1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,800 Speaker 1: You've got a new seasonal outlook for the twenty five 2 00:00:01,880 --> 00:00:03,920 Speaker 1: twenty six year for the beef and lamb people. Now 3 00:00:03,960 --> 00:00:05,360 Speaker 1: things look good as far as I can work out. 4 00:00:05,400 --> 00:00:08,799 Speaker 1: Red meat continues its record run globally. Exports expected hit 5 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 1: ten and a half billion for the year end is September. 6 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:12,920 Speaker 1: Kate Eckland, as the chair of Beef and Lamb New Zealand, 7 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:15,840 Speaker 1: is back with US. Kate, Good morning, morning Mike. From 8 00:00:15,840 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 1: what I'm reading, volume drop, but the values up is 9 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:19,520 Speaker 1: that roughly right. 10 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:23,920 Speaker 2: Absolutely lower exports volumes in the current year, but we've 11 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 2: still seen the value of the exports rise by one 12 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 2: point four billion for the year end this year, and 13 00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:31,920 Speaker 2: the twenty five twenty six season is looking to be 14 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 2: just as good as holding steady good. 15 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:37,239 Speaker 1: So the value is driven by what a lower currency 16 00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:38,880 Speaker 1: or we're charging more or both. 17 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:43,240 Speaker 2: What we're seeing is just phenomenal global demand and that's 18 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:45,480 Speaker 2: coupled with really limited supply out of some of those 19 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:50,159 Speaker 2: e agricultural trading nations like Brazil and Australia, and the 20 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:53,280 Speaker 2: US hears it record lows as well. So I suppose 21 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 2: it's a perfect form of demand and supply coming together, 22 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 2: which is what's leading to this, and it looks like 23 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 2: this will persist for a couple of years. 24 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 1: I was going to say, I was reading about the 25 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 1: herd in America and there's nothing they can do about that, 26 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 1: and they're not even if they wanted to. They're not 27 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 1: doing anything about it as far as they can work. 28 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:10,479 Speaker 1: Ads to drought and all those sort of things. So 29 00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:13,039 Speaker 1: are those sort of markets good to go for a 30 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:16,319 Speaker 1: sustained period of time because they're not giving up beef? 31 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:20,920 Speaker 2: Are they they're absolutely not. In fact, Commanders is a 32 00:01:21,040 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 2: record levels despite the prices. So look, I think everything 33 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:27,760 Speaker 2: we're seeing suggest this is going to be good for 34 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:29,759 Speaker 2: a couple of years. You know, there's always some risks 35 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 2: on the horizon. There's a lot of there's a lot 36 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:36,200 Speaker 2: happening in the international trade space with tariffs and various 37 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:39,640 Speaker 2: safeguard actions happening, so you know there's always risk to that. 38 00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 2: We're a trading nation. But on the whole, the market 39 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:45,039 Speaker 2: fundamentals are pretty farmed. 40 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 1: We spend so much time on beef. This sheep's story 41 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 1: seems to be getting better. Is that fair? And it 42 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 1: seems to be getting better in places like the UK. 43 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 2: The sep story is better than it's been in years. 44 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 2: So it we're seeing really good demand and good prices 45 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 2: out of the UK and the EU, and we've seen 46 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:02,800 Speaker 2: a lot of products go back into those markets where 47 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 2: you know, in the last few years I've been in 48 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 2: China in the US and it was really needed. You know, 49 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 2: this is a great news story, but what it is 50 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 2: is it's a return to profitability. And you know, last 51 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 2: year we saw forty percent of our farmers running at 52 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:18,360 Speaker 2: a significant loss and most of those were the ones 53 00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 2: that were in the Hell Country sheet farmers. So you know, 54 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 2: it's a much needed return to profitability. 55 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:26,679 Speaker 1: Good is that a supply side issue as well? Going forward? 56 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: We got enough sheep still because we don't have as 57 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 1: many sheep as we used to have, and a lot 58 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 1: of them, you know, so we okay on that side 59 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:32,560 Speaker 1: of the equation. 60 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:35,679 Speaker 2: Oh, look at a real concern and you know it 61 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 2: was crunched some numbers and figured out that in the 62 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 2: last five years we've essentially foregone two billion dollars in 63 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 2: red meat exports just through stock numbers that we've lost 64 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:49,639 Speaker 2: from a forestation. So you know that the continuing decline 65 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 2: of sheet numbers is a concern. But you know what 66 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:55,639 Speaker 2: crisis like this does, and said that you know a 67 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:58,240 Speaker 2: lot of these farmers are now making money as it 68 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 2: puts a bit of confidence back in and hopefully we'll 69 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:02,240 Speaker 2: see some of those ship numbers start to climb. 70 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:04,200 Speaker 1: Back to someone in Wellington's got to be listening to 71 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:05,920 Speaker 1: this stunt. They I mean if they I mean, it 72 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 1: can't be that hard to crunch the numbers. If we 73 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:09,960 Speaker 1: got more sheep, we'd sell more meat, if we got 74 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 1: more you know, et cetera. And as opposed to planting trees, 75 00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:15,519 Speaker 1: so that whole setting, which is political, they've got to 76 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:18,680 Speaker 1: be hearing that, are they. 77 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 2: Look, obviously some changes have been made are onundy forestation 78 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 2: or you know where you can plant trees, but we 79 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:26,120 Speaker 2: don't think it's gone far enough. You know, we're really concerned. 80 00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:29,480 Speaker 2: We're still seeing really good productive farmland across the country 81 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:32,760 Speaker 2: being brought and planted into trees, and often by offshore 82 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:36,120 Speaker 2: owners or offshore investors. So now this is returning nothing 83 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 2: to New Zealand's economy. 84 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 1: Just back to the beef quickly. I read another thing, 85 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 1: and this is the Brazil story. So Australia and Brazil 86 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 1: big big exporters into America on beef. Where do we 87 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 1: fit into that equation and does somebody like Brazil with 88 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 1: a fifty percent tariff do they bleed business to us? 89 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 2: Look absolutely, As I said, there's a lot happening in 90 00:03:57,440 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 2: the trade space that's in it. They add some dynamics 91 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 2: there Brazil products. I don't think it can sustain the 92 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:06,960 Speaker 2: tariff levels they're at, so that it may divert into 93 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 2: some of our other markets like China. What we know 94 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:12,680 Speaker 2: is the US actually needs lend beef trim, it needs 95 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:16,599 Speaker 2: the product that we send. The challenge for US, I suppose, 96 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:18,600 Speaker 2: is that we're on a different tariff rate to some 97 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 2: others like Australia and Argentina, so that that will impact 98 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 2: our returns and we're forecasted in the US tariff potentially 99 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:28,599 Speaker 2: could take five hundred million dollars of value out of 100 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:32,799 Speaker 2: that market. So you know, there are always risks. But 101 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:35,560 Speaker 2: junerally speaking, this is a really good news story and 102 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:38,160 Speaker 2: it's good for New Zealand. You know, we know that 103 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 2: farmers shouldn't be farmers on average being fifteen went five 104 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:44,719 Speaker 2: million dollars every day in their regional communities, so the 105 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:46,800 Speaker 2: fact that they're making money, it's it's good for all 106 00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 2: of New Zealand. 107 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:50,040 Speaker 1: Fantastic, always good to talk to you, Kate appreciated, Kate Ackland. 108 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:51,839 Speaker 1: It must be good at the Beef and Lamb office, mustn't. 109 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:53,520 Speaker 1: I mean, there must be generally upbeat. There must be 110 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:55,719 Speaker 1: a lot of morning teas and they're feeling good about life. 111 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:59,040 Speaker 2: For more from the mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to 112 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:02,359 Speaker 2: News Talks the from six am weekdays, or follow the 113 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 2: podcast on iHeartRadio.