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Speaker 1: From JMI Wealth Andrew Keller had good Monday morning.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, very good morning to you, Mike.

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Speaker 1: Now we've got international reads on services and manufacturing and

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Speaker 1: they seem to be going one way as a post

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Speaker 1: in New Zealand, which is going the other.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, at a little bit mixed with shifting the focus

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Speaker 2: offshore this morning. We've had some pretty poor, shall we

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Speaker 2: use the word poor data recently. Yeah, a week or

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Speaker 2: so ago we had our PMI and PSIZE, which is

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Speaker 2: our services and manufacturing sector barometers. Yeah, they were awful.

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Speaker 2: Another set of statistics that the sort of reminiscent of

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Speaker 2: the economy post the GFC. That's the sort of space

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Speaker 2: we're in. So the PMI was forty three, the PMI

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Speaker 2: was forty seven point two, so both very weak, and

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Speaker 2: within them the forward looking indicators like new ors et cetera,

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Speaker 2: where especially were or are especially concerning. So late last

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Speaker 2: week we got an update on these indicators from around

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Speaker 2: the world. And the issue here, Mike is that we looked,

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Speaker 2: we looked at that stage very out of sync. So

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Speaker 2: we've got an update on this relative performance. So the

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Speaker 2: US SMP global PMI fifty one point seven, it's expanding.

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Speaker 2: It actually improved from fifty one point three. The services

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Speaker 2: PMI fifty five point one. Our one was what were

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Speaker 2: we forty three? That was up from fifty four point eight.

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Speaker 2: So the US services sector print was the fastest pace

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Speaker 2: of US activity for the service sector in more than

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Speaker 2: two years. They do this composite and nex roll, the

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Speaker 2: two of them together, that ticked up to a twenty

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Speaker 2: six month high. Now, while this is potentially not what

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Speaker 2: the Fed wants to see, you know that sort of

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Speaker 2: economic strength. Embedded in the report was evidence of price

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Speaker 2: pressures easing and cooling. So composite measure of prices eased

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Speaker 2: to the second lowest level since twenty twenty in growth

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Speaker 2: and inputs costs also called so this sort of soft

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Speaker 2: landing scenario unlikely as it seems, could still occur. Not

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Speaker 2: so good in Europe's slump and manufacturing sector. Their services

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Speaker 2: sector held it well, but manufacturing forty five point six.

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Speaker 2: They were expecting that to come into forty seven point nine.

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Speaker 2: The service sector has said an expansion. France looking particularly weak.

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Speaker 2: You've now got to overlay political uncertainty there as well.

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Speaker 2: Japan also a little bit weaker, services sector dipping into

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Speaker 2: a contraction for the first time in about two years,

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Speaker 2: albeit just forty nine point eight, and the UK. The

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Speaker 2: UK make both of those indicators P mips I both

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Speaker 2: above fifty. So there's evidence of softening numbers around the world,

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Speaker 2: but the US stands out as being much more resilient

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Speaker 2: than other economies, and our numbers still look grim by comparison.

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Speaker 1: Yes they do. And part of that story is, of

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Speaker 1: course retail and Catman do cam in g They've had

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Speaker 1: a roller coaster over the last few years, haven't they.

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Speaker 2: Well, yeah, but it's a roller coaster that's just not

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Speaker 2: there's no uphill bits, it's all downhill bits. So the

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Speaker 2: another earning guidance out on Friday from the retail sector

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Speaker 2: to Catman do remember what I mentioned the other day,

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Speaker 2: Mike that when you get one of these, you're often

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Speaker 2: looking for the next one. Well, this is the situation here.

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Speaker 2: So a situation update from cat Man do not unexpectedly

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Speaker 2: sales are softer than they had been expecting. So you're

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Speaker 2: looking at the first four months of the second half

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Speaker 2: of their financial year. Their financial year goes to thirty

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Speaker 2: one July. Look, there was a sort of a positive

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Speaker 2: spin on this because in the announcement because they've got

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Speaker 2: the three brands Ripkel, Catman doing O Bos, Obos being

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Speaker 2: the outdoor sort of hiking footwear that Rip Curl and

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Speaker 2: Catman do. Their sales have been an improvement on the

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Speaker 2: first half sales trend which was very weak, So the

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Speaker 2: second half not quite as bad as the first half,

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Speaker 2: but the sales are slower than had been expected, so

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Speaker 2: you've got a slower start to the key winter promotional period.

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Speaker 2: The first three weeks of the winter sale of their

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Speaker 2: winter sale are eleven and a half percent below last year.

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Speaker 2: That's quite a big chunk. New Zealand is notably weaker

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Speaker 2: than Australia. Look Catman do maybe losing the competitive hrase

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Speaker 2: to people like mack Pack, but the retail environment son

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Speaker 2: is very tough and not going to turn around the

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Speaker 2: short term. Rip Curl continues to be a bit more

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Speaker 2: resilient than the Capmen doing Obos brands, So second half

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Speaker 2: so far five point nine percent fall in sales, but

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Speaker 2: Obos down over twenty one percent. They're now expecting fully

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Speaker 2: runings to be approximately fifty mil that's below recent analyst forecasts.

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Speaker 2: They've had to go to their banks and renegotiate their

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Speaker 2: banking covenants share prices at forty cents. It's down about

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Speaker 2: forty seven percent so far this year.

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Speaker 1: Give us the other numbers.

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Speaker 2: Well, the Dale Jones on Friday went up, went up

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Speaker 2: fifteen points, was not much thirty nine, one hundred and fifty.

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Speaker 2: The S and P five hundred was down small five

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Speaker 2: four sixty four, and then AS that was also down

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Speaker 2: small point one eight percent. Seventeen thousand, six hundred and

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Speaker 2: eighty nine. The footy one hundred eight two three seven

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Speaker 2: down point four to two percent. Nick A barely moved

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Speaker 2: three eight five nine six, the Shanghai composite down about

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Speaker 2: a quarter percent, two nine nine eight, the A six

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Speaker 2: as X two hundred seven seven nine five. It was

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Speaker 2: up twenty seven points on Friday, but we lost eighty

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Speaker 2: nine points. On the internets, fifty three quarters of percent

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Speaker 2: were now lower than we were at the state. Out

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Speaker 2: of the eleven thousand, six hundred and eighty two one

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Speaker 2: Kiwi dollar point six one one six against the US

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Speaker 2: put nine two oh seven, Ozzi zero point five seven

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Speaker 2: one nine, Euro point four eight three four pounds ninety

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Speaker 2: seven point six six, Japanese end goal is at two thousand,

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Speaker 2: three hundred and twenty one dollars and break crowd close

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Speaker 2: the week out above eighty five bucks, eighty five dollars

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Speaker 2: and twenty four cents.

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Speaker 1: Oh well, make catchup tomorrow. Appreciateor Andrew kelliherjmiwealth dot co

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Speaker 1: dot m z. For more from The Mic Asking Breakfast,

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