1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,560 Speaker 1: Interesting new numbers. Meantime, around our population there are five 2 00:00:03,560 --> 00:00:05,800 Speaker 1: point three four million of us in the year two July. 3 00:00:05,880 --> 00:00:07,880 Speaker 1: That's a bump of a bit over ninety three twenty 4 00:00:07,920 --> 00:00:12,120 Speaker 1: thousand newborn seventy three thousand migrants. Massa University sociologist Paul 5 00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: Spoonley back, Well, there's Paul. Very good morning to you. 6 00:00:15,400 --> 00:00:15,920 Speaker 2: Good morning. 7 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 1: Make I noticed the infant mortality rate is bumped. Is 8 00:00:19,320 --> 00:00:22,480 Speaker 1: that some sort of administrative era, as anything weird happened 9 00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:22,880 Speaker 1: there or not? 10 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 2: No, I don't think so. You'll notice that what they 11 00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 2: do is they produce figures and you've just quoted them, 12 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 2: and then they correct them later. So I think it's 13 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:38,199 Speaker 2: probably just a rechecking of the statistics. 14 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:41,960 Speaker 1: Okay, fewer births. Is that part of a Western world? 15 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 1: We're not having as many children as we used to think. 16 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:49,239 Speaker 2: Yes, it is, and so our births are dropping by 17 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 2: about five hundred to one thousand two year. So there's 18 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 2: each year on year we've dropped by between that five 19 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 2: hundred and thousand, we're down at one point five to 20 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 2: three per woman. We've got a long way to go 21 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 2: to catch up with Italy or Portugal or Germany, where 22 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 2: it's down about one point two burst per woman. But 23 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:13,319 Speaker 2: we're getting there, and we've seen some of the biggest 24 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:17,240 Speaker 2: drops in fertility in recent years that we see ever 25 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:18,200 Speaker 2: seen in this country. 26 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:21,840 Speaker 1: What is the big picture scenario for that? Do we 27 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:24,960 Speaker 1: want to grow our population or not? If we do, 28 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 1: given what you've just told us, do we then have 29 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 1: to do it basically through immigration. 30 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:33,880 Speaker 2: Yes. To answer the second part of your question, Mike, 31 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:37,560 Speaker 2: the only thing that will grow our population in any 32 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:41,399 Speaker 2: number will be immigration. So the latest figures show a 33 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:46,560 Speaker 2: drop to about ninety three thousand. Remember if you'd talk 34 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 2: to me a few months ago, we would have been 35 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 2: talking about one hundred and thirty thousand additional people as 36 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 2: a result of net migration in New Zealand. So migration 37 00:01:56,800 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 2: is our population growth factor. The question for me, and 38 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:05,320 Speaker 2: I think for many people, is what is the appropriate 39 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 2: level of annual population growth, particularly when we talk about Auckland, 40 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 2: where we know that the population growth exceeds the ability 41 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:18,360 Speaker 2: of the city to provide for that population growth, so 42 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 2: all our infrastruction services simply do not catch up with 43 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 2: that population growth. 44 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 1: Is that? And it's fascinated me for years that this 45 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:30,239 Speaker 1: whole thing that you stay where you land and everyone 46 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:34,000 Speaker 1: lands or most people land in Auckland. Are we disproportionate 47 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:36,800 Speaker 1: as a country with such a large chunk of our 48 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:39,280 Speaker 1: population in one city or do a lot of countries 49 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:40,239 Speaker 1: have that issue as well? 50 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 2: No? No, the only other country that has a similar 51 00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 2: proportion of its population in one city is Ireland and Dublin. 52 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 2: And so when you think about it, we're heading towards 53 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 2: what we estimate to be the case in about a 54 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 2: decade or more, is that forty percent of all New 55 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 2: Zealanders will live in Auckland and three quarters of the 56 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 2: population will live in the top half of the North Ireland. 57 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:08,680 Speaker 2: So is that something that we want to see? And 58 00:03:08,720 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 2: in most countries that's not the case. So if you 59 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 2: take the UK where I am at the moment, London 60 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:18,240 Speaker 2: is the primate, the dominant city, but only a little 61 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 2: over twenty percent of the population live in that city. 62 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 2: So it's disproportionate compared with other countries. And I think 63 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 2: the assumption and your question about you know, between fifteen 64 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 2: and sixty percent of our migrants coming to New Zealand 65 00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:35,000 Speaker 2: end up in auclub Well, we could do things to 66 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 2: disperse that migrant population around the country, but we seem 67 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 2: unwilling to do so, and I don't know why. 68 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 1: Indeed, all right, Paul, appreciate your time and have a 69 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:46,360 Speaker 1: good break in that particular part of the world. Paul Spoonley, 70 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 1: the Messi University sociologist. I think we've tried partially. You know, 71 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 1: you get extra points. Whinston Peter's come up with the idea. 72 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 1: I think a number of years ago you get extra 73 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 1: points if you moved to a rural center. It just 74 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:57,920 Speaker 1: didn't work. People seem to like who stay where they 75 00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:00,160 Speaker 1: land for whatever reason. But a debate for another day. 76 00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:03,800 Speaker 2: For more from The Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to 77 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 2: News Talks at B from six am weekdays, or follow 78 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio.