WEBVTT - How dictators fall: Inside the vulnerabilities of tyrannical regimes and how people fight back

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<v Speaker 1>Hilda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page,

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<v Speaker 1>a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald Adolf Hitler,

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<v Speaker 1>Joseph Stalin, Benito Mussolini, Poulpott, Saddam Hussein. Apart from being

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<v Speaker 1>some of the most famous dictators in human history, they

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<v Speaker 1>all have one thing in common. They all had dramatic, violent,

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<v Speaker 1>and disgraced downfalls, but in almost every case foreign powers

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<v Speaker 1>played a major role in shaping the post dictatorship future.

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<v Speaker 1>How Tyrants Fall and How Nations Survive by political scientist

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<v Speaker 1>Marcel Dursis delves into the vulnerabilities of these kinds of

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<v Speaker 1>regimes and explores strategies for their dismantling. Dursas was recently

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<v Speaker 1>in New Zealand for the Auckland Writers' Festival and joined

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<v Speaker 1>The Front Page while here to discuss tyrants and whether

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<v Speaker 1>we've learned anything at all from the world's darkest rulers. Marcelle.

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<v Speaker 1>The book opens with this line, the most powerful tyrants

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<v Speaker 1>on earth are condemned to live their life in fear.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you elaborate on this for me? Yeah?

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<v Speaker 2>I think in our democracies there's this idea that these

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<v Speaker 2>leaders are all powerful, and that they can do whatever

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<v Speaker 2>they want whenever they want it, and that in some

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<v Speaker 2>ways it can be quite a fabulous existence, but reality

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<v Speaker 2>is far from that. So one of the big problems

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<v Speaker 2>that these leaders have is that when they lose power,

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<v Speaker 2>oftentimes they also lose their freedom or their life. So

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<v Speaker 2>when political scientists looked at the statistics for this, they

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<v Speaker 2>found that over two thirds of personalist dictators ended up imprisoned,

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<v Speaker 2>in forced exile, or dead after losing power.

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<v Speaker 1>What are the key components of a dictator?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean so I deliberately talked about tyrants in

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<v Speaker 2>the book because I wanted to look at a broad

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<v Speaker 2>selection of leaders. So I wanted to look at your

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<v Speaker 2>military dictatorships, one party dictatorships, king's theocrats. And the way

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<v Speaker 2>that I think about it is the amount of people

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<v Speaker 2>that you need in order to maintain power. So in

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<v Speaker 2>a functioning democracy like New Zealand, where you are free elections,

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<v Speaker 2>you need millions of people because you need to win

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<v Speaker 2>those elections. But if you're somebody like Vladimir Putin or

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<v Speaker 2>you're Kim Jong un, you just need a tiny share

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<v Speaker 2>of the population to hold that power. And usually these

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<v Speaker 2>are your advisors. These are generals or intelligence officials. So

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<v Speaker 2>what I'm interested in are those types of political systems

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<v Speaker 2>where you just need a tiny share of the population

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<v Speaker 2>because that changes everything.

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<v Speaker 1>And what are some of the personality traits of a tyrant?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you're probably got to have a pretty good

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<v Speaker 1>reckoning of yourself. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>These people are deeply, deeply weird, you know, and they

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<v Speaker 2>would do a terrible job if they had an ordinary

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<v Speaker 2>work to do, right, So if they set in an

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<v Speaker 2>office environment or in a cubicle, they'd be terrible added,

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<v Speaker 2>But they are in a way rational, and they're oftentimes

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<v Speaker 2>very good at what they do. So within the system

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<v Speaker 2>in which they operate, it's a good thing if you're

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<v Speaker 2>a narcissist. It's a good thing if you have no

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<v Speaker 2>empathy for others, because you need to horrific violence on

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<v Speaker 2>people all of the time. And perhaps you have a

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<v Speaker 2>normal conversation with them, smiling at them, and in the

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<v Speaker 2>evening you order their death. So these people are not

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<v Speaker 2>normal in any sense of the world, but they are

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<v Speaker 2>often quite suited for that particular role.

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<v Speaker 1>Are there any warning signs that a populist politician is

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<v Speaker 1>becoming an authoritarian leader? Yeah?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean the first thing is intent, so you know,

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<v Speaker 2>you're sort of boring, run of the middle. Politicians usually

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<v Speaker 2>don't want to be dictators. You know, I don't know

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<v Speaker 2>what it's like in New Zealand, but you know our

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<v Speaker 2>Chancellor is a boring centrist. I really don't think he

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<v Speaker 2>wants to be a dictator. So the first question is

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<v Speaker 2>do they want it? And then from there on out

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<v Speaker 2>it gets a little bit more difficult because there's really

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<v Speaker 2>not a one way in which people dismantle democracy. But

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<v Speaker 2>if I look at some of the struggling democracies right now,

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<v Speaker 2>you know there are things that are particularly alarming. So

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<v Speaker 2>one of them is the justice system, because if you

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<v Speaker 2>can ignore judges or you can replace them with your own,

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<v Speaker 2>democracy is going to struggle immediately. But even more importantly

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<v Speaker 2>is what happens to the security forces, because a court

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<v Speaker 2>judgment is no good if you can't implement it, and

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<v Speaker 2>whether a court judgment gets implemented or not ultimately depends

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<v Speaker 2>on the men and women with guns. So if you

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<v Speaker 2>can ignore them, or if you can find a way

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<v Speaker 2>to capture the military or the security services, then democracy

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<v Speaker 2>will almost inevitably die.

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<v Speaker 1>Your book is a bit of a positive in some

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<v Speaker 1>ways because it shows that a lot of tyrants are

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<v Speaker 1>susceptible to a downfall. What makes them so prone to

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<v Speaker 1>this kind of failure.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, So one of the things that dictators often struggle

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<v Speaker 2>with is something called a dictator's dilemma. So they don't

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<v Speaker 2>ever actually know who's genuinely loyal and who's just pretending

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<v Speaker 2>to be. Because if you advise that dictator and he says, listen,

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<v Speaker 2>I have a great idea, you're not going to say

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<v Speaker 2>it's a bad idea because you don't want to go

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<v Speaker 2>to a gulag or die, so you're going to lie.

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<v Speaker 2>And over time, what happens is that these leaders are

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<v Speaker 2>constantly being lied to every day for multiple years, and

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<v Speaker 2>gradually they just detach from reality and they no longer

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<v Speaker 2>understand what is happening in their own country, let alone

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<v Speaker 2>in a different one. And this is something that invites

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<v Speaker 2>catastrophic mistakes, and that's part of the reason why they're

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<v Speaker 2>so prone to falling right.

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<v Speaker 1>And they're just encapsulated by that bubble of yes people.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and also, you know, the thing to remember is that,

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, some of these people have grown up in it.

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<v Speaker 2>So Kim Jong Lunn, for example, started carrying a pistol.

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<v Speaker 2>When he was a child, you know, he would where

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<v Speaker 2>the sort of make believe uniform, and when he saw

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<v Speaker 2>an actual general, that real general, an adult would salute him.

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<v Speaker 1>You know.

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<v Speaker 2>He liked to play with these little toy ships, and

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<v Speaker 2>if he had a problem with one of his toy

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<v Speaker 2>ships at night, he would summon a nautical engineer, and

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<v Speaker 2>that nautical engineer would have no choice but to go

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<v Speaker 2>and help him. Right, So it is no surprise that

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<v Speaker 2>people like that are totally broken and aren't able to

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<v Speaker 2>make good decisions.

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<v Speaker 3>Do dictators love Trump? That's unclear. Dictators are transactional. They

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<v Speaker 3>use each other. If dictators are loving Trump at the

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<v Speaker 3>moment is because they think that he can be an ally,

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<v Speaker 3>that they can get something from him. If we take

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<v Speaker 3>as the example Vladimir Putin, he and Trump have a

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<v Speaker 3>good relationship, and yet he allows Trump to be marked

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<v Speaker 3>on Russian television as a useful fool.

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<v Speaker 1>How long do these leaders reign for usually, and how

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<v Speaker 1>do people go about toppling one of these regimes? Because

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<v Speaker 1>some of them are quite short, so a few years,

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<v Speaker 1>but some of them last for decades.

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<v Speaker 2>Some of these people are extremely good at making the

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<v Speaker 2>kind of trade offs that they need to make in

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<v Speaker 2>order to maintain power. But one of the huge weaknesses

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<v Speaker 2>that these systems have is succession. So again, if you

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<v Speaker 2>take a functioning democracy like New Zealand or Germany or

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<v Speaker 2>the UK, you get one leader gets voted out and

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<v Speaker 2>then you know, a couple of days later, the next

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<v Speaker 2>one walks right back in. And if there's some sort

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<v Speaker 2>of dispute, we have institutions to deal with it. We

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<v Speaker 2>have courts, we have an electoral commission, we have independent

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<v Speaker 2>journalism toward people accountable. But in these systems, what the

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<v Speaker 2>dictators tend to do is to either destroy all of

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<v Speaker 2>those institutions or try to capture them. So when the

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<v Speaker 2>dictator is no longer around for some reason, the whole

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<v Speaker 2>thing often goes up in flames, because all of a sudden,

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<v Speaker 2>then that dispute turns from the shooting in the streets.

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<v Speaker 2>So the length can vary quite a lot. And when

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<v Speaker 2>it comes to the best ways to toppling these leaders,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, just as dictators are forced to make trade

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<v Speaker 2>offs in order to maintain power, we have to make

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<v Speaker 2>tradeoffs in trying to deal with them. And a large

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<v Speaker 2>question is, you know, how much risk are we actually

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<v Speaker 2>willing to assume, because of course, you know, when democratic

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<v Speaker 2>leaders go on TV, they say, oh, this is all

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<v Speaker 2>about democracy promotion. You know, we just want to you know,

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<v Speaker 2>bring our values into the world. But obviously that's not

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<v Speaker 2>how it actually works in reality. You know, states have

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<v Speaker 2>all kinds of interests. Some of them might be related

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<v Speaker 2>to democracy, but many are not.

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<v Speaker 1>Are there any kind of common weaknesses or blind spots

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<v Speaker 1>between these regimes that other countries are able to take

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<v Speaker 1>advantage of in order to limit their impact on the

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<v Speaker 1>rest of the world.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think one of the things that is comparatively

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<v Speaker 2>easy and comparatively low risk is looking at the ways

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<v Speaker 2>in which these regimes try to use our own system

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<v Speaker 2>against us. So you know, in Europe, for example, there's

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<v Speaker 2>barely a football club inside that isn't owned by some

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<v Speaker 2>oligarch or you know, royal family in one way or another.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, China is buying up ports. You know, there

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<v Speaker 2>are all kinds of critical infrastructure investments that these regimes

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<v Speaker 2>are making, and we let it go on in essence

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<v Speaker 2>because we're greedy. You know, We've got hordes of accountants

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<v Speaker 2>and bankers and lawyers that are making money of this,

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<v Speaker 2>and this is something that we could change if we

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<v Speaker 2>wanted to, and it would make life a lot more

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<v Speaker 2>difficult for these types of leaders.

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<v Speaker 1>If there's huge power in something like nonviolent protest, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>in regimes where dissent is met with extreme violence, what

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<v Speaker 1>options do civilians realistically have.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, So interestingly, nonviolent protests can be incredibly effective even

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<v Speaker 2>in regimes in which violence is used regularly, And in

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<v Speaker 2>a way, that's a fascinating topic because you know, you

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<v Speaker 2>look at these pensioners, you look at these teenagers, and

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<v Speaker 2>these just unarmed people marching in the streets, and oftentimes

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<v Speaker 2>they can bring down even entrenched dictatorships, and you think, well,

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<v Speaker 2>how is that possible? And the way that it works

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<v Speaker 2>is that if there are too many people in the streets,

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<v Speaker 2>dictators have to respond because they cannot afford to look weak,

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<v Speaker 2>so they use violence. But when you club down women

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<v Speaker 2>and children or pensioners, oftentimes the next day you have

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<v Speaker 2>even more people in the streets, and then you're forced

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<v Speaker 2>into something that in German we call a choice between

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<v Speaker 2>the plague and cholera. So there are no more good

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<v Speaker 2>options for the dictator, because if that dictator orders the

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<v Speaker 2>use of lethal force, somebody actually has to do the firing,

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<v Speaker 2>and oftentimes it is exactly at that moment when the

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<v Speaker 2>opposition looks the weakest and the regime looks the strongest,

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<v Speaker 2>that the security forces refuse because they don't want to

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<v Speaker 2>kill their neighbors, they don't want to kill their own people.

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<v Speaker 2>And when that happens, the dictators lose control, or alternatively,

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<v Speaker 2>palace leites might refuse to go along with it. So

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<v Speaker 2>if you can bring out enough people into the streets,

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<v Speaker 2>you can almost get these regimes to collapse under the

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<v Speaker 2>weight of their own repression.

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<v Speaker 1>For the book, you interviewed everyone from diplomats to disidents.

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<v Speaker 1>Was there a conversation within all of the ones that

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<v Speaker 1>you had that had the greatest impact on your thinking

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<v Speaker 1>about the subject and why is that?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it was important to me to talk to people

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<v Speaker 2>that had actually been there, so to speak. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>I didn't want to make it too dry and too

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<v Speaker 2>too theoretic, So yeah, I mean, I talked to war criminals,

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<v Speaker 2>I talked to coup plotters, intelligence officials, and one conversation

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<v Speaker 2>is always going to stay with me, and it was

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<v Speaker 2>with a coup plotter who originally was a non violent activist,

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<v Speaker 2>so you know, he was half American off Gambian, and

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<v Speaker 2>he would raise money to weaken the dictatorship at home,

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<v Speaker 2>so to speak. But eventually things at home got so

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<v Speaker 2>bad because there were just more reports about people being tortured,

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<v Speaker 2>people being killed, that he had a decision to make.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, at what point would he give up the

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<v Speaker 2>non violent struggle and be willing to use violence or

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<v Speaker 2>to support violence in order to bring down this horrendous dictator.

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<v Speaker 2>And eventually he decided that nonviolence just wasn't enough.

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<v Speaker 1>What was the point for him?

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<v Speaker 2>I think the point was just that he saw that

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<v Speaker 2>there was no real hope in nonviolence in that particular case,

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<v Speaker 2>so he wanted to use nonviolence. You know, this is

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<v Speaker 2>who he was. He was a peaceful activist. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>he wasn't somebody who's going to pick up a gun

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<v Speaker 2>or support that in any way. But he just thought

0:11:08.280 --> 0:11:11.360
<v Speaker 2>it became increasingly futile, and you know, as people were

0:11:11.360 --> 0:11:14.360
<v Speaker 2>suffering so much. And what happened was eventually that he

0:11:14.400 --> 0:11:17.280
<v Speaker 2>became convinced that violence was the only solution, and this

0:11:17.360 --> 0:11:20.960
<v Speaker 2>peaceful activist turn into an international arms trafficker. So you

0:11:20.960 --> 0:11:23.640
<v Speaker 2>would buy guns and mass in the US and then

0:11:23.679 --> 0:11:27.400
<v Speaker 2>they would be shipped in oil drums across the Atlantic,

0:11:27.800 --> 0:11:31.360
<v Speaker 2>where then a team of fellow coup plotters would use

0:11:31.400 --> 0:11:34.360
<v Speaker 2>it back at home in West Africa. And you know,

0:11:34.440 --> 0:11:37.800
<v Speaker 2>I think this is something that I'm German, so given

0:11:37.840 --> 0:11:40.720
<v Speaker 2>our history, I often think, well, you know, what would

0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:43.439
<v Speaker 2>I have done? And you know this type of question, Okay,

0:11:43.440 --> 0:11:46.600
<v Speaker 2>when does violence become justified? I worry might be something

0:11:46.840 --> 0:11:48.920
<v Speaker 2>that all of us will have to think about more

0:11:48.960 --> 0:11:49.480
<v Speaker 2>in the future.

0:11:49.760 --> 0:11:52.960
<v Speaker 1>And being German as well as and having that history,

0:11:53.200 --> 0:11:57.600
<v Speaker 1>how did that affect how you approached the subject, if

0:11:57.640 --> 0:11:58.000
<v Speaker 1>at all.

0:11:58.240 --> 0:11:59.880
<v Speaker 2>You know, I think it's a topic that's difficult to

0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:02.600
<v Speaker 2>void if you're German, and for good reason. You know,

0:12:02.640 --> 0:12:05.240
<v Speaker 2>we think about it a lot our history and you

0:12:05.280 --> 0:12:06.800
<v Speaker 2>know what we can learn from it and what we

0:12:06.840 --> 0:12:09.240
<v Speaker 2>need to do in order to prevent anything like that

0:12:09.280 --> 0:12:12.000
<v Speaker 2>from ever happening again. So I think I've always been

0:12:12.040 --> 0:12:15.280
<v Speaker 2>interested in the topic in some way, purely because it's

0:12:15.280 --> 0:12:18.120
<v Speaker 2>difficult not to be. But I guess what really what

0:12:18.240 --> 0:12:20.720
<v Speaker 2>really got me onto the topic is after university I

0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:23.319
<v Speaker 2>decided to work in the Congo for a while, and

0:12:23.360 --> 0:12:25.480
<v Speaker 2>when I was working in a brewery in Lubumbashi, there

0:12:25.520 --> 0:12:27.960
<v Speaker 2>was a coup attempt in the capital in Kinchassa, and

0:12:28.080 --> 0:12:30.080
<v Speaker 2>even though I was quite far away, there was some

0:12:30.160 --> 0:12:33.240
<v Speaker 2>shooting in the vicinity and you know, an explosion nearby.

0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:37.199
<v Speaker 2>And that day also really stuck with me because when

0:12:37.240 --> 0:12:40.120
<v Speaker 2>it happened, I felt kind of helpless and in danger,

0:12:40.760 --> 0:12:43.280
<v Speaker 2>and I since then, I've always wanted to find out

0:12:43.600 --> 0:12:45.920
<v Speaker 2>what happened and why, you know, like how do you

0:12:45.920 --> 0:12:47.839
<v Speaker 2>get rid of these people? How do they stay in power?

0:12:47.880 --> 0:12:49.680
<v Speaker 2>How does a coup work? You know, when do people

0:12:49.679 --> 0:12:52.320
<v Speaker 2>get assassinated? So yeah, I think it's history, but it's

0:12:52.320 --> 0:12:54.480
<v Speaker 2>also just you know, live the experience in a way.

0:12:54.760 --> 0:12:58.720
<v Speaker 1>So we often hear about you know, Stalin Hitler movies,

0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:01.880
<v Speaker 1>TV school history classes, But do you think there are

0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:07.120
<v Speaker 1>perhaps better examples out there we should be placing better

0:13:07.200 --> 0:13:10.280
<v Speaker 1>emphasis on when studying these kind of regimes.

0:13:10.480 --> 0:13:12.800
<v Speaker 2>The book is an attempt to look at general mechanisms

0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:15.960
<v Speaker 2>to understand what these leaders might do, what their incentives are,

0:13:15.960 --> 0:13:19.000
<v Speaker 2>whether they're Stalin or Hitler or somebody from Paraguay or

0:13:19.080 --> 0:13:21.760
<v Speaker 2>you know, the Gambia. But I do think in some

0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:24.800
<v Speaker 2>ways we limit ourselves in our analysis by always looking

0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:27.480
<v Speaker 2>back to Hitler or to Stalin, so we see a

0:13:27.679 --> 0:13:30.560
<v Speaker 2>democratic politician who would like to turn into a dictator

0:13:30.679 --> 0:13:33.160
<v Speaker 2>or an authoritarian. And you know, it's always like, well,

0:13:33.160 --> 0:13:35.200
<v Speaker 2>this is like Hitler, this is like Hitler. But you know,

0:13:35.240 --> 0:13:37.120
<v Speaker 2>there are a lot of you know, non democratic leaders

0:13:37.160 --> 0:13:40.120
<v Speaker 2>in human history, and in fact, you know, I would

0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:43.800
<v Speaker 2>argue that tyranny is the default of human existence. You know,

0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:46.640
<v Speaker 2>usually we have been ruled by tyrants in one way

0:13:46.720 --> 0:13:50.840
<v Speaker 2>or another. So yeah, I mean, I think we would

0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:52.679
<v Speaker 2>do well to look at a wider range of these

0:13:52.760 --> 0:13:54.760
<v Speaker 2>leaders to understand what is happening in the world today.

0:13:54.920 --> 0:13:57.880
<v Speaker 1>Are there any that you would suggest for a high

0:13:57.880 --> 0:14:00.360
<v Speaker 1>school history teacher who came up to you and I you,

0:14:00.400 --> 0:14:03.160
<v Speaker 1>what should my next term's topic be? What would you

0:14:03.160 --> 0:14:03.600
<v Speaker 1>tell them?

0:14:03.679 --> 0:14:05.600
<v Speaker 2>You know, I think it's probably easiest to approach these

0:14:05.640 --> 0:14:07.960
<v Speaker 2>topics with people who haven't thought about it a lot

0:14:08.080 --> 0:14:10.800
<v Speaker 2>by making reference to the contemporary world. You know, my

0:14:10.840 --> 0:14:13.400
<v Speaker 2>experience is that it's maybe a little bit more difficult

0:14:13.480 --> 0:14:16.760
<v Speaker 2>to get people to be interested in seventeenth century Paraguay.

0:14:17.480 --> 0:14:18.880
<v Speaker 2>You know, then it would be to talk to them

0:14:18.880 --> 0:14:21.200
<v Speaker 2>maybe about Kim Jong un or to talk about Putin,

0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:23.720
<v Speaker 2>and to talk about contemporary leaders. So I think what

0:14:23.760 --> 0:14:26.400
<v Speaker 2>I would do is to look at contemporary leaders and

0:14:26.520 --> 0:14:28.400
<v Speaker 2>you know, see how they behave, see what they do,

0:14:28.560 --> 0:14:30.960
<v Speaker 2>what they don't do, and then maybe try to explain

0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:33.240
<v Speaker 2>their behavior by looking at people from the past.

0:14:38.520 --> 0:14:43.000
<v Speaker 4>History made overnight. As Syrian dictator Bashal Assad is overthrown

0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:45.920
<v Speaker 4>in a lightning move by rebel fighters, they are this

0:14:46.040 --> 0:14:50.480
<v Speaker 4>morning inside the presidential Palace walking it's huge halls, celebrating

0:14:50.520 --> 0:14:54.000
<v Speaker 4>amid the abandoned luxury of the Assad regime. As outside,

0:14:54.080 --> 0:14:57.240
<v Speaker 4>jubilation spreads on the streets of the capitol. For a moment,

0:14:57.440 --> 0:15:01.280
<v Speaker 4>few saw coming rebels declaring victories, the state TV studios

0:15:01.440 --> 0:15:04.560
<v Speaker 4>saying the city of Damascus has been liberated. The tyrant

0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:08.360
<v Speaker 4>bashal Assad has been toppled, the rebels seizing Damascus almost

0:15:08.480 --> 0:15:11.720
<v Speaker 4>without a fight, as Assad's military appeared to evaporate.

0:15:15.560 --> 0:15:18.680
<v Speaker 1>Is there ever a right way for a dictatorship to

0:15:18.760 --> 0:15:21.000
<v Speaker 1>fall or are they just all kind of doomed to

0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:25.200
<v Speaker 1>be quite messy, quite unpredictable and eventually dangerous.

0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:27.360
<v Speaker 2>If it is possible, the best way to bring down

0:15:27.400 --> 0:15:29.720
<v Speaker 2>dictators is soon nonviolence. So you want to bring out

0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:32.200
<v Speaker 2>those people in the streets, and you want to bring

0:15:32.240 --> 0:15:34.640
<v Speaker 2>them down by not using force. And part of the

0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:37.840
<v Speaker 2>reason is again due to incentives. So if you know,

0:15:37.920 --> 0:15:41.440
<v Speaker 2>couplotters bring down a dictator, usually their comparative advantage is

0:15:41.520 --> 0:15:44.440
<v Speaker 2>violence because that's what they just used. So going forward,

0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:47.320
<v Speaker 2>they might not be particularly interested in democratizing the country.

0:15:47.360 --> 0:15:50.040
<v Speaker 2>But usually when you have masses of people in the streets,

0:15:50.360 --> 0:15:53.000
<v Speaker 2>they're already good at forming some sort of consensus on

0:15:53.080 --> 0:15:54.960
<v Speaker 2>some things. You know, they have to find a way

0:15:55.000 --> 0:15:58.320
<v Speaker 2>to solve their disputes without using force. So when they

0:15:58.360 --> 0:16:00.440
<v Speaker 2>are then in power, you know, they want to stick

0:16:00.480 --> 0:16:02.120
<v Speaker 2>to what they're good at, So they're much like, much

0:16:02.160 --> 0:16:05.840
<v Speaker 2>more likely to democratize than you know, rebels or coup plot.

0:16:05.680 --> 0:16:08.680
<v Speaker 1>Of Are there any current leaders or regimes that, in

0:16:08.720 --> 0:16:11.920
<v Speaker 1>your view, are exhibiting signs of vulnerability?

0:16:12.040 --> 0:16:13.800
<v Speaker 2>I think all of them, do you know. I think

0:16:13.880 --> 0:16:15.440
<v Speaker 2>this is one of the things that I think people

0:16:15.520 --> 0:16:18.120
<v Speaker 2>get wrong. So people look at these dictators staying in

0:16:18.160 --> 0:16:21.640
<v Speaker 2>powerful multiple decades, and they think that that necessarily translates

0:16:21.640 --> 0:16:22.840
<v Speaker 2>into stability.

0:16:22.360 --> 0:16:22.840
<v Speaker 1>In the future.

0:16:22.880 --> 0:16:25.760
<v Speaker 2>Well, look at b Alasade, you look at Basha a Lassade,

0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:27.240
<v Speaker 2>and you know, one of the reasons for that is

0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:30.880
<v Speaker 2>because in these regimes you cannot afford to lose just

0:16:31.000 --> 0:16:32.960
<v Speaker 2>a few people, you know, These are winner takes at

0:16:32.960 --> 0:16:36.680
<v Speaker 2>all systems, and they are based on the perception of inevitability.

0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:39.680
<v Speaker 2>So Bashallah started stayed in power because people thought that

0:16:39.720 --> 0:16:42.240
<v Speaker 2>there was no real alternatives. But the moment that his

0:16:42.400 --> 0:16:45.360
<v Speaker 2>own people and the people at large realized, you know what,

0:16:45.440 --> 0:16:47.560
<v Speaker 2>actually that could be an alternative, he could be toppled.

0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:50.520
<v Speaker 2>This could actually happened. He was toppled very quickly, and

0:16:50.720 --> 0:16:53.000
<v Speaker 2>in the Syrian capital of Damascus. What you saw is

0:16:53.040 --> 0:16:55.880
<v Speaker 2>that his own soldiers would just take over their uniforms

0:16:56.040 --> 0:16:58.240
<v Speaker 2>from to the side of the road and go home.

0:16:58.360 --> 0:17:01.080
<v Speaker 2>So even though these regimes may look stable, they are

0:17:01.160 --> 0:17:04.040
<v Speaker 2>much more fragile than they seem. And every dictator can

0:17:04.040 --> 0:17:04.840
<v Speaker 2>fall at any moment.

0:17:05.080 --> 0:17:09.280
<v Speaker 1>And finally, what can countries like New Zealand, a rather

0:17:09.359 --> 0:17:12.399
<v Speaker 1>small player on the world stage, what can we do

0:17:12.600 --> 0:17:15.000
<v Speaker 1>to help communities under these kind of leaders.

0:17:15.359 --> 0:17:18.160
<v Speaker 2>Usually the closer you are to power, the more influence

0:17:18.240 --> 0:17:21.000
<v Speaker 2>you have on the fall of a dictator. So you know,

0:17:21.040 --> 0:17:23.080
<v Speaker 2>the minister of Defense is going to have more influence

0:17:23.119 --> 0:17:25.520
<v Speaker 2>than a mid ranking civil servant, and that mid ranking

0:17:25.560 --> 0:17:27.600
<v Speaker 2>civil servant is going to have more influence than a

0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:30.159
<v Speaker 2>shopkeeper somewhere in the hinterlands. And when it comes to

0:17:30.200 --> 0:17:33.800
<v Speaker 2>foreign powers. Again, much of it is determined by their intent,

0:17:33.880 --> 0:17:35.520
<v Speaker 2>you know, what are they willing to risk, but also

0:17:35.600 --> 0:17:38.280
<v Speaker 2>by their capabilities, So what could they actually bring to

0:17:38.320 --> 0:17:41.000
<v Speaker 2>bear in terms of economic power or in terms of

0:17:41.000 --> 0:17:44.320
<v Speaker 2>military power. Smaller countries, I think, do have a role

0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:47.119
<v Speaker 2>to play, but it is at the lower end of

0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:49.439
<v Speaker 2>the risk spectrum. So you know, there are things like

0:17:49.520 --> 0:17:52.720
<v Speaker 2>supporting journalists. You know, you can go ahead with sanctions,

0:17:52.800 --> 0:17:55.640
<v Speaker 2>you can support independent NGOs, and all of these things

0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:57.919
<v Speaker 2>are good. They're not necessarily going to lead to the

0:17:57.960 --> 0:18:01.560
<v Speaker 2>fall of dictators immediately, but they will create the conditions

0:18:01.760 --> 0:18:04.320
<v Speaker 2>that you need for that moment when that crisis arrives.

0:18:04.400 --> 0:18:06.119
<v Speaker 2>You know, when there is that spark and you know

0:18:06.160 --> 0:18:09.000
<v Speaker 2>a revolution could happen. Countries like New Zealand can leave

0:18:09.000 --> 0:18:09.760
<v Speaker 2>the groundwork for that.

0:18:09.960 --> 0:18:12.120
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for joining us, Marcel, Thank you very much.

0:18:12.040 --> 0:18:12.439
<v Speaker 2>For having me.

0:18:16.080 --> 0:18:19.199
<v Speaker 1>That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You

0:18:19.200 --> 0:18:23.040
<v Speaker 1>can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage

0:18:23.040 --> 0:18:27.080
<v Speaker 1>at enzdherld dot co dot enz. The Front Page is

0:18:27.119 --> 0:18:30.840
<v Speaker 1>produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also

0:18:31.000 --> 0:18:35.680
<v Speaker 1>our sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front

0:18:35.680 --> 0:18:39.280
<v Speaker 1>page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and

0:18:39.400 --> 0:18:43.000
<v Speaker 1>tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.