1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:02,559 Speaker 1: Jamie McKay is with us this evening host of the country, Jamie, 2 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:03,400 Speaker 1: good evening. 3 00:00:04,080 --> 00:00:06,000 Speaker 2: Good evening, Ryan. And just before we get into the 4 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:08,280 Speaker 2: thick of it, just a we footnote for you, not 5 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:11,040 Speaker 2: on Ford in their impairment, but on the well this 6 00:00:11,080 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 2: is sort of a bit of an impairment. Really. It's 7 00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:18,560 Speaker 2: the final Global Dairy Trade Auction. Tonight features market picking 8 00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:21,520 Speaker 2: another drop of a couple of percent or so. My 9 00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:24,479 Speaker 2: man at Jordan, Mike McIntyre tells me. Now, if that 10 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:29,800 Speaker 2: comes to pass, that's nine straight falls, ten being the 11 00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:33,480 Speaker 2: record since we've started the GDT auction. So I hate 12 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:36,199 Speaker 2: to be the bear of bad news, Ryan, but it's 13 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 2: got that feel about it. Nine dollars here we come. 14 00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:41,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, they's certainly heading in that direction, isn't it. Now, 15 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:45,800 Speaker 1: Food and five exports, this is some bright spark. I 16 00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 1: suppose food and fiber exports will reach a record sixty 17 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 1: two billion dollars next year. 18 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's on top of this year's. I mean, 19 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 2: the sixty two billion is for the year end of 20 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:59,320 Speaker 2: June thirty, twenty twenty six, So I guess it's in 21 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:02,880 Speaker 2: the farming season that we're in. It beats last year's 22 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:06,760 Speaker 2: record setting sixty point four billion. And the good news 23 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 2: is Ryan, for the year ended thirtieth of June twenty 24 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:13,479 Speaker 2: twenty seven, we're up to sixty three billion. And if 25 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:16,679 Speaker 2: you want to figure out how important the primary sector 26 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 2: is to our economy, one in every seven people work 27 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 2: in food and fiber and the sector now accounts for 28 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:27,200 Speaker 2: eighty three percent of all New Zealand goods exports, So 29 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 2: it's huge for our economy. We break it down into sectors, 30 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 2: meat and wall Let's face it, it's mainly meat has 31 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 2: been the star of the stable, lifting seven percent to 32 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 2: over thirteen billion. Horticulture off the back of Kiwi fruit 33 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:46,399 Speaker 2: doing really well, lifting five percent to nine point two billion. 34 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 2: Now it's not that long ago, Ryan that horticulture and 35 00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:53,640 Speaker 2: forestry were neck and neck. Forestry did lift two percent, 36 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 2: but it's when I say, languishing at six point three billion. 37 00:01:56,840 --> 00:01:59,440 Speaker 2: That's still a lot of money. But horticulture has really 38 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 2: taken off off the back of the Kiwi fruit and apples, 39 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 2: I think, reaching one billion for the first time. And 40 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 2: of course when it comes to value and volume, it's 41 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:13,639 Speaker 2: all about the dairy export industry only lifted one percent. Obviously, 42 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:16,360 Speaker 2: we've got falling prices to factor in, but it is 43 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:21,359 Speaker 2: worth to our economy of whopping twenty seven point four 44 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 2: billion dollars. So there you go. That was in the 45 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 2: Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries report release. 46 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:32,079 Speaker 1: This morning, Jamie. What's happening with the animal protein industry? 47 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:36,799 Speaker 1: Generally a slowdown being predicted in production growth for twenty. 48 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:40,920 Speaker 2: Six Yeah, yeah, this is the latest Rabobank report and 49 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:44,520 Speaker 2: they always put out wonderful reports. Love reading them, Ryan 50 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 2: shameless Plug for Rabobank the Global Animal Protein Outlook for 51 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:53,240 Speaker 2: twenty twenty six. Interestingly, seafood and poultry will emerge as 52 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 2: the primary drivers of production growth, while pork and beef 53 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:02,680 Speaker 2: are expected to contract, marking the first time in global 54 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 2: land based species a reduction and output for at least 55 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 2: six years. So here in New Zealand, what's the story. 56 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:14,680 Speaker 2: The beefhead countess forecast to rise by about three percent 57 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:17,280 Speaker 2: and twenty twenty six. Look, beef farming is where it's 58 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:20,839 Speaker 2: at at the moment. On the sheep side, even though 59 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 2: you numbers have declined by one point nine percent, the 60 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 2: lambs available for slaughter out of them, as I think 61 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 2: we touched on last week, are still roughly about the same, 62 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:34,840 Speaker 2: So our national u flock is now down to just 63 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:38,680 Speaker 2: over fourteen million sheep. Ryan, you're far too young to 64 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 2: remember in the nineteen eighties when we had over seventy 65 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:45,840 Speaker 2: million sheep. Obviously they weren't all used, but the numbers 66 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 2: that decline has been rapid. Global demand for New Zealand 67 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 2: red meat, and this is the good news, has anticipated 68 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 2: to remain robust in twenty twenty six. And even though 69 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:59,119 Speaker 2: our volumes have softened into the likes of China, were 70 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 2: really really being offset by us getting more lamb exports 71 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:08,120 Speaker 2: into the likes of the EU and the US and 72 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 2: to a lesser extent, the UK, And we are really 73 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 2: being helped in those two European markets by our FTAs. 74 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 2: We just need to convince Donald Trump to drop the 75 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 2: tariffs and give us a free trade agreement and it's 76 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:22,039 Speaker 2: happy days for New Zealand farming. 77 00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:25,680 Speaker 1: Same goes for India. Appreciate that, Jamie. Thank you, Jamie McKay, 78 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 1: host of the Country on News Talks EB. For more 79 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:32,159 Speaker 1: from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to News talks 80 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:36,479 Speaker 1: 'B from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.