1 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:08,840 Speaker 1: Hilda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, 2 00:00:09,280 --> 00:00:16,640 Speaker 1: a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald Adolf Hitler, 3 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 1: Joseph Stalin, Benito Mussolini, Poulpott, Saddam Hussein. Apart from being 4 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:26,800 Speaker 1: some of the most famous dictators in human history, they 5 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 1: all have one thing in common. They all had dramatic, violent, 6 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:36,240 Speaker 1: and disgraced downfalls, but in almost every case foreign powers 7 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:40,599 Speaker 1: played a major role in shaping the post dictatorship future. 8 00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:45,600 Speaker 1: How Tyrants Fall and How Nations Survive by political scientist 9 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:49,879 Speaker 1: Marcel Dursis delves into the vulnerabilities of these kinds of 10 00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 1: regimes and explores strategies for their dismantling. Dursas was recently 11 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 1: in New Zealand for the Auckland Writers' Festival and joined 12 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:01,120 Speaker 1: The Front Page while here to discuss tyrants and whether 13 00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:10,040 Speaker 1: we've learned anything at all from the world's darkest rulers. Marcelle. 14 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:14,840 Speaker 1: The book opens with this line, the most powerful tyrants 15 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:18,440 Speaker 1: on earth are condemned to live their life in fear. 16 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:20,280 Speaker 1: Can you elaborate on this for me? Yeah? 17 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:22,640 Speaker 2: I think in our democracies there's this idea that these 18 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:24,920 Speaker 2: leaders are all powerful, and that they can do whatever 19 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 2: they want whenever they want it, and that in some 20 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:29,759 Speaker 2: ways it can be quite a fabulous existence, but reality 21 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:32,160 Speaker 2: is far from that. So one of the big problems 22 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:34,400 Speaker 2: that these leaders have is that when they lose power, 23 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:37,039 Speaker 2: oftentimes they also lose their freedom or their life. So 24 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 2: when political scientists looked at the statistics for this, they 25 00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 2: found that over two thirds of personalist dictators ended up imprisoned, 26 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 2: in forced exile, or dead after losing power. 27 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 1: What are the key components of a dictator? 28 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean so I deliberately talked about tyrants in 29 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:55,200 Speaker 2: the book because I wanted to look at a broad 30 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 2: selection of leaders. So I wanted to look at your 31 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 2: military dictatorships, one party dictatorships, king's theocrats. And the way 32 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 2: that I think about it is the amount of people 33 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 2: that you need in order to maintain power. So in 34 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 2: a functioning democracy like New Zealand, where you are free elections, 35 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 2: you need millions of people because you need to win 36 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 2: those elections. But if you're somebody like Vladimir Putin or 37 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 2: you're Kim Jong un, you just need a tiny share 38 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 2: of the population to hold that power. And usually these 39 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 2: are your advisors. These are generals or intelligence officials. So 40 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:27,120 Speaker 2: what I'm interested in are those types of political systems 41 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:29,119 Speaker 2: where you just need a tiny share of the population 42 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 2: because that changes everything. 43 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 1: And what are some of the personality traits of a tyrant? 44 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:36,080 Speaker 1: I mean, you're probably got to have a pretty good 45 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:37,799 Speaker 1: reckoning of yourself. Yeah. 46 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 2: These people are deeply, deeply weird, you know, and they 47 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:43,960 Speaker 2: would do a terrible job if they had an ordinary 48 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 2: work to do, right, So if they set in an 49 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 2: office environment or in a cubicle, they'd be terrible added, 50 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:51,280 Speaker 2: But they are in a way rational, and they're oftentimes 51 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:53,519 Speaker 2: very good at what they do. So within the system 52 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:55,720 Speaker 2: in which they operate, it's a good thing if you're 53 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 2: a narcissist. It's a good thing if you have no 54 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:01,239 Speaker 2: empathy for others, because you need to horrific violence on 55 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 2: people all of the time. And perhaps you have a 56 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 2: normal conversation with them, smiling at them, and in the 57 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:09,080 Speaker 2: evening you order their death. So these people are not 58 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:11,680 Speaker 2: normal in any sense of the world, but they are 59 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:14,519 Speaker 2: often quite suited for that particular role. 60 00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:18,200 Speaker 1: Are there any warning signs that a populist politician is 61 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 1: becoming an authoritarian leader? Yeah? 62 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 2: I mean the first thing is intent, so you know, 63 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 2: you're sort of boring, run of the middle. Politicians usually 64 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 2: don't want to be dictators. You know, I don't know 65 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 2: what it's like in New Zealand, but you know our 66 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:34,519 Speaker 2: Chancellor is a boring centrist. I really don't think he 67 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 2: wants to be a dictator. So the first question is 68 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 2: do they want it? And then from there on out 69 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 2: it gets a little bit more difficult because there's really 70 00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 2: not a one way in which people dismantle democracy. But 71 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 2: if I look at some of the struggling democracies right now, 72 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:48,640 Speaker 2: you know there are things that are particularly alarming. So 73 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 2: one of them is the justice system, because if you 74 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 2: can ignore judges or you can replace them with your own, 75 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:58,000 Speaker 2: democracy is going to struggle immediately. But even more importantly 76 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 2: is what happens to the security forces, because a court 77 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:03,320 Speaker 2: judgment is no good if you can't implement it, and 78 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 2: whether a court judgment gets implemented or not ultimately depends 79 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 2: on the men and women with guns. So if you 80 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:10,800 Speaker 2: can ignore them, or if you can find a way 81 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 2: to capture the military or the security services, then democracy 82 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:17,320 Speaker 2: will almost inevitably die. 83 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:19,440 Speaker 1: Your book is a bit of a positive in some 84 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:22,479 Speaker 1: ways because it shows that a lot of tyrants are 85 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 1: susceptible to a downfall. What makes them so prone to 86 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:28,080 Speaker 1: this kind of failure. 87 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, So one of the things that dictators often struggle 88 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 2: with is something called a dictator's dilemma. So they don't 89 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:37,280 Speaker 2: ever actually know who's genuinely loyal and who's just pretending 90 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 2: to be. Because if you advise that dictator and he says, listen, 91 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:41,600 Speaker 2: I have a great idea, you're not going to say 92 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:43,039 Speaker 2: it's a bad idea because you don't want to go 93 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 2: to a gulag or die, so you're going to lie. 94 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 2: And over time, what happens is that these leaders are 95 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:50,920 Speaker 2: constantly being lied to every day for multiple years, and 96 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 2: gradually they just detach from reality and they no longer 97 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 2: understand what is happening in their own country, let alone 98 00:04:56,440 --> 00:04:58,279 Speaker 2: in a different one. And this is something that invites 99 00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:00,599 Speaker 2: catastrophic mistakes, and that's part of the reason why they're 100 00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 2: so prone to falling right. 101 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:05,360 Speaker 1: And they're just encapsulated by that bubble of yes people. 102 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:07,359 Speaker 2: Yeah, and also, you know, the thing to remember is that, 103 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:09,040 Speaker 2: I mean, some of these people have grown up in it. 104 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:12,600 Speaker 2: So Kim Jong Lunn, for example, started carrying a pistol. 105 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 2: When he was a child, you know, he would where 106 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 2: the sort of make believe uniform, and when he saw 107 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 2: an actual general, that real general, an adult would salute him. 108 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 1: You know. 109 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 2: He liked to play with these little toy ships, and 110 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:25,320 Speaker 2: if he had a problem with one of his toy 111 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:28,360 Speaker 2: ships at night, he would summon a nautical engineer, and 112 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:31,920 Speaker 2: that nautical engineer would have no choice but to go 113 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:34,719 Speaker 2: and help him. Right, So it is no surprise that 114 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:38,039 Speaker 2: people like that are totally broken and aren't able to 115 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 2: make good decisions. 116 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 3: Do dictators love Trump? That's unclear. Dictators are transactional. They 117 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:49,839 Speaker 3: use each other. If dictators are loving Trump at the 118 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:52,839 Speaker 3: moment is because they think that he can be an ally, 119 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:55,320 Speaker 3: that they can get something from him. If we take 120 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 3: as the example Vladimir Putin, he and Trump have a 121 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:02,600 Speaker 3: good relationship, and yet he allows Trump to be marked 122 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:06,039 Speaker 3: on Russian television as a useful fool. 123 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 1: How long do these leaders reign for usually, and how 124 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:16,359 Speaker 1: do people go about toppling one of these regimes? Because 125 00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:18,479 Speaker 1: some of them are quite short, so a few years, 126 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:20,080 Speaker 1: but some of them last for decades. 127 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:22,640 Speaker 2: Some of these people are extremely good at making the 128 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:24,400 Speaker 2: kind of trade offs that they need to make in 129 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 2: order to maintain power. But one of the huge weaknesses 130 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:30,120 Speaker 2: that these systems have is succession. So again, if you 131 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 2: take a functioning democracy like New Zealand or Germany or 132 00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 2: the UK, you get one leader gets voted out and 133 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 2: then you know, a couple of days later, the next 134 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 2: one walks right back in. And if there's some sort 135 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 2: of dispute, we have institutions to deal with it. We 136 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:45,800 Speaker 2: have courts, we have an electoral commission, we have independent 137 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:48,839 Speaker 2: journalism toward people accountable. But in these systems, what the 138 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:51,279 Speaker 2: dictators tend to do is to either destroy all of 139 00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 2: those institutions or try to capture them. So when the 140 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:57,160 Speaker 2: dictator is no longer around for some reason, the whole 141 00:06:57,200 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 2: thing often goes up in flames, because all of a sudden, 142 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:02,320 Speaker 2: then that dispute turns from the shooting in the streets. 143 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:04,840 Speaker 2: So the length can vary quite a lot. And when 144 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 2: it comes to the best ways to toppling these leaders, 145 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 2: you know, just as dictators are forced to make trade 146 00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:11,400 Speaker 2: offs in order to maintain power, we have to make 147 00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 2: tradeoffs in trying to deal with them. And a large 148 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 2: question is, you know, how much risk are we actually 149 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 2: willing to assume, because of course, you know, when democratic 150 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 2: leaders go on TV, they say, oh, this is all 151 00:07:21,320 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 2: about democracy promotion. You know, we just want to you know, 152 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:26,560 Speaker 2: bring our values into the world. But obviously that's not 153 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 2: how it actually works in reality. You know, states have 154 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 2: all kinds of interests. Some of them might be related 155 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 2: to democracy, but many are not. 156 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 1: Are there any kind of common weaknesses or blind spots 157 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:41,160 Speaker 1: between these regimes that other countries are able to take 158 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 1: advantage of in order to limit their impact on the 159 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 1: rest of the world. 160 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think one of the things that is comparatively 161 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 2: easy and comparatively low risk is looking at the ways 162 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 2: in which these regimes try to use our own system 163 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 2: against us. So you know, in Europe, for example, there's 164 00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 2: barely a football club inside that isn't owned by some 165 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:01,920 Speaker 2: oligarch or you know, royal family in one way or another. 166 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 2: You know, China is buying up ports. You know, there 167 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:08,679 Speaker 2: are all kinds of critical infrastructure investments that these regimes 168 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:11,320 Speaker 2: are making, and we let it go on in essence 169 00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:14,680 Speaker 2: because we're greedy. You know, We've got hordes of accountants 170 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 2: and bankers and lawyers that are making money of this, 171 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 2: and this is something that we could change if we 172 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:21,680 Speaker 2: wanted to, and it would make life a lot more 173 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:23,400 Speaker 2: difficult for these types of leaders. 174 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:29,440 Speaker 1: If there's huge power in something like nonviolent protest, for example, 175 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:33,840 Speaker 1: in regimes where dissent is met with extreme violence, what 176 00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:36,840 Speaker 1: options do civilians realistically have. 177 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, So interestingly, nonviolent protests can be incredibly effective even 178 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 2: in regimes in which violence is used regularly, And in 179 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:46,599 Speaker 2: a way, that's a fascinating topic because you know, you 180 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 2: look at these pensioners, you look at these teenagers, and 181 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 2: these just unarmed people marching in the streets, and oftentimes 182 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:55,680 Speaker 2: they can bring down even entrenched dictatorships, and you think, well, 183 00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:58,720 Speaker 2: how is that possible? And the way that it works 184 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 2: is that if there are too many people in the streets, 185 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 2: dictators have to respond because they cannot afford to look weak, 186 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:07,200 Speaker 2: so they use violence. But when you club down women 187 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 2: and children or pensioners, oftentimes the next day you have 188 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:12,199 Speaker 2: even more people in the streets, and then you're forced 189 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:14,600 Speaker 2: into something that in German we call a choice between 190 00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:17,079 Speaker 2: the plague and cholera. So there are no more good 191 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:20,280 Speaker 2: options for the dictator, because if that dictator orders the 192 00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:23,320 Speaker 2: use of lethal force, somebody actually has to do the firing, 193 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:26,440 Speaker 2: and oftentimes it is exactly at that moment when the 194 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:29,280 Speaker 2: opposition looks the weakest and the regime looks the strongest, 195 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:32,319 Speaker 2: that the security forces refuse because they don't want to 196 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:34,200 Speaker 2: kill their neighbors, they don't want to kill their own people. 197 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:38,079 Speaker 2: And when that happens, the dictators lose control, or alternatively, 198 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 2: palace leites might refuse to go along with it. So 199 00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 2: if you can bring out enough people into the streets, 200 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:45,080 Speaker 2: you can almost get these regimes to collapse under the 201 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:46,200 Speaker 2: weight of their own repression. 202 00:09:55,679 --> 00:10:00,599 Speaker 1: For the book, you interviewed everyone from diplomats to disidents. 203 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:03,960 Speaker 1: Was there a conversation within all of the ones that 204 00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:07,200 Speaker 1: you had that had the greatest impact on your thinking 205 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 1: about the subject and why is that? 206 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:10,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, it was important to me to talk to people 207 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:13,680 Speaker 2: that had actually been there, so to speak. You know, 208 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:15,280 Speaker 2: I didn't want to make it too dry and too 209 00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 2: too theoretic, So yeah, I mean, I talked to war criminals, 210 00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:21,200 Speaker 2: I talked to coup plotters, intelligence officials, and one conversation 211 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:23,080 Speaker 2: is always going to stay with me, and it was 212 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 2: with a coup plotter who originally was a non violent activist, 213 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 2: so you know, he was half American off Gambian, and 214 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 2: he would raise money to weaken the dictatorship at home, 215 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 2: so to speak. But eventually things at home got so 216 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:38,000 Speaker 2: bad because there were just more reports about people being tortured, 217 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:40,319 Speaker 2: people being killed, that he had a decision to make. 218 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 2: You know, at what point would he give up the 219 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:46,600 Speaker 2: non violent struggle and be willing to use violence or 220 00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:49,960 Speaker 2: to support violence in order to bring down this horrendous dictator. 221 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 2: And eventually he decided that nonviolence just wasn't enough. 222 00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 1: What was the point for him? 223 00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:57,760 Speaker 2: I think the point was just that he saw that 224 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:00,680 Speaker 2: there was no real hope in nonviolence in that particular case, 225 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 2: so he wanted to use nonviolence. You know, this is 226 00:11:02,520 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 2: who he was. He was a peaceful activist. You know, 227 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 2: he wasn't somebody who's going to pick up a gun 228 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 2: or support that in any way. But he just thought 229 00:11:08,280 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 2: it became increasingly futile, and you know, as people were 230 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:14,360 Speaker 2: suffering so much. And what happened was eventually that he 231 00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:17,280 Speaker 2: became convinced that violence was the only solution, and this 232 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:20,960 Speaker 2: peaceful activist turn into an international arms trafficker. So you 233 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:23,640 Speaker 2: would buy guns and mass in the US and then 234 00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:27,400 Speaker 2: they would be shipped in oil drums across the Atlantic, 235 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:31,360 Speaker 2: where then a team of fellow coup plotters would use 236 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 2: it back at home in West Africa. And you know, 237 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 2: I think this is something that I'm German, so given 238 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 2: our history, I often think, well, you know, what would 239 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:43,439 Speaker 2: I have done? And you know this type of question, Okay, 240 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:46,600 Speaker 2: when does violence become justified? I worry might be something 241 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 2: that all of us will have to think about more 242 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 2: in the future. 243 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:52,960 Speaker 1: And being German as well as and having that history, 244 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 1: how did that affect how you approached the subject, if 245 00:11:57,640 --> 00:11:58,000 Speaker 1: at all. 246 00:11:58,240 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 2: You know, I think it's a topic that's difficult to 247 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 2: void if you're German, and for good reason. You know, 248 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:05,240 Speaker 2: we think about it a lot our history and you 249 00:12:05,280 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 2: know what we can learn from it and what we 250 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 2: need to do in order to prevent anything like that 251 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 2: from ever happening again. So I think I've always been 252 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 2: interested in the topic in some way, purely because it's 253 00:12:15,280 --> 00:12:18,120 Speaker 2: difficult not to be. But I guess what really what 254 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:20,720 Speaker 2: really got me onto the topic is after university I 255 00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:23,319 Speaker 2: decided to work in the Congo for a while, and 256 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:25,480 Speaker 2: when I was working in a brewery in Lubumbashi, there 257 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:27,960 Speaker 2: was a coup attempt in the capital in Kinchassa, and 258 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:30,080 Speaker 2: even though I was quite far away, there was some 259 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 2: shooting in the vicinity and you know, an explosion nearby. 260 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:37,199 Speaker 2: And that day also really stuck with me because when 261 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 2: it happened, I felt kind of helpless and in danger, 262 00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 2: and I since then, I've always wanted to find out 263 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 2: what happened and why, you know, like how do you 264 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:47,839 Speaker 2: get rid of these people? How do they stay in power? 265 00:12:47,880 --> 00:12:49,680 Speaker 2: How does a coup work? You know, when do people 266 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:52,320 Speaker 2: get assassinated? So yeah, I think it's history, but it's 267 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:54,480 Speaker 2: also just you know, live the experience in a way. 268 00:12:54,760 --> 00:12:58,720 Speaker 1: So we often hear about you know, Stalin Hitler movies, 269 00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:01,880 Speaker 1: TV school history classes, But do you think there are 270 00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:07,120 Speaker 1: perhaps better examples out there we should be placing better 271 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:10,280 Speaker 1: emphasis on when studying these kind of regimes. 272 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 2: The book is an attempt to look at general mechanisms 273 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:15,960 Speaker 2: to understand what these leaders might do, what their incentives are, 274 00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 2: whether they're Stalin or Hitler or somebody from Paraguay or 275 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:21,760 Speaker 2: you know, the Gambia. But I do think in some 276 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 2: ways we limit ourselves in our analysis by always looking 277 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:27,480 Speaker 2: back to Hitler or to Stalin, so we see a 278 00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:30,560 Speaker 2: democratic politician who would like to turn into a dictator 279 00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:33,160 Speaker 2: or an authoritarian. And you know, it's always like, well, 280 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:35,200 Speaker 2: this is like Hitler, this is like Hitler. But you know, 281 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 2: there are a lot of you know, non democratic leaders 282 00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 2: in human history, and in fact, you know, I would 283 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:43,800 Speaker 2: argue that tyranny is the default of human existence. You know, 284 00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:46,640 Speaker 2: usually we have been ruled by tyrants in one way 285 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:50,840 Speaker 2: or another. So yeah, I mean, I think we would 286 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:52,679 Speaker 2: do well to look at a wider range of these 287 00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 2: leaders to understand what is happening in the world today. 288 00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:57,880 Speaker 1: Are there any that you would suggest for a high 289 00:13:57,880 --> 00:14:00,360 Speaker 1: school history teacher who came up to you and I you, 290 00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:03,160 Speaker 1: what should my next term's topic be? What would you 291 00:14:03,160 --> 00:14:03,600 Speaker 1: tell them? 292 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 2: You know, I think it's probably easiest to approach these 293 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:07,960 Speaker 2: topics with people who haven't thought about it a lot 294 00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 2: by making reference to the contemporary world. You know, my 295 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 2: experience is that it's maybe a little bit more difficult 296 00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:16,760 Speaker 2: to get people to be interested in seventeenth century Paraguay. 297 00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:18,880 Speaker 2: You know, then it would be to talk to them 298 00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 2: maybe about Kim Jong un or to talk about Putin, 299 00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:23,720 Speaker 2: and to talk about contemporary leaders. So I think what 300 00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:26,400 Speaker 2: I would do is to look at contemporary leaders and 301 00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 2: you know, see how they behave, see what they do, 302 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 2: what they don't do, and then maybe try to explain 303 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:33,240 Speaker 2: their behavior by looking at people from the past. 304 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:43,000 Speaker 4: History made overnight. As Syrian dictator Bashal Assad is overthrown 305 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 4: in a lightning move by rebel fighters, they are this 306 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 4: morning inside the presidential Palace walking it's huge halls, celebrating 307 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:54,000 Speaker 4: amid the abandoned luxury of the Assad regime. As outside, 308 00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 4: jubilation spreads on the streets of the capitol. For a moment, 309 00:14:57,440 --> 00:15:01,280 Speaker 4: few saw coming rebels declaring victories, the state TV studios 310 00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:04,560 Speaker 4: saying the city of Damascus has been liberated. The tyrant 311 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:08,360 Speaker 4: bashal Assad has been toppled, the rebels seizing Damascus almost 312 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 4: without a fight, as Assad's military appeared to evaporate. 313 00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 1: Is there ever a right way for a dictatorship to 314 00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:21,000 Speaker 1: fall or are they just all kind of doomed to 315 00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 1: be quite messy, quite unpredictable and eventually dangerous. 316 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:27,360 Speaker 2: If it is possible, the best way to bring down 317 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:29,720 Speaker 2: dictators is soon nonviolence. So you want to bring out 318 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 2: those people in the streets, and you want to bring 319 00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 2: them down by not using force. And part of the 320 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:37,840 Speaker 2: reason is again due to incentives. So if you know, 321 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 2: couplotters bring down a dictator, usually their comparative advantage is 322 00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:44,440 Speaker 2: violence because that's what they just used. So going forward, 323 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:47,320 Speaker 2: they might not be particularly interested in democratizing the country. 324 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 2: But usually when you have masses of people in the streets, 325 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:53,000 Speaker 2: they're already good at forming some sort of consensus on 326 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 2: some things. You know, they have to find a way 327 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:58,320 Speaker 2: to solve their disputes without using force. So when they 328 00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:00,440 Speaker 2: are then in power, you know, they want to stick 329 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 2: to what they're good at, So they're much like, much 330 00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:05,840 Speaker 2: more likely to democratize than you know, rebels or coup plot. 331 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:08,680 Speaker 1: Of Are there any current leaders or regimes that, in 332 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:11,920 Speaker 1: your view, are exhibiting signs of vulnerability? 333 00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:13,800 Speaker 2: I think all of them, do you know. I think 334 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:15,440 Speaker 2: this is one of the things that I think people 335 00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 2: get wrong. So people look at these dictators staying in 336 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:21,640 Speaker 2: powerful multiple decades, and they think that that necessarily translates 337 00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 2: into stability. 338 00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 1: In the future. 339 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:25,760 Speaker 2: Well, look at b Alasade, you look at Basha a Lassade, 340 00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 2: and you know, one of the reasons for that is 341 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 2: because in these regimes you cannot afford to lose just 342 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:32,960 Speaker 2: a few people, you know, These are winner takes at 343 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 2: all systems, and they are based on the perception of inevitability. 344 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:39,680 Speaker 2: So Bashallah started stayed in power because people thought that 345 00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:42,240 Speaker 2: there was no real alternatives. But the moment that his 346 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 2: own people and the people at large realized, you know what, 347 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 2: actually that could be an alternative, he could be toppled. 348 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 2: This could actually happened. He was toppled very quickly, and 349 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:53,000 Speaker 2: in the Syrian capital of Damascus. What you saw is 350 00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:55,880 Speaker 2: that his own soldiers would just take over their uniforms 351 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 2: from to the side of the road and go home. 352 00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:01,080 Speaker 2: So even though these regimes may look stable, they are 353 00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:04,040 Speaker 2: much more fragile than they seem. And every dictator can 354 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 2: fall at any moment. 355 00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:09,280 Speaker 1: And finally, what can countries like New Zealand, a rather 356 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:12,399 Speaker 1: small player on the world stage, what can we do 357 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 1: to help communities under these kind of leaders. 358 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,160 Speaker 2: Usually the closer you are to power, the more influence 359 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:21,000 Speaker 2: you have on the fall of a dictator. So you know, 360 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 2: the minister of Defense is going to have more influence 361 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:25,520 Speaker 2: than a mid ranking civil servant, and that mid ranking 362 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:27,600 Speaker 2: civil servant is going to have more influence than a 363 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:30,159 Speaker 2: shopkeeper somewhere in the hinterlands. And when it comes to 364 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 2: foreign powers. Again, much of it is determined by their intent, 365 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:35,520 Speaker 2: you know, what are they willing to risk, but also 366 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:38,280 Speaker 2: by their capabilities, So what could they actually bring to 367 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:41,000 Speaker 2: bear in terms of economic power or in terms of 368 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 2: military power. Smaller countries, I think, do have a role 369 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:47,119 Speaker 2: to play, but it is at the lower end of 370 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:49,439 Speaker 2: the risk spectrum. So you know, there are things like 371 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:52,720 Speaker 2: supporting journalists. You know, you can go ahead with sanctions, 372 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:55,640 Speaker 2: you can support independent NGOs, and all of these things 373 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:57,919 Speaker 2: are good. They're not necessarily going to lead to the 374 00:17:57,960 --> 00:18:01,560 Speaker 2: fall of dictators immediately, but they will create the conditions 375 00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:04,320 Speaker 2: that you need for that moment when that crisis arrives. 376 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:06,119 Speaker 2: You know, when there is that spark and you know 377 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 2: a revolution could happen. Countries like New Zealand can leave 378 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 2: the groundwork for that. 379 00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:12,120 Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, Marcel, Thank you very much. 380 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:12,439 Speaker 2: For having me. 381 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:19,199 Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You 382 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 1: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage 383 00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 1: at enzdherld dot co dot enz. The Front Page is 384 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:30,840 Speaker 1: produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also 385 00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:35,680 Speaker 1: our sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front 386 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 1: page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and 387 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:43,000 Speaker 1: tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.