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Speaker 1: With US.

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Speaker 2: Now we have Shane Solely of Harbor Asset Management evening Shane, Hello,

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Speaker 2: so what do you reckon with the inflation? We got

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Speaker 2: that OCR cut Lockton for next month.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I look at the data out today. It certainly

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Speaker 1: puts a bit of pressure back on reserve bank rate

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Speaker 1: cut in August. I think when we look at the

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Speaker 1: central bankers around the world, they're all watching to see

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Speaker 1: what tariff it's due to inflation, so they're all a

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Speaker 1: bit weary about cutting an advance there. But you know,

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Speaker 1: this inflation data we're seeing here and usy on is

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Speaker 1: certainly putting an official rate cut back on the table

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Speaker 1: for August, so I think we shall be thinking about that.

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Speaker 1: In fact, the market today moved to now procing in

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Speaker 1: an eighty five percent chance of a cut in August.

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Speaker 1: That was up from seventy percent four year today's data change,

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Speaker 1: and markets liked it. We saw two years what breaks

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Speaker 1: many people. That's used by a lot of banks to

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Speaker 1: sit interest rates. They fell by zero point six percent,

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Speaker 1: not a lot, I know, but it's down to three

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Speaker 1: fifteen and the New yealer Shire market was up almost

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Speaker 1: zero point six percent today and that was led up

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Speaker 1: by some of our heavyweights BUK health Care, uk An

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Speaker 1: Airport A two. So yeah, generally up more positive tone

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Speaker 1: and capital markets.

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Speaker 2: Okay, what do you think about that update from Contact Energy?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so Contact Energy got a good solid operating update

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Speaker 1: for the June month and importantly they're talking about better hydrology.

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Speaker 1: So more more the rain that we've all been having

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Speaker 1: to deal with is found any of the dams and

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Speaker 1: sexually helped Contact. They've looked like they've come out with

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Speaker 1: a better twelve months result than the market was expecting.

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Speaker 1: The result reflects a bit of geffmal generation last year,

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Speaker 1: obviously at low hydro, but really importantly for New Zealand

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Speaker 1: the system wide controlled hydro stories or the dams, they're

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Speaker 1: full and that should just keep a cap on the

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Speaker 1: risks around power aullages and certainly you know spike e

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Speaker 1: electricity prices. So that's good, it's good for New Zealand.

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Speaker 2: Hey, run me through what you've seen with the New

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Speaker 2: Zealand company management teams buying and selling shares in the companies.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, in the last few days we've seen a

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Speaker 1: couple of interesting announcements. The management of the retire and

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Speaker 1: an HQ company Ryman obviously been under pressure in the

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Speaker 1: last year or so, they've stepped up. I been buying

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Speaker 1: a lot of shares. You know, there's a bit of

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Speaker 1: a positive signal in terms of the company emerging from

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Speaker 1: what's been a pretty challenging period of time. On the

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Speaker 1: other side, we saw online travel company Circo CEO. He's

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Speaker 1: saw a little bit of stock first time in a

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Speaker 1: long time, so he hasn't tended to sell stock. Tax

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Speaker 1: obligations either, unfortunately, but he's got to pay the tax.

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Speaker 1: He's got long tem as interested and he's got to

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Speaker 1: pay the tax bill. On either side. Not unusual, we

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Speaker 1: do see it often, but you know, just a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a you know, he's taking some money to

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Speaker 1: pay that hard tax bill.

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Speaker 2: All right. So the US company earning season has started

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Speaker 2: for the second quarter. How's it going.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, look, last week with a little bit inconclusive, which

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Speaker 1: sounds weird, but you know, we had the big banks

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Speaker 1: come out and they were okay. Things like Netflix, it

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Speaker 1: was okay, but the results, the share prices after is

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Speaker 1: were not particularly strong, and that just you know, might

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Speaker 1: have been a surprise to many. We've had a strong

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Speaker 1: market going into this, and what we need is these

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Speaker 1: earnings numbers to and they haven't quite done that yet.

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Speaker 1: So when we think about how tough the world has

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Speaker 1: been in the last twelve months, the one thing that stands

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Speaker 1: out as profit margins have been pretty good over there.

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Speaker 1: This week, we're getting a bunch of technology stocks coming out,

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Speaker 1: so certainly they'll need to be good numbers to keep

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Speaker 1: that market going, and we've certainly seen just a little

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Speaker 1: bit of heat come out of that US market.

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Speaker 2: Shot two, good stuff, Shane, Thanks so much, Shane, Solly

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Speaker 2: Harbor Asset Management.

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Speaker 1: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to

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Speaker 1: news talks.

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Speaker 2: They'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast

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