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Speaker 1: I went for a walk along cutting a happy road

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Speaker 1: the other night, and I saw something that I had

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Speaker 1: not seen in the longest time. A new restaurant. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I didn't even step inside, but honestly, it felt like

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Speaker 1: a felt like a drink of cold water for a

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Speaker 1: parched man in the desert. When was the last time

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Speaker 1: I saw a new restaurant. It is, of course a rarity,

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Speaker 1: and hardly a sign by itself that the entire economy

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Speaker 1: is ready to take off. The number of new restaurants

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Speaker 1: in that part of town is still comfortably outnumbered by

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Speaker 1: the number of four lease signs sitting woefully in windows.

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Speaker 1: But as the Reserve Bank prepares for tomorrow's call on

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Speaker 1: the ocr two things give me optimism that they're going

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Speaker 1: to be leaning more towards fifty basis points than twenty five.

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Speaker 1: The first number one is that if the economists are right,

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Speaker 1: and I realize that's always a big gift, well, inflation

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Speaker 1: is already back down within the target band one to

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Speaker 1: three and maybe even closer to two percent than we

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Speaker 1: dare to hope. It occurs to me that migration in

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Speaker 1: flows have really significantly slowed in recent months, and that,

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Speaker 1: in turn is reducing the upward pressure on rents, which

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Speaker 1: was one of the stickier parts of the inflation picture

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Speaker 1: over the last few quarters. So the next CPI data,

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Speaker 1: the next consumer price index comes out next week, so

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Speaker 1: we get the OCR before we get inflation data. But

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Speaker 1: if that's the case, and we are within the target band,

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Speaker 1: and especially if we're somewhere closer to two percent on

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Speaker 1: inflation than three percent, so lower than two point five,

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Speaker 1: I reckon there is a pretty decent argument the Reserve

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Speaker 1: Bank should be moving quickly to get us a whole

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Speaker 1: lot closer to a neutral cash rate. The second point

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Speaker 1: that gives me a bit of optimism is timing. So

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Speaker 1: if this were April, I might feel a little bit

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Speaker 1: more meh. But after tomorrow there is only one OCR

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Speaker 1: core before the summer break, and then it is a

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Speaker 1: long wait until February's next decision. It's almost three months,

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Speaker 1: so while waiting to see what comes of the US election,

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Speaker 1: the Reserve Bank might rightly be concerned about being left

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Speaker 1: behind by other central banks around the world that three

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Speaker 1: month break between innings. So the markets say yes to

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Speaker 1: fifty basis points, the banks are saying yes to fifty

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Speaker 1: basis points, is someone refixing his mortgage in three weeks.

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Speaker 1: I say yes, Please, Jack Day. For more from Hither

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Speaker 1: Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to news talks it'd be

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