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Speaker 1: Now, Brad Olsen, Infometric's principle e commnist is with us

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Speaker 1: this morning because Informetric's latest reports is a little bit

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Speaker 1: worried about the recovery. Brad, what's worrying you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the concern at the moment is that

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Speaker 2: the momentum behind the economic pickup that we keep talking

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Speaker 2: about just seems to not be there sort of as

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Speaker 2: full as we hope. Yes, we're expecting the economy to

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Speaker 2: pick up this year, but again we're just a bit cautious.

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Speaker 2: We said that last year, and I mean you just

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Speaker 2: noted the likes of business confidence yes high, but has

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Speaker 2: pulled back a bit in recent times. You look at

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Speaker 2: the number of job ads in the economy, they were

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Speaker 2: showing a bit of momentum last year, but again not

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Speaker 2: sort of convincing. They dropped a bit in December. Spending

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Speaker 2: activity from households, which you know, as interest rates were down,

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Speaker 2: you'll be expecting households to pick up their spending. Well,

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Speaker 2: it was up in November, but then fell back in December.

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Speaker 2: The big spend up before Christmas. So we're just a

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Speaker 2: little bit worried that looking at the numbers. It's not

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Speaker 2: that we're sort of seeing this full throated sort of

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Speaker 2: growth coming through, and that just sort of sets a

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Speaker 2: little bit of an uneasy tone for the year.

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Speaker 1: Where is that because we are a little burnt by

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Speaker 1: the false storm we had last year.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's certainly part of our worry.

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Speaker 2: And look, as economic forecast as we understand that as well,

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Speaker 2: we were the ones talking about this sort of pickup

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five that didn't really materialize. And I

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Speaker 2: think part of it is that, you know, households have

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Speaker 2: been through so much the last couple of years. They

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Speaker 2: are the ones that will need to drive, you know,

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Speaker 2: the economic recovery. They need to be letching onto those

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Speaker 2: lower interest rates and then starting to spend. But they

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Speaker 2: also need to be a bit more convinced that job

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Speaker 2: opportunities are starting to come through. Otherwise everyone goes into

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Speaker 2: their shell. And of course, with inflation starting to be

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Speaker 2: a little bit more intense than anyone had hoped or expected,

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Speaker 2: it all just sort of creates a set of conditions

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Speaker 2: where again we're still forecasting that things grow, We're still

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Speaker 2: confident that things pick up, but looking at the numbers,

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Speaker 2: we're not sort of as convinced as we might have

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Speaker 2: felt say, a couple of months ago, and it really

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Speaker 2: does sort of suggest that the numbers at the moment

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Speaker 2: are sort of we're lacking a bit of conviction that

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Speaker 2: it's going to continue to come through, and so it

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Speaker 2: is very much a cautious start to the year.

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Speaker 1: What do you need to see, Brad to make you

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Speaker 1: not cautious?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think probably the same as households.

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Speaker 2: It will be some of those labor market indicators who

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Speaker 2: will be wanting to see the likes of job numbers

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Speaker 2: start to push up a bit higher than number of

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Speaker 2: jobs being advertised start to rise as well. And I

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Speaker 2: think again we've got next week some more labor market

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Speaker 2: data about the unemployment rate.

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Speaker 3: We will be looking quite closely at that, just to

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Speaker 3: try and understand.

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Speaker 2: The sort of momentum. We know that businesses themselves, Yes,

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Speaker 2: you've knowned business confidence is high, but I think also

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Speaker 2: you haven't actually seen as much hiring as people might

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Speaker 2: have expected. Job add numbers are up sort of about

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Speaker 2: ten percent from a low of a year ago. Still,

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Speaker 2: though you're seeing three point five times more job applications

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Speaker 2: for every ad than pre pandemic, So people are still

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Speaker 2: a bit cautious about their hiring intentions, and look, if

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Speaker 2: you're out there and going, look, my mortgage rate is lower,

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Speaker 2: but I can't pay mortgage if I don't have a job.

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Speaker 2: So if I'm not confident there's another opportunity out there,

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Speaker 2: I'm still going to act pretty constrained. That's sort of

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Speaker 2: the level of caution we're worried about. That's what If

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Speaker 2: we can turn it around, we'll start to provide a

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Speaker 2: bit more growth.

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Speaker 1: All right, appreciate your time, Brad. Brad at Olson informtric's

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Speaker 1: chief executive and economists with us this morning.

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