1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,360 Speaker 1: So fast moving developments as epic fury in as it's 2 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:04,840 Speaker 1: fourth week, the forty eight our ultimatum will expire early 3 00:00:04,880 --> 00:00:07,880 Speaker 1: afternoon tomorrow our time the strike opens, or Iran's power 4 00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:11,159 Speaker 1: plants will be obliterated. Apparently. Jeffrey Price, Senior Fellow at 5 00:00:11,160 --> 00:00:14,720 Speaker 1: the Foreign Policy Institute John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, 6 00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 1: is beck, Well, it's Jeffrey morning. 7 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:19,599 Speaker 2: Good morning, and good morning to everybody in New Zealand. 8 00:00:19,800 --> 00:00:22,079 Speaker 1: So this forty eight hours is that brought about from 9 00:00:22,120 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 1: Prissia or is it part of the plane. 10 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 2: So it's I don't want to predict exactly what President 11 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 2: Trump's strategy is, but he has used this strategy before 12 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 2: of using a deadline and as a pressure tactic in negotiations. 13 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:43,120 Speaker 2: So we will see in pastic experiences sometimes the deadlines 14 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:47,360 Speaker 2: are extended. But clearly he has focused most recently on 15 00:00:47,400 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 2: opening the straits of horror moves. But if you look 16 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 2: at his truth social people have noted that just the 17 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 2: day before he had a different post which was about 18 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 2: conditions that might lead to the winding up of the 19 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:07,320 Speaker 2: military operation. Those included a lot of military objectives protecting 20 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 2: our allies, and not a lot about say, regime change 21 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:16,120 Speaker 2: or or changing the sort of the conduct of the 22 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:21,120 Speaker 2: Iranian regime within its borders. So it might just be 23 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 2: a negotiating strategym we'll see. There's just hours left on 24 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:28,560 Speaker 2: that clock, but it might it might well get extended. 25 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 1: What's your thinking on the strike? It seems inexplicable to 26 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 1: me they didn't think of this or is this just 27 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:36,560 Speaker 1: turned into a bigger mission than they thought it could 28 00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:37,399 Speaker 1: ever turn into? 29 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 2: That is the question you always think of the straits 30 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 2: of horror movies. I mean, I think one analysis is 31 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:51,400 Speaker 2: that in previous hostilities with Iran, the objectives have been 32 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 2: more limited and Iran's response has been more limited. When 33 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 2: we took out General Sillimani there was a very limited response. 34 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:01,960 Speaker 2: Even Operation mid Night Hammer last year, where we took 35 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 2: out some of their nuclear facilities, there was a very 36 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 2: measured response. But as you say in the Pentagon, the 37 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:11,520 Speaker 2: enemy gets a vote, and this operation seemed to be 38 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 2: maximums aimed at regime change and got a furious response 39 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 2: from Iran. And they've shown they're able to respond symmetrically 40 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:25,080 Speaker 2: when they want to. When Israel hits a gas field, 41 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 2: they hit a gas field and gutter when Israel strikes 42 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 2: a nuclear facility. They just recently hit a nuclear facility 43 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:35,520 Speaker 2: in Israel, but also asymmetrically taking advantage of their own 44 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:39,639 Speaker 2: unique situation, and the Straits of our MOUs is definitely 45 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:42,840 Speaker 2: a major pressure point. So I think that, you know, 46 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 2: the conclusion of this conflict will have to take account 47 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:49,720 Speaker 2: of the of the incredibly important part that straight place 48 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:51,320 Speaker 2: in global energy markets. 49 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 1: I'm assuming these marines that are coming on the Tripoli 50 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 1: will grab cog and they'll squeeze them. That wise that 51 00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:57,520 Speaker 1: you're thinking or no. 52 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:01,560 Speaker 2: We will see that it would be a new step 53 00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 2: because once you put troops on the ground, you are 54 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 2: facing a whole new level of risk. There's a number 55 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:09,959 Speaker 2: of things that people have speculated that marines might be 56 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 2: used for. There's carg Island, which is very important for 57 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:20,160 Speaker 2: Iran's energy exports. There's the potential of further securing the 58 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 2: Straits of Horror moves, and there's also you know the 59 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:27,960 Speaker 2: issue of the Iranian nuclear sort of the nuclear material 60 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:30,120 Speaker 2: that they have stalked about some four hundred and forty 61 00:03:30,639 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 2: kilos of that. I mean, it seems to me that 62 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 2: the best outcome on that is it's much easier to 63 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 2: secure that nuclear material if we reach some sort of agreement. 64 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:43,839 Speaker 2: I'm hoping it comes to that. I'm hoping it does 65 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 2: not come to troops on the ground. 66 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:47,760 Speaker 1: You and me, boys, Jeffery, appreciate it. We'll stay in touch. 67 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 1: Jeffrey Pross, who's out of John Hopkins worts this morning. 68 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:53,640 Speaker 1: For more from the Mic Housking Breakfast, listen live to 69 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 1: news talks. It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow 70 00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 1: the podcast on iHeartRadio.