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Speaker 1: Himmas's leader Ismael Hanair has been assassinated inside Tehran in

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Speaker 1: Iran it's the capital. No one has claimed responsibility yet,

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Speaker 1: but analysts on the Iranian state television have placed the

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Speaker 1: blame squarely with Israel for the attack. Israel doesn't normally

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Speaker 1: talk about any of its offensives overseas, so in what

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Speaker 1: direction could this take the conflict from here? The Otago

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Speaker 1: University Senior lecturer for Middle Eastern and Comparative Politics as

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Speaker 1: doctor Leon Goldsmith. First of all, what do you think

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Speaker 1: this is going to do? Because this leader Ismael Hnair

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Speaker 1: was obviously on the diplomatic offensive to try and get

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Speaker 1: a cease fire. Does this mean a ceasefire is further

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Speaker 1: out of reach?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I think this probably takes the S five deal

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Speaker 2: off the table for now, definitely, for moves that possibility

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Speaker 2: are But I think what it was is that Israel

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Speaker 2: is probably sending a very strong message that none are safe.

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Speaker 2: I think we've had the isbela number two in Hamas,

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Speaker 2: number one killed inside one day in the capital Ofbanon

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Speaker 2: and iranis it's fairly significant and it could cause a

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Speaker 2: major reverberations.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, because it's not in the case of Lebanon. It

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Speaker 1: they're not just heading you know, the southern border. They've

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Speaker 1: actually they've actually struck them in be I mean they're

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Speaker 1: heading to the capitals here, aren't.

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Speaker 2: They, which is precisely what the US asked them not

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Speaker 2: to do.

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Speaker 1: So do you in some ways do we take heart

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Speaker 1: from the fact that they are quite limited in scope?

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Speaker 2: Well, I think what these are very strategic, targeted assassinations

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Speaker 2: of people that the Israelis believe are responsible for October

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Speaker 2: seven and another attacks against Israel. So this is their

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Speaker 2: policy for some time of disproportionate retaliation against individuals. So

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Speaker 2: Asma Honey is the most senior person to be targeted

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Speaker 2: and assassinate, assassinated since October seven, and until that was

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Speaker 2: until yesterday. Previously it would have been for a shaka

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Speaker 2: who was killed in Beirut, So I think it's I

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Speaker 2: think it may have just also been timing here because

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Speaker 2: normally Ismahanir would have been in Doha, which would have

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Speaker 2: been somewhere with Israel would never touch him. The fact

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Speaker 2: that he happened to be in Tehran for the inauguration

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Speaker 2: of the Revenue President gave Israelis an opportunity to hit him.

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Speaker 1: Right your assessment basically sees far off the table for

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Speaker 1: now as a result of this, what about risk of

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Speaker 1: a wider conflict?

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Speaker 2: What is that?

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Speaker 1: What does it take before we take over into that territory.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think there's going to be some very serious

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Speaker 2: conversations happening in Tehran right now and in Beyrout. So

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Speaker 2: I think on one hand, there's a lot of analysts

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Speaker 2: also suggesting that there is there's no way that Israel

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Speaker 2: can not retaliate in some way, either via his Baalah

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Speaker 2: through southern Elevenine also trying to ramp up attacks via

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Speaker 2: Alhofi drones, rockets from Yemen. Also, as we've already seen

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Speaker 2: previously in April, direct missile launchers from Iran to Israel,

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Speaker 2: which we'll have you know, a high degree of risk

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Speaker 2: of regional escalation. We also have US forces approaching the

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Speaker 2: Lebanese coast warships again, so the pieces are looking quite

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Speaker 2: concerning here. What we may have seen is what we

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Speaker 2: probably saw the first phase of in April, is that

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Speaker 2: the Israelis are trying to perhaps draw the US into

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Speaker 2: a direct confrontation with Iran, which I think is something

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Speaker 2: reconcerning and something that the Iranians are probably quite key

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Speaker 2: not to be drawn into that trap.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but it's certainly on the table, isn't it. Thank

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Speaker 1: you very much for analysis, doctor Leon Goldsmith, Otago University,

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Speaker 1: Senior Lecturer for Middle Eastern and Comparative Politics, with us

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Speaker 1: there saying that that cease fire pretty much off the

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Speaker 1: table after this assassination. And don't forget that we have

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Speaker 1: skin in the game here too. We've got to defense

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Speaker 1: force members deployed to protect that maritime mute a route,

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Speaker 1: i should say, from the in the Red Sea, from

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Speaker 1: the Hootie Rebels.

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