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Speaker 1: Now to Pakistan and India. The conflict there has escalated today,

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Speaker 1: hasn't it. Eight people have died this morning in Pakistan

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Speaker 1: after India launched missiles at three regions, including the Pakistan

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Speaker 1: controlled and highly contested area of Kashmir. Now. India's campaign

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Speaker 1: is in response to a deadly terror attack on the

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Speaker 1: Indian side of Kashmir last week, which saw twenty six

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Speaker 1: people killed. Chris Ogden is the director of Global Studies

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Speaker 1: at Auckland University and with US Now, Hey, Chris, hey,

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Speaker 1: that are you worried about this given that both sides

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Speaker 1: have nuclear weapons?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Absolutely, And I think also given that people have

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Speaker 2: died on the Pakistani side, undoubtedly Pakistan will retaliate. If

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Speaker 2: people die on the Indian side, then you're looking at

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Speaker 2: kind of mutual escalation.

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Speaker 1: Do you think, what do you think the most likely

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Speaker 1: outcomers here? Is there going to be restraint or is

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Speaker 1: it going to escalate?

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Speaker 2: So I think both sides need to appease nationalists voices

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Speaker 2: to say that they need to protect their countries. Strangely,

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Speaker 2: even though both sides have nuclear weapons, it might actually

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Speaker 2: enhance the possibility for a limited war. And this happened

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Speaker 2: back in nineteen ninety nine, when both sides attested weapons

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Speaker 2: in nineteen ninety eight. So I think both sides have

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Speaker 2: to show strength. They need to say that they're speaking

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Speaker 2: for their population. So I certainly don't think it's just

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Speaker 2: going to filter away.

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Speaker 1: So what happens next, do you think?

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Speaker 2: I think we'll see what the Pakistani response is. I

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Speaker 2: think they're kind of high up military forces are meeting imminently.

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Speaker 2: I think undoubtedly they will retaliate. I think there's a

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Speaker 2: chance that they'll try to retaliate, not maybe as strongly

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Speaker 2: as India did, in a way to try and maybe

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Speaker 2: pull it back. But again, it depends what they do.

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Speaker 2: And certainly if people die on the Indian side, then

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Speaker 2: there'll be a lot of pressure on the Indian prime

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Speaker 2: minister to retaliate further.

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Speaker 1: So let's say Pakistani exercises restraint and decides it's going

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Speaker 1: to do something very limited or maybe nothing at all.

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Speaker 1: Can it actually though, can restrain the extremists, doesn't have

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Speaker 1: any control there.

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Speaker 2: Well, this is the biggest question about Pakistan, which is

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Speaker 2: who's in control? So is it the government, is it

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Speaker 2: the military? Is it the intelligence services? And quite often

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Speaker 2: the intelligence services in the military have been responsible for

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Speaker 2: funding militants in Kashmir, and there is a very good

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Speaker 2: chance that they did fund the militants who carried out

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Speaker 2: the terrorist attack the other week. So it's very difficult

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Speaker 2: to know exactly who's in control. I would suggest in

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Speaker 2: this scenario it's more than military than directly the government.

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Speaker 1: Interesting. Hey, thank you very much, Chris, I really appreciate this.

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Speaker 1: Chris Ogden, director of Global Studies at Auckland University.

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