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Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from news talks it B.

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Speaker 1: Follow this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.

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Speaker 1: It's time for all the attitude, all the opinion, all

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Speaker 1: the information, all the debates of the still now the

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Speaker 1: Leyton Smith podcast powered by news talks it B.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to podcast to two ninety eight for August twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty five, going beck a few years to December

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Speaker 2: the second, twenty twenty we interviewed an expat, Kiwi, a

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Speaker 2: professor emeritus in engineering at Cambridge University. His full qualifications

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Speaker 2: will follow in a moment. The subject of the interview

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Speaker 2: was climate mitigation and why New Zealand is making a

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Speaker 2: big mistake. If you haven't heard this interview before, there

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Speaker 2: is a great deal to learn in the following of

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Speaker 2: forty five minutes or so, and you'll likely be astounded

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Speaker 2: that New Zealand administrators, be they elected or appointed, reject

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Speaker 2: his offers to them. Oh he did a few years ago,

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Speaker 2: very briefly. Nobody took much notice, if any, but since

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Speaker 2: then no not interested. His scientific knowledge outweighs all of

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Speaker 2: them in my humble opinion, and his opinions are as

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Speaker 2: relevant today, if not more so than they were in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty when we conducted this interview. Now in the

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Speaker 2: original release of podcast ninety three, I covered off a

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Speaker 2: few instances of matters that were relevant at the time.

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Speaker 2: I thought it would be interesting to leave them in

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Speaker 2: and you can make judgments on well, what's happened from

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Speaker 2: then until now as you please. But following that, of

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Speaker 2: course the interview with Professor Michael Kelly. There are essential

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Speaker 2: fat nutrients that we need in our diet as the

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Speaker 2: body can't manufacture them. These are Omega three and Omega

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Speaker 2: six fatty acids. Equisine is a combination of fish oil

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Speaker 2: and virgin evening primrose oil, a formula that provides an

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Speaker 2: excellent source of Omega three and Omega six fatty acids

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Speaker 2: in their naturally existing ratios. The Omega six from evening

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Speaker 2: primrose oil assists the Omega three fish oil to be

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Speaker 2: more effective. Equisine is a high quality fish oil supplement

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Speaker 2: enriched with evening primrose oil that works synergistically for comprehensive

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Speaker 2: health support. Source from the deep sea sardines Anchovisa magril

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Speaker 2: provide essential Amiga three fatty acids in their purest form

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Speaker 2: without any internal organs. Or toxins. Every batch is tested

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Speaker 2: for its purity before it's allowed to be sold. Equisine

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Speaker 2: supports cells to be flexible, so important to support healthy

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Speaker 2: blood flow and overall cardiovascular health. Equisine can support mood,

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Speaker 2: balance and mental clarity and focus in children, all the

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Speaker 2: way to supporting stiff joints, mental focus, brain health and

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Speaker 2: healthy eyes as we get older. ECAs in as a

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Speaker 2: premium high grade fish and evening primrose oil to be

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Speaker 2: taken in addition to a healthy diet and is only

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Speaker 2: available from pharmacies and health stores. Always read the label

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Speaker 2: and users directed and if symptoms persist, seeing your healthcare professional.

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Speaker 2: Farmer Broker Auckland Layton Smith, Emeritus Professor of Engineering, University

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Speaker 2: of Cambridge is the simple and short introduction to Michael Kelly,

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Speaker 2: but it short changes his achievements. Professor Kelly studied mathematics

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Speaker 2: and physics to Master of Science level at Victoria University

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Speaker 2: in Wellington and completed his PhD in Solid state physics

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Speaker 2: at Cambridge in nineteen seventy four. He is a Fellow

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Speaker 2: of the Royal Society in London, the Royal Academy of

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Speaker 2: Engineering and the Royal Academy of Engineering in New Zealand.

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Speaker 2: He's a Fellow of the Institute of Physics, Fellow of

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Speaker 2: the Institution of Engineering and Technology, and a Senior Member

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Speaker 2: of the Institute of Electronic and Electrical Engineering. In the USA,

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Speaker 2: He's been awarded prizes for his work from the Institute

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Speaker 2: of Physics, the Royal Academy of Engineering, and the Royal Society.

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Speaker 2: But the achievement that he had no input into is

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Speaker 2: that he is in New Zealander. Roversa. I enjoyed the

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Speaker 2: last conversation we had a fewsback, I think twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 2: Welcome back, Thank you very much. Now link for me.

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Speaker 2: Would you the connection between engineering, because most people would

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Speaker 2: think that engineering has nothing to do with matters climate

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Speaker 2: and your status as far as climate's concerned.

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Speaker 3: Well, let me just point out right at the start,

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Speaker 3: because I've been branded as a climate change to know

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Speaker 3: and I want to nail that absolute once and for all.

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Speaker 3: It is the case that climate has always been changing.

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Speaker 3: The geologist plenty of records that show us that the

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Speaker 3: climate has changed, and it's changed in my life and

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Speaker 3: listening to my parents and grandparents have changed during their life.

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Speaker 3: So there's no question this climate is changing. The question

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Speaker 3: that remains is whether the mainkind's contribution, and there is

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Speaker 3: definitely a mankind contribution, is inevitably or even most likely

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Speaker 3: going to lead to major catastrophe in our lifetime. Now,

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Speaker 3: I contrast with the fact that it might cause catastrophe

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Speaker 3: in two hundred years. But if you can imagine people

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Speaker 3: standing on the banks of Wellington Harbor in eighteen hundred saying,

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Speaker 3: perhaps we oughtn't come here because in the next two

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Speaker 3: hundred years there'll be some major earthquakes. So I want

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Speaker 3: to be clear about the fact that where the engineering

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Speaker 3: comes into it is that everybody who's concerned about climate

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Speaker 3: change wants to stop it. And I'll come on later

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Speaker 3: to the fact that we don't do enough of talking

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Speaker 3: about adapting to it. But when you come to stop

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Speaker 3: it with phrases like a net zero carbon emission's economy

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Speaker 3: for the world in twenty fifty, this is a phrase

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Speaker 3: which slips off the tongue and warms the heart of

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Speaker 3: individuals sitting around contemplating the future. But when it is

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Speaker 3: then cascaded down into a set of finite, complex and

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Speaker 3: very large engineering projects that would actually deliver as a

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Speaker 3: result of those programs and projects being completed, would deliver

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Speaker 3: the net zero target. Then you start to see some

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Speaker 3: serious problems and you have to ask a lot of

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Speaker 3: serious questions about value for money, opportunity costs, and a

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Speaker 3: whole series of other things. So the basic engineering is

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Speaker 3: when we decide we're going to do something about it,

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Speaker 3: what are we going to do? And that's where the

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Speaker 3: engineering comes in.

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Speaker 2: Very good. You mentioned twenty fifty. The New Zealand government

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Speaker 2: appears to want to move it, plans to move it

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Speaker 2: to twenty. Now the suggestion has been made to me

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Speaker 2: that they are totally demented, and that was made by

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Speaker 2: a man of some qualification. Would you agree with that?

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Speaker 3: Well, I'm not sure about it. I'd use the word tomentum,

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Speaker 3: but I think grossly mistaken would be still an accurate description.

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Speaker 3: And I'll tell you why. If you think of the

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Speaker 3: last ten years in Auckland, you've been talking about trying

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Speaker 3: to build a light railway from the center of town

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Speaker 3: to the airport, what you'd have to do for net

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Speaker 3: zero twenty thirty. There's a project which is about one

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Speaker 3: hundred times more complicated and bigger than the light railway.

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Speaker 3: I haven't done the exact calculations, but that's the kind

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Speaker 3: of problem, and nobody has actually given any thought to

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Speaker 3: who's going to pay, who's going to do the work,

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Speaker 3: et cetera, et cetera.

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Speaker 2: I think that those are irrelevant questions as far as

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Speaker 2: the administration goes.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's suidly true that in that case I would

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Speaker 3: have to claim that they're insincere. I mean, if we

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Speaker 3: really you know, the Second World War, people said we

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Speaker 3: are going to fight the invasion from We're going to

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Speaker 3: stop an invasion from Germany and stop it all, and

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Speaker 3: they meant it. Now, if they say we're going to

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Speaker 3: have a twenty to fifty target or thirty tiger, and

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Speaker 3: in their heart of hearts they don't really mean it, well,

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Speaker 3: then that's a new phase of public discourse for which

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Speaker 3: not enough people are ready. I want to just give

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Speaker 3: you one example. Just I've got one hundred, but here's

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Speaker 3: just one. All your houses have a sixty amp fuse

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Speaker 3: in them, so that is when the mains come in,

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Speaker 3: the first thing they see is a sixty amp fuse. Now,

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Speaker 3: if we can have an all electric Britain PSIA, because

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Speaker 3: I've spent a lot of time working in the UK,

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Speaker 3: all electric New Zealand, we're going to have to electrify

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Speaker 3: both heat and transport. And so we think of our

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Speaker 3: house having a fast charger and electric shower. Well, an

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Speaker 3: electric chower draws forty apps, and remember the main fuse

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Speaker 3: bock is sixty apps and a fast charger draws thirty

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Speaker 3: three amps, a more moderate one seven to ten apps.

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Speaker 3: It's very quickly the case that you will not be.

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Speaker 3: In fact, a study that's done in the United Kingdom

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Speaker 3: says that a modern house, a larger shouse, will have

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Speaker 3: something like a two hundred amp load on it when

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Speaker 3: many things are going. And so the whole idea that

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Speaker 3: we're going to get to a net zero target of

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Speaker 3: twenty thirty and living something like what we're going to do,

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Speaker 3: it's just going to be impossible in terms of electrifying

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Speaker 3: heat and transport because nobody has talked about rewiring the

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Speaker 3: whole of the distribution services. Because not only will you

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Speaker 3: have to rewire the house, but from the house to

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Speaker 3: the substation. The substation will be too small, and the

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Speaker 3: transform will have to be upgrade, and of course you'll

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Speaker 3: need a grid which is two or three times bigger

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Speaker 3: than we have at the moment. And if you think

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Speaker 3: we're going to double the amount of electricity we're going

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Speaker 3: to have in ten years time. I think you're dreaming.

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Speaker 2: Let's move the date back to I think what written

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Speaker 2: is still aiming for, and that is twenty fifty. Does

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Speaker 2: the same rational apply.

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Speaker 3: Yes, it's actually even worse there. For example, in the

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Speaker 3: United Kingdom we use far more heat heating houses than

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Speaker 3: we do heating houses in New Zealand. And the scale

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Speaker 3: of the problem, what's even worse than the UK is

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Speaker 3: that the largest dam that could be used for energy

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Speaker 3: storage has enough energy if you fill the dam and

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Speaker 3: whales dinner Wig and whales. If you fill it, fill

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Speaker 3: it and then empty it by charging cars, you can

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Speaker 3: chargeer point six percent of all small cars in England.

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Speaker 3: I'm not talking about large range rovers or trucks or vans,

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Speaker 3: so you know that's one in about one hundred and

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Speaker 3: fifty cars can be charged. So the scale of the

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Speaker 3: infrastructure needed to be built to be able to run

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Speaker 3: even a quarter of the car fleet. Now, of course,

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Speaker 3: if the people concerned, I've got a more dramatic and

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Speaker 3: draconian future for us, namely that we're going to live

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Speaker 3: much more modestly and we will move only one tenth

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Speaker 3: amount of distance in a year than we do at

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Speaker 3: the moment, and we need only vegetables from local regions

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Speaker 3: and that which can be stored from one season to

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Speaker 3: the next, then that's a different future. We could actually

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Speaker 3: live a very very modest lifestyle. That is, of course

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Speaker 3: what has lived in many poorer parts of the world today.

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Speaker 3: But I don't think that that's part of the deal

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Speaker 3: that we're being offered.

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Speaker 2: Well, there's a quote that I've stole from a comedy

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Speaker 2: show once, many many decades ago, in fact, and I've

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Speaker 2: used it ever since, but I haven't brought it out

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Speaker 2: in a while. So let me exercise it and suggest

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Speaker 2: that there appears to be certainly a strong push from

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Speaker 2: a sizeable quarter. They have us all living in caves

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Speaker 2: and scrubbing ourselves in the creek with a rock, would you.

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Speaker 3: Well, the point is that's not an offer at the moment.

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Speaker 3: I mean, that's not in the public discourse. I haven't

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Speaker 3: heard anybody or referred to anybody in Parliament to get

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Speaker 3: up and say that. So I'm just assuming that people

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Speaker 3: are being honest with us and that they want to

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Speaker 3: get that when they say they want a zero target

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Speaker 3: to be met by twenty fifty that they're honest about it,

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Speaker 3: and that they will will the means. Of course, I

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Speaker 3: don't know. I haven't calculated yet how many engineers will

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Speaker 3: be needed.

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Speaker 4: But I've just done.

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Speaker 3: Some sums for the first three big projects, which is

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Speaker 3: to electrify heat, to electrify ground transportation, and to provide

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Speaker 3: the extra electricity needed for the UK, and I quickly

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Speaker 3: come to a sum. And I haven't done all the

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Speaker 3: sums yet, but I'm up to nearly one hundred thousand

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Speaker 3: dollars per person between now and twenty thirty. Now. One

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Speaker 3: person to me said the other day that three thousand

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Speaker 3: dollars per person a year, it's not a lot if

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Speaker 3: you put it along with other things that we spend

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Speaker 3: money on, and that may indeed be the case. But

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Speaker 3: what I would want to do is to have the willpower.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's just not resources. I mean, you couldn't give,

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Speaker 3: for example, all this money to accountants or lawyers and

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Speaker 3: say build me a new power station or build me

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Speaker 3: a new set of lines, so that do we have

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Speaker 3: enough engineers? And of course it's no point trying to

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Speaker 3: bring in excess engineers from everybody everywhere else in the world,

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Speaker 3: because everybody else in the world is going to be

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Speaker 3: facing the same problem. I have a graph which shows

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Speaker 3: the way that carbon emissions have been exoribly grown since

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Speaker 3: eighteen eighty and we have to turn them off about

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Speaker 3: six times as fast in the next thirty years as

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Speaker 3: we accreted them. And even in the last twenty years

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Speaker 3: since we've been talking about doing this, the carbon emissions

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Speaker 3: in the world have inexorably been going up. The point

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Speaker 3: at stake is that there is one third of the

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Speaker 3: world's population well more than that, about three billion people

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Speaker 3: in Africa, South Asia and India, and some extent but

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Speaker 3: not less so now China, who are still working hard

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Speaker 3: to aspire towards something that I would describe as a

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Speaker 3: European style of living. I don't mean a luxurious style

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Speaker 3: as you get for some people in the United States,

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Speaker 3: but something where people can afford to have their own

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Speaker 3: personal means of transport and go on regular holidays and

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Speaker 3: eat food from around the world at the time of

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Speaker 3: their choosing. That is an ambition which can be met

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Speaker 3: provided there is a lot more energy per person available

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Speaker 3: to these people in the world. The trends over the

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Speaker 3: last twenty years are set to continue for at least

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Speaker 3: the next twenty five years, as the world population gradually

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Speaker 3: comes out of grinding poverty towards a middle class existence.

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Speaker 3: And just as we used had a forty percent increase

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Speaker 3: in fossil fuel use between nineteen ninety five and twenty fifteen,

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Speaker 3: were on scale for another forty percent increase between twenty

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Speaker 3: fifteen and twenty thirty five, and the absence of the

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Speaker 3: middle class, at the absence of the poor will take

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Speaker 3: till nearer twenty fifty to achieve. So while there's this

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Speaker 3: large increase in stent of living be aspired to by

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Speaker 3: many people, the carbon emissions are going to go up.

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Speaker 3: And you know, thirty million, thirty three billion people the

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Speaker 3: last time I calculated, which was about five hundred times

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Speaker 3: the population of New Zealand. So we have five hundred

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Speaker 3: times as many people going the other way in terms

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Speaker 3: of their use of energy and carbon emissions than we're going.

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Speaker 2: Let me get back to the administration of of New Zealand,

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Speaker 2: but not just New Zealand, the various administrations around the world.

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Speaker 2: You in a presentation that you made last year, energy

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Speaker 2: utopia is an engineering reality. You quoted three US presidents,

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Speaker 2: Yes nineteen sixty one, Dwight Eisenhower said he was the

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Speaker 2: first in holding scientific research and discovery in respect as

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Speaker 2: we should. We must also be alert to the equal

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Speaker 2: and opposite danger that public policy could become the captive

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Speaker 2: of a scientific technological elite. Have we reached that put yet?

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Speaker 3: I think in this particular case we have because at

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Speaker 3: the moment we've got that Parliament in the United Kingdom

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Speaker 3: and now in New Zealand delegating responsibility to come up

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Speaker 3: with the ideas for this to a Climate Change Committee,

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Speaker 3: which in the United Kingdom I know has one materials

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Speaker 3: engineer on it, no civil engineers or anybody who's got

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Speaker 3: any personal experience in scoping multi billion pound projects. So

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Speaker 3: these people can sit there and say it would be

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Speaker 3: nice to have this, so let's recommend it without any

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Speaker 3: of the background study, particularly the critical study of the

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Speaker 3: resources needed, the costs involved, how the finances will be provided,

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Speaker 3: et cetera, et cetera. And I think it's much the

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Speaker 3: same in this country. In fact, I've got a line

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Speaker 3: out to the Climate Change Committee here to make sure

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Speaker 3: that everything they say that requires engineering is grounded in engineering. Reality.

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Speaker 3: Engineering isn't everything. And I want to be very clear

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Speaker 3: about that we can all choose by our own selves

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Speaker 3: to live a more modest lifestyle, that is, to travel less,

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Speaker 3: to turn the heating down, to resume what we used

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Speaker 3: to do when I was a child and Tarnakin and

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Speaker 3: that's where a pullover inside most of the time for

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Speaker 3: half of the year when it was cold enough to

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Speaker 3: warrant it. But that of course has now been largely

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Speaker 3: abandoned because of central heating and other forms of energy

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Speaker 3: use in side houses.

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Speaker 2: A little later in that presentation, you said much of

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Speaker 2: what is proposed by way of climate change mitigation is

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Speaker 2: simply pie in the sky. If it's pie in the sky,

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Speaker 2: does it mean we're wasting our time in the first place,

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Speaker 2: or that the governments the government is no.

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Speaker 3: Think The thing I would say is the following that

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Speaker 3: we've been talking about all this but no action at scale.

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Speaker 3: So just over ten years ago, when I was a

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Speaker 3: scientific advisor, the Climate Change Act in the United Kingdom

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Speaker 3: being signed in and I pointed out to all the

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Speaker 3: people in the department that I worked in, which was responsible,

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Speaker 3: among other things for communities, but also the buildings they

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Speaker 3: lived in and the condition of the building. I pointed

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Speaker 3: out that forty five percent of all the emissions used

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Speaker 3: in the United Kingdom come from heating, air and water

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Speaker 3: and buildings, and one of the things we're going to

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Speaker 3: have to do is do a massive retrofit of all

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Speaker 3: the buildings to make them more energy efficient. In those days,

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Speaker 3: it was in order to reach an eighty percent reduction

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Speaker 3: of carbon emissions, let alone one hundred percent in terms

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Speaker 3: of one hundred percent net as in the net zero.

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Speaker 3: And we discussed it all and at that time my

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Speaker 3: advice and a minister set aside seventeen million pounds so

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Speaker 3: that over one hundred buildings, smaller homes in the social

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Speaker 3: housing sector were retrofitted, just to see what would be required. Now,

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Speaker 3: these were all one off projects. I mean, if you

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Speaker 3: were going to do a national retrofit program, you'd have

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Speaker 3: a whole supply chain, you'd have the Yellow Pages equivalent

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Speaker 3: of the whole industry providing everything. But these projects in

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Speaker 3: the United Kingdom there were about fortieth in which spent

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Speaker 3: an average of forty five thousand pounds sorry ninety five,

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Speaker 3: let me get it right, ninety five thousand pounds aiming

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Speaker 3: to get and eighty percent reduction in carbon emissions, but

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Speaker 3: only got on average sixty percent. Three out of forty

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Speaker 3: five got up to eighty percent. Three out of the

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Speaker 3: forty five didn't even get to thirty percent. So when

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Speaker 3: you take those numbers and you scale them up not

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Speaker 3: for an eighty percent reduction, but one hundred percent.

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Speaker 4: You get to think it very quickly.

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Speaker 3: Of two trillion pounds, now you don't have to spend

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Speaker 3: all of that two trillium, provided you can decarbonize a

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Speaker 3: lot of the energy somewhere else. Now in this country,

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Speaker 3: in New Zealand, you have a lot of hydropower, which

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Speaker 3: is a great benefit that equipment of that comes from

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Speaker 3: coal and natural gas and nuclear power in Britain. Of course,

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Speaker 3: nuclear power for most of the civilized world is probably

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Speaker 3: the way forward because it's the only low carbon emission

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Speaker 3: form of energy that is available on demand, as opposed

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Speaker 3: to when the wind's blowing or sun is shining. So

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Speaker 3: coming back to the issue of retrofitting houses, this would

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Speaker 3: have been a program which if we'd started ten years ago,

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Speaker 3: we're just spend five hundred pounds already doing the whole project,

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Speaker 3: and we've probably spent less than one billion. And so

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Speaker 3: the issue is that people talk about things but don't

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Speaker 3: do it, and there's no incentives and when you look

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Speaker 3: at the payback in terms of saved energy bills at

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Speaker 3: seventy five years typically, So why would anybody invest their

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Speaker 3: own money in order to get something which will only

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Speaker 3: pay off on the time of their grandchildren. Now at

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Speaker 3: the moment, the only way to actually achieve that in

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Speaker 3: England will be a direct government fee.

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Speaker 2: It let me go back to I was going to

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Speaker 2: mention point two a few moments ago, and I don't

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Speaker 2: want to let it go because it's important and I'm

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Speaker 2: tempted to say, as you see it or read it,

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Speaker 2: does it tell you that we need to do something

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Speaker 2: on this planet?

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Speaker 4: Well?

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Speaker 3: I think so, but not so Let's think not only

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Speaker 3: about climate change. There's a lot of other things that

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Speaker 3: are getting it attraction now, and that's the use of

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Speaker 3: precious resources. And then what we do at end of life.

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Speaker 3: You know the amount of waste plastic that's ending up

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Speaker 3: in the oceans, you know, as it can used to

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Speaker 3: walk them down the beach in New Plymouth, and I'd

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Speaker 3: be really happy if I found a bit of fishing

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Speaker 3: line that had been washed up, because that was another

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Speaker 3: real I didn't have to buy. But when you go down, down,

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Speaker 3: and see so much jump there, which is going to

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Speaker 3: take a long time. There is a case to be

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Speaker 3: made for living more at ease with the planet. I'm

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Speaker 3: in the last long and last analysis. I'm actually optimistic

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Speaker 3: because the world population has been changing since nineteen seventy

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Speaker 3: and everywhere in the world where there's universal primary education

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Speaker 3: and more people living in towns and in cities, the

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Speaker 3: indigenous absolute population is in decline. And just over one

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Speaker 3: hundred years time the population is going to be seven

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Speaker 3: billion again, but it's going to be going down from

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Speaker 3: nine billion at the rate of which has been going

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Speaker 3: up now. And so I always say, somewhat tongue in

387
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Speaker 3: cheek that if there is going to be sea level

388
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Speaker 3: rise on I mean, it's quite clear the sea level

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Speaker 3: is going to rise, has been rising steadily for one

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Speaker 3: hundred and fifty years, and mankind has probably made a

391
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Speaker 3: bit of a contribution, but not a lot. Now, if

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Speaker 3: that sea level rise continues, there are going to be

393
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Speaker 3: billions of empty houses available on higher ground from decreased population.

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Speaker 3: The population of Italy is predicted, on the present scale

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Speaker 3: of the fertility of native Italian women, to shrink from

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Speaker 3: something like its present population to not much more the

397
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Speaker 3: population of Rome by twenty one hundred, so it's only

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Speaker 3: the certain parts of the world where the population is

399
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Speaker 3: still increasing. But even there, in places like Bangladesh and Lesotho,

400
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Speaker 3: the two places I did a study of the actual

401
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Speaker 3: birth rate per family has already dropped from five where

402
00:24:00,093 --> 00:24:02,333
Speaker 3: it used to be twenty or thirty years ago, to

403
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Speaker 3: two and a half. And the figure you need is

404
00:24:04,773 --> 00:24:09,533
Speaker 3: two point one. If the average family, the number of

405
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Speaker 3: children per fecund woman drops below two point one in

406
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Speaker 3: the population in the population will decline, and it's heading

407
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Speaker 3: in almost all parts of the world, not quickly enough

408
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Speaker 3: in some cases, but it's already with cass and Europe, Austrodasia, Japan,

409
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Speaker 3: and the United States that the population isn't decline in

410
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Speaker 3: Europe and Europe.

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Speaker 2: Back to back to Italy, my materially my favorite country

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Speaker 2: in the world, my favorite culture. With the with the

413
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Speaker 2: population shrinking to the size of Rome, basically that leaves

414
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Speaker 2: a lot of spare space, which means that there has

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Speaker 2: to be massive immigration into into Italy, more so more

416
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Speaker 2: so than now wanted or unwanted, legal or otherwise, simply

417
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Speaker 2: because the space is there and it will be filled.

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Speaker 3: Yes, well, there's a slightly different cut. I mean, the

419
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Speaker 3: thing about immigration already now in Germany was that Missus

420
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Speaker 3: Merkel was vilified for opening the doors to one million

421
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Speaker 3: people now, but when you actually look at whether I'm

422
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Speaker 3: all employed, they are doing the jobs a lot of

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Speaker 3: Germans don't want to do. If you look at the

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Speaker 3: old people's homes and who's staffing them and who start,

425
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Speaker 3: the amount of people in hospitals and various other kinds

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Speaker 3: of caring communities, the immigrant population is overrepresented. So it

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Speaker 3: is one of those things that is a two edged sword.

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Speaker 2: I'm still I'm still not quite satisfied with where we

429
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Speaker 2: left your view of what of whether we need to

430
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Speaker 2: do anything or not. I'm certainly not going to debate

431
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Speaker 2: with you, argue with you over the line that you took.

432
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Speaker 2: But does the science tell you that we need to

433
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Speaker 2: do something about CO two?

434
00:25:55,333 --> 00:26:01,133
Speaker 3: Well, personally, I don't. It's not a compelling story. Let's

435
00:26:01,293 --> 00:26:03,893
Speaker 3: put it this way. There are people who feel that

436
00:26:04,453 --> 00:26:06,373
Speaker 3: just I mean, the sort of thing that's been going

437
00:26:06,373 --> 00:26:08,773
Speaker 3: on for years, and it was started fifty year years ago,

438
00:26:08,773 --> 00:26:11,373
Speaker 3: that we're going to run out of food, and yet

439
00:26:11,533 --> 00:26:14,373
Speaker 3: the smartness of mankind, you know, just as I was

440
00:26:14,373 --> 00:26:19,653
Speaker 3: saying that was happening. Norman Balloug, the Norwegian scientists working

441
00:26:19,653 --> 00:26:23,293
Speaker 3: in the States, prompted a green revolution, and there's far

442
00:26:23,373 --> 00:26:25,773
Speaker 3: less hunger as a fraction of the world's population now

443
00:26:26,013 --> 00:26:28,213
Speaker 3: than there's ever been. And this year we're headed for

444
00:26:28,253 --> 00:26:31,373
Speaker 3: a record grain harvest. So when everybody tells me that

445
00:26:31,413 --> 00:26:33,733
Speaker 3: it's all going to go to custard, I want them

446
00:26:33,773 --> 00:26:37,453
Speaker 3: to tell me now the year in which the crossover

447
00:26:37,493 --> 00:26:39,893
Speaker 3: is going to happen. That is that the destruction because

448
00:26:39,893 --> 00:26:45,333
Speaker 3: of climate change is going to exceed the gain and productivity.

449
00:26:45,613 --> 00:26:47,773
Speaker 3: It is the case in terms of cereals. I think

450
00:26:47,813 --> 00:26:51,053
Speaker 3: that the largest land area ever used was about twenty

451
00:26:51,133 --> 00:26:55,533
Speaker 3: years ago and that ever since. Now I could have

452
00:26:55,573 --> 00:26:59,053
Speaker 3: be careful this one. It's either that or it's agriculture.

453
00:26:59,653 --> 00:27:03,373
Speaker 3: So animals, but one of the farm sizes. Global farm

454
00:27:03,413 --> 00:27:05,973
Speaker 3: size are coming down because we're just more efficient in

455
00:27:06,013 --> 00:27:08,333
Speaker 3: the way we use each piece of land.

456
00:27:08,653 --> 00:27:11,573
Speaker 2: You said, you said that it was grain that is

457
00:27:11,613 --> 00:27:13,173
Speaker 2: the one area that needs the land.

458
00:27:14,213 --> 00:27:17,093
Speaker 3: That's right, Yes, still yes. I mean the point is

459
00:27:17,133 --> 00:27:21,253
Speaker 3: that in the case of I can predict, for example,

460
00:27:21,453 --> 00:27:24,253
Speaker 3: on the forty year timescale, which after all, is that

461
00:27:24,653 --> 00:27:26,893
Speaker 3: it is the time. I've been nearly come over for

462
00:27:27,093 --> 00:27:29,213
Speaker 3: year since I've been away. But when I left New

463
00:27:29,293 --> 00:27:33,253
Speaker 3: Zealand nineteen seventy one, everybody swore that wool would see

464
00:27:33,253 --> 00:27:36,973
Speaker 3: off any form of synthetic fiber as a material for

465
00:27:37,093 --> 00:27:40,373
Speaker 3: keeping warm outside. Well, we know that hasn't happened, But

466
00:27:40,453 --> 00:27:44,413
Speaker 3: I think within forty years we could have all major

467
00:27:44,493 --> 00:27:48,493
Speaker 3: cities being self reliant, self sufficient on their food from

468
00:27:48,533 --> 00:27:51,653
Speaker 3: within their own boundaries. There are now a number of

469
00:27:52,333 --> 00:27:56,413
Speaker 3: excuse me, vertical farms being developed which have a productivity

470
00:27:56,453 --> 00:28:01,133
Speaker 3: of seventy times per unit area than outside. And so

471
00:28:02,373 --> 00:28:04,693
Speaker 3: it mightn't be everybody's cup of tea to eat that

472
00:28:04,733 --> 00:28:06,333
Speaker 3: sort of thing. But if it's a difference between not

473
00:28:06,413 --> 00:28:10,133
Speaker 3: eating and eating food from from a food farm inside

474
00:28:10,173 --> 00:28:11,493
Speaker 3: the boundaries, people will eat it.

475
00:28:12,573 --> 00:28:16,093
Speaker 2: Give me your thought, then, on the political approach of

476
00:28:16,173 --> 00:28:21,413
Speaker 2: corraling people into cities and stopping the spread to even

477
00:28:21,453 --> 00:28:26,373
Speaker 2: the suburbs, but certainly beyond, in other words, tight city

478
00:28:26,453 --> 00:28:31,293
Speaker 2: boundaries and regulations that limit limit expansion.

479
00:28:32,493 --> 00:28:35,653
Speaker 3: Well, I'm all for freedom, make surely rather than putting

480
00:28:35,653 --> 00:28:37,133
Speaker 3: too many limits on I'm glad.

481
00:28:37,533 --> 00:28:39,013
Speaker 2: I'm so glad you said that.

482
00:28:40,093 --> 00:28:42,533
Speaker 3: Well, the other side of it is that we will

483
00:28:42,573 --> 00:28:48,173
Speaker 3: do this voluntarily. I mean, people didn't pile into London unwillingly,

484
00:28:48,213 --> 00:28:50,493
Speaker 3: and many of them choose right now, a lot of

485
00:28:50,773 --> 00:28:52,733
Speaker 3: there's a lot of New Zealand people living in London.

486
00:28:52,773 --> 00:28:55,413
Speaker 3: Why are they there because of the excitement and the

487
00:28:55,453 --> 00:28:58,253
Speaker 3: buzz that is provided by a city, which is to

488
00:28:58,293 --> 00:29:02,693
Speaker 3: be contrasted with the tranquility and stillness and ined sometimes

489
00:29:02,733 --> 00:29:06,013
Speaker 3: loneliness out on the countryside. So it's not a matter

490
00:29:06,053 --> 00:29:10,373
Speaker 3: of having to legislate for it. It's the way it

491
00:29:10,453 --> 00:29:13,213
Speaker 3: maybe like legislating to tell people stay out of Auckland,

492
00:29:14,453 --> 00:29:16,893
Speaker 3: you know that would that would even if they tried

493
00:29:16,893 --> 00:29:17,933
Speaker 3: it, it probably wouldn't work.

494
00:29:18,853 --> 00:29:22,693
Speaker 2: Well, they are moving very rapidly to banning cars.

495
00:29:23,493 --> 00:29:26,333
Speaker 3: Well, now, well that's an interesting one because I was

496
00:29:26,533 --> 00:29:31,053
Speaker 3: I actually drove fifty kilometers today and I thought, well,

497
00:29:31,453 --> 00:29:33,773
Speaker 3: suppose I hadn't been allowed to, or suppose I had

498
00:29:33,773 --> 00:29:36,693
Speaker 3: had to wait and get a piece of public transport.

499
00:29:37,413 --> 00:29:40,413
Speaker 3: And the problem with public transport is it really does

500
00:29:40,453 --> 00:29:44,413
Speaker 3: work in cities like London and Tokyo and that where

501
00:29:44,453 --> 00:29:47,933
Speaker 3: it's very high density. But if you want to cycle

502
00:29:48,013 --> 00:29:51,573
Speaker 3: from the airport to the center of town, which will

503
00:29:51,613 --> 00:29:55,293
Speaker 3: be it's quite a distance and not everybody would be

504
00:29:55,333 --> 00:29:57,813
Speaker 3: fit enough to do it, so you need dense forms

505
00:29:57,813 --> 00:30:00,973
Speaker 3: of transport. And even if you take the high speed

506
00:30:01,293 --> 00:30:07,693
Speaker 3: the link between the city center and the airport, there's

507
00:30:07,693 --> 00:30:11,893
Speaker 3: only a small fraction of Auckland citizens who actually live

508
00:30:11,973 --> 00:30:15,573
Speaker 3: within walking the little alone cycle distance with that particular feature.

509
00:30:16,253 --> 00:30:21,253
Speaker 2: Indeed, talking of the Climate Change Committee in Great Britain,

510
00:30:23,133 --> 00:30:25,133
Speaker 2: some of the measures you wrote, some of the measures

511
00:30:25,653 --> 00:30:29,733
Speaker 2: introduced by the committee have actually made global emissions worse.

512
00:30:30,733 --> 00:30:32,693
Speaker 3: Oh yes, there are a number of examples of that.

513
00:30:33,373 --> 00:30:36,053
Speaker 3: The critical one in the UK is that the price

514
00:30:36,053 --> 00:30:38,933
Speaker 3: of electricity has an upward wedge on it, and that

515
00:30:39,053 --> 00:30:42,173
Speaker 3: wedge of prices to pay for windmills and so on

516
00:30:42,213 --> 00:30:45,573
Speaker 3: and so forth. So what it's prompted and almost immediately,

517
00:30:45,693 --> 00:30:49,573
Speaker 3: was that the aluminium industry closed down and we now

518
00:30:49,613 --> 00:30:53,093
Speaker 3: import our aluminium from China. When the aluminium was made

519
00:30:53,173 --> 00:30:57,733
Speaker 3: in the UK, it was made partly with nuclear electricity,

520
00:30:57,773 --> 00:31:01,973
Speaker 3: partly with gas and partly with coal. But where we

521
00:31:02,093 --> 00:31:05,973
Speaker 3: now import all our eleminum from China, where it's made

522
00:31:05,973 --> 00:31:09,613
Speaker 3: exclusively from coal. So while our missions have gone down,

523
00:31:11,573 --> 00:31:15,853
Speaker 3: our emissions by consumption have actually gone up. As far

524
00:31:15,893 --> 00:31:19,013
Speaker 3: as that is concerned, and it's only the extent to

525
00:31:19,053 --> 00:31:21,893
Speaker 3: which we're going to be more and more efficient, and

526
00:31:21,933 --> 00:31:24,893
Speaker 3: we are being more and more efficient at using materials

527
00:31:24,893 --> 00:31:27,493
Speaker 3: that we can bring that down again. But the immediate

528
00:31:27,493 --> 00:31:31,733
Speaker 3: effect over the ten years was to raise the emissions

529
00:31:31,733 --> 00:31:35,893
Speaker 3: from al aminum sourcing the aluminum used in the United Kingdom.

530
00:31:36,573 --> 00:31:41,493
Speaker 2: The World Economic Forum, can I ask your opinion, Well.

531
00:31:41,293 --> 00:31:45,173
Speaker 3: It's what I call a talking shop with four groups

532
00:31:45,213 --> 00:31:50,933
Speaker 3: of people. Their are industrialists, academics, political leaders and celebrities.

533
00:31:51,733 --> 00:31:53,293
Speaker 3: And as a talking shop, I mean there is an

534
00:31:53,293 --> 00:31:57,213
Speaker 3: equivalent talking shop for scientists and technologists. Actually it's run

535
00:31:57,253 --> 00:32:00,653
Speaker 3: in Japan and Kyoto every two years that it doesn't

536
00:32:00,653 --> 00:32:03,653
Speaker 3: have any celebrities, and there is a serious attempt there

537
00:32:04,013 --> 00:32:06,413
Speaker 3: to try and look at the main issues that have

538
00:32:06,493 --> 00:32:10,613
Speaker 3: looked at science and technology for in Japan are at

539
00:32:11,133 --> 00:32:13,693
Speaker 3: looking after the world's poorer and making sure they get

540
00:32:13,733 --> 00:32:17,213
Speaker 3: effective and efficient access to things that the people in

541
00:32:17,293 --> 00:32:21,413
Speaker 3: the world that developed world take for granted. But it's

542
00:32:21,533 --> 00:32:25,213
Speaker 3: room for a lot of networking and quontificating.

543
00:32:24,653 --> 00:32:26,333
Speaker 2: Well they're working. I mean, there is a lot of

544
00:32:26,333 --> 00:32:29,813
Speaker 2: publicity being given now an increasing amounts and it'll get

545
00:32:29,853 --> 00:32:34,933
Speaker 2: bigger as the next meeting in January gets closer. That

546
00:32:35,053 --> 00:32:39,173
Speaker 2: is to do with the great reset, as it's known. Yes,

547
00:32:39,573 --> 00:32:43,613
Speaker 2: and they seem to be pulling a lot of support

548
00:32:43,733 --> 00:32:49,573
Speaker 2: from journalism and from academia for exactly that.

549
00:32:51,093 --> 00:32:54,413
Speaker 3: Well, look, that's the standard way to change people's minds,

550
00:32:54,453 --> 00:32:56,853
Speaker 3: and good luck to them. But I think the real

551
00:32:56,893 --> 00:33:00,693
Speaker 3: issue is when the proverbial hits the fan or the

552
00:33:00,893 --> 00:33:04,373
Speaker 3: rubber hits the road. That's where a lot of these

553
00:33:04,373 --> 00:33:07,853
Speaker 3: people whose job is to talk have to stand back

554
00:33:07,893 --> 00:33:11,573
Speaker 3: and give way to people who actually do. And that's engineers.

555
00:33:11,613 --> 00:33:16,933
Speaker 3: And engineers learned a lesson years ago in Biblical times

556
00:33:16,973 --> 00:33:19,813
Speaker 3: from building the Tower of Babel. They didn't know at

557
00:33:19,853 --> 00:33:21,733
Speaker 3: the time when they're asked to build the tower. They

558
00:33:21,733 --> 00:33:24,653
Speaker 3: didn't know where Heaven was and i in which direction

559
00:33:24,773 --> 00:33:26,693
Speaker 3: to build it, or how much it was going to

560
00:33:26,693 --> 00:33:30,533
Speaker 3: cost when they started out, and it ended in chaos.

561
00:33:31,373 --> 00:33:35,973
Speaker 3: I've got a fairly confident prediction that when we start

562
00:33:36,013 --> 00:33:38,373
Speaker 3: to do very big things and then find out part

563
00:33:38,413 --> 00:33:42,013
Speaker 3: way through that it's all not going to work. Saying

564
00:33:42,093 --> 00:33:44,533
Speaker 3: for fifteen years time, we're going to be nowhere near it.

565
00:33:44,693 --> 00:33:47,293
Speaker 3: Well past twenty thirty, people are going to be asking

566
00:33:47,293 --> 00:33:50,333
Speaker 3: serious questions how do we get to this mess And

567
00:33:50,373 --> 00:33:54,733
Speaker 3: the problem is there's nobody being given a voice to

568
00:33:54,893 --> 00:33:58,493
Speaker 3: actually say but hang on a minute, Hang on a minute. So,

569
00:33:58,613 --> 00:34:00,813
Speaker 3: for example, if we were to convert the whole of

570
00:34:00,853 --> 00:34:05,213
Speaker 3: the UK car fleet tomorrow to a vehicle fleet tomorrow

571
00:34:05,253 --> 00:34:09,013
Speaker 3: to electric cars, we would need a significt confraction of

572
00:34:09,093 --> 00:34:12,293
Speaker 3: the amount of copper use in the world, nearly half

573
00:34:12,333 --> 00:34:16,173
Speaker 3: of all the lithium and more of disposium, neodonium, some

574
00:34:16,253 --> 00:34:21,453
Speaker 3: of the other rare earth metals they are sourced today

575
00:34:21,493 --> 00:34:27,093
Speaker 3: in the world, just to provide the UK with electric

576
00:34:27,133 --> 00:34:30,773
Speaker 3: cars and the energy infrastructure to allow them to operate. Now,

577
00:34:30,813 --> 00:34:33,133
Speaker 3: when you think that the UK itself is less than

578
00:34:33,133 --> 00:34:36,573
Speaker 3: one percent of the population of the world, you then

579
00:34:36,693 --> 00:34:39,573
Speaker 3: suddenly find that we've got to treble that sort of

580
00:34:39,613 --> 00:34:42,973
Speaker 3: thing to actually get a stop. Now, eventually you're setting

581
00:34:43,053 --> 00:34:45,333
Speaker 3: into a mode of recycling, you won't need so much.

582
00:34:45,373 --> 00:34:48,013
Speaker 3: But the step jump to make the transition is of

583
00:34:48,053 --> 00:34:50,773
Speaker 3: a size that people haven't given adequate thought about.

584
00:34:52,333 --> 00:34:56,973
Speaker 2: In your initial conclusions from that presentation, there were three

585
00:34:57,053 --> 00:35:01,333
Speaker 2: three man energy equals quality of life, and we intervene

586
00:35:01,413 --> 00:35:05,613
Speaker 2: there only with the most convincing of cases. Correct, has

587
00:35:05,653 --> 00:35:06,253
Speaker 2: that changed?

588
00:35:07,213 --> 00:35:12,053
Speaker 3: No true yes. I mean the point is at the moment,

589
00:35:12,613 --> 00:35:16,653
Speaker 3: everybody in Europe today uses about ten times as much

590
00:35:16,773 --> 00:35:20,613
Speaker 3: energy per person as somebody two hundred years ago. It's

591
00:35:20,653 --> 00:35:24,533
Speaker 3: really interesting to see where that energy goes. They use

592
00:35:24,573 --> 00:35:27,373
Speaker 3: about three times as much energy today just on the

593
00:35:27,413 --> 00:35:32,413
Speaker 3: manufacture and the distribution of stuff. That's all stuff that

594
00:35:32,533 --> 00:35:35,093
Speaker 3: gone by. If you think of a house in eighteen hundred,

595
00:35:35,293 --> 00:35:38,693
Speaker 3: it had a few utensils and a few family treasures

596
00:35:39,213 --> 00:35:42,373
Speaker 3: and a little bit of furniture. If you contrast that

597
00:35:42,373 --> 00:35:44,693
Speaker 3: with home to that's full of stuff. Well, we use

598
00:35:44,733 --> 00:35:47,493
Speaker 3: three times as much energy per person per day to

599
00:35:47,773 --> 00:35:52,453
Speaker 3: generate and purchase that stuff. We also use the same

600
00:35:52,493 --> 00:35:55,933
Speaker 3: amount total amount of energy per person today that somebody

601
00:35:55,973 --> 00:35:58,693
Speaker 3: used in Europe two hundred years ago, just on our

602
00:35:58,733 --> 00:36:02,533
Speaker 3: private motory. And there are things like this to god,

603
00:36:02,653 --> 00:36:05,653
Speaker 3: so we use about seven times as much. So and

604
00:36:06,453 --> 00:36:10,493
Speaker 3: if you look at the trend in particular presentation in

605
00:36:10,533 --> 00:36:12,693
Speaker 3: your phone to, I think it's one of the earlier

606
00:36:12,733 --> 00:36:16,613
Speaker 3: figures shows the way in which the population has increased

607
00:36:16,973 --> 00:36:21,213
Speaker 3: and by about sevenfolds since eighteen hundred, that the energy

608
00:36:21,293 --> 00:36:25,573
Speaker 3: use has increased about forty twofold or forty fivefold. Second

609
00:36:25,613 --> 00:36:28,293
Speaker 3: and GDP have gone up several hundred fold.

610
00:36:28,973 --> 00:36:34,293
Speaker 2: Your second point was initial conclusions renewables do not come

611
00:36:34,333 --> 00:36:37,413
Speaker 2: close to constituting a solution to the climate change problem

612
00:36:37,453 --> 00:36:40,773
Speaker 2: for the industrialized world. My only question is is New

613
00:36:40,853 --> 00:36:42,253
Speaker 2: Zealand in that category.

614
00:36:43,173 --> 00:36:48,933
Speaker 3: No, it's an outline to along with Along with Norway,

615
00:36:49,293 --> 00:36:52,893
Speaker 3: these are two countries with low density population, lots of mountains. Now,

616
00:36:52,893 --> 00:36:55,653
Speaker 3: of course, if we were to electrify the grid in

617
00:36:55,773 --> 00:36:59,173
Speaker 3: order to provide for electric cards and particular electric trucks,

618
00:37:00,293 --> 00:37:02,493
Speaker 3: we would have to double more than double, in fact

619
00:37:02,493 --> 00:37:04,733
Speaker 3: treble the size of the grid. Now the question is

620
00:37:04,773 --> 00:37:07,453
Speaker 3: where is all that extra electricity coming from. Well, very

621
00:37:07,453 --> 00:37:10,493
Speaker 3: little of it will come from hydro, because there is

622
00:37:10,653 --> 00:37:14,173
Speaker 3: enough pushback against any form of new hydro. But the

623
00:37:14,213 --> 00:37:19,813
Speaker 3: idea of doubling our capacity is just not conceivable. The

624
00:37:19,893 --> 00:37:23,613
Speaker 3: question about wind, well, I'm waiting to see the lifetime

625
00:37:24,053 --> 00:37:26,853
Speaker 3: of some of the winds, some of the ones, some

626
00:37:26,893 --> 00:37:29,693
Speaker 3: of the wind turbines offshore in England because of the

627
00:37:29,733 --> 00:37:36,093
Speaker 3: ice associated with winter storms starting to free the laminations

628
00:37:36,133 --> 00:37:38,093
Speaker 3: on the blades, so it's not clear they will last

629
00:37:38,133 --> 00:37:40,773
Speaker 3: as long as they thought they would. So there's a

630
00:37:40,813 --> 00:37:43,373
Speaker 3: whole series of things which make me think that we're

631
00:37:43,373 --> 00:37:47,933
Speaker 3: going to fall far short, particularly the demand, the demand

632
00:37:47,933 --> 00:37:52,173
Speaker 3: for land area to We need civil to something like

633
00:37:52,213 --> 00:37:57,213
Speaker 3: the whole size of Auckland and solar panels covered literally

634
00:37:57,253 --> 00:38:02,493
Speaker 3: to provide the solar contribution to this all electrified.

635
00:38:02,973 --> 00:38:04,573
Speaker 2: I struggle to see it ever happening.

636
00:38:05,653 --> 00:38:08,573
Speaker 3: Well, that's that's my point. You can write it in principle. Well,

637
00:38:08,693 --> 00:38:11,453
Speaker 3: I've been trying, but have failed so far to actually

638
00:38:11,533 --> 00:38:15,813
Speaker 3: show that the transition actually violates the laws of thermodynamics.

639
00:38:16,013 --> 00:38:17,893
Speaker 3: If I could do that, I'd be in a much

640
00:38:17,933 --> 00:38:20,893
Speaker 3: more powerful position. But it's a bit like the Second

641
00:38:20,893 --> 00:38:23,493
Speaker 3: World War, where people said, look, it doesn't matter how

642
00:38:23,573 --> 00:38:25,493
Speaker 3: much it costs, we're going to build whatever it takes.

643
00:38:25,533 --> 00:38:27,813
Speaker 3: We're going to do whatever it takes because we have

644
00:38:27,893 --> 00:38:30,493
Speaker 3: to beat an enemy. So far, at the moment, there

645
00:38:30,533 --> 00:38:35,733
Speaker 3: is no way that climate change is portrayed. Well, they're

646
00:38:35,733 --> 00:38:40,053
Speaker 3: trying to portray it as an existential enemy, but you

647
00:38:40,093 --> 00:38:42,293
Speaker 3: see now you find that they've gone too far. So

648
00:38:42,373 --> 00:38:44,893
Speaker 3: I've got colleagues who are pulling back, so that when

649
00:38:44,933 --> 00:38:48,653
Speaker 3: the Norwegian scientists last week said, look, it's a real

650
00:38:48,733 --> 00:38:50,893
Speaker 3: existential threat. You know, some of our kids are going

651
00:38:50,933 --> 00:38:53,213
Speaker 3: to die in their lifetime from climate change, and then

652
00:38:53,253 --> 00:38:56,773
Speaker 3: the more greening of the parents staying their kids, we

653
00:38:56,813 --> 00:38:58,693
Speaker 3: don't really need to study at school because you're going

654
00:38:58,733 --> 00:39:00,933
Speaker 3: to die before you grow up. I mean, this sort

655
00:39:00,973 --> 00:39:05,013
Speaker 3: of thing is now being wound back as being grossly excessive.

656
00:39:05,533 --> 00:39:10,453
Speaker 3: It was interesting that even of the initial wife of

657
00:39:11,173 --> 00:39:15,933
Speaker 3: Stephen Hawking was convinced when she married that they weren't

658
00:39:15,973 --> 00:39:17,853
Speaker 3: going to live for very long because Europe was going

659
00:39:17,853 --> 00:39:20,173
Speaker 3: to go up in a nuclear bomb. In the late

660
00:39:20,213 --> 00:39:21,333
Speaker 3: sixties early seventies.

661
00:39:21,333 --> 00:39:21,813
Speaker 2: It was a.

662
00:39:21,693 --> 00:39:24,733
Speaker 3: Prevailing view among many people at that time. But it

663
00:39:24,853 --> 00:39:28,613
Speaker 3: just hasn't happened indeed. So now let me just say

664
00:39:28,613 --> 00:39:31,493
Speaker 3: there's another whole point that I haven't even got on here,

665
00:39:32,133 --> 00:39:34,133
Speaker 3: which I think is even more important that we have

666
00:39:34,253 --> 00:39:38,933
Speaker 3: to study. Let's suppose, for example, that the sea level

667
00:39:38,973 --> 00:39:43,773
Speaker 3: does inexorably continue to arise, and by that I mean

668
00:39:44,373 --> 00:39:46,773
Speaker 3: people that are within a meter of the sea level

669
00:39:46,813 --> 00:39:51,413
Speaker 3: even behind will need to have walls built along the shore,

670
00:39:51,693 --> 00:39:54,653
Speaker 3: you know, from all around Wellington Harbor or wrong all

671
00:39:54,733 --> 00:39:57,173
Speaker 3: our main cities and near the sea. It would not

672
00:39:57,293 --> 00:40:01,013
Speaker 3: take long. It would be a significant engineering project, but

673
00:40:01,573 --> 00:40:05,293
Speaker 3: no bigger than say a motorway project to build a

674
00:40:05,373 --> 00:40:08,813
Speaker 3: wall that will protect all of our major as sets

675
00:40:09,453 --> 00:40:14,093
Speaker 3: from one meter of sea level rise? Now, who is

676
00:40:14,133 --> 00:40:17,653
Speaker 3: doing the scoping of that? Who was investing in that?

677
00:40:18,173 --> 00:40:22,173
Speaker 3: And so everybody is spending their time on trying to

678
00:40:22,213 --> 00:40:25,173
Speaker 3: mitigate climate change, I think we should be doing a

679
00:40:25,173 --> 00:40:28,293
Speaker 3: lot of preparation for adapting to it. So the example

680
00:40:28,413 --> 00:40:30,693
Speaker 3: I always gives is the Thames Barrier in London. There's

681
00:40:30,733 --> 00:40:34,373
Speaker 3: a big storm that flooded lots of England in nineteen

682
00:40:34,413 --> 00:40:36,893
Speaker 3: fifty three, and people said, look, the next time we

683
00:40:36,933 --> 00:40:38,773
Speaker 3: have one alike of those, that's going to really do

684
00:40:38,893 --> 00:40:41,613
Speaker 3: for the central London. So the people started doing the

685
00:40:41,653 --> 00:40:44,613
Speaker 3: actual aerial calculations and by the mid eighties came to

686
00:40:44,653 --> 00:40:49,293
Speaker 3: the inclusion if they built the Thames Barrier now, the chances

687
00:40:49,333 --> 00:40:51,933
Speaker 3: are that in its design lifetime it will pay back

688
00:40:51,973 --> 00:40:55,893
Speaker 3: its cost more than payback its cost and savings from

689
00:40:55,973 --> 00:41:00,933
Speaker 3: insurance claims against flooding in London. And that's indeed what's happened.

690
00:41:01,333 --> 00:41:04,173
Speaker 3: Now they're even doing the actual calculations to say when

691
00:41:04,213 --> 00:41:07,493
Speaker 3: will they put another meter on that barrier. Now, I

692
00:41:07,533 --> 00:41:10,653
Speaker 3: think there should be for every pound that's being put

693
00:41:10,693 --> 00:41:14,053
Speaker 3: into climate change mitigation, we should be setting aside a

694
00:41:14,093 --> 00:41:17,333
Speaker 3: pound or a dollar in this case for climate change adaptation,

695
00:41:18,093 --> 00:41:20,573
Speaker 3: and particularly when as I come back to what I

696
00:41:20,573 --> 00:41:23,133
Speaker 3: said at the start that five hundred times as many

697
00:41:23,173 --> 00:41:25,773
Speaker 3: people in the world are going directly in the opposite

698
00:41:26,253 --> 00:41:29,493
Speaker 3: direction as we are about their personal consumption, which is

699
00:41:29,613 --> 00:41:32,293
Speaker 3: all continuous as it ever has been to be eighty

700
00:41:32,333 --> 00:41:35,093
Speaker 3: five percent provided by fossil fuel.

701
00:41:35,453 --> 00:41:38,813
Speaker 2: As briefly as you like the last point in your conclusions,

702
00:41:39,293 --> 00:41:41,933
Speaker 2: China is not the beacon of hope it is portrayed

703
00:41:41,973 --> 00:41:42,213
Speaker 2: to be.

704
00:41:43,133 --> 00:41:46,253
Speaker 3: What do you mean, Well, I think when I looked

705
00:41:46,253 --> 00:41:49,453
Speaker 3: at people say they're doing wonderful things. But they are

706
00:41:49,493 --> 00:41:51,893
Speaker 3: doing wonderful things. They're spending more on all of these

707
00:41:51,933 --> 00:41:55,613
Speaker 3: things together, but it's still making a very small impact.

708
00:41:56,053 --> 00:41:59,333
Speaker 3: You know, the Chinese are still building coal fire power stations,

709
00:41:59,733 --> 00:42:03,613
Speaker 3: and quite a lot of them now. The secret about China, though,

710
00:42:03,733 --> 00:42:07,533
Speaker 3: is that its population is going to stop increasing in

711
00:42:08,013 --> 00:42:11,253
Speaker 3: about ten years from now, and by twenty sixty already

712
00:42:11,293 --> 00:42:14,253
Speaker 3: the population of China will be less than it was

713
00:42:14,293 --> 00:42:18,413
Speaker 3: in the year two thousand and this almost no revolution

714
00:42:18,813 --> 00:42:25,213
Speaker 3: in fertility and democratics will make any difference to that statement.

715
00:42:25,853 --> 00:42:30,653
Speaker 3: So is the problem over the next few years is

716
00:42:30,693 --> 00:42:32,773
Speaker 3: going to be Africa, India and South Asia.

717
00:42:33,853 --> 00:42:35,693
Speaker 2: Sitting on my desk in front of in front of me.

718
00:42:36,333 --> 00:42:39,053
Speaker 2: Up to the side is a book by Clive Hamilton,

719
00:42:39,933 --> 00:42:45,773
Speaker 2: The Silent Invasion, China's Influence in Australia. He's on my

720
00:42:45,853 --> 00:42:49,533
Speaker 2: list sometime soon. I wanted to extract from you what

721
00:42:49,613 --> 00:42:52,373
Speaker 2: your thoughts were on that. Let me say that it's

722
00:42:52,373 --> 00:42:54,773
Speaker 2: been a pleasure talking with you. I would have loved longer.

723
00:42:55,013 --> 00:42:58,453
Speaker 3: God, thanks very much. All I'm wanting is for there

724
00:42:58,493 --> 00:43:01,293
Speaker 3: to be a debate about this, so that everybody goes

725
00:43:01,333 --> 00:43:04,093
Speaker 3: into what they're doing with their eyes open for the

726
00:43:04,173 --> 00:43:07,533
Speaker 3: upsides and the downsides. And at the moment I'm afraid

727
00:43:07,573 --> 00:43:11,493
Speaker 3: there's very little reluctance to have this debate. I mean,

728
00:43:11,533 --> 00:43:14,653
Speaker 3: I actually wrote a serious paper about the cost of

729
00:43:15,093 --> 00:43:22,253
Speaker 3: electrifying the British economy and the consequences are directly in

730
00:43:22,333 --> 00:43:26,733
Speaker 3: contradiction to several of the studies put out by the

731
00:43:26,733 --> 00:43:30,773
Speaker 3: Climate Change Committee, and I think some of their comments

732
00:43:30,813 --> 00:43:33,613
Speaker 3: have got engineering flaws in them. And I asked to

733
00:43:33,733 --> 00:43:37,093
Speaker 3: please to be able to engage with them on this

734
00:43:37,333 --> 00:43:41,213
Speaker 3: very serious matter. But the replier got from the Secretary's

735
00:43:41,253 --> 00:43:43,853
Speaker 3: Chief executive is thank you very much. For your critique,

736
00:43:43,893 --> 00:43:46,573
Speaker 3: but we choose not to engage with you full stop.

737
00:43:47,493 --> 00:43:49,573
Speaker 3: So I think that just says it all. I mean,

738
00:43:49,573 --> 00:43:53,893
Speaker 3: if I was done Tom Dick or Harry with some

739
00:43:54,013 --> 00:43:59,373
Speaker 3: fancy isolated be in my bonnet, that's one thing. But

740
00:43:59,533 --> 00:44:01,973
Speaker 3: what I've got is a serious takedown of some of

741
00:44:02,013 --> 00:44:05,173
Speaker 3: their issues, and I'd like to find out. I mean,

742
00:44:05,213 --> 00:44:07,933
Speaker 3: if I'm wrong, I'm being made it very clear that

743
00:44:07,973 --> 00:44:11,133
Speaker 3: I'll make a public retraction and go away.

744
00:44:11,533 --> 00:44:12,413
Speaker 2: But so far.

745
00:44:13,933 --> 00:44:15,373
Speaker 3: I'm not wrong, and.

746
00:44:15,373 --> 00:44:17,173
Speaker 2: I don't believe you are. It's been a great pleasure.

747
00:44:17,173 --> 00:44:19,173
Speaker 2: Thank you, good bye, Michael.

748
00:44:25,173 --> 00:44:36,013
Speaker 4: Thank you.

749
00:44:38,413 --> 00:44:41,613
Speaker 2: Out of the op ed in The Australian on Monday

750
00:44:41,653 --> 00:44:45,133
Speaker 2: the thirtieth of November, written by our friend Nick Kato.

751
00:44:45,453 --> 00:44:48,813
Speaker 2: He anchors it around the rud Royal Commission in Australia

752
00:44:48,933 --> 00:44:54,013
Speaker 2: into diversity in the media. He's upset. He and Malcolm

753
00:44:54,053 --> 00:44:57,133
Speaker 2: Turnbull are both upset. They're always upset, but on this

754
00:44:57,133 --> 00:45:01,253
Speaker 2: occasion they're upset about the about the Murdoch Press and

755
00:45:01,293 --> 00:45:04,133
Speaker 2: the number of newspapers that Murdock owns. As I think

756
00:45:04,253 --> 00:45:07,373
Speaker 2: Nick Kato says somewhere here, what they're really upset about

757
00:45:07,453 --> 00:45:09,373
Speaker 2: is the number of people who are buying the Murdoch

758
00:45:09,573 --> 00:45:14,133
Speaker 2: papers anyway, it's headed Media and diversity alive, but not

759
00:45:14,533 --> 00:45:16,933
Speaker 2: at all well in New Zealand, and I pick it

760
00:45:17,013 --> 00:45:19,893
Speaker 2: up where it matters to us. The media paradise that

761
00:45:20,013 --> 00:45:24,893
Speaker 2: Rudd craves looks somewhat like New Zealand, where inoffensive newspapers

762
00:45:24,933 --> 00:45:28,133
Speaker 2: compete for drabness and commentators are all but united in

763
00:45:28,253 --> 00:45:31,053
Speaker 2: adoration of Jasindra Adern. You'll struggle to read a word

764
00:45:31,093 --> 00:45:34,093
Speaker 2: of dissent in the four daily newspapers. Mike Hosking and

765
00:45:34,133 --> 00:45:36,613
Speaker 2: some of his fellow presenters are prepared to break from

766
00:45:36,613 --> 00:45:40,133
Speaker 2: the pack at Newstalk ZEDB, but that's it. Retired Zenby

767
00:45:40,173 --> 00:45:43,613
Speaker 2: host Layton Smith remains in the fray as a podcaster

768
00:45:43,773 --> 00:45:46,973
Speaker 2: and colomnist. But when it comes to broadcast media, Hosking

769
00:45:47,253 --> 00:45:51,213
Speaker 2: is Alan Jones, Chris Kenny, Andrew Bolt, Peter Credlin and

770
00:45:51,533 --> 00:45:54,413
Speaker 2: Paul Murray rolled into one. I suggest there's a bit

771
00:45:54,453 --> 00:45:58,613
Speaker 2: too much collagen injected into that, but nevertheless he's close.

772
00:45:59,373 --> 00:46:01,813
Speaker 2: The only hint of irritation at the Prime Minister's weekly

773
00:46:01,853 --> 00:46:04,933
Speaker 2: press conference is that she isn't running fast enough with

774
00:46:05,013 --> 00:46:09,373
Speaker 2: her agenda of transformational change. The umbrellatur for the writing

775
00:46:09,573 --> 00:46:14,413
Speaker 2: of social injustices, including those yet to be invented. Adern's

776
00:46:14,413 --> 00:46:17,213
Speaker 2: decision to hold a referendum on the legalization of cannabis

777
00:46:17,293 --> 00:46:20,173
Speaker 2: was widely praised as another step on the path to sainthood.

778
00:46:20,573 --> 00:46:23,373
Speaker 2: The proposal was rejected by fifty one point six percent

779
00:46:23,373 --> 00:46:28,373
Speaker 2: of voters, prompting this exchange Media. In terms of governing

780
00:46:28,373 --> 00:46:31,333
Speaker 2: for all New Zealanders, you do have forty eight point

781
00:46:31,373 --> 00:46:34,453
Speaker 2: four percent of New Zealanders who did vote for legalized cannabis,

782
00:46:34,733 --> 00:46:38,653
Speaker 2: the PM and the majority who didn't, So we have

783
00:46:38,773 --> 00:46:42,413
Speaker 2: to be mindful of that too. Media, you have promised

784
00:46:42,413 --> 00:46:45,373
Speaker 2: to govern for all those of New Zealanders, including the

785
00:46:45,413 --> 00:46:48,613
Speaker 2: forty eight point four percent who did. There's an appetite

786
00:46:48,613 --> 00:46:51,413
Speaker 2: among an enormous section of the population for something, and

787
00:46:51,573 --> 00:46:56,053
Speaker 2: obviously the referendum did fail, But it doesn't mean can

788
00:46:56,093 --> 00:46:59,133
Speaker 2: we assume that because forty eight point nine percent of

789
00:46:59,293 --> 00:47:02,013
Speaker 2: Americans didn't vote for Joe Biden that Donald Trump can

790
00:47:02,053 --> 00:47:04,333
Speaker 2: stay in the White House? Or does the ballot only

791
00:47:04,413 --> 00:47:06,933
Speaker 2: count when the left is winning. Those with the more

792
00:47:06,933 --> 00:47:11,373
Speaker 2: sophisticated understanding of life liberal democracy than media in brackets

793
00:47:11,733 --> 00:47:15,293
Speaker 2: the generic name ascribed to journalists in the transcript. Presumably

794
00:47:15,413 --> 00:47:19,533
Speaker 2: because they are all of one mind, those brackets may

795
00:47:19,613 --> 00:47:22,773
Speaker 2: be feeling a little queasy. A prime minister who tells

796
00:47:22,853 --> 00:47:26,173
Speaker 2: voters she chose politics because it was the profession that

797
00:47:27,013 --> 00:47:30,333
Speaker 2: would make me feel I was making a difference, and

798
00:47:30,493 --> 00:47:33,813
Speaker 2: holds an absolute majority in the Parliament's only chamber is

799
00:47:33,853 --> 00:47:37,013
Speaker 2: an accident waiting to happen. An independent media should be

800
00:47:37,013 --> 00:47:40,493
Speaker 2: the first responders in such circumstances, ready to erect barriers

801
00:47:40,533 --> 00:47:43,133
Speaker 2: in the path of the Prime Minister should she swerve

802
00:47:43,173 --> 00:47:46,093
Speaker 2: across the line. Yet the press pack is not merely

803
00:47:46,133 --> 00:47:48,173
Speaker 2: on the bus. They're telling her how to drive it.

804
00:47:48,893 --> 00:47:52,013
Speaker 2: New Zealand's small population and splendid isolation a part of

805
00:47:52,053 --> 00:47:56,173
Speaker 2: the explanation for the enfeeblement of its media. A derned

806
00:47:56,253 --> 00:48:01,413
Speaker 2: sledgehammer response to the COVID nineteen pandemic hastened the decline.

807
00:48:01,533 --> 00:48:05,533
Speaker 2: In May nine, Entertainment let go of newspapers it inherited

808
00:48:05,533 --> 00:48:09,133
Speaker 2: from Fairfax, the Dominion Post, the Press and the Sunday

809
00:48:09,173 --> 00:48:13,293
Speaker 2: Star Times for one dollar to a company that goes

810
00:48:13,333 --> 00:48:16,733
Speaker 2: by the name of Stuff. It seems like a bargain.

811
00:48:16,973 --> 00:48:19,693
Speaker 2: Given the copy of the Post the newsstand will set

812
00:48:19,733 --> 00:48:22,573
Speaker 2: you back two dollars ninety, hardly a vote for confidence

813
00:48:22,573 --> 00:48:25,653
Speaker 2: in the future of the media. Yet market size is

814
00:48:25,693 --> 00:48:29,533
Speaker 2: only part of the explanation. It doesn't explain why, for example,

815
00:48:29,733 --> 00:48:32,733
Speaker 2: a country split politically down the middle, one hundred percent

816
00:48:32,813 --> 00:48:35,533
Speaker 2: of daily newspapers and virtually every TV and radio station

817
00:48:35,693 --> 00:48:39,013
Speaker 2: stands proudly with a DERN. We can only conclude that

818
00:48:39,053 --> 00:48:43,093
Speaker 2: commercial logic no longer applies. Media companies are no longer

819
00:48:43,173 --> 00:48:46,413
Speaker 2: driven by the pursuit of unserved segments of the market.

820
00:48:46,893 --> 00:48:49,493
Speaker 2: It's not the product that is faulty, but the customer.

821
00:48:50,013 --> 00:48:54,693
Speaker 2: When commercially minded proprietors leave the building, the journalists take charge.

822
00:48:54,853 --> 00:48:59,693
Speaker 2: They are university educated professionals cut from the same narcissistic

823
00:48:59,733 --> 00:49:02,693
Speaker 2: cloth as a Dern. They too want to feel like

824
00:49:02,693 --> 00:49:05,613
Speaker 2: they're making a difference. When the collapse of New Zealand's

825
00:49:05,653 --> 00:49:08,173
Speaker 2: fourth estate, it's difficult to see what might stop a

826
00:49:08,413 --> 00:49:12,453
Speaker 2: journalism becoming the country's official religion. The National Party is

827
00:49:12,453 --> 00:49:16,213
Speaker 2: in no position to offer effective political opposition. The party

828
00:49:16,253 --> 00:49:19,733
Speaker 2: that reinvented credible government in New Zealand is bruised from

829
00:49:19,733 --> 00:49:23,613
Speaker 2: two defeats, uncertain who should lead or in what direction

830
00:49:23,813 --> 00:49:27,413
Speaker 2: it should lead. Intellectual opposition is all but extinguished in

831
00:49:27,453 --> 00:49:32,413
Speaker 2: the universities, but still flickers on in alternative media, blogs,

832
00:49:32,453 --> 00:49:36,373
Speaker 2: websites and YouTube channels, which serve as a faint beacon

833
00:49:36,693 --> 00:49:40,213
Speaker 2: of dissent. And he concludes by going back to the

834
00:49:40,373 --> 00:49:44,693
Speaker 2: situation across the Tasman. Is this what Rudd seeks the

835
00:49:44,773 --> 00:49:47,493
Speaker 2: last thing a country needs as a prime minister? Basking

836
00:49:47,533 --> 00:49:50,493
Speaker 2: and applause. Who switches on the news and finds herself

837
00:49:50,893 --> 00:49:54,413
Speaker 2: staring at the mirror. Well it was pretty damning, you

838
00:49:54,493 --> 00:49:58,013
Speaker 2: might say. Whether you think he's one hundred percent correct

839
00:49:58,093 --> 00:50:00,573
Speaker 2: or not is entirely up to your interpretation of things.

840
00:50:00,613 --> 00:50:21,293
Speaker 2: But I know this already beat a lot of support, So.

841
00:50:21,333 --> 00:50:21,933
Speaker 4: There you have it.

842
00:50:22,333 --> 00:50:27,213
Speaker 2: Professor Michael Kelly be very interested in your comments one

843
00:50:27,213 --> 00:50:30,013
Speaker 2: way or the other, but I imagine that most people

844
00:50:30,053 --> 00:50:34,453
Speaker 2: will be supporters of Michael Kelly by this stage anyway.

845
00:50:34,573 --> 00:50:37,613
Speaker 2: Latent at newstalksib dot co dot z or Carolyn wi

846
00:50:37,653 --> 00:50:41,773
Speaker 2: a Y at NEWSTALKSIDB dot co dot Nz. Podcast two

847
00:50:41,853 --> 00:50:45,413
Speaker 2: ninety eight was originally going to be with Christian in London,

848
00:50:45,893 --> 00:50:48,293
Speaker 2: but a couple of things got in the way, so

849
00:50:48,773 --> 00:50:51,173
Speaker 2: he will be here next week. I know there's plenty

850
00:50:51,173 --> 00:50:53,773
Speaker 2: of people who are very keen to hear what he's

851
00:50:53,773 --> 00:50:57,413
Speaker 2: got to say this time round. In fact, Christian, come

852
00:50:57,413 --> 00:51:01,533
Speaker 2: here please. What what do you mean by what? It's

853
00:51:01,573 --> 00:51:03,293
Speaker 2: true that you were going to be on this week,

854
00:51:03,333 --> 00:51:05,293
Speaker 2: but things got in the way. As I just said,

855
00:51:05,733 --> 00:51:09,453
Speaker 2: so will you be available for next week? For podcasts

856
00:51:09,453 --> 00:51:12,853
Speaker 2: to ninety nine, I will be depending on the Greek

857
00:51:12,973 --> 00:51:15,653
Speaker 2: medical system.

858
00:51:15,733 --> 00:51:16,333
Speaker 3: That's a hint.

859
00:51:17,653 --> 00:51:21,093
Speaker 2: Just wait, there's a story to come, believe me. So

860
00:51:21,533 --> 00:51:25,613
Speaker 2: next week we'll be with Christian Smith, and then for

861
00:51:26,493 --> 00:51:29,493
Speaker 2: three hundred. I really don't know who's going to be

862
00:51:29,573 --> 00:51:33,333
Speaker 2: the guest for that big occasion because there are so

863
00:51:33,973 --> 00:51:38,253
Speaker 2: many possibilities. However, we'll be back next week. Until then,

864
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Speaker 2: as always, thank you for listening and we'll talk soon.

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Speaker 1: Thank you for more from News Talks at b Listen

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Speaker 1: live on air or online, and keep our shows with

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Speaker 1: you wherever you go with our podcast on iHeartRadio.