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Speaker 1: Bryan Bridge nine, after four news talks, he'd be so investors,

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Speaker 1: you'd be forgiven for complaining about whiplash. After this morning's

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Speaker 1: huge U tune from Donald Trump, markets around the world

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Speaker 1: made huge jumps this after Trump announced a ninety day

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Speaker 1: freeze for all announced tariffs except for China.

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Speaker 2: Well, I thought that people were jumping a little bit

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Speaker 2: out of line.

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Speaker 1: They were getting yippie, you know, they were getting a

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Speaker 1: little bit yippy, a little bit afraid. Scott Shelley is

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Speaker 1: a US market analyst with me now.

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Speaker 2: Hi, Scott, thanks for having me on.

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Speaker 3: Looking forward to it. As you can imagine, pretty busy

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Speaker 3: day today.

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Speaker 2: Tell me what you think forced Trump's hand.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think I think the Treasury Secretary is kind

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Speaker 3: of taken the lead role on this. Scott Paston. I

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Speaker 3: don't know if you know Scott Paston, but he used

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Speaker 3: to work with George Soross and Stanley Drugon Miller with

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Speaker 3: the Quantum fun guys. He's very, very smart. He's a

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Speaker 3: fantastic markets guy. And when he saw that tenyor yields

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Speaker 3: fike this morning, like a lot of us, you know,

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Speaker 3: it was only a couple three days ago that that

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Speaker 3: tenyor yield here was around three eighty five and then

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Speaker 3: spiked close to well. I think the HIE today was

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Speaker 3: four fifty one. And when he saw that, I think

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Speaker 3: then when he'd have yields spiking at the same time

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Speaker 3: a lot of volatility and equities, and a lot of

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Speaker 3: folatility to the downside of equities, he run the risk

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Speaker 3: of breaking something. So I think that there was a

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Speaker 3: little bit of pressure there. A couple of days ago,

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Speaker 3: Best in scott Best and our tergery. Second, they flew

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Speaker 3: down to mar Lago from Washington and rode back in

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Speaker 3: Air Force one with Trump. I think he had his

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Speaker 3: ear for that one, and so I think there were

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Speaker 3: some there were some genuine moves on Trump's behalf that

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Speaker 3: I think we're planned. I think it's fair to say

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Speaker 3: that when he put the ten percent to a Ofstan,

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Speaker 3: but he had much higher rates on some other countries,

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Speaker 3: to have them stand in line to try to do

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Speaker 3: a deal with them while he was still tariffing them

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Speaker 3: is not fair. So I think that that ninety day

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Speaker 3: pauses because of the amount of deals that he's going

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Speaker 3: to have to be cutting in the next ninety days

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Speaker 3: from you know, the reports are seventy five countries want

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Speaker 3: to want to cut a deal with them in some way,

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Speaker 3: so it's going to be hard to get to all

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Speaker 3: those people in a short period of time, so they

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Speaker 3: wouldn't be hurt with tariff. So I think the ninety

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Speaker 3: day pauses so that he can get through the backlog

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Speaker 3: of countries at least they say that they want to

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Speaker 3: do a deal. And I also think that he was

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Speaker 3: pretty masterful and putting China in a corner, So all

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Speaker 3: those things kind of played into it. You don't see

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Speaker 3: a lot of Peter and Navarro, you don't see a

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Speaker 3: lot of Howard lutt next in the Commerce secretary. It's

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Speaker 3: all Scott sat And I think he's doing a pretty

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Speaker 3: good job with the president. And over the last forty

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Speaker 3: eight hours his stock is fined for sure.

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Speaker 1: Obviously the yields go up when the price goes down.

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Speaker 1: Normally when there's chaos in the markets, people flood to

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Speaker 1: the treasuries, right.

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Speaker 2: To the bonds.

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Speaker 1: There's there's talk that because China owns about a third

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Speaker 1: of US government bonds, that they weren't buying and that

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Speaker 1: that might have had some effect in terms of forcing

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Speaker 1: Trump's hand.

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Speaker 2: Do you see that buy that.

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Speaker 3: There was a lot of rumors going around. I mean,

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Speaker 3: you know, hedge fund caught the wrong way, unwinding of

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Speaker 3: the carry trade, China trying to punish Trump, whether they're

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Speaker 3: selling end or not buying it could have been a

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Speaker 3: number of things. But I also think that the yield

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Speaker 3: came in so quickly because there were so many people

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Speaker 3: rushing to save havens that that's how the yield got

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Speaker 3: to three eighty five in the first place. So we

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Speaker 3: only kind of went back to where we were trading

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Speaker 3: any between you say, four fifteen and four thirty five,

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Speaker 3: although the high obviously it was four fifty. But I

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Speaker 3: think that bomb market is bigger than the stock market.

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Speaker 3: It's it's so it's gonna be hard to manipulate it

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Speaker 3: at all. I mean maybe maybe maybe in the short

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Speaker 3: rum a little bit, but again, it's bigger than the

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Speaker 3: stock market, So the bond market's gonna be the bond market,

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Speaker 3: regardless of what people want to abscribe to it. I

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Speaker 3: just don't think that there was anything the farious going

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Speaker 3: on there. I just think it was a culmination.

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Speaker 1: Of things Trump posted on truth social This is a

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Speaker 1: great time to buy. Is that borderline inside of trading?

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Speaker 3: You know what they've been saying that for days though.

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Speaker 3: That's all you know that taking a look at it

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Speaker 3: in the snapshot of time of today, you might be

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Speaker 3: able to come up with something like that. No, they've

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Speaker 3: been saying that for days. I mean, there's a lot

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Speaker 3: of folks that have been on the tape since last

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Speaker 3: Thursday saying this is an amazing, once for a lifetime opportunity.

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Speaker 3: So you could you know, it just so happens that

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Speaker 3: it was it was today that the market rally, and

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Speaker 3: it looks like he might have known something. But again,

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Speaker 3: they've been saying that every day.

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Speaker 2: What do you think happens from here?

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Speaker 1: I mean, ninety days to cut deals with seventy five

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Speaker 1: countries sounds quite ambitious. So does he just keep extending

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Speaker 1: this stay?

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Speaker 3: I think it depends on how those deals go. But

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Speaker 3: I think that, you know, as the news of these

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Speaker 3: settlements come out, you'll get more and more comfortable with

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Speaker 3: the market. I mean, we're not I don't think we're

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Speaker 3: gonna have to go back to what we just went

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Speaker 3: through in ninety days time. If that's where you're getting at.

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Speaker 3: And at the same time, it's going to be interesting

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Speaker 3: to see how China handles the position that they put

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Speaker 3: themselves into, so you know, he's Trump generally has some

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Speaker 3: decent support. I think there was a risk there it

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Speaker 3: went on. As long as people were worried it was

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Speaker 3: going to go on, he was going to start to

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Speaker 3: lose his own coalition, his own Republican support. That might

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Speaker 3: have been happening. There was talks of some of some

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Speaker 3: cracks in that coalition over the last few days in

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Speaker 3: the weekend, but I think I think the way things

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Speaker 3: sit today that you know, if it was all planned

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Speaker 3: and this is what he wanted, he did a pretty

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Speaker 3: good job. And I think and I think that it's

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Speaker 3: also got to be given a little bit of credit

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Speaker 3: to Scott Best and are actually a lot of credit

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Speaker 3: to Scott Betland. I think he was also a big

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Speaker 3: part of this. And I think that tenure yield, combined

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Speaker 3: with the stock market, combined with the seventy five countries,

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Speaker 3: combined with a lot of the other things that I've

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Speaker 3: been playing into everything over the last four or five days,

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Speaker 3: this was a pretty good outcome.

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Speaker 1: All right, Scott will leave it there, Thanks very much

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Speaker 1: for that analysis. That's US market analyst Scott Shelby with US.

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