1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,280 Speaker 1: So every four years of the world doesn't stop certainly 2 00:00:02,279 --> 00:00:03,920 Speaker 1: at polls, is long enough to pay attention to the 3 00:00:03,920 --> 00:00:06,440 Speaker 1: most consequential election of them all, the presidency of the 4 00:00:06,519 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 1: United States of America. Much has been made with the polls, 5 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:11,080 Speaker 1: of the quality of the candidates, of the closeness of 6 00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:13,280 Speaker 1: the race. As always, it will come down to the 7 00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:16,480 Speaker 1: swing states now. Mark Gilbert, former US Ambassador to New Zealand, 8 00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:18,239 Speaker 1: is back with us. Mark, very good morning to you. 9 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:20,480 Speaker 2: Good morning. 10 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 1: Are you bullish or full of apprehension? 11 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:28,440 Speaker 2: I feel pretty good about where we are based on 12 00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 2: what our ground game we've had Terrisia, Crown Gain, very sophisticated. 13 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:41,879 Speaker 2: We're in all seven of the battleground states, and I 14 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 2: believe there's a good chance that we will win most, 15 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:45,280 Speaker 2: if not all of them. 16 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:48,320 Speaker 1: Well, does that make it as close as the polls say? 17 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:52,839 Speaker 1: Do you believe the polls? 18 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 2: Because of our electoral college, the polls can be very macheving, 19 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 2: But poles have been within the margin of era in 20 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:07,039 Speaker 2: the seven battle round stands for a month now, and 21 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 2: we've seen late breakers moving our direction. Us With the 22 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:14,440 Speaker 2: ground game we have, we feel really good about getting 23 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:18,959 Speaker 2: out the vote, getting out those leader undecided and we 24 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 2: feel really good about this. And when you talk about 25 00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 2: the election, it's a margin of era race. So we 26 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:32,119 Speaker 2: may only win some states by five or ten thousand votes. 27 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:35,960 Speaker 2: But the way our election works is if you get 28 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 2: all the electoral dudes. 29 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:39,200 Speaker 1: That's coreat so. 30 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 2: It can actually be an electoral college. Lander. 31 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 1: Do you the early vote count overall is down on 32 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 1: twenty twenty? Does that part worry you or not? He's gone. 33 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 1: He's on a train. That's the American telephone system for you. 34 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:03,639 Speaker 1: By the way, as far as the models are concerned, 35 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 1: jail Partners, we've seen a fairly dramatic, it might not 36 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 1: be too strong a word, but a definite move to 37 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:14,680 Speaker 1: Harris as they run their various scenarios. So jail Partners 38 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 1: Trump wins in sixty percent of simulations. Just a couple 39 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:20,240 Speaker 1: of days ago, that was sixty two. Let's go back. 40 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 1: I think we've got Mark back on the phone. Mark 41 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:24,720 Speaker 1: apologies about the connection to the phone. Do you worry 42 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 1: about the early vote being out and not being of 43 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 1: the size of twenty twenty? He's clearly not there. Let's 44 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:38,519 Speaker 1: give that one a miss. So the scenario is that 45 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 1: jal Partners are running sixty percent so the lowest number 46 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 1: for a month. He's dropped eight points. Trump has dropped 47 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 1: eight points in the past week. So from overall, it's 48 00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 1: gone lean Trump to toss up Trump. The swing state probabilities, 49 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 1: they've all changed. Notable impacts in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Arizona. 50 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:01,240 Speaker 1: Trump's win probabilities increase by six and a half points. 51 00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:04,919 Speaker 1: He's gone from likely to strong, and Michigan Harris's win 52 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 1: probabilities increased twelve point eight points, So it's now a 53 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:15,120 Speaker 1: Leen Harris Wisconsin sixteen point movement against Trump. So toss 54 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:18,119 Speaker 1: up Trump to lean Harris. So we're in the We're 55 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:20,120 Speaker 1: into the weird and wonderful because you got any number 56 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:22,840 Speaker 1: of people from Nate Silba to Henry Olsen who was 57 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:25,320 Speaker 1: on the program yesterday saying they believe Trump can win 58 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:27,840 Speaker 1: some people to suggesting Rasmus and are suggesting Trump not 59 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:29,920 Speaker 1: only wins, but he wins by quite a long way, 60 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 1: and yet jail partners and all their modeling goes completely 61 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 1: the other way. For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, 62 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 1: listen live to news talks it'd be from six am weekdays, 63 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.