1 00:00:06,480 --> 00:00:09,520 Speaker 1: He our own Chelsea Daniels and This is the Front Page, 2 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:16,279 Speaker 1: a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. It's 3 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:21,080 Speaker 1: been three years since Russia invaded Eastern Ukraine, a dramatic 4 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 1: escalation in the conflict between the two countries that has 5 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:28,480 Speaker 1: been raging for over a decade, and for three years 6 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: Ukraine has fought hard to defend itself. Over twelve thousand 7 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:36,320 Speaker 1: civilians are believed to have died a similar number captured 8 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:40,080 Speaker 1: or detained, while estimates on the military deaths range from 9 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 1: tens to hundreds of thousands. During this war, most of 10 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:47,479 Speaker 1: the Western world has sided with Ukraine and supported the 11 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:51,520 Speaker 1: country financially and with tanks and missiles, but that could 12 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 1: soon change, with US President Donald Trump arranging peace talks 13 00:00:55,680 --> 00:01:01,000 Speaker 1: with Russia without Ukraine's involvement. New Zealand freelance journalist Tom 14 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:03,520 Speaker 1: March has been in Ukraine for much of the last 15 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,640 Speaker 1: three years, and he returns to the Front Page today 16 00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:09,880 Speaker 1: from Kiev to discuss the state of the invasion as 17 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 1: a potential end to the conflict approaches, Tom, can you 18 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 1: give us a lay of the land. How much has 19 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:23,600 Speaker 1: actually changed in terms of control of land in recent months? 20 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 2: The answer is not a huge amount. There have been 21 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 2: a bit of control. It's worth going back to that 22 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:36,400 Speaker 2: August last year because that's when Ukraine actually took its 23 00:01:36,440 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 2: first major chunk of territory in a long time. When 24 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:43,640 Speaker 2: it captured it was around a thousand square kilometers in 25 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 2: Russia's Cursed Oblast in a sort of a surprise lightning offensive. 26 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 2: Since then, the Russians have managed to take back maybe 27 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 2: just over half of that, and they have also managed 28 00:01:55,560 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 2: to take a little bit of territory in Ukraine's Don 29 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 2: bas Rea. So they captured a few major towns Karakhove, Velikanovasilka, Selindov. 30 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 2: Those names might not mean much to your listeners, but 31 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 2: they're basically medium sized towns of ten to twenty thousand 32 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:15,960 Speaker 2: people at least before the war, and some of them 33 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 2: are being quite important Ukrainian defense of strongholds. But they 34 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:23,920 Speaker 2: haven't yet captured pert Krovsk, which is a rather large 35 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:26,919 Speaker 2: sized Ukrainian city in the south of the Dnetzk region 36 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 2: that has been their main target for a while. And 37 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 2: if you zoom out, it's really they've only captured about 38 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 2: half of one percent of Ukrainian territory in that time. Period. 39 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:42,080 Speaker 2: So while it's not a good trajectory, it's very very 40 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:43,799 Speaker 2: far from them looking like they're going to capture the 41 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:45,160 Speaker 2: whole country anytime soon. 42 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:52,800 Speaker 3: I think I have the power to end this war, 43 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 3: and I think it's going very well. But today I heard, oh, 44 00:02:56,360 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 3: we weren't invaded. Well, you've been there for three years. 45 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:00,880 Speaker 3: You should have ended it three years. You should have 46 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:02,960 Speaker 3: never started, and you could have made a deal. 47 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:07,680 Speaker 2: Leading to an unprecedented response from President Zelensky, who accused 48 00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:12,880 Speaker 2: Donald Trump of living in a bubble. It is unfortunate 49 00:03:12,919 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 2: the President Trump, and with great respect for him as 50 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:18,400 Speaker 2: the leader of the American people who constantly support us, 51 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 2: unfortunately lives in this disinformation space. 52 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 3: Right. 53 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 1: I guess the big change in recent weeks and in 54 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 1: months that there's been some big diplomatic shifts. Donald Trump 55 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 1: held phone calls with Vladimir Puden and Zelensky and has 56 00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 1: decided to initiate peace talks with Russia, but not with Ukraine. 57 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 1: Trump's now calling Zelensky a dictator, saying he's done a 58 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 1: terrible job and could have made a deal earlier. How 59 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 1: do Ukrainians feel about this? 60 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 2: Well, the irony is that this has actually made Zolensky 61 00:03:55,360 --> 00:04:00,160 Speaker 2: quite a lot more popular to just dismiss the dictator allegations. 62 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 2: Nobody in Ukraine who's really calling Zelensky a dictator. There 63 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 2: are certainly people who disagree with him politically. There are 64 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:12,840 Speaker 2: also military leaders who've criticized his strategic policies on the battlefield, 65 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 2: and there are some definitely, particularly in the area of 66 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 2: military strategy, where Zelenski can be quite roundly criticized for 67 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:22,719 Speaker 2: his decisions over the last several years. But there's no 68 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 2: massive clamor in Ukraine for elections, and rather, actually this 69 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 2: is giving Zelensky quite a big boost of support in Ukraine. 70 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:33,440 Speaker 2: I think one poll showed his poll numbers had gone 71 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 2: up by about ten percent literally overnight since Trump made 72 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 2: that comment, Because it's not like Ukrainians are opposed to 73 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 2: having new elections. They're opposed to having new elections on 74 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 2: the timetable of the US and Russia, who now look 75 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:53,239 Speaker 2: like they're gaining up against Ukraine. And in some ways 76 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:56,800 Speaker 2: it's also made Ukrainians sort of feel like even more 77 00:04:56,920 --> 00:05:00,480 Speaker 2: like they're resisting a great enemy. They're not just resisting Russia, 78 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 2: They're resisting both the pressure of Russia and the US. 79 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:05,239 Speaker 2: At the same time. 80 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 1: Well, Ukraine's also been under martial law since Russia invaded 81 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 1: in February twenty twenty two, and you don't have elections 82 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:14,040 Speaker 1: under marshal law, right. 83 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:17,599 Speaker 2: Well, yes, that's according to the Ukrainian constitution. And the 84 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 2: thing is, though there are different historical precedents. You can 85 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 2: argue the US had elections during the Civil War, Britain 86 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:28,680 Speaker 2: and most European countries didn't have elections during the Second 87 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:32,160 Speaker 2: World War. However, to hold an election a few years 88 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 2: late after a period of martial war when the country 89 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:37,800 Speaker 2: is an a real you know, getting hit by rockets 90 00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:41,279 Speaker 2: every day, Like imagine trying to imagine if Australia was 91 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:44,000 Speaker 2: bombing New Zealand every day and you were trying to 92 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:47,200 Speaker 2: set up polling stations in schools, how popular do you 93 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 2: think that would be? What would people be saying? It 94 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:53,880 Speaker 2: would be considered a total joke. And so I think 95 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:57,160 Speaker 2: what people in Ukraine are really angry at is that 96 00:05:57,200 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 2: the US and Russia trying to use that as a 97 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 2: widge to ouse the president for who, whatever his flaws, 98 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:08,880 Speaker 2: has been democratically elected. And I will say Ukraine does 99 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 2: have many problems with issues about the rule of law 100 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 2: and issues with corruption. However, Ukraine has had six peaceful 101 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 2: democratic transfers of power since independence. Russia has had the 102 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:25,280 Speaker 2: same leader for twenty five years. 103 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:30,159 Speaker 3: This is something that should have never happened, would have 104 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:33,039 Speaker 3: never happened. And I used to discuss it with Putin. 105 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 3: President Putin and I would talk about Ukraine and it 106 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 3: was the apple of Isaya, I will tell you that. 107 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 3: But he never there was never a chance of him 108 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:41,919 Speaker 3: going in. And I told him you better not go in, 109 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:45,120 Speaker 3: don't go in, don't go in. And he understood that, 110 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:48,720 Speaker 3: he understood it fully. But I'm only interested. I want 111 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:52,039 Speaker 3: to see if I can save maybe millions of lives. 112 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:53,920 Speaker 3: This could even end up in a World War three. 113 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:55,479 Speaker 3: I'm mean to be honest with you. You've been hearing 114 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:57,120 Speaker 3: now Europe to say, well, I think we're going to 115 00:06:57,120 --> 00:06:58,520 Speaker 3: go in, and we're going to go all of a sudden, 116 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:02,240 Speaker 3: you could end up in World War three. 117 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 1: Well, there are reports that the US now wants half 118 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 1: of Ukraine's critical mineral deposits to quote payback the US 119 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:16,600 Speaker 1: billions spent fighting Russia. What are these critical minerals? And 120 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:18,680 Speaker 1: is this idea even realistic? 121 00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:24,320 Speaker 2: So I am I'm certainly not a geologist, so I 122 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 2: hope any geologists listening don't tear me to pieces. But 123 00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:32,040 Speaker 2: as I understand, Ukraine has quite large reserves of I 124 00:07:32,080 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 2: believe lithium, cobalt, I believe a silica that are very 125 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 2: deep beneath its sort of steps, particularly in the east. 126 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 2: It also has a bit of gold, and it has 127 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 2: quite a lot of coal as well. But Ukraine has 128 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 2: never really been in a position to be able to 129 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 2: extract all of these, and so originally Zelenski and Trump 130 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 2: seemed to be talking about a partnership whereby the US 131 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 2: would provide support and help Ukraine to extract these minerals. 132 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 2: The US would get the effectively right to verse refusal 133 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:09,800 Speaker 2: to buy them, and then would use them effectively to 134 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 2: both pay back the money that Ukraine had taken for 135 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 2: them for its military defense and also to help with 136 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 2: the reconstruction of Ukraine. So on the face of it, 137 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:22,400 Speaker 2: it didn't seem like that terrible an idea when people 138 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:25,800 Speaker 2: were first talking about it, particularly when Zelensky met Trump 139 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 2: I believe it was November of last year. However, it 140 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:34,440 Speaker 2: turned out that Zelensky had basically been given a fake 141 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:38,320 Speaker 2: a company be like give US all the stuff and 142 00:08:38,520 --> 00:08:41,240 Speaker 2: basically not really being given anything in return, not being 143 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 2: given US security guarantees. I remember I was in the 144 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:48,000 Speaker 2: room with Zelensky when he was asked this question, and 145 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 2: he just said, it just wasn't in our sovereign national interest. 146 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:53,520 Speaker 2: It wasn't you know, what we want to what we need. 147 00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:56,200 Speaker 2: It doesn't help secure the future of our country. And honestly, 148 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 2: I think that's why Trump is so mad, because he's 149 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 2: kind of used to having in the US sort of 150 00:09:02,880 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 2: putting all his opponents under his thumb, and now there's 151 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 2: one person who's coming out with him, you know, from 152 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 2: a small, poor, corrupt country all the way across the 153 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:14,400 Speaker 2: rest of the world, is one of the only people 154 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:17,400 Speaker 2: who's actually willing to stand up and say, no, that's 155 00:09:17,440 --> 00:09:19,679 Speaker 2: not in me or my country's national interests, and I'm 156 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 2: not going to accept that. I think that's just driving 157 00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:24,880 Speaker 2: Donald Trump crazy. 158 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:38,679 Speaker 1: French President Emmanuel mccran hosted European leaders for an emergency 159 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:42,040 Speaker 1: summit after they too felt cut out of those peace talks. 160 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 2: How are leaders across. 161 00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 1: Europe reacting to the dramatic change in the US's approach 162 00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 1: to Ukraine. 163 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 2: They're not reacting particularly well. They've been shocked, right, And 164 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 2: you know, there was one incident where the chairman of 165 00:09:56,880 --> 00:10:01,199 Speaker 2: the Munich Security Conference was caught on cam in tears 166 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:06,480 Speaker 2: following Vice President J. D Vance's speech. Now, some people 167 00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 2: are saying that that was a clip slightly out of context, but. 168 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:12,000 Speaker 4: What it really did was sort of it's sort of 169 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 4: regardless of how strictly it sticks to the timeline of 170 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:18,080 Speaker 4: who said what, when, it sort of captured the overall 171 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:20,000 Speaker 4: mood that the Europeans. 172 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:23,199 Speaker 2: Were shocked and appalled. And you know, the security blanket 173 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 2: that they'd taken from for granted from the US basically 174 00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:30,560 Speaker 2: since the late nineteen forties had suddenly been ripped from 175 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:33,920 Speaker 2: under them. And at least I felt that this was 176 00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:37,319 Speaker 2: rather silly of them, because they've had a lot of warnings. 177 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 2: I remember I was at a conference in Prague about 178 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:43,960 Speaker 2: three months ago and the President of the Czech Republic 179 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:46,440 Speaker 2: gave the keynote speech in which he said something along 180 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 2: the lines of, look, Donald Trump was the wrong messenger, 181 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:53,840 Speaker 2: but he did have a message we should have listened to, 182 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:57,560 Speaker 2: which is that Europe cannot rely on the United States 183 00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 2: for its security indefinitely. And they had a warning. This 184 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:04,440 Speaker 2: is what Peter Pava, the chef President, said there was 185 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 2: a warning between twenty seventeen to twenty twenty one that America, 186 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:12,000 Speaker 2: even if it wasn't Donald Trump, would probably end up 187 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 2: electing a leader who was not going to see European 188 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:17,520 Speaker 2: security as worth investing it. And we've got to do 189 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:20,360 Speaker 2: it ourselves. And then another warning came, surely the biggest 190 00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:23,319 Speaker 2: one of all should have said, the Clatson's absolutely firing 191 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:27,280 Speaker 2: red lights everywhere. That was when Russia escalated its invasion 192 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:30,600 Speaker 2: of Ukraine in February twenty twenty two. And yet still 193 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 2: they didn't take it seriously. Still, they didn't start massively 194 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 2: ramping up production facilities. Still they decided to have the endless, 195 00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:41,720 Speaker 2: interminable debates over how to drip feed weapons to Ukraine 196 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 2: in what announts and at what time periods, and where 197 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:46,800 Speaker 2: they were allowed to use them on what square kilometer 198 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:50,959 Speaker 2: of the battlefield. That rubbish. And now they're sort of 199 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 2: looking very scared and helpless because they don't really know 200 00:11:57,520 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 2: what to do because none of those countries have invested 201 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:02,960 Speaker 2: in their arms. And honestly, there's only really one country 202 00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:07,439 Speaker 2: in Europe left with a powerful, modern armed forces, and 203 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:08,600 Speaker 2: that is Ukraine. 204 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:12,720 Speaker 1: Well, uk PM Kiir Stamer's suggested he's prepared to put 205 00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:13,840 Speaker 1: troops on the ground. 206 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:14,880 Speaker 2: Is that really likely? 207 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 1: Wouldn't that kickstart a wider kind of NATO conflict, one 208 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 1: potentially without the US's backing. 209 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:23,679 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, So this is the worry, right, So what 210 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 2: we're trying to talk about now is that one thing 211 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 2: is and look, it seems like the peace talks have 212 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 2: kind of maybe even broken down before they started, after 213 00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:33,200 Speaker 2: what Trump's been saying over the last few days. However, 214 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:35,679 Speaker 2: one of the ideas that was coming through is Ukraine 215 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:39,280 Speaker 2: was basically saying, Okay, look, we're willing to potentially sign 216 00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:43,719 Speaker 2: up to a ceasefire to ORG recapturing the occupied territories. 217 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 2: But what's most important to us is that we get 218 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 2: a guarantee that this is not going to happen again, 219 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 2: because the problem is, in nineteen ninety four they signed 220 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 2: the Budapest Memorandum where they gave up nuclear weapons. Now, 221 00:12:56,880 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 2: just to be clear, there's a big debate over whether 222 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:02,880 Speaker 2: Ukraine could have actually had a functioning nuclear deterrent in 223 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:06,080 Speaker 2: the nineteen nineties, but regardless, the piece of paper that 224 00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 2: was signed was to respect Ukraine's international borders. Then in 225 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:14,960 Speaker 2: twenty fourteen they effectively conceded the loss of Crimea without 226 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 2: a fight, you know, and were forced to fight that 227 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:21,960 Speaker 2: sort of Russian insurgency in the in the eastern Donbass region. 228 00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:26,080 Speaker 2: And then remember that Crimea, so they conceded without a 229 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:29,400 Speaker 2: fight in twenty fourteen, was then used as effectively one 230 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 2: big military base to invade the rest of southern Ukraine. 231 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:35,080 Speaker 2: So they are just worried that the Russians will take 232 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:37,800 Speaker 2: any cease fire as a chance to re arm, regroup 233 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 2: and come back and do this again in five or 234 00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:43,160 Speaker 2: teen or twenty five years now. The ideal guarantee of 235 00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:46,880 Speaker 2: Ukraine's security, their leaders believe, would be NATO membership, But 236 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 2: even before Trump was elected, most people in diplomatic circles 237 00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:53,080 Speaker 2: were saying, we're not willing to sign up to that. 238 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:56,160 Speaker 2: So what people are looking for instead is alternative potential 239 00:13:56,200 --> 00:14:00,720 Speaker 2: security guarantees. One of those would be to have a 240 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 2: European peacekeeping force along the line of contact with Russia, 241 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:10,000 Speaker 2: so we're talking along that it's about nine hundred mile 242 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:12,640 Speaker 2: long front line. The idea would be that that would 243 00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:15,840 Speaker 2: be demilitarized, that everybody would move their heavy weapons back 244 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 2: that they'd be like a demilitarized zone of say, you know, 245 00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 2: a little bit like there is between North and South Korea, 246 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 2: or like there was between North and South Vietnam. 247 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 5: If Ukraine is ultimately left out of some of the 248 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:33,600 Speaker 5: major negotiations and does not agree to any potential deal, 249 00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:34,840 Speaker 5: what could. 250 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:37,080 Speaker 2: It mean for the future of that country. 251 00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:40,240 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean they always have the final scene, right, 252 00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 5: I mean, that's definitely the privilege that they have, and 253 00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 5: they should have and they should be involved in this 254 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 5: and at every stage. But I think that one of 255 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 5: the leverage points here would be what kind of support 256 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 5: are they getting to the United States? That seems to 257 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:53,840 Speaker 5: be the leverage the same thing of what is being 258 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:55,040 Speaker 5: done to Russia. 259 00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:58,000 Speaker 2: Were they given to get out of this? 260 00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:00,400 Speaker 5: You know, they have huge inflation, they have a lot 261 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 5: of sanctions against them, so there's probably some carrots there. 262 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 5: And then again, Ukraine would be depending on the United 263 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 5: States greatly, And this is where a lot of the 264 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 5: talks right now about Europe and NATO being able to 265 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 5: support them directly. That's where I think we're coming to 266 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 5: you at this point. 267 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:20,480 Speaker 1: Now, you've met with Zelensky recently, Hey, what did you 268 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 1: guys discuss so. 269 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:25,560 Speaker 2: I got very lucky. I was cool to a small, 270 00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 2: quite intimate meeting of journalists and here it was a 271 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 2: couple of journalists and we were in Munich in the 272 00:15:34,520 --> 00:15:38,120 Speaker 2: Bairishahoff Hotel, and I actually got a chance to say 273 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 2: to him, Look, a lot of people in New Zealand 274 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 2: and this is honestly true, and we both know it, 275 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 2: have sort of switched off from this. They think it's 276 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:50,160 Speaker 2: very sad, but that it's sort of a far away 277 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 2: conflict with which we can't do anything about, and that 278 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 2: honestly doesn't really concern us. And it's not just how 279 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:58,840 Speaker 2: people in New Zealand feel, it's how people in Australia feel, 280 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:03,040 Speaker 2: or maybe in Canada to feel. However, and I put 281 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:05,960 Speaker 2: that question to him and I said, look, we're a 282 00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:09,800 Speaker 2: small country, very far away the Lenscape. You just broke 283 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 2: and he said, he said, yeah, you should be very 284 00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:15,000 Speaker 2: very happy you are so far away from Russia. In 285 00:16:15,040 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 2: the room sort of just burst out laughing. I'm from 286 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 2: New Zealand. We're a very small country, we're very far 287 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:21,280 Speaker 2: away and a lot. 288 00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 5: Of people you're very happy that you're. 289 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:31,760 Speaker 2: But then he turned on on a more serious note. Look, 290 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:35,920 Speaker 2: this war is not really confined to Ukraine anymore. First, 291 00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 2: the first other nation to join the war has been 292 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:42,040 Speaker 2: North Korea, and North Korea getting a lot of missiles, 293 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 2: They've been getting a lot of drones, and in modern warfare, 294 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 2: these drones have ranges of thousands and thousands of kilometers 295 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:51,360 Speaker 2: and this can be used to affect the security of 296 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 2: the Asia Pacific region, which is very relevant to New 297 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:59,000 Speaker 2: Zealand and Australia's security interests. He then goes on to 298 00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 2: say that there was a you know, there's a possibility 299 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:05,160 Speaker 2: of a wider regional conflagration with he just sad other 300 00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:08,639 Speaker 2: conflicts in the region, and I understand that he was 301 00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:11,600 Speaker 2: referring to China and Taiwan, but he did. I don't 302 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:15,880 Speaker 2: think he wanted to say China out loud because Ukraine 303 00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:20,200 Speaker 2: does see China as a potential partner that could put 304 00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:23,960 Speaker 2: pressure on Russia to de escalate its war aims. 305 00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:27,440 Speaker 1: And like you said, we are far away. What can 306 00:17:27,840 --> 00:17:30,280 Speaker 1: the New Zealand government do at this point. Should we 307 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 1: be involving ourselves in the diplomatic side of things or 308 00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:35,680 Speaker 1: is aid the best tool at the moment. 309 00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:41,040 Speaker 2: So I was actually contacted a while ago by a 310 00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:45,359 Speaker 2: representative of Ukrainian government with precisely this in mind, and 311 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:48,000 Speaker 2: he said something which was basically, look, you know, New 312 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:51,159 Speaker 2: Zealand has a reputation for being a peaceful country, that 313 00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:57,280 Speaker 2: New Zealand's contribution to peace talks would actually be encouraged. 314 00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 2: She wanted me to encourage New Zealand politicians to attend 315 00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 2: the Swiss peace conference that was held without huge amounts 316 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:08,680 Speaker 2: of success a couple of months ago. So there is that, 317 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 2: and then it's always worth noting the most important contribution 318 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 2: that New Zealand has made to Ukraine's security, which is 319 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:20,000 Speaker 2: the New Zealand troops that have been training Ukrainian forces 320 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:23,200 Speaker 2: in the UK. They've gotten very good reviews and they've 321 00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:27,480 Speaker 2: done a very important job. So I think continuing or 322 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 2: even escalating to that support to that training mission is 323 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:34,840 Speaker 2: a very important way to do it. It's also low 324 00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:39,320 Speaker 2: cost not putting New Zealand soldiers in Kalm's way, and 325 00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:42,359 Speaker 2: from my experience talking to the soldiers there, they were 326 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:44,320 Speaker 2: saying it was one of the most rewarding things they'd 327 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 2: ever done in their life. So I think that New 328 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 2: Zealand training mission is always really important to keep in mind. 329 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:52,160 Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us, Tom, No worry, It's always a pleasure. 330 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:59,040 Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You 331 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:02,880 Speaker 1: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage 332 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:06,960 Speaker 1: at enzdherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page is 333 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:08,400 Speaker 1: produced by Ethan. 334 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:10,320 Speaker 2: Sills and Richard Martin, who. 335 00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:15,199 Speaker 1: Is also a sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to 336 00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:18,760 Speaker 1: The Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, 337 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:23,200 Speaker 1: and tune in on Monday for another look behind the headlines.