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Speaker 1: Now, the property market seems to have missed the memo

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Speaker 1: about economic green shoots. New data out from IREA and

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Speaker 1: Z the Real Estate Institute shows a drop in both

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Speaker 1: the house prices and the sales. The house price indexes

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Speaker 1: down zero point seven percent of where it was this

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Speaker 1: time last year. National sales were down five point four

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Speaker 1: percent on last month. Matt Ball is from the Property

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Speaker 1: Investors Federation and with US evening Matt Hey, Heather, Now,

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Speaker 1: is this just January of slow? It's always the season

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Speaker 1: all thing?

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Speaker 2: Is that?

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Speaker 1: What's going on here?

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Speaker 2: Oh? Look, I wouldn't get too fixated on what happens

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Speaker 2: month to month. I think what's more important is the

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Speaker 2: bigger picture. It does look like we're going to have

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Speaker 2: a reasonably flat housing market for a little while. Some

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Speaker 2: people have predicted maybe two percent growth this year. And

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Speaker 2: it's all about the macros. It's supply and demand. Is

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Speaker 2: more supply than a lot of places and less demand. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: that's what drives it.

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Speaker 1: This is the migration data, right, This This feeds back

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Speaker 1: into the number of people. But add to that as well.

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Speaker 1: Do you not think that what is playing a role

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Speaker 1: here is the expectations of an OCR lift.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely? I think that is damping things down a wee bit. Yes,

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Speaker 2: but it's still good buying conditions. Like if you're a

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Speaker 2: first time buyer, now still a pretty good time to

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Speaker 2: get into the market. Also, if you're a property investor,

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Speaker 2: it's never a bad time to buy. If you do

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Speaker 2: your mass, do you make sure the fundamentals are right,

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Speaker 2: you can get some growth out of it and get

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Speaker 2: the good cash load. It's a good time to buy,

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Speaker 2: So you know, I wouldn't be too sad.

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Speaker 1: What about the election? How much of that is causing

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Speaker 1: people to sit back a little bit?

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Speaker 2: Yes, I agree the election would definitely give people pause.

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Speaker 2: It might be a bit early for that effect. Although

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Speaker 2: with a pole so tight though I want to Night's old,

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Speaker 2: I would tight poles, people might be sort of pulling

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Speaker 2: back a little bit. That's probably more going to affect

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Speaker 2: your investors. I'd be worried that Labour's going to come

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Speaker 2: back in and remove them just a actibility again. But

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Speaker 2: I would have thought first time buyers wouldn't be too

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Speaker 2: worried about that.

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Speaker 1: Now, where are you sitting on? I mean, see the

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Speaker 1: addictions are two percent, four percent, five percent growth in

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Speaker 1: the housing market this year. Where do you use it.

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Speaker 2: Ye, I'd be at the lower end of the range.

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Speaker 2: I think more like two percent. There's plenty of supply,

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Speaker 2: particularly in Auckland and Wellington, demand as low, migration as

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Speaker 2: low as you pointed out in Wellington, know that loss

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Speaker 2: of jobs. But then again, if you're in the South Island,

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Speaker 2: christ Church, Otago and Southland are doing pretty well. And

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Speaker 2: I note that the targo in Southland they are actually

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Speaker 2: up above the peak price now, so there are parts

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Speaker 2: of the country that are doing well. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Okay, hey, Matt, thank you very much. I really appreciate

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Speaker 1: your insight. That's Matt Bull, Property Investors Federation Advocacy Manager.

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