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Speaker 1: So investor confidence has slumped back to pandemic levels and

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Speaker 1: ASB survey out this morning shows confidence it's just one

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Speaker 1: percent for quarter two of twenty twenty five. That's the

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Speaker 1: lower since twenty twenty though we're still well above the

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Speaker 1: negative twenty five percent seen. Then, half of investors say

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Speaker 1: they're very worried about global issues hurting returns. ASB Senior

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Speaker 1: wealth economist Chris tinant Brown joins me, Now, thanks for

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Speaker 1: your time, Chris.

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Speaker 2: Oh, good morning, Thanks for having on.

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Speaker 1: So why is confidence so low? What's impacting it?

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Speaker 2: I think there's two or three things going on. One

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Speaker 2: is that offshore uncertainty. Investors are feeling a bit rattled

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Speaker 2: by what they're seeing overseas, but it's important to also

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Speaker 2: note that that hasn't necessarily translated into bad investment returns

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Speaker 2: for people that are invested in global markets. The other

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Speaker 2: things are the housing market I think is surprising many

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Speaker 2: that it hasn't picked up the way you'd expected with

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Speaker 2: all the reductions and mortgage rates that we've seen. And

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Speaker 2: there's a bit of mirroring of the weakness we're seeing

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Speaker 2: in consumer confidence within this investor confidence survey as well,

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Speaker 2: with people just not that confident in the overall economy

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Speaker 2: and outlook.

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Speaker 1: Is confidence different around the country.

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Speaker 2: It is. It's interesting to see that confidence in Auckland

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Speaker 2: is the highest area, whereas the Lower North Island, which

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Speaker 2: of course includes Wellington, is the lowest, even though a

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Speaker 2: lot of the drivers are similar across these areas. But

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Speaker 2: again we see the same thing in consumer confidence. Wellington

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Speaker 2: consumer confidence is weaker than Auckland consumer confidence at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Okay, were they any areas we're confidence did lift?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I think the one thing that's really pleasing is

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Speaker 2: that confidence in managed funds is holding up and likewise,

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Speaker 2: with key we save us. So hopefully, although people are

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Speaker 2: feeling rattled by those global events, they're not chopping and changing,

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Speaker 2: and if they've stayed the course through the first half

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Speaker 2: of the year, they will have seen a recovery from

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Speaker 2: those April jitters, and I think that's helping the mood

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Speaker 2: for investors that are using those products.

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Speaker 1: Chris, how do we do deal with that disconnect that

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Speaker 1: you mentioned there before, whereby you know, we have this

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Speaker 1: lack of confidence and investment in marketing, but actually investments

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Speaker 1: are doing quite well.

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Speaker 2: I think the key thing there is it just highlights

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Speaker 2: the importance of getting advice when you're feeling nervous and

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Speaker 2: sticking with well thought out plans. People are saving for

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Speaker 2: retirement with key we Favor, for example, this won't be

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Speaker 2: the last time that we see a bit of global

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Speaker 2: volatility influencing the mood. But if people stay the course,

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Speaker 2: hopefully they'll be able to achieve their longer term goal.

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Speaker 2: So I think that importance of getting advices is highlighted

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Speaker 2: by the survey.

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Speaker 1: What impact does low investor confidence have on the economy?

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Speaker 2: I think the first places in the housing market at

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Speaker 2: the moment. Housing is very important for key we psyche,

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Speaker 2: So for people that are investing in the property market

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Speaker 2: and they're seeing houses go house prices go sideways, it

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Speaker 2: contributes to this lower level of activity that we're seeing

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Speaker 2: in the housing market. For other areas of the economy,

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Speaker 2: hopefully people just carry on using products like managed funds

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Speaker 2: and key we Savor for their longer term savings goals.

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Speaker 2: So the other area of the economy which is impact

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Speaker 2: I think is the overall picture of these lower interest

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Speaker 2: rates that we've got within the economy.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it's not hugely helpful for the government,

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Speaker 1: isn't it When they're focuses on economic growth and investment.

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Speaker 2: That's that's that's right. I mean, the confidence is so

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Speaker 2: important for activity, particularly when you're looking at consumer confidence

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Speaker 2: and invest in business confidence. For investor confidence, I think

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Speaker 2: when we see it at these sorts of levels, it's

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Speaker 2: just really important for them for individuals and then in

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Speaker 2: turn for the overall economy, for people just to stick

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Speaker 2: with those longer term plans that they've got.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no panicking. Can we predict when we're going to

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Speaker 1: see investor confidence improve?

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Speaker 2: I think it's going to vary from asset class to

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Speaker 2: asset class. If people have got housing as there as

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Speaker 2: their main investment, and that's why they're feeling low at

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Speaker 2: the moment, then we should see monetary policy work. We

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Speaker 2: think the housing market will eventually pick up. It's just

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Speaker 2: taking longer than it would normally expect it times like now,

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Speaker 2: and for things like Keyy, Savor and managed investment funds,

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Speaker 2: I hope that those that those returns just keep on

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Speaker 2: slowly boosting confidence and and and people pick up somewhat

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Speaker 2: from the from the doldrums that we've been in at

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Speaker 2: the moment.

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Speaker 1: In the Slates survey, Chris, thanks so much for your time.

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Speaker 1: That was ASP Senior Wealth economists Chris Tenant. For more

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