WEBVTT - As Luxon heads to India - how likely are we to get a FTA? 

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<v Speaker 1>Gilder.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a

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<v Speaker 2>daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. Prime Minister

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<v Speaker 2>Christopher Luxen is heading to India, taking with him one

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<v Speaker 2>of the largest delegations a New Zealand PM has ever

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<v Speaker 2>traveled with, and the fanfare makes sense given we currently

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<v Speaker 2>export seven hundred and eighteen million dollars worth of goods

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<v Speaker 2>to India annually, but we don't have a formal free

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<v Speaker 2>trade agreement with the world's largest population and on track

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<v Speaker 2>to become the world's third largest economy by twenty thirty.

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<v Speaker 2>Starting negotiations on that deal has been a priority for

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<v Speaker 2>Luxen above the other deals he's focused on so far

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<v Speaker 2>this term. Luxeon even promised in the twenty twenty three

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<v Speaker 2>election campaign to finalize a deal within his first term

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<v Speaker 2>of government. But how likely is that? And what would

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<v Speaker 2>a deal actually mean for you? New Zealand. Later on

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<v Speaker 2>the Front Page, but At Shaveler, a chair of the

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<v Speaker 2>India New Zealand Business Council, joins us to delve into

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<v Speaker 2>New Zealand's relationship with India. But first, Newstalks z BE

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<v Speaker 2>political editor Jason Wowles is with us to explain what

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<v Speaker 2>are all these agreements, memorandums and FTAs, What do they

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<v Speaker 2>actually mean? Jason? Why is India such a priority for

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<v Speaker 2>this government.

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<v Speaker 3>Oh, it's just a massive, massive market. I mean you

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<v Speaker 3>just need to look at the sheer size of not

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<v Speaker 3>just the population, but the size of the economy as well,

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<v Speaker 3>and it's only projected to get bigger. New Zealand is

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<v Speaker 3>a small trading nation and the bottom of the world.

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<v Speaker 3>We live and die by trading. India is extremely lucrative,

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<v Speaker 3>but it's extremely difficult to get a deal with and

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<v Speaker 3>the past government, the Labor government, I mean, Chris Luxen

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<v Speaker 3>gives them a lot of flak, but they did try.

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<v Speaker 3>The Key government they did try as well, but it's

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<v Speaker 3>always been one of the hardest markets to actually get

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<v Speaker 3>a trade deal. To get one, you need to be

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<v Speaker 3>on the ground. That's what the Prime Minister has been

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<v Speaker 3>telling us, and so that's exactly why he's going. He's

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<v Speaker 3>bringing some ministers and half of New Zealand's business sector,

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<v Speaker 3>it seems because the delegation is a big one.

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<v Speaker 2>So New Zealand has a lot of trade deals with

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<v Speaker 2>the likes of China, Australia, the UK, the EU, the CPTPP.

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<v Speaker 2>Why is getting a trade deal such a big deal

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<v Speaker 2>for politicians.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think it means they can stamp their mark

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<v Speaker 3>on it, you know. I mean, the last Labor government

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<v Speaker 3>gets a lot of flak from the business community, but

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<v Speaker 3>you can't look past their ability to do a trade deal.

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<v Speaker 3>Naimahuta as Foreign Minister, really wasn't overseas all that much.

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<v Speaker 3>She didn't see that much activity outside New Zealand. Yes

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<v Speaker 3>we have COVID to blame for that, but still even

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<v Speaker 3>before that it was a bit tricky. But you got

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<v Speaker 3>Damian O'Connor who was out there actually on a plane

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<v Speaker 3>as much as he could be to get these deals

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<v Speaker 3>across the line, and they did get the upgraded CPTPP deal.

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<v Speaker 3>Say that three times in a row, idea, and that

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<v Speaker 3>is an important step for New Zealand given the size

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<v Speaker 3>of the Chinese market, and it's what this government will

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<v Speaker 3>continue to do as well. If Chris Luxen is so

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<v Speaker 3>hell bent on growth as he should be as a

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<v Speaker 3>National Party Prime minister. Frankly just a prime minister in general,

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<v Speaker 3>A good way of getting growth is by facilitating outside

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<v Speaker 3>capital into the country and by getting a trade deal

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<v Speaker 3>across the line. By reducing some of those importing and

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<v Speaker 3>exporting tariffs. That's a good way of getting growth.

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<v Speaker 2>We're always hearing about prime ministers signing things when they're abroad, right,

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<v Speaker 2>But they're not really always trade deals, are they.

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<v Speaker 4>No.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, when I was in Vietnam a couple of

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<v Speaker 3>weeks ago, what they signed was a strategic Comprehensive Agreement,

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<v Speaker 3>which sounds like it was worked up in the back

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<v Speaker 3>room of some government department in the bowels of the Beltway,

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<v Speaker 3>but it's actually quite significant because in countries like Vietnam,

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, they're a communist country, and you need to

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<v Speaker 3>work with the government if you're a business, and having

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<v Speaker 3>these sort of deals means that New Zealand was one

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<v Speaker 3>of the preferred partners, and there's only about ten of

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<v Speaker 3>those in the world. So it's not a quote unquote

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<v Speaker 3>free trade agreement because they're not working to lower tariffs.

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<v Speaker 3>But what it is working to do is facilitating a relationship.

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<v Speaker 3>So trading deals and free trade agreements are important, but

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<v Speaker 3>you're right, they're not everything.

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<v Speaker 2>But our free trade agreement's kind of like the pinnacle.

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<v Speaker 2>That's like the top agreement that we can get.

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<v Speaker 3>There are a number of different kinds of trade agreements.

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<v Speaker 3>There's just your stock standard vanilla trade agreement, which is

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<v Speaker 3>country to country. Then you've got something called multilateralism, which

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<v Speaker 3>is a trade deal between a number of different countries.

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<v Speaker 3>For example, the CPTPP is a multilateral deal. That one's

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<v Speaker 3>quite a good one because it involves obviously China. At

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<v Speaker 3>one point we were talking about the United States being

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<v Speaker 3>in there. New Zealand doesn't have a free trade agreement

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<v Speaker 3>with the United States. It's looking like we probably never will,

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<v Speaker 3>especially under this administration. So these multilateral deals make it

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<v Speaker 3>a lot easier for New Zealand to actually work with

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<v Speaker 3>some of these big players, even though they're not directly

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<v Speaker 3>having a free trade agreement with them.

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<v Speaker 5>This is the fastest we have ever negotiated a deal

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<v Speaker 5>in New Zealand, and it is one of the highest quality.

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<v Speaker 5>On entry into force.

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<v Speaker 2>Negotiations with the UAE took just four months.

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<v Speaker 5>This high quality trade agreement will provide New Zealand with

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<v Speaker 5>juty free access for ninety eight point five percent of

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<v Speaker 5>our exports to the UAE, rising to ninety nine percent

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<v Speaker 5>after three years.

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<v Speaker 4>Well think we will gain by partner and our port

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<v Speaker 4>security objective and we'll open door for Investments, Opportunity and

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<v Speaker 4>Tourism logistics on agriculta.

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<v Speaker 2>Has this government signed many trade deals so far? I

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<v Speaker 2>know there was one with the UAE earlier this year.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, there's a number of things that they've signed. So

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<v Speaker 3>they have signed, They've signed that one that you mentioned.

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<v Speaker 3>They'll be looking to get one in India. I don't

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<v Speaker 3>think that there will. In the New Zealand First National

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<v Speaker 3>Coalition Agreement, it just says to prioritize getting a free

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<v Speaker 3>trade agreement with India. It doesn't say to get one,

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<v Speaker 3>which is smart because India is a hard market to crack.

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<v Speaker 3>We have been trying to get on top of that

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<v Speaker 3>dairy issues from their perspective for decades now and haven't

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<v Speaker 3>been able to do it. But yes, in terms of

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<v Speaker 3>the agreements that the governments signed free traded agreements a

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<v Speaker 3>few also those sort of smaller, different but still important

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<v Speaker 3>deals like the one with Vietnam.

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<v Speaker 2>So you reckon Luckson's pretty unlikely to get MODI to

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<v Speaker 2>sign on the dotted line.

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<v Speaker 3>There will be something that comes out of it. I

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<v Speaker 3>think I think it'll be some sort of I mean

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<v Speaker 3>it could be something very limp like we have progressed

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<v Speaker 3>talks to continue to facilitate conversations about maybe getting a

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<v Speaker 3>free trade agreement across the line. But you just can't

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<v Speaker 3>do it in one step. And I think that Chris

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<v Speaker 3>Luxon has been very careful not to say he's going

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<v Speaker 3>over there to sign a deal. If he I would

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<v Speaker 3>be very surprised if he did. In fact, it would

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<v Speaker 3>be a major, major, major win for this government if

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<v Speaker 3>they were to get a free trade agreement with India

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<v Speaker 3>across the line. This quickly in the piece, But what

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<v Speaker 3>this is probably is is the first of many steps.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks for joining us, Jason, no problem at all, India

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<v Speaker 2>New Zealand Business Council chair. But at Shaveler is part

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<v Speaker 2>of the massive delegation going to India with Christopher Laxin.

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<v Speaker 2>He joins US now.

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<v Speaker 1>First off.

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<v Speaker 2>But what are we hoping for when Christopher Laxen goes

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<v Speaker 2>to India?

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, I've I've been very The minimum I'm hoping is

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<v Speaker 1>that we come down with a very strong relationship building

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<v Speaker 1>exercise and we initiate the trade discussions which can lead

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<v Speaker 1>to some kind of agreement or our trade FDA in

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<v Speaker 1>coming years.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's pretty unlikely that he will actually return with

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<v Speaker 2>as signed FTA.

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<v Speaker 1>Hey, oh that really I'll be not hoping for that,

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<v Speaker 1>but we will be signing a lot of mus for sure.

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<v Speaker 2>How important is New Zealand's relationship with India.

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<v Speaker 1>I think we need to build this relationship in multiple

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<v Speaker 1>ways beneficial for US one because India is sitting in

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<v Speaker 1>a very strong position in terms of geological geopolitical positioning. Second,

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<v Speaker 1>we are relying on too much on trade on one country,

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<v Speaker 1>which is China for now. We need a bigger partner

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<v Speaker 1>in a bigger number also. And at the same time,

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<v Speaker 1>if we see for a competitive edge over Australia, we

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<v Speaker 1>need an agreement with India because India can buy a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of things that we are not buying yet from

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<v Speaker 1>New Zealand.

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<v Speaker 2>And New Zealand and India have had a huge historical

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<v Speaker 2>pass together defense connections. For one, our troops fought alongside

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<v Speaker 2>each other during the Gallipoli Campaign in nineteen fifteen and

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<v Speaker 2>again in World War Two. Has our relationship strengthened over

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<v Speaker 2>the decades.

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<v Speaker 1>See, relationships are strong. If you see we talk about

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<v Speaker 1>cricket a lot of time. The first foreign coach for

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<v Speaker 1>India was John Right if I'm not wrong, See the

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<v Speaker 1>relationships are there, but we never thought to make the

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<v Speaker 1>relationship stronger for the trades. We always thought it a

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<v Speaker 1>good diplomatic relation. And nobody thought in a big way

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<v Speaker 1>that News and India can have a multi billion dollar

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<v Speaker 1>trade relationship. It's not only two and a half billion

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<v Speaker 1>dollars three billion dollar, so we didn't put too much

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<v Speaker 1>attention to the detail.

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<v Speaker 2>You can see that the countries set up a joint

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<v Speaker 2>Trade Committee in nineteen eighty three to have discussions about

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<v Speaker 2>a free trade agreement, and I see that a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of work was done from about twenty ten to twenty fifteen,

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<v Speaker 2>ten meetings in total. Why has it taken over forty

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<v Speaker 2>years to make any kind of progress on this?

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<v Speaker 1>I think we always went to India with a transactional relationship.

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<v Speaker 1>We never build a relationship before we start a transaction.

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<v Speaker 1>So if you see a lot of agreements with India

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<v Speaker 1>have done lately or say in last ten years, they

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<v Speaker 1>have come up over the relationship which has been there

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<v Speaker 1>for many years now. Even Australia took forteen years to

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<v Speaker 1>build that relation. So we and again if you see

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<v Speaker 1>in India andis in relationship is on and off? You

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<v Speaker 1>said ten to twenty fifteen, we did a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>rounds that was pretty good. But from twenty sixteen to

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty four or twenty twey three, nothing happened or

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<v Speaker 1>not much happened. So when you start and stop, we

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<v Speaker 1>restart again from zero. And that's a bigger problem.

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<v Speaker 2>Is it? Because both countries rely so much on their

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<v Speaker 2>dairy sector.

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<v Speaker 1>I will say that I think we always projected that

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<v Speaker 1>Using is a dairy destination, but Using is not a

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<v Speaker 1>dairy only destination. And at the same time, India has

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<v Speaker 1>been seen that is only agriculture destination. But if you

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<v Speaker 1>see no, India has done a lot in the last

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<v Speaker 1>ten years. What dairy is or is one part of

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<v Speaker 1>all the discussions, but it is not the only part.

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<v Speaker 1>I will not say that we should consider this as

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<v Speaker 1>a as always an agreement. The dairy and we are

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<v Speaker 1>a dairy destination to be honest, And either did you

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<v Speaker 1>want to call it a dairy destination?

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<v Speaker 4>Two?

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<v Speaker 2>Do you think current tensions with China and the issues

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<v Speaker 2>facing the Indo Pacific are placing pressure on site owning

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<v Speaker 2>a free trade deal with India for New Zealand.

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<v Speaker 1>I think a lot of people are seeing that way.

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<v Speaker 1>But if you even that relationship isn't that that issue

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<v Speaker 1>is not there? Still New Zealand need and a big,

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<v Speaker 1>strong economic partner in the Indo Pacific region apart from

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<v Speaker 1>China or Australia, and India is that big economy which

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<v Speaker 1>is untapped. So if you know the numbers, we are

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<v Speaker 1>forty billion dollar trade worth with China. We are only

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<v Speaker 1>two point seven billion tread worth with India. Now even

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<v Speaker 1>we do double, low, triple, we will still get a benefit.

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<v Speaker 6>This mission is about stepping it up a gear, and

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<v Speaker 6>that's because India really matters to New Zealand. With one

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<v Speaker 6>point four to five billion people, it is the most

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<v Speaker 6>populous nation on Earth and its economy is on track

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<v Speaker 6>to being the third largest in the coming years. But

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<v Speaker 6>despite India's growth and scale, it remains just our twelfth

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<v Speaker 6>largest two way trading partner, accounting for one point five

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<v Speaker 6>percent of our exports. And we need to step it

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<v Speaker 6>up because with four hundred and forty five million people

0:12:06.559 --> 0:12:09.800
<v Speaker 6>in India's middle classes, I think the economic growth opportunities

0:12:09.840 --> 0:12:12.400
<v Speaker 6>obviously speak for themselves, but there is so much more

0:12:12.440 --> 0:12:15.280
<v Speaker 6>to our relationship also than just our economic ties.

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<v Speaker 2>We know that Luxen is going to meet with the

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<v Speaker 2>Indian prime Minister Naranda Mody, a man who's known for

0:12:26.000 --> 0:12:29.360
<v Speaker 2>some bold and controversial decisions, most recently. I'm thinking the

0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:32.880
<v Speaker 2>contentious agriculture reforms in twenty twenty, which was forced to

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<v Speaker 2>drop a year later after those mass protests from farmers.

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<v Speaker 2>How do you think Luxon, as a man and a politician,

0:12:40.240 --> 0:12:43.400
<v Speaker 2>is going to go at negotiating with a man like Mody.

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<v Speaker 1>I think there are a lot of positives. See you

0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:50.040
<v Speaker 1>currently Mody or Indian government. What they're looking is at

0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:52.720
<v Speaker 1>how you can grow India and how you can add

0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:56.880
<v Speaker 1>value to India. And if I understand the experience which

0:12:57.080 --> 0:12:59.800
<v Speaker 1>Prime Minister Luxen have currently working in a corporate sector

0:12:59.840 --> 0:13:02.400
<v Speaker 1>with in the term lever also which is a part

0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:06.800
<v Speaker 1>of Unilever. If you know, if you recall he knows

0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:09.000
<v Speaker 1>bits and pieces, or say, I think a lot of

0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:13.480
<v Speaker 1>things for India which can be useful and if you

0:13:13.679 --> 0:13:17.400
<v Speaker 1>talk India needs help to grow India and if you

0:13:17.480 --> 0:13:19.680
<v Speaker 1>talk that we will be in the right position to

0:13:19.720 --> 0:13:20.480
<v Speaker 1>do a lot.

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<v Speaker 2>Of things right. So this might be an area where

0:13:22.800 --> 0:13:25.480
<v Speaker 2>Luckson's corporate speak might help it great.

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<v Speaker 1>Agreed, So the corporate speak, the understanding of India, the

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<v Speaker 1>like if you can get things done that will be

0:13:32.920 --> 0:13:36.000
<v Speaker 1>helpful with India. New Zealand will get a lot of

0:13:36.040 --> 0:13:39.880
<v Speaker 1>benefit in terms of the relations which we have and

0:13:40.240 --> 0:13:42.480
<v Speaker 1>the amount of activity we have done in last twenty

0:13:42.520 --> 0:13:45.480
<v Speaker 1>four months or say twelve months. Lately there are eleven

0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:48.880
<v Speaker 1>to twelve meetings with ministers that is actually adding value.

0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:52.439
<v Speaker 2>What do you think the best outcome will come from

0:13:52.559 --> 0:13:54.240
<v Speaker 2>Luckson's trip to India.

0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:57.280
<v Speaker 1>See one thing which is very clear. We are taking

0:13:57.320 --> 0:14:01.280
<v Speaker 1>the biggest delegation. We are actually getting the I involved. Also,

0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:04.040
<v Speaker 1>the benefit is that you are showing that we are

0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:06.600
<v Speaker 1>open for business. You're showing that we are here to

0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:10.000
<v Speaker 1>make our relationship were not are transational and the repeating

0:14:10.200 --> 0:14:13.920
<v Speaker 1>that message and joining major events in India like Rice

0:14:14.000 --> 0:14:17.040
<v Speaker 1>and a dialog is something which can show that Yep,

0:14:17.200 --> 0:14:20.720
<v Speaker 1>New Zealand is on a very good position to trade

0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:22.440
<v Speaker 1>with India in a bigger numbers.

0:14:22.800 --> 0:14:24.560
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for joining us brat.

0:14:24.320 --> 0:14:25.480
<v Speaker 1>Great, Thank you very much.

0:14:29.960 --> 0:14:33.040
<v Speaker 2>That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You

0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:36.920
<v Speaker 2>can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage

0:14:36.920 --> 0:14:40.840
<v Speaker 2>at NZ Herald dot co dot MZ. The Front Page

0:14:40.880 --> 0:14:44.400
<v Speaker 2>is produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is

0:14:44.440 --> 0:14:49.240
<v Speaker 2>also our sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the

0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:52.720
<v Speaker 2>front page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts,

0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:57.440
<v Speaker 2>and tune in on Monday for another look behind the headlines.