1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,080 Speaker 1: So the real question out of the fifteen percent is what, 2 00:00:02,160 --> 00:00:04,440 Speaker 1: if anything, can we do about it? Were we stiffed 3 00:00:04,440 --> 00:00:06,600 Speaker 1: given Australia's got ten percent and they must have a 4 00:00:06,640 --> 00:00:09,080 Speaker 1: material effect on us being able to do business. Tim Gross, 5 00:00:09,080 --> 00:00:11,280 Speaker 1: a former trade ministers back, were this Tim morning. 6 00:00:11,080 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 2: To you, good morning mate, would you. 7 00:00:13,560 --> 00:00:18,040 Speaker 1: Have taken it personally if you were still in trade No. 8 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:21,439 Speaker 2: I think the criticism of my successor, Todd mcclay's is 9 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:24,720 Speaker 2: ill informed. That is unfair. I don't believe there would 10 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 2: have been any material difference if it camped outside the 11 00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 2: White House for about a month prior to it. It's 12 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:31,880 Speaker 2: quite clear what has happened to here, and that is 13 00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 2: countries with the surface New Zealand has what Australia actually 14 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:37,519 Speaker 2: do not. Countries with a surface got quited with at 15 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:41,479 Speaker 2: least fifteen percent, and countries with a deficit didn't. So 16 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:43,840 Speaker 2: I don't believe anything could have done would have changed 17 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 2: that underlying reality. Now, look, mich that is a future 18 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 2: ahead of us, as you're just summarized. And I think 19 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 2: it's entirely correct that the government sending up senior officials 20 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:55,040 Speaker 2: and no doubt the minister will arrive in due course. 21 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 2: But we have to be very, very careful because the 22 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 2: lesson of those countries it did negotiate with the so 23 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 2: called negotiat it wasn't a negotiation, it was agreeing to 24 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:08,200 Speaker 2: things at the point of a gun actually often ends 25 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:10,919 Speaker 2: up worse off as a result. This is a very 26 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:13,959 Speaker 2: unusual situation. I don't think we've seen anything like it. 27 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:16,840 Speaker 1: No does it stay though from an American point of view, 28 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 1: In other words, once Trump leaves the office, even of 29 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 1: the Republicans, when will they change that, will ever go 30 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:23,640 Speaker 1: back to being what we thought it would be or 31 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:24,920 Speaker 1: should be? Or are we stuck? 32 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 2: He in a the number one question That is exactly 33 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 2: the number one question. My own view is that the 34 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:35,039 Speaker 2: negative effects of this haven't even begun to kick in 35 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:37,959 Speaker 2: on the American people. I mean, you can't shove in 36 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 2: massive tariff increases on issues that are on commodities that 37 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 2: are crucial to American industry into American consumption without negative effects. 38 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 2: But none of this has been felt yet. These terrifts 39 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 2: don't even take any till August the seventh, So you know, 40 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 2: this is the law of unintended effects is going to 41 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:00,320 Speaker 2: kick in big time, and that may well open up 42 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 2: a completeletely different future. We simply have to play it 43 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:04,760 Speaker 2: by a year. 44 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 1: What chance we can twist an arm in America and 45 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,799 Speaker 1: change anything or bugger all? 46 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 2: Actually, Mike, But the space for that may open up 47 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 2: in the future when the negative fix start to kick in, 48 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:23,079 Speaker 2: for example, if prices start to increase, do you really 49 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:26,240 Speaker 2: want to shove in a fifteen percent tariff on New 50 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 2: Zealand beef for example? So you know that's that's where 51 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 2: the discussion should be, just creating the essentially in a 52 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 2: holding pattern, waiting for an opportunity to arise. But the 53 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 2: idea of us going in there and negotiating with the 54 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 2: United States this is a fantasy because of the imbalance 55 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 2: of path. 56 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:44,919 Speaker 1: Well say, appreciate it as almost im grossive form of 57 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 1: trade Minister. Whethers for more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, 58 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 1: listen live to news Talks it'd be from six am weekdays, 59 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:53,919 Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.