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Speaker 1: Together do for see Ellen.

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Speaker 2: The unemployment rate has risen to four point six. It's

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Speaker 2: slightly better than most forecasters had predicted. At four point seven,

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Speaker 2: it's bang in line with the Reserve Banks for forecast.

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Speaker 2: Jared kurz Ki Banks chief economist, Hey, Jared, Hey, right,

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Speaker 2: this is this has hit the young ones particularly hard,

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Speaker 2: as it always does, isn't it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah it has. We've seen a list of unemployment and

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Speaker 1: unfortunately it's the younger people who have been hit first.

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Speaker 2: Wage inflation though still going up. That's a good thing

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Speaker 2: for people, isn't it. Yeah it is.

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Speaker 1: But then if you ask them, you know, are you

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Speaker 1: working enough? Saying no, we want more hours. So the

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Speaker 1: under utilization rate rose. So people are working, but they're

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Speaker 1: just not getting the hours they want. How much longer

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Speaker 1: that's a reflection? Sorry, no, carry on. I was just

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Speaker 1: going to say, and that's a reflection of you know,

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Speaker 1: firms cutting hours rather than heads at the stage.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, we are nowhere near where we're going

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Speaker 2: with the unemployment rate. So how much longer have we

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Speaker 2: got for this thing to kind of play out?

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Speaker 1: Oh? We've got another year. The unemployment rate does lag.

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Speaker 1: What's happening in the economy. Businesses do hold on to

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Speaker 1: workers for as long as they can, So we think

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Speaker 1: the unemployment rate keeps lifting for the rest of this

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Speaker 1: year and into next and it'll end up around five

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Speaker 1: point two five point three percent.

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Speaker 2: What do you think this means for the decision next

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Speaker 2: week on the official cash rate?

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Speaker 1: Look, I recommend this central bank cut rates next week.

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Speaker 1: And I say that because we've seen enough in the

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Speaker 1: data to be confident that inflation's not only going to

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Speaker 1: be below three percent this year, but it'll be back

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Speaker 1: to two percent next year. And when they set policy today,

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Speaker 1: they're actually setting policy for the end of next year.

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Speaker 1: That's how long it takes to feed through. It's cut

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Speaker 1: now for relief next year.

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Speaker 2: Jared, what about the immediate reaction though? I mean at

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Speaker 2: the minute that they can't, people are going to feel

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Speaker 2: freer and start to spend. It might not be massive,

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Speaker 2: but it will change our attitudes. Right, So could it

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Speaker 2: potentially fire up the inflation just.

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Speaker 1: To weave it oh a little bit? And I think

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Speaker 1: that's kind of what we want. The economy has been

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Speaker 1: in recession for nearly two years. I think it is

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Speaker 1: time to try and lift people's heads. I think it

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Speaker 1: is time to try and boost confidence, get people investing,

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Speaker 1: get people looking for growth again. You know, businesses are

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Speaker 1: shell shocked and they keep saying that they're trying to

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Speaker 1: survive until twenty five. And I don't like that mindset.

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Speaker 1: I want people lifting their heads again and looking for growth.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Jared, listen, Thank you very much. Always appreciated. Jared Kirkie,

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Speaker 2: we Banks Chief Economists. For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drave,

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Speaker 2: listen live to news talks he'd be from four pm weekdays,

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Speaker 2: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio