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Speaker 1: The tit for tat between Israel and Hezbila is really

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Speaker 1: ramping up overnight. There have been Israel has sent one

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Speaker 1: hundred jets to hit Lebanon in the preemptive strikes. That's

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Speaker 1: what they're calling them, preemptive strikes. Have a listen now,

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Speaker 1: both sides say they don't want war. This doesn't really

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Speaker 1: sound like it. They don't want war, do they, But

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Speaker 1: they are calling them preempt for strikes, and they are

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Speaker 1: trying to avoid at least on the face of it,

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Speaker 1: civilian casualties, including Hezbola have been going for drone launch pads,

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Speaker 1: specifically inside IDF bases apparently. So what does this mean.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to doctor Leon Goldsmith, the Ottagia University Middle

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Speaker 1: East expert. Doctor Leon. Good morning, Good morning, Roan, thanks

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Speaker 1: for being with me. What are you reading into this?

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Speaker 1: Is this the beginning of something or is this just

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Speaker 1: a bit of aling.

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Speaker 2: I think this is probably what reasonably predictable based on

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Speaker 2: what happened after the assassinations of Fort Shako that Habella

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Speaker 2: and Hassan Asula, the leader of Habela, has basically promised

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Speaker 2: that there would be some kind of retaliation, but they

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Speaker 2: were waiting for the Gaza ceasefire hostage talks to see

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Speaker 2: if they could be successful, because if they could have

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Speaker 2: got those through under severe US pressure, that would be

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Speaker 2: a win for the whole resistance access but of course

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Speaker 2: on the other side, they were under severe pressure to

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Speaker 2: do something. So it's been forty forty days since those assassinations,

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Speaker 2: and that's what they called this operation are Beane, which

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Speaker 2: an Arabic means forty days. But it is still a

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Speaker 2: limited for tad As you mentioned, it's not the big

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Speaker 2: majors of escalation that we're concerned about.

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Speaker 1: Do you think then that the ongoing talks in Doha

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Speaker 1: and elsewhere are actually working as a contagia for a

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Speaker 1: bigger attack.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think what they were hoping was that because

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Speaker 2: the US is putting extreme pressure on all sides to

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Speaker 2: reach some kind of a ceasefire agreement now because of

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Speaker 2: the collector regional stability, that this is an opportunity for

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Speaker 2: Hamas to basically survive within Gaza, which of course the

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Speaker 2: Israelis don't want to see this, but this has been

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Speaker 2: what the reason why we haven't seen a retaliation until now.

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Speaker 1: Yes, what happens as we lead up to the US

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Speaker 1: election because you've got a president, a potential president in Harris,

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Speaker 1: who is walking a tight rope between some very young

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Speaker 1: voters who are very pro gazen in Palestine and a

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Speaker 1: more war hung no, I don't want to say war Hungary,

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Speaker 1: but a more strident Biden.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I think there's definitely a factor. I'm not so

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Speaker 2: much expert on the politics, but I think what we

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Speaker 2: would see is that whatever Israel wants to achieve, and

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Speaker 2: I think they want to Nani has said overnight that

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Speaker 2: he wants to change the strategic situation on the northern border,

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Speaker 2: and that basically means reducing his bulla's capacity to pose

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Speaker 2: a threat to Israel. So I think he probably wants

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Speaker 2: to do that while Biden's still there. I think he's

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Speaker 2: been trying to provoke his brother and the Iranians into

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Speaker 2: a direct confrontation. I think that's what's been happening here.

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Speaker 2: So once again, the bull it's kind of it's kind

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Speaker 2: of like a it's not really back in Israel's court

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Speaker 2: because both sides feel as if that they've re established

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Speaker 2: some kind of de terrence through this overnight pits a tack.

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Speaker 2: Nathaniah's feeling a little bit more relaxed because his pole

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Speaker 2: numbers are up, so he's not feeling so insecure and

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Speaker 2: has on ISRAELA is feeling like he has at least

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Speaker 2: struck blow at Israel, which has restored his sort of

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Speaker 2: deterrence and his regional status.

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much for the analysis, Doctor Lion Goldsmith.

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Speaker 1: Always great to have you on the show. Otaga University,

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Speaker 1: Middle East Expert. For more from News Talks B listen

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Speaker 1: live on air or online, and keep our shows with

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