1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: So we're after the races here as epic fury arrives 2 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:03,880 Speaker 1: on the markets and up ends a few key we 3 00:00:03,880 --> 00:00:06,400 Speaker 1: saber accounts. Our market fell over three percent yesterday. We're 4 00:00:06,440 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: down four and a half of the month. That Dow 5 00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:09,440 Speaker 1: Jones is three and a half down over the past 6 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:12,719 Speaker 1: five days. Mark Lister is investment director for Craig's Investment 7 00:00:12,720 --> 00:00:14,880 Speaker 1: Partners and is back with US. Mark, very good morning 8 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:15,239 Speaker 1: to you. 9 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:16,920 Speaker 2: Good morning, Mike. 10 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:20,639 Speaker 1: Will today be a little more settled given yesterday seemed 11 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:22,639 Speaker 1: to be an apparition in a series of bad days 12 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:24,239 Speaker 1: because we're in the middle of a war or. 13 00:00:24,200 --> 00:00:27,720 Speaker 2: Not, I think on the local sheer market, it will 14 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:30,560 Speaker 2: be a little more settled. Remember that we needed to 15 00:00:30,560 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 2: play a bit of catch up because of what we 16 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:34,879 Speaker 2: saw on Friday night in the United States when we 17 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:39,120 Speaker 2: were closed. So New Zealand and Australia and Japan woke 18 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 2: up on Monday morning and played a bit of catch 19 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:46,400 Speaker 2: up overnight. It's actually been a little more subdued. Oil 20 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 2: prices obviously got up to one hundred and twenty odd 21 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:52,320 Speaker 2: now they're back in the nineties, so that's pleasing the 22 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 2: US markets down but only slightly similar story in the 23 00:00:55,880 --> 00:01:00,440 Speaker 2: UK and Europe. So it might still be a difficult day, 24 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:02,360 Speaker 2: but I suspect we will hold up better than we 25 00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 2: did yesterday. 26 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 1: Is it all driven by oil? Literally? Oil price of 27 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:09,120 Speaker 1: oil to stock market moves with them. 28 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:12,639 Speaker 2: I believe it is, yes, But the price of oil 29 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 2: is pretty important for the economy globally. Oil is a 30 00:01:17,200 --> 00:01:20,400 Speaker 2: component in just about everything we buy. So people are 31 00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:23,119 Speaker 2: looking at those oil prices. They don't know when they'll 32 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:26,400 Speaker 2: come back down, they don't know when the disruption will 33 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 2: be relieved, and they're starting to think about inflation and 34 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 2: what the impact is there. What does that mean for 35 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 2: interest rates and therefore what does it mean for growth 36 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:36,759 Speaker 2: and asset prices. 37 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 1: Which was my second part of my question. So oil specific, 38 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:40,520 Speaker 1: you can see the price of oil. What you can't 39 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:42,759 Speaker 1: see is the price of uncertainty of people freaking out 40 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:43,199 Speaker 1: too much. 41 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 2: No, I don't think they are. Look it is something 42 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 2: we haven't seen in a while, and the disruption looks 43 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:54,720 Speaker 2: like it could hang around for longer than we would like. 44 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 2: So remember, sheer markets have had a pretty good run, 45 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:01,840 Speaker 2: whether it's Japan or emerging markets or Europe, they are 46 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:05,440 Speaker 2: all up pretty strongly. If you go back a week 47 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:08,440 Speaker 2: or two ago, so they probably have had a little 48 00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 2: bit further to fall having had such a good run, 49 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 2: and markets are very sensitive about what we'll see on 50 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:17,639 Speaker 2: the inflation front and how central banks will respond. 51 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 1: What's your time frame trigger in terms of the length 52 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 1: of the war before the RB needs to do something, 53 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 1: say something, and we all start to take this a 54 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 1: little more seriously than perhaps we are at the moment. 55 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:32,560 Speaker 2: Well, I'm watching next week's announcements really closely. You've got 56 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:35,200 Speaker 2: three big central banks next week. You've got the Reserve 57 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:39,280 Speaker 2: Bank of Australia, the US Federal Reserve, and the European 58 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:42,240 Speaker 2: Central Bank. So watch all of them very closely and 59 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 2: see how they're reacting, what they're thinking about. Our Reserve 60 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 2: Bank has a luxury of not meeting until the eighth 61 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:51,600 Speaker 2: of April, which is about a month away. If this 62 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 2: is still ongoing when they meet in April, then that 63 00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 2: won't be looking good. So hopefully we do see things 64 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:02,680 Speaker 2: settle down between and then I still think they're firmly 65 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 2: on hold. But the longer it goes on, the more 66 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:10,080 Speaker 2: upward pressure there is on inflation and the more potential 67 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 2: downward pressure there is on growth, So it puts them 68 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:15,720 Speaker 2: in a really awkward position, and it obviously isn't what 69 00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:18,200 Speaker 2: the government wants to see with an election looming either. 70 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 1: That is true. Appreciate your expertise as always, Mike Listener, 71 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 1: investment director for Craig's Investment Partners. 72 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:26,080 Speaker 2: For more from The Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to 73 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 2: news talks i'd Be from six am weekdays, or follow 74 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio.