thought these phenomena
Speaker 3: were related. Not so much the case. So why did
Speaker 3: the young voters run away to the green parties Because
Speaker 3: they embraced climate change and politics sustainability, education that matters
Speaker 3: for them, making education for free in a lot of countries,
Speaker 3: and LGBTQ pluss rights a lot earlier and more like
Speaker 3: believable than the social democratic parties did, who were late
Speaker 3: adopters of these things. And so meanwhile, the best predictor
Speaker 3: for voting for the center left in Europe is age,
Speaker 3: which means that these parties are dying like a dinosaur.
Speaker 3: And so I would actually recommend to LEF parties around
Speaker 3: the world, if they want to win back like young,
Speaker 3: highly educated voters, to embrace those left progressive policies more
Speaker 3: and not what parts of the European media has been
Speaker 3: suggesting to them for a long time, anti immigration policies
Speaker 3: and left nationalism, because that will drive those young voters
Speaker 3: even further away from them. And so actually it would
Speaker 3: be advisable and they could take a page from that,
Speaker 3: from that playbook and probably yeah, embrace that trend. I
Speaker 3: think actually in New Zealand this might have just been
Speaker 3: a little bit delayed what we have been seeing with
Speaker 3: social democratic parties in Western Europe, so that they have
Speaker 3: not been part of that global decline yet because it
Speaker 3: has been brushed over a little bit, like with an
Speaker 3: attractive young author like to Sinda Adirn and so, but
Speaker 3: also the Labor Party here would be advised to go
Speaker 3: more for those progressive policies. I would say. However, the
Speaker 3: US is still a highly polarized country and so progressiveness
Speaker 3: at least progressiveness at least I think on the national
Speaker 3: level must be prescribed to them in like pretty careful doses,
Speaker 3: or just sprinkled into a Democratic campaign. So because getting
Speaker 3: a Mandami like president elected is proborty, still too much
Speaker 3: of a move for this country, But you I could
Speaker 3: imagine a moderate presidential candidate with a more progressive, younger
Speaker 3: VC choice, maybe so, or at least having people like
Speaker 3: Mandami or Alexandra Ocasio Corotest play a bigger role in
Speaker 3: the Democratic Party in the future. I think this would
Speaker 3: resonate a lot, with the gen Z voters in particular,
Speaker 3: more and more of them becoming like voting age.
Speaker 2: A self proclaimed socialist just won the race for New
Speaker 2: York City mayor. We hit the streets see how Yorkers
Speaker 2: are reacting.
Speaker 5: I was disappointed, he says a lot. He's charismatic, but
Speaker 5: so was Castro.
Speaker 6: I was reluctantly thankful because he was just the best
Speaker 6: out of three that didn't quite work out.
Speaker 4: I do fear for the future of the Democratic Party
Speaker 4: if this is a brand of liberalism that sticks.
Speaker 6: My initial thought, it's embarrassing for thirty four years old
Speaker 6: turn probably the most successful city in the world it's
Speaker 6: a disgrace for a city that was built by Jewish
Speaker 6: immigrants and made it to be the greatest city in
Speaker 6: the world.
Speaker 2: It's funny because I was walking, I'd kind of like
Speaker 2: to take in the energy of the city, especially after
Speaker 2: such a big night.
Speaker 3: I feel like there's a calm energy now, so I
Speaker 3: think there's hope.
Speaker 1: And many people are saying this is a major shift
Speaker 1: in politics in the city. Do you feel that changed today,
Speaker 1: and if so, what fears or hopes do you have?
Speaker 5: First day out calling out Donald Trump, he doesn't know
Speaker 5: who he's getting in the ring with. As Tyson once said,
Speaker 5: everybody has a plan until you get to do the face,
Speaker 5: so will see. I don't think he's going to be
Speaker 5: able to change much.
Speaker 3: I'm a little skeptical about how he's going to get
Speaker 3: everything done. I think that's what a lot of people are.
Speaker 6: I fear that the Democratic Party would keep losing working
Speaker 6: class vords.
Speaker 4: It makes me more cautious.
Speaker 1: I lived in New York most of my life and
Speaker 1: it's a very weird future. I'm going to see. He
Speaker 1: says he's going to give free buses. Who pays for that?
Speaker 1: I do business to pay for that helps nobody. You know,
Speaker 1: the policies he's giving is not beneficial for the.
Speaker 2: City, and especially as well you mentioned before social media,
Speaker 2: and of course I saw everything. I wasn't even looking
Speaker 2: for the Mamdani social media channels and I found them
Speaker 2: upon my I think it was hot girls for Mamdani.
Speaker 2: Then you had the Africans for Mamdani, Muslims for Mamdani,
Speaker 2: all in this really bright colored green. I mean no,
Speaker 2: it wasn't green, it was orange and blue, beautifully just played.
Speaker 2: I mean, it was just it. There must be parties
Speaker 2: around the world studying those Instagram feeds and those TikTok
Speaker 2: fades and seeing what they did, because it did speak
Speaker 2: to current generations and people entering the voter base.
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, so absolutely so. I think his social media
Speaker 3: complaign played a huge role in his success. Social media
Speaker 3: campaigns become more and more important around the world anyway.
Speaker 3: But I think he was successful for basically like three reasons.
Speaker 3: So first of all, he linked very well his online
Speaker 3: content to his offline campaign. So he talked, for example,
Speaker 3: to ordinary people on the streets why they voted for
Speaker 3: Trump and presented his agenda to them, and then he
Speaker 3: put it on TikTok and so offline and online were
Speaker 3: very well connected. The second thing, it was believable, so
Speaker 3: he was using social media naturally so as people of
Speaker 3: his generation do so. With older politicians, it has been
Speaker 3: very in the past. So think of Joe Biden joining
Speaker 3: with like in his late seventies snapchat and he got
Speaker 3: ridiculous by gen Z voters for that. So authenticity matters
Speaker 3: a lot on social media. And this is also why
Speaker 3: influenzas influenza have such like huge followers following ships. So
Speaker 3: for example, Trump is also successful with his audience because
Speaker 3: he is authentic, so even his typos in his social
Speaker 3: media posts are authentic. And I think the third reason
Speaker 3: why his social media campaign was so successful is probably
Speaker 3: he embraced this everyday celebrity politician style as it's called
Speaker 3: in political communication research. So this is like more trying
Speaker 3: to make yourself relatable and very much including influenza style
Speaker 3: elements in your campaign. This is in stark contrast to
Speaker 3: the super celebrity politician of the past that we have
Speaker 3: been seeing in the past, which is more traditional personalization
Speaker 3: streatch and portrays politicians more as like extraordinary charismatic leaders.
Speaker 3: So most politicians these days already mixed post strategies. We
Speaker 3: have seen this from Christopher Luxan in a twenty twenty
Speaker 3: three campaign, who tried to balance that out and presented
Speaker 3: this traditional super celebrity politician more on Facebook where you
Speaker 3: have an older audience, and the everyday celebrity politicians he
Speaker 3: saved for his tiktoks with a younger audience. So I
Speaker 3: think in like the social media age of campaigning, you
Speaker 3: will see this more and more from politicians, and Mandami
Speaker 3: is probably surely one of those who's like at the
Speaker 3: forefront of this. I would think that is actually like
Speaker 3: a really good point that campaign managers do usually watch
Speaker 3: trends all over the world, and so campaign contacts differ
Speaker 3: between countries, of course, and you cannot always fully copy
Speaker 3: campaigns because you cannot transplant them into different campaign contacts
Speaker 3: because would be incompatible. But they surely shop and we
Speaker 3: have seen this in all campaigns all around the world
Speaker 3: from successful examples around the world, and they really study
Speaker 3: them and they even go there for exchanges. So also
Speaker 3: Marine le Pen's campaign visited his Trump's campaigners and they
Speaker 3: have been sitting together in the Trump Tower. There are
Speaker 3: pictures of that kind of stuff. So in particular between
Speaker 3: like parties of the same ideology, we see them like
Speaker 3: exchanging campaign knowledge.
Speaker 2: And I even think with Dana, I don't know that
Speaker 2: I'm obsessed with the social media campaign, but even the
Speaker 2: font that they chose is very I suppose trendy right now,
Speaker 2: right and the color and the boldness of the colors,
Speaker 2: and even the campaign imagery. You know, half of them
Speaker 2: that I saw it looked like they had been taken
Speaker 2: on a two thousands digital camera. That is very trendy
Speaker 2: right now, even down to the very you know, the
Speaker 2: placement of things is very so I think that it's
Speaker 2: it's more than I've no just it, more than I
Speaker 2: ever have before, I think with the men Danny one,
Speaker 2: and that's why I was so interested in taking aback
Speaker 2: with it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, even the corporate design that was it was all
Speaker 3: perfect until the last bit, and you could really see
Speaker 3: like this was a young group of campaigners handling that
Speaker 3: knowing what they're doing in the social media age, because
Speaker 3: it always becomes cringe when you put the old campaign
Speaker 3: manage on that rather have the intern was twanty something
Speaker 3: and a college kid run the social media campaign these days.
Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred percent because all the money in the
Speaker 2: world and this is something else that I've been wanting
Speaker 2: to talk about as well, the Bezoses' They've just announced
Speaker 2: that they are funding the met Gala, and I think
Speaker 2: it's just such a all the all the money in
Speaker 2: the world cannot buy you class or call, which I
Speaker 2: think is something that that's completely another topic for another day,
Speaker 2: So stay tuned. Thank you so much for joining us, Mona, Yeah,
Speaker 2: thank you. That's it for this episode of The Front Page.
Speaker 2: You can read more about today's stories and extensive news
Speaker 2: coverage at enzidherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page
Speaker 2: is produced by Jane Yee and Richard Martin, who is
Speaker 2: also our editor.
Speaker 3: I'm Chelsea Daniels.
Speaker 2: Subscribe to The Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you
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Speaker 2: behind the headlines.