1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,360 Speaker 1: Good news rolls on for our economy. We've just logged 2 00:00:02,680 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 1: our largest monthly merchandise surplus since April of twenty eleven. 3 00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:08,320 Speaker 1: We sold more than we bought by almost a billion dollars. 4 00:00:08,560 --> 00:00:10,239 Speaker 1: We sent seven and a half let's call it seven 5 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 1: point six billion dollars worth of product off sure in March, 6 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:16,240 Speaker 1: which made it the biggest month ever export. New Zealand 7 00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:19,320 Speaker 1: executive director. Josh ten is with us on all of this. Josh, 8 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:20,239 Speaker 1: very good morning to you. 9 00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:21,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, good morning, Mike. 10 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:24,599 Speaker 1: Is there any season algy about this? Is something happening 11 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:26,560 Speaker 1: in March that's gone a bit wonky? 12 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:30,040 Speaker 2: No, Look, I think March has always been a pretty 13 00:00:30,080 --> 00:00:34,720 Speaker 2: strong year, so strong month for exports, so this is 14 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:35,639 Speaker 2: to be expected. 15 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 1: Okay, what about the week dollar? Is that driving it? Price? 16 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:40,800 Speaker 1: Is stronger dollar week or all of those combination of things. 17 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:43,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, there's a few things in terms of why 18 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:47,920 Speaker 2: I think we've had such a strong record month in March. 19 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:51,120 Speaker 2: So definitely the low New Zealand dollar is something that's 20 00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 2: made our commodity exports more impelling. But then also you're 21 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:58,000 Speaker 2: looking at months on months, so that's March twenty five 22 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 2: compared to March twenty four strong global prices for both 23 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:04,360 Speaker 2: milk and beef. But then on top of that, you've 24 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:07,840 Speaker 2: also got record crops in the horticulture sector. The apples 25 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:10,800 Speaker 2: and pears industries recently announced that they've hit a billion 26 00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 2: dollars of revenue for the first time. You've also got 27 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 2: zespri who are only just ramping up, but they've also 28 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 2: talked about another bumper crop going out. 29 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:21,400 Speaker 1: Is this all going to go now that the dollars 30 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 1: back up and the world is going into some sort 31 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 1: of malaise? 32 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 2: Look, I think you know, this positive news all comes 33 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 2: with a bit of an asterisk, and that is obviously 34 00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:33,880 Speaker 2: the trade war that's currently growing between the US and 35 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 2: the major trading partners. I think overwhelmingly, you know, economists 36 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 2: have a pretty dim view of how overseas market's going 37 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 2: to react to rolling tarif announcements. It's already shown up 38 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:47,440 Speaker 2: in the data. The trade war uncertainty has hit US 39 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 2: consumer confidence, which is in the all time lows. Chinese 40 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:54,760 Speaker 2: consumer confidence isn't any better. Of course, also seen this 41 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 2: morning that the IMF has done greater global growth expectations 42 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 2: of the year and also for next year, and also 43 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:08,520 Speaker 2: raises its odds on a US recession. So look, you know, 44 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:13,519 Speaker 2: could this all have significant implications for New Zealand exporters. 45 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 2: It remains to be seen. 46 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 1: Okay, when we talk about the March numbers though, exports 47 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:20,880 Speaker 1: to China up twenty three twenty three percent of massive numbers. 48 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:23,359 Speaker 1: Is that material in the sense has something happened in China? 49 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 1: Or is this just once again a monthly and normally. 50 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:29,960 Speaker 2: Look, I think it goes back to those strong prices 51 00:02:29,960 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 2: for New Zealand dairy, New Zealand meat, and also New 52 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:35,800 Speaker 2: Zealand logs. But there's also reculd crop as I've mentioned, 53 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 2: for our foot grows as well, and I think that's 54 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:38,639 Speaker 2: where those numbers come from. 55 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:40,840 Speaker 1: Okay, and the trade deficit was still running annually a 56 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 1: trade deficit. Do you ever see that ending? Do you 57 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:44,800 Speaker 1: worry about that? Should we worry about that? I worry 58 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 1: about that, but no one else seems to. 59 00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 2: Look, it's a really good point, you know. All of 60 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:51,000 Speaker 2: these really positive numbers are on the back of an 61 00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:54,200 Speaker 2: annual six point one billion dollar trade deficit. But look, 62 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:57,119 Speaker 2: that is down from the previous year's ten billion dollar 63 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:00,960 Speaker 2: trade deficit, and I think from memory the year before 64 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:04,360 Speaker 2: that was about seventeen billion dollars. So look, it doesn't 65 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 2: mean that over the course of the New Zealand is 66 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 2: still importing more goods than it exported, but that continues 67 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:12,880 Speaker 2: to be a downward trend. And that's the good thing here. 68 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:15,359 Speaker 2: That deficit continues scenario each year. 69 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:17,680 Speaker 1: All right, Josh, appreciate your time very much, Josh san 70 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:20,799 Speaker 1: Export New Zealand Executive Director. So for now they are 71 00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 1: very good numbers. For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, 72 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 1: listen live to news talks. It'd be from six am weekdays, 73 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.