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Speaker 1: Let's go check in with the markets now, mil Fanaset Management,

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Speaker 1: Remy Morgan's with us Hi Remy Hi Ryan. So RBNZ

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Speaker 1: obviously holding today is expected. How's the market reacting.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, going into the announcement today, the market was pricing

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Speaker 2: very low odds of a rate card at this meeting,

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Speaker 2: and in the statement it was clear that the RBNZ

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Speaker 2: does still expect to lower the OCR further, which is

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Speaker 2: consistent with what they outlined in May. Now, post the statement,

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Speaker 2: there was actually a bit of volatility in the market

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Speaker 2: with New Zealand dollar swap rates and the currency moving

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Speaker 2: a little higher initially, but these moves they quickly unwound

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Speaker 2: and then they settled sort of roughly where you'd expect,

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Speaker 2: given there were no real surprises.

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Speaker 1: And what is the market expecting from here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So the interest rate market, it's pricing roughly a

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Speaker 2: two out of three chance of a cut in August

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Speaker 2: and at least one full cut by Christmas, and that's

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Speaker 2: not too dissimilar to what it was thinking going into

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Speaker 2: the announcement today. Currently expecting around one and a half

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Speaker 2: to two further cuts from here in total, and that

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Speaker 2: will see the end of the interest rate cutting cycle

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Speaker 2: bottoming out at just under three percent. But whether these

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Speaker 2: market views will change or not will really depend on

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Speaker 2: where the domestic data lands and policy developments offshore.

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Speaker 1: Remy Trump's all over the place on tariffs at the moment,

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Speaker 1: but has deadline self imposed deadline of night July technically

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Speaker 1: expires overnight tonight our time. How market's looking, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: So you'll recall back in April, following the initial announcement,

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Speaker 2: we saw global indices like the S and P five

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Speaker 2: hundred dropped significantly, but over the last ninety days we've

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Speaker 2: seen a lot of recovery and new highs reached. Now

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Speaker 2: already this week we've seen Trump releasing some of his

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Speaker 2: tariff plans, but with a first of August implementation, and

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Speaker 2: we've seen global equities edge down a little on sentiment,

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Speaker 2: but only very slightly. And maybe one area to call

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Speaker 2: out specifically is US pharmaceutical stocks. So they did pap

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Speaker 2: back on some prior gains, and that was because there

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Speaker 2: was some news overnight that they could be facing up

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Speaker 2: to two hundred percent tariffs on their products manufactured outside

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Speaker 2: of the US, But it wasn't a major negative reaction,

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Speaker 2: and that's likely because those specific tariffs would have quite

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Speaker 2: some time before they would potentially be implemented, so that

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Speaker 2: I think things could still be a bit choppy, but

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Speaker 2: global equity markets have held up reasonably well so far

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Speaker 2: amongst all of the noise.

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Speaker 1: I certainly have Remy appreciate that update. Thank you very much,

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Speaker 1: Remy Morgan, Milford Asset Management. For more from Hither Duplessy

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Speaker 1: Alan Drive, listen live to news talks. It'd be from

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