1 00:00:00,920 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: The economy is rebounded into one point one percent growth 2 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: in the September quarter, ahead of forecasts. Economists have been 3 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:09,639 Speaker 1: picking a rise of between point eight and one percent. 4 00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: Business services, manufacturing, and construction led the recovery. Finally, some 5 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: signs of life in the economy. Independent economist Cameron Bagrie 6 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:20,160 Speaker 1: joins me. Now, good morning, Cameron, thanks for your time. 7 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 2: Not good morning from comors. 8 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 1: Okay, is it too early to celebrate? 9 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 2: Oh, this economy's got forward propulsion. If you ever look 10 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:33,919 Speaker 2: at the second quarter number, what I've got revised down 11 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 2: to minus one percent, we're center plus one point one 12 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:40,519 Speaker 2: in September quarter. Do I think those two quarters, that 13 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:43,159 Speaker 2: down and the up were a fair reflection of the economy. 14 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:45,120 Speaker 2: The answer is no. I think there's a little bit 15 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 2: of underlying noise across the flat overall was probably about right. 16 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:51,920 Speaker 2: But if you look at most of the indicators, lo, 17 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:56,920 Speaker 2: your GDP obviously ours were concrete pored you look at 18 00:00:56,960 --> 00:01:00,639 Speaker 2: bank lending into the business sector in the month of Octiger. Yeah, 19 00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 2: there's a there's a pretty deep array of green shoots 20 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 2: there that are starting to shelves a pretty consistent story. 21 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:08,399 Speaker 2: We've got forward propulsion. Are we knocking the ball out 22 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:11,040 Speaker 2: of the park as a one point one quarterly rise 23 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 2: would imply the answer is no, But we be back 24 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 2: on the positive side of the leisure, which is the 25 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:16,199 Speaker 2: one thing. 26 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 1: We want do we Why have the previous quarters and 27 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 1: compared to this quarter, why have they been kind of 28 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 1: up and down? What's been contributing to that? 29 00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 2: Well, you can have a look at some yet one 30 00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 2: off such as your messinex shutting down production. I think 31 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:32,480 Speaker 2: Statistics zone has got a little bit of noise going 32 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 2: on with their what's called seasonal factors, your pre cod 33 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 2: verse post COVID. You've seen different changes and behavior which 34 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:43,360 Speaker 2: is knocked around some of the balancing items as well. Yeah, 35 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:45,200 Speaker 2: so sometimes when you see that sort of noise within 36 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 2: economic data, you just need to step back sometimes and 37 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 2: take a little bit of deep breath. And I think 38 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:52,280 Speaker 2: there's a bit of an overreaction towards the negative number. 39 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 2: It's going to little be a little bit of overreaction 40 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 2: in regard to hype towards the positive number. But your 41 00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 2: net on net, the economy is definitely moving forward. 42 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 1: Do you think that's going to held down now? Do 43 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 1: you think we can expect more steady GDP results going forward. 44 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 2: I wouldn't say we've got to expect steady GDP results 45 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:10,680 Speaker 2: that are going forward. It's still like a two steps forward, 46 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 2: one step back economy. We've got massive cycical col wins. 47 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 2: If you look at the farming sector. The farming sector 48 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 2: has done pretty well in regard to the combination of commodity prices, 49 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 2: low U seal on dollar, but the heat's starting to 50 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 2: come out of those dairy prices, so we're keeping a 51 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 2: close eye on that. For twenty twenty six, you got 52 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:30,799 Speaker 2: the Fontpira injection of about two point one billion into 53 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 2: the economy. You've got the rolling impact of lower interest rates, 54 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 2: You've got investment boost. Yes, there's an awful lot of 55 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 2: cyclical support. What we've also got is some pretty massive 56 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 2: structural headwinds, and one of the big ones it's just 57 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:48,600 Speaker 2: your energy prices, the d industrialization of New Zealand as 58 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 2: we respond to high gas prices. We've got still continued 59 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:54,799 Speaker 2: weak productivity growth. Here's still a little bit of nervous 60 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:57,240 Speaker 2: us out there towards the property market. Your people are 61 00:02:57,240 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 2: cleaning up balance. It's yes, cypical support, there's still a 62 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:02,240 Speaker 2: whole lot of structural factors that we need to get 63 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 2: on top of. Before you called it, what there is 64 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:06,839 Speaker 2: a stay in growth, period of consistency. 65 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:10,119 Speaker 1: Now it feels like we've sort of peaked a look 66 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 1: around the corner as opposed to heating sort of into 67 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:15,560 Speaker 1: a booming recovery, doesn't it. 68 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, this recovery, I don't think it's going to 69 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 2: be like your normal what's called cycrocal recovery, which is 70 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 2: normally of the VPA. Right, you go down pretty hard 71 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 2: and then you come back up pretty aggressive the other side, 72 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:31,519 Speaker 2: as monetary policy works at magic on the intrasensitive parts 73 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 2: of the economy, Construction, residential, property, retailing trivially respond and 74 00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:39,800 Speaker 2: a pretty aggressive fection factor. Yeah, because we've got those 75 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:44,120 Speaker 2: structural headwinds, and the property market is still about double 76 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 2: evaluation it was in two thousands. So property prices have 77 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:50,640 Speaker 2: come down, but property prices are not cheap what they 78 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 2: were twenty to thirty years ago. Yes, you've got these 79 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:58,120 Speaker 2: structural constraints on the magnitude of this economic upsweating that 80 00:03:58,160 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 2: people are penciling in. Are we going to see it 81 00:03:59,920 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 2: up swing? Yes? Is it going to be a four 82 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 2: to five percent growth up swing which you've seen historically 83 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 2: when you hit the wall, which we did hit the wall. Yeah, 84 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:09,680 Speaker 2: the answer is no. Now, I think expectations a sort 85 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:11,280 Speaker 2: of two to three percent growth in the next door 86 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:13,120 Speaker 2: to twelve months are are pretty reasonable. 87 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 1: Cameron, as always, really appreciate your thoughts. Have a lovely Christmas. 88 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:21,359 Speaker 1: For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, listen live 89 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:24,479 Speaker 1: to News Talks it'd be from five am weekdays, or 90 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:26,440 Speaker 1: follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.