1 00:00:09,093 --> 00:00:12,693 Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talks EDB. Follow 2 00:00:12,773 --> 00:00:16,933 Speaker 1: this and our Wide Ranger podcasts now on iHeartRadio. It's 3 00:00:17,013 --> 00:00:20,613 Speaker 1: time from all the Attitude, all the opinion, all the information, 4 00:00:20,853 --> 00:00:25,973 Speaker 1: all the debate still used now the lighton Smith podcast 5 00:00:26,213 --> 00:00:27,653 Speaker 1: powered by News Talks EDB. 6 00:00:28,253 --> 00:00:31,173 Speaker 2: Welcome to podcast three hundred and eighteen for March four, 7 00:00:31,293 --> 00:00:34,893 Speaker 2: twenty twenty six. Oh what a difference a few days makes. 8 00:00:35,293 --> 00:00:38,893 Speaker 2: Shortly we're talking to George Treatment, the executive chairman and 9 00:00:38,893 --> 00:00:43,293 Speaker 2: the founder of Geopolitical Futures, with whom we have spoken 10 00:00:43,373 --> 00:00:46,213 Speaker 2: many times over the last three or four decades. I 11 00:00:46,213 --> 00:00:48,133 Speaker 2: want to begin, though, with a commentary from a book 12 00:00:48,333 --> 00:00:52,453 Speaker 2: that most people probably are unaware of, and why would 13 00:00:52,453 --> 00:00:55,013 Speaker 2: You Be was published twenty one years ago in two 14 00:00:55,013 --> 00:00:58,933 Speaker 2: thousand and five. The author is Kenneth Timmerman. The book 15 00:00:59,173 --> 00:01:03,453 Speaker 2: is called Countdown to Crisis Becoming Nuclear Showdown with Iran 16 00:01:04,173 --> 00:01:08,013 Speaker 2: twenty one years ago and under the heading of what 17 00:01:08,133 --> 00:01:12,373 Speaker 2: if if the Ayatolla got the bomb? I'll begin on 18 00:01:12,573 --> 00:01:15,493 Speaker 2: page three, but Iran's race for the bomb is just 19 00:01:15,573 --> 00:01:18,053 Speaker 2: part of the story. This book is about the threat 20 00:01:18,293 --> 00:01:21,693 Speaker 2: from a regime that has vowed death to America since 21 00:01:21,733 --> 00:01:25,893 Speaker 2: its foundation. And regularly announces that it'll turn the Persian 22 00:01:25,893 --> 00:01:29,733 Speaker 2: Gulf into a sea of blood, quote unquote and destroy 23 00:01:29,853 --> 00:01:33,733 Speaker 2: Israel with nuclear missiles. It is a story about capabilities, 24 00:01:34,053 --> 00:01:39,533 Speaker 2: but also about intentions. Iran's clerics did not get out 25 00:01:39,573 --> 00:01:42,853 Speaker 2: of the terror business when they freed the US hostages 26 00:01:42,893 --> 00:01:46,053 Speaker 2: in nineteen eighty one. They merely got better at hiding 27 00:01:46,093 --> 00:01:49,893 Speaker 2: their traces. Since then, they've launched a series of attacks 28 00:01:49,893 --> 00:01:55,373 Speaker 2: on America through proxies and secret intelligence networks. I have drawn, 29 00:01:55,413 --> 00:01:58,853 Speaker 2: says the author. I've drawn on previously classified documents and 30 00:01:58,933 --> 00:02:02,293 Speaker 2: fresh eye witness reports to tell the stories of several 31 00:02:02,293 --> 00:02:05,453 Speaker 2: of these attacks and the Iranian leaders who ordered them. 32 00:02:05,813 --> 00:02:10,613 Speaker 2: Despite clear intelligence showing Iranian government involvement, the United States 33 00:02:10,653 --> 00:02:16,213 Speaker 2: has never never retaliated. I believed this was a deadly mistake. 34 00:02:17,093 --> 00:02:19,973 Speaker 2: Dramatic new evidence presented here for the first time suggests 35 00:02:19,973 --> 00:02:23,453 Speaker 2: that Iran may have been responsible for the destruction of 36 00:02:23,493 --> 00:02:26,933 Speaker 2: TWA Flight eight hundred off the coast of Long Island 37 00:02:27,293 --> 00:02:32,093 Speaker 2: on July seventeen, nineteen ninety six. Multiple warnings of impending 38 00:02:32,133 --> 00:02:36,813 Speaker 2: Iranian terrorist attacks flowed into the US intelligence community beforehand, 39 00:02:37,373 --> 00:02:41,453 Speaker 2: but they were not considered actionable, and so were ignored. 40 00:02:42,213 --> 00:02:46,213 Speaker 2: Similar intelligence information revealed here for the first time shows 41 00:02:46,253 --> 00:02:49,533 Speaker 2: that top Iranian officials were directly involved in the nine 42 00:02:49,573 --> 00:02:52,813 Speaker 2: to eleven plot, meeting with high level al Qayeder operatives 43 00:02:53,173 --> 00:02:59,213 Speaker 2: and providing them with passports, safe haven, intelligence assistance, secure communications, 44 00:02:59,253 --> 00:03:04,613 Speaker 2: and training in explosives and airline hijacking. Many readers will 45 00:03:04,613 --> 00:03:07,493 Speaker 2: demand to know how the United States missed the collaboration 46 00:03:07,613 --> 00:03:11,173 Speaker 2: between l Kaida and Iran. The short answer is we didn't, 47 00:03:12,013 --> 00:03:16,573 Speaker 2: but the conventional wisdom within the intelligence community dictated that 48 00:03:16,613 --> 00:03:21,173 Speaker 2: Iran's clerics could not possibly work together with Osama bin 49 00:03:21,253 --> 00:03:26,973 Speaker 2: Laden because they came from bitterly opposed sects of Islam. 50 00:03:27,973 --> 00:03:33,653 Speaker 2: This short sighted concept had deadly consequences. Another important thread 51 00:03:33,653 --> 00:03:36,533 Speaker 2: in this story is the regime's ruthless elimination of its 52 00:03:36,533 --> 00:03:41,013 Speaker 2: political opponents, those who might challenge the system of absolute 53 00:03:41,093 --> 00:03:44,373 Speaker 2: clerical rule. But murder is just one tool the ruling 54 00:03:44,373 --> 00:03:48,413 Speaker 2: clerics used to disrupt the opposition. As I relate in 55 00:03:48,453 --> 00:03:53,413 Speaker 2: this book, the regime has infiltrated and successfully manipulated virtually 56 00:03:53,493 --> 00:03:57,453 Speaker 2: every opposition group, both at home and in exile, through 57 00:03:57,693 --> 00:04:05,213 Speaker 2: false flag operations, fake reform movements, false promises, and financial inducements. Meanwhile, 58 00:04:05,413 --> 00:04:09,253 Speaker 2: the United States consistently failed to help the opposition to 59 00:04:09,653 --> 00:04:14,093 Speaker 2: organize effectively, yet another failure that can be told. For 60 00:04:14,133 --> 00:04:19,213 Speaker 2: the first time, Iran's ruling clerics realize that their regime 61 00:04:19,373 --> 00:04:23,573 Speaker 2: is vulnerable, especially from within, where two generations of young 62 00:04:23,613 --> 00:04:27,933 Speaker 2: people born since the revolution now thirst for Western style freedoms. 63 00:04:28,453 --> 00:04:31,533 Speaker 2: The Muller's greatest fear is that Iran's youth, helped by 64 00:04:31,573 --> 00:04:35,413 Speaker 2: the United States, will stage a revolt or a referendum 65 00:04:35,613 --> 00:04:38,893 Speaker 2: to usher in secular government. This is one reason that 66 00:04:38,933 --> 00:04:42,053 Speaker 2: they have acted with such determination to slow the march 67 00:04:42,093 --> 00:04:45,933 Speaker 2: of freedom in neighboring Iraq lest it become a poll 68 00:04:46,093 --> 00:04:50,493 Speaker 2: of attraction and an example to Iran's youth. And it 69 00:04:50,613 --> 00:04:53,813 Speaker 2: is why they are desperate to get the bomb, which 70 00:04:53,853 --> 00:04:57,853 Speaker 2: they view as the ultimate insurance policy against an American 71 00:04:58,373 --> 00:05:01,693 Speaker 2: or Israeli attack. Now that sets the story for what 72 00:05:01,773 --> 00:05:04,573 Speaker 2: has broken out recently. There has been much more in between. 73 00:05:04,653 --> 00:05:07,293 Speaker 2: Of course, the book was written twenty one years ago 74 00:05:07,653 --> 00:05:10,693 Speaker 2: and a lot of war has passed under that bridge. Now, 75 00:05:10,933 --> 00:05:13,773 Speaker 2: having set the stage shortly, we'll talk to the executive 76 00:05:13,813 --> 00:05:26,213 Speaker 2: chairman and the founder of Geopolitical Futures, George Treatment Buckerlan 77 00:05:26,413 --> 00:05:29,693 Speaker 2: is a natural oral vaccine in a tablet form called 78 00:05:29,773 --> 00:05:33,813 Speaker 2: Bacterial Life Sate. 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Buccolan can be taken throughout 88 00:06:03,733 --> 00:06:06,813 Speaker 2: the cold season, over winter or all year round. And 89 00:06:06,933 --> 00:06:10,893 Speaker 2: remember Buckelan is not intense as an alternative to influenza vaccination, 90 00:06:11,373 --> 00:06:14,253 Speaker 2: but may be used along with the flu vaccination for 91 00:06:14,613 --> 00:06:17,893 Speaker 2: added protection. And keep in mind that millions of doses 92 00:06:17,933 --> 00:06:21,213 Speaker 2: have been taken by Kiwi's for over fifty years. Only 93 00:06:21,253 --> 00:06:25,013 Speaker 2: available from your pharmacist. Always read the label and users 94 00:06:25,013 --> 00:06:29,013 Speaker 2: directed and see your doctor if systems persist. Farmer Broker Auckland, 95 00:06:49,013 --> 00:06:52,253 Speaker 2: George Friedman, Welcome back to the Laten Smith podcast. Good 96 00:06:52,253 --> 00:06:55,053 Speaker 2: to have you here, Good to be here, except you 97 00:06:55,093 --> 00:06:57,933 Speaker 2: wouldn't think it was good because of the purpose of it. 98 00:06:57,973 --> 00:07:01,453 Speaker 2: I would imagine your take at this at the beginning 99 00:07:01,533 --> 00:07:05,453 Speaker 2: to kick us off, your take on how this came about, 100 00:07:05,573 --> 00:07:06,453 Speaker 2: why it's happened. 101 00:07:07,293 --> 00:07:10,693 Speaker 3: Well, you begin with the fact that Trump came into 102 00:07:10,773 --> 00:07:16,533 Speaker 3: office obsessed with the nuclear program in Iran. You'll remember 103 00:07:16,613 --> 00:07:21,573 Speaker 3: that he already attacked the nuclear program. He didn't destroy 104 00:07:21,613 --> 00:07:26,693 Speaker 3: it completely, but he heard it profoundly. Remember also that 105 00:07:27,533 --> 00:07:31,133 Speaker 3: preceding the war, there was an extended negotiation between the 106 00:07:31,213 --> 00:07:34,413 Speaker 3: United States and Iran where the United States was insisting 107 00:07:34,493 --> 00:07:39,813 Speaker 3: that Iran stopped its nuclear program and in turn offering 108 00:07:39,933 --> 00:07:42,333 Speaker 3: certain things to the Iranians that they would do that 109 00:07:43,133 --> 00:07:48,293 Speaker 3: the Iranians refused. Therefore, the question here is why are 110 00:07:48,333 --> 00:07:51,893 Speaker 3: we so concerned about that nuclear program? And there's a 111 00:07:51,933 --> 00:07:56,133 Speaker 3: good reason right now. Inside of Iran there are groups 112 00:07:56,613 --> 00:08:00,133 Speaker 3: like the remnants of al Qaeda and other groups like 113 00:08:00,213 --> 00:08:03,933 Speaker 3: Hezbollah and other Islamic terrorist groups will called him. 114 00:08:04,973 --> 00:08:07,093 Speaker 4: Al Qaeda was the group that. 115 00:08:08,573 --> 00:08:11,533 Speaker 3: Took the nine to eleven attack on the United States, 116 00:08:12,053 --> 00:08:17,453 Speaker 3: where suicide bombers attacked the World Trade Center, destroying it 117 00:08:17,893 --> 00:08:21,773 Speaker 3: and causing many casualties. That group is not at the 118 00:08:21,853 --> 00:08:26,893 Speaker 3: moment very powerful, but it indicates something about Iran that 119 00:08:26,973 --> 00:08:30,093 Speaker 3: it supports that group, it has given it a place 120 00:08:30,133 --> 00:08:34,293 Speaker 3: to be in Iran, and that it is supporting many 121 00:08:34,493 --> 00:08:38,853 Speaker 3: of the Islamist groups that we would call terrorists in 122 00:08:38,893 --> 00:08:42,893 Speaker 3: the region. So you consider that there was such a 123 00:08:42,933 --> 00:08:45,893 Speaker 3: thing as nine to eleven, it would not be unlikely. 124 00:08:46,013 --> 00:08:49,333 Speaker 3: Although I don't know what Trump is thinking, and those 125 00:08:49,333 --> 00:08:52,973 Speaker 3: people who think they know it don't, but I would 126 00:08:53,053 --> 00:08:59,533 Speaker 3: think that Trump's obsession with the nuclear program of Iran 127 00:08:59,853 --> 00:09:03,693 Speaker 3: had something to do with the fear of a nuclear 128 00:09:04,573 --> 00:09:08,293 Speaker 3: nine to eleven. So these were the groups that they're supporting, 129 00:09:08,413 --> 00:09:11,013 Speaker 3: They are the groups that are there. This was a 130 00:09:11,053 --> 00:09:18,213 Speaker 3: non nuclear catastrophe. Imagine if Iran got a nuclear weapon, 131 00:09:18,973 --> 00:09:23,533 Speaker 3: placed it on a board on a boat, that boat 132 00:09:23,533 --> 00:09:26,813 Speaker 3: would be flying a foreign flag who knows who, and 133 00:09:26,893 --> 00:09:31,813 Speaker 3: would sail into York Harbor detonating a nuclear weapon. Given 134 00:09:31,853 --> 00:09:35,933 Speaker 3: the people, the groups that are in Iran, given the 135 00:09:35,973 --> 00:09:40,693 Speaker 3: groups that are supported heavily by the Iranian government, he 136 00:09:40,733 --> 00:09:43,613 Speaker 3: looked at the nuclear program obsessively. 137 00:09:44,413 --> 00:09:45,213 Speaker 4: He attacked it. 138 00:09:45,253 --> 00:09:50,373 Speaker 3: First, then went into deep negotiations, and when those negotiations failed, 139 00:09:51,293 --> 00:09:54,293 Speaker 3: that's when the war began. So from my point of view, 140 00:09:54,893 --> 00:09:58,213 Speaker 3: not knowing his mind, what I see is that obsession 141 00:09:58,733 --> 00:10:04,453 Speaker 3: not totally unreasonable with the possibility of a nuclear nine 142 00:10:04,493 --> 00:10:11,773 Speaker 3: to eleven, and what he was doing was negotiating, likely 143 00:10:11,813 --> 00:10:16,053 Speaker 3: in good faith, on this with the Iranians. When it 144 00:10:16,133 --> 00:10:19,333 Speaker 3: turned out that the Iranians would not, under any circumstances 145 00:10:19,373 --> 00:10:24,893 Speaker 3: agree to ending their nuclear development program, he was forced 146 00:10:24,933 --> 00:10:31,013 Speaker 3: to face a decision either allow the nuclear capability to 147 00:10:31,013 --> 00:10:35,653 Speaker 3: develop as it would and then live with it as 148 00:10:35,693 --> 00:10:41,613 Speaker 3: we'd have to, or try to destroy that system. Now 149 00:10:41,613 --> 00:10:43,733 Speaker 3: we failed at his first attempt, that was one of 150 00:10:43,773 --> 00:10:46,653 Speaker 3: the first things he did as presidency was to attack 151 00:10:46,693 --> 00:10:51,813 Speaker 3: the nuclear capability, So this time he decided to engage 152 00:10:51,893 --> 00:10:54,533 Speaker 3: in war to destroy. 153 00:10:54,493 --> 00:10:56,933 Speaker 4: The government that was plenty to do this. 154 00:10:58,173 --> 00:11:00,773 Speaker 3: The reason I'd say this is not because he's ever 155 00:11:00,853 --> 00:11:04,333 Speaker 3: said it, nor is it a popularly held view. But 156 00:11:04,493 --> 00:11:09,253 Speaker 3: get in his obsession reasonable would the nuclear program that 157 00:11:09,333 --> 00:11:14,533 Speaker 3: they had, given that he engaged in negotiations with the Iranians. 158 00:11:14,973 --> 00:11:18,853 Speaker 3: Given that those negotiations failed recently, the decision to go 159 00:11:18,893 --> 00:11:22,413 Speaker 3: to war had to do a great deal. With the 160 00:11:22,493 --> 00:11:24,533 Speaker 3: nuclear possibilities around. 161 00:11:24,933 --> 00:11:26,613 Speaker 2: That would be a valid reason to go to war. 162 00:11:26,733 --> 00:11:30,093 Speaker 3: Yes, I would think so. I mean nine to eleven 163 00:11:30,573 --> 00:11:33,733 Speaker 3: was carried out by the kinds of groups, particularly the 164 00:11:33,773 --> 00:11:36,413 Speaker 3: one group that carried out Al Qaeda is in Iran 165 00:11:37,413 --> 00:11:39,653 Speaker 3: at this time much weaker, not likely to be the 166 00:11:39,693 --> 00:11:43,173 Speaker 3: one to do it, and certainly the idea that if 167 00:11:43,213 --> 00:11:45,413 Speaker 3: they obtained a nuclear weapon, that would be a direct 168 00:11:45,413 --> 00:11:47,333 Speaker 3: threat against the United States. And one of the things 169 00:11:47,373 --> 00:11:51,173 Speaker 3: he said yesterday was interesting. He said, it's a threat 170 00:11:51,213 --> 00:11:55,693 Speaker 3: to Israel, but it's also a threat to the United States. Now, 171 00:11:55,693 --> 00:11:57,413 Speaker 3: how could it be a threat to the United States? 172 00:11:57,453 --> 00:12:02,253 Speaker 3: They probably don't have ICBMs. But I think that somewhere 173 00:12:02,333 --> 00:12:06,533 Speaker 3: in his thinking, possibly at the top of it, out 174 00:12:06,533 --> 00:12:10,693 Speaker 3: of it, there is this idea that this is the 175 00:12:10,933 --> 00:12:15,613 Speaker 3: group that launched a nine to eleven suicide attack. What 176 00:12:15,773 --> 00:12:19,733 Speaker 3: if they decided to do it again. It's unlikely that sake, 177 00:12:20,693 --> 00:12:24,053 Speaker 3: but it had happened. If it are probable, it would 178 00:12:24,053 --> 00:12:28,093 Speaker 3: be catastrophic. Therefore, when we take a look at all 179 00:12:28,133 --> 00:12:31,293 Speaker 3: the talks that have had his attempt to destroy the 180 00:12:31,373 --> 00:12:35,773 Speaker 3: nuclear program, we could suddenly find a rational reason. 181 00:12:36,573 --> 00:12:39,613 Speaker 4: Why he had to act as he did. I may 182 00:12:39,653 --> 00:12:42,013 Speaker 4: be wrong, but that's how I read it. 183 00:12:42,373 --> 00:12:44,853 Speaker 2: How many different ways are there of reading it. I mean, 184 00:12:45,013 --> 00:12:47,733 Speaker 2: that's a pluck out of the air number. I know, 185 00:12:48,333 --> 00:12:54,573 Speaker 2: but there have been multiple interpretations of how and why 186 00:12:54,733 --> 00:12:59,333 Speaker 2: and all the associated questions. How many groups are there 187 00:12:59,613 --> 00:13:03,613 Speaker 2: in Iran that you talk about, al Qaeda being one 188 00:13:03,653 --> 00:13:07,213 Speaker 2: of them. 189 00:13:05,133 --> 00:13:08,533 Speaker 3: And not the most important by any means, but there 190 00:13:08,573 --> 00:13:14,973 Speaker 3: is Hesbolah. Hesbola is a major military force in the region. 191 00:13:15,773 --> 00:13:18,573 Speaker 3: It also has the same basic principles as al Qaeda, 192 00:13:18,693 --> 00:13:22,933 Speaker 3: which was the attacker. And Hesbelah is primarily supported by 193 00:13:22,973 --> 00:13:26,293 Speaker 3: the Iranians with money, and they're all over the Middle East. 194 00:13:27,173 --> 00:13:31,653 Speaker 3: They're in Lebanon, for example. Today the United States began 195 00:13:32,573 --> 00:13:39,013 Speaker 3: striking at Lebanon, where Hesbolah is stationed as well. So 196 00:13:39,413 --> 00:13:41,933 Speaker 3: when we take a look at the situation, there are 197 00:13:41,973 --> 00:13:45,973 Speaker 3: two explanations. The prominent one is that he's irrational. He 198 00:13:46,373 --> 00:13:48,773 Speaker 3: randomly does things that you can't predict him, and you 199 00:13:48,773 --> 00:13:52,733 Speaker 3: can't understand him. That may well be true. Mine is 200 00:13:53,213 --> 00:13:55,733 Speaker 3: that when I take a look at the map, when 201 00:13:55,773 --> 00:13:57,973 Speaker 3: I take a look at the world, I'm really worried 202 00:13:57,973 --> 00:14:02,293 Speaker 3: about a nuclear dinal eleven, and I'm not sure that 203 00:14:02,493 --> 00:14:09,173 Speaker 3: he isn't as well, given an obsession with the nuclear weapons, 204 00:14:09,413 --> 00:14:12,613 Speaker 3: Given that he failed to negotiate an end, and I 205 00:14:12,613 --> 00:14:16,493 Speaker 3: think he also saw an opening because of the various 206 00:14:17,293 --> 00:14:23,293 Speaker 3: genuine uprising against the current Iranian government in the streets 207 00:14:23,533 --> 00:14:27,573 Speaker 3: that was brutally suppressed by that government. So when he 208 00:14:27,613 --> 00:14:31,213 Speaker 3: looked at it, he called immediately for the people to 209 00:14:31,253 --> 00:14:34,333 Speaker 3: overthrow the government. I think he was motivated by the 210 00:14:34,373 --> 00:14:37,653 Speaker 3: idea that they could or would, and that's where we 211 00:14:37,693 --> 00:14:41,973 Speaker 3: stand right now. But the two schools of thought are 212 00:14:42,093 --> 00:14:45,493 Speaker 3: that he really doesn't know what he's doing. The other 213 00:14:45,813 --> 00:14:49,733 Speaker 3: is that he does, and there are people who would 214 00:14:49,773 --> 00:14:52,773 Speaker 3: explain it differently in that school. But this is my 215 00:14:52,853 --> 00:14:56,333 Speaker 3: explanation of why he came into office so concerned about 216 00:14:56,333 --> 00:14:57,533 Speaker 3: that nuclear program. 217 00:14:57,773 --> 00:15:01,253 Speaker 2: Does it matter to you who's right with regard to 218 00:15:01,573 --> 00:15:03,253 Speaker 2: whether he knows what he's doing. 219 00:15:04,253 --> 00:15:09,533 Speaker 3: Well, it's very easy to dismiss him as crazy, or 220 00:15:09,653 --> 00:15:13,613 Speaker 3: dismiss him as stupid, or dismiss him in many different ways. 221 00:15:14,213 --> 00:15:19,213 Speaker 3: But I'm a believer in democracy. He was elected by 222 00:15:19,253 --> 00:15:22,533 Speaker 3: the Constitution of the United States, and if you take 223 00:15:22,573 --> 00:15:25,413 Speaker 3: that assumption that he's a moron, then you have to 224 00:15:25,453 --> 00:15:25,933 Speaker 3: assume the. 225 00:15:25,893 --> 00:15:27,253 Speaker 4: American voters are morons. 226 00:15:28,213 --> 00:15:30,213 Speaker 3: And I'm kind of loyal to my country and I'd 227 00:15:30,293 --> 00:15:32,013 Speaker 3: rather not think that way, because I don't think that. 228 00:15:33,453 --> 00:15:37,213 Speaker 3: There were various reasons that he was elected, and I 229 00:15:37,253 --> 00:15:41,453 Speaker 3: think one of them may well have been his attitude 230 00:15:41,533 --> 00:15:44,493 Speaker 3: to how to treat the rest of the world, and 231 00:15:44,573 --> 00:15:49,053 Speaker 3: this was a particularly telling thing, an important thing, far 232 00:15:49,133 --> 00:15:52,893 Speaker 3: more important than NATO, far more important than Ukraine. This 233 00:15:53,093 --> 00:15:55,733 Speaker 3: was something that he focused it on, and I think 234 00:15:55,813 --> 00:15:59,133 Speaker 3: that was if he did that, I support him in 235 00:15:59,173 --> 00:16:00,053 Speaker 3: making a decision. 236 00:16:01,333 --> 00:16:05,413 Speaker 2: There are any number of theories, of course in existence. 237 00:16:05,773 --> 00:16:07,773 Speaker 2: You've only got to spend a little time on the 238 00:16:07,853 --> 00:16:10,813 Speaker 2: NPT and give around and find out what they are 239 00:16:10,853 --> 00:16:13,853 Speaker 2: and who's behind them. I want to quote you something 240 00:16:13,853 --> 00:16:19,053 Speaker 2: from Victor Davis Hanson, who who wrote an article Trump's 241 00:16:19,093 --> 00:16:22,933 Speaker 2: way of war. But it begins this way. Trump's doctrine 242 00:16:23,013 --> 00:16:27,253 Speaker 2: is simple, strike first at the guilty, strike hard from AFAR, 243 00:16:27,933 --> 00:16:33,173 Speaker 2: skip the nation building, and end wars on America's terms. 244 00:16:33,813 --> 00:16:36,253 Speaker 2: Does that sound like a reasonable approach. 245 00:16:36,813 --> 00:16:42,253 Speaker 3: Well, yes, except for the content of why why was 246 00:16:42,973 --> 00:16:46,213 Speaker 3: Iran a threat? Why go to war with it? Not 247 00:16:46,413 --> 00:16:50,613 Speaker 3: just this is how you should go to war, which 248 00:16:50,733 --> 00:16:57,253 Speaker 3: is without limits, designed to win achieve your goals. What 249 00:16:57,333 --> 00:17:00,773 Speaker 3: I'm talking about is completely compatible with what he said, 250 00:17:01,573 --> 00:17:04,653 Speaker 3: save that I'm trying to explain to myself and to 251 00:17:04,733 --> 00:17:08,933 Speaker 3: you why I think he was forced to decide to 252 00:17:08,973 --> 00:17:12,333 Speaker 3: go to war and then talk about how he executed 253 00:17:12,373 --> 00:17:14,893 Speaker 3: the war, because I agree that if you've got to 254 00:17:14,893 --> 00:17:17,413 Speaker 3: go to war, go to war, and if you've got 255 00:17:17,453 --> 00:17:21,693 Speaker 3: to talk, talk, The fact of the matter was he 256 00:17:22,133 --> 00:17:26,653 Speaker 3: had extensive discussions with the Iranians on this issue and 257 00:17:26,693 --> 00:17:27,493 Speaker 3: he was rebuffed. 258 00:17:27,933 --> 00:17:28,853 Speaker 4: Therefore he acted. 259 00:17:29,373 --> 00:17:33,533 Speaker 2: This gave me the opportunity of pulling some books off 260 00:17:33,533 --> 00:17:39,213 Speaker 2: the shelves, America's Secret War, which was published in two 261 00:17:39,253 --> 00:17:47,253 Speaker 2: thousand and four or five. America's Secret War was one 262 00:17:47,293 --> 00:17:50,693 Speaker 2: of them. The Next one hundred Years published in two 263 00:17:50,733 --> 00:17:55,173 Speaker 2: thousand and nine. And then you've got The Storm Before 264 00:17:55,213 --> 00:18:00,573 Speaker 2: to Come, your latest book, which was I think prolific 265 00:18:01,013 --> 00:18:04,933 Speaker 2: on its release and unrecognized thanks to COVID, or unrecognized 266 00:18:04,973 --> 00:18:07,373 Speaker 2: the way it should have been thanks to COVID. This 267 00:18:08,613 --> 00:18:12,413 Speaker 2: current incident, this scenario that we confronted with, does that 268 00:18:12,413 --> 00:18:15,933 Speaker 2: fit in with your theories in the Storm before the Calm? 269 00:18:16,613 --> 00:18:20,013 Speaker 3: The Storm before the Calm was about the internal processes 270 00:18:20,053 --> 00:18:20,893 Speaker 3: in the United States. 271 00:18:21,533 --> 00:18:22,573 Speaker 4: Simply put, the. 272 00:18:22,613 --> 00:18:27,293 Speaker 3: United States has a fifty year social and economic process 273 00:18:27,533 --> 00:18:31,333 Speaker 3: where it goes in the disaster fuel into a crisis, 274 00:18:31,333 --> 00:18:35,013 Speaker 3: a storm, and the last one occurred in the nineteen seventies. 275 00:18:35,053 --> 00:18:39,213 Speaker 3: We remember in nineteen seventies with Richard Nixon deciding to 276 00:18:40,013 --> 00:18:45,093 Speaker 3: end the gold standard, freeze, wages, the Iran War, violence 277 00:18:45,133 --> 00:18:48,333 Speaker 3: all over the place. Okay, now we're fifty years later. 278 00:18:49,053 --> 00:18:53,253 Speaker 3: There's also an eighty year cycle of changing the institutions 279 00:18:53,293 --> 00:18:58,613 Speaker 3: of the United States. So we were founded in eight 280 00:18:58,973 --> 00:19:02,453 Speaker 3: seventeen seventy six. Eighty years later there was a Civil 281 00:19:02,573 --> 00:19:07,573 Speaker 3: War that established the federal government to being controlled of 282 00:19:07,613 --> 00:19:12,613 Speaker 3: the states. After that there was the Great Depression, in 283 00:19:12,653 --> 00:19:16,133 Speaker 3: which the federal government was created as it is now 284 00:19:16,653 --> 00:19:21,133 Speaker 3: now eighty years later. That federal government, I argued, was obsolete, 285 00:19:22,093 --> 00:19:25,933 Speaker 3: unable to govern because of its size, its fragmentation, and 286 00:19:25,973 --> 00:19:29,453 Speaker 3: so on. So what I predicted was that during the 287 00:19:29,853 --> 00:19:33,333 Speaker 3: twenty twenties, and I preated that in the next hundred years, well, 288 00:19:33,733 --> 00:19:37,373 Speaker 3: we would enter a period of storm. We entered that 289 00:19:37,413 --> 00:19:41,733 Speaker 3: period of storm, because to invent something new, you first 290 00:19:41,773 --> 00:19:45,253 Speaker 3: have to destroy the old. And we go through two 291 00:19:45,293 --> 00:19:48,293 Speaker 3: stages in these crises. The first is a storm that 292 00:19:48,333 --> 00:19:51,573 Speaker 3: we're in the middle of right now, Okay, And in 293 00:19:51,613 --> 00:19:55,653 Speaker 3: that storm, it feels like the United States is on 294 00:19:55,693 --> 00:19:59,013 Speaker 3: the verge of collapse. Going back and past, you can 295 00:19:59,053 --> 00:20:03,773 Speaker 3: see that both of these cycles in twenty into twenty 296 00:20:03,773 --> 00:20:09,133 Speaker 3: twenty thirty they peaked. This was really the first time 297 00:20:09,213 --> 00:20:11,773 Speaker 3: that they repeat at the same time, so it was 298 00:20:11,813 --> 00:20:16,573 Speaker 3: a more intensive crisis than normally. The idea of foreign 299 00:20:16,613 --> 00:20:21,013 Speaker 3: policy doesn't really go into this, except for example, fifty 300 00:20:21,093 --> 00:20:24,253 Speaker 3: years ago with the Vietnam War. The country was torn 301 00:20:24,293 --> 00:20:28,733 Speaker 3: apart between the pro war and anti war factions, and 302 00:20:28,893 --> 00:20:32,053 Speaker 3: you could not be on both sides, and each side 303 00:20:32,093 --> 00:20:35,613 Speaker 3: hated the other. So what I predicted was. 304 00:20:37,653 --> 00:20:38,253 Speaker 4: For the calm. 305 00:20:38,973 --> 00:20:42,293 Speaker 3: I said the twenty twenty four election was going to 306 00:20:42,413 --> 00:20:47,813 Speaker 3: open up the crisis full time. This would be the storm, 307 00:20:48,093 --> 00:20:51,893 Speaker 3: and after the storm tore things down, new things will 308 00:20:51,933 --> 00:20:54,773 Speaker 3: be built. And this is our model. We ran that 309 00:20:54,893 --> 00:20:58,613 Speaker 3: we are in an invented country. 310 00:20:57,253 --> 00:20:59,693 Speaker 4: And we reinvent ourselves periodically. 311 00:21:00,333 --> 00:21:02,653 Speaker 3: I don't know why the cycles fit every year, where 312 00:21:02,653 --> 00:21:05,813 Speaker 3: I could go back to the beginning how it works. 313 00:21:06,333 --> 00:21:10,093 Speaker 3: So when I look at that, that's the internals. This 314 00:21:10,173 --> 00:21:13,213 Speaker 3: is an external thing that had little to do with 315 00:21:13,253 --> 00:21:17,973 Speaker 3: the cycles. It just makes a storm more intense because 316 00:21:18,013 --> 00:21:20,293 Speaker 3: at this point, anything that a president would do in 317 00:21:20,373 --> 00:21:24,093 Speaker 3: regardless who would be president, he'd be worried about nine 318 00:21:24,133 --> 00:21:26,773 Speaker 3: to eleven, he'd be worried about the Europeans. 319 00:21:26,253 --> 00:21:27,173 Speaker 4: And so on and so forth. 320 00:21:27,573 --> 00:21:31,533 Speaker 3: He'd be changing things, and he would be held in 321 00:21:31,573 --> 00:21:35,533 Speaker 3: contempt because one of the principles of this is at 322 00:21:35,573 --> 00:21:40,973 Speaker 3: this point American society divides, each side has total contempt 323 00:21:40,973 --> 00:21:41,413 Speaker 3: for the other. 324 00:21:42,413 --> 00:21:43,573 Speaker 2: Okay, that's true. 325 00:21:43,813 --> 00:21:46,853 Speaker 4: Go back to the seventies and you'll see it. 326 00:21:47,333 --> 00:21:52,413 Speaker 3: And so the storm is what we're in, but historically 327 00:21:52,453 --> 00:21:54,853 Speaker 3: we have succeeded in coming out much stronger and better 328 00:21:54,933 --> 00:21:55,333 Speaker 3: for it. 329 00:21:57,373 --> 00:22:00,413 Speaker 2: Your suggestion was that the twenty eighth election will be 330 00:22:01,293 --> 00:22:02,213 Speaker 2: the sorting out point. 331 00:22:03,293 --> 00:22:04,493 Speaker 4: Yes, that's what I said. 332 00:22:04,533 --> 00:22:08,653 Speaker 3: In the next time of years, then I said, twenty 333 00:22:08,653 --> 00:22:10,853 Speaker 3: twenty four election is going to be the start of 334 00:22:10,893 --> 00:22:14,533 Speaker 3: the storm, and then in twenty twenty eight we'll kind 335 00:22:14,533 --> 00:22:17,573 Speaker 3: of get to it. So one of the ways to 336 00:22:17,613 --> 00:22:19,853 Speaker 3: look at this is that we have about two more 337 00:22:19,933 --> 00:22:25,013 Speaker 3: years of internal unrest to be facing until we work 338 00:22:25,053 --> 00:22:30,093 Speaker 3: out what happens. And then just as Ronald Reagan took 339 00:22:30,133 --> 00:22:34,253 Speaker 3: over the presidency and calmed the situation to a great 340 00:22:34,293 --> 00:22:37,773 Speaker 3: extent and created this new period we're in, so to 341 00:22:38,413 --> 00:22:41,053 Speaker 3: Roosevelt did so on and so forth. 342 00:22:41,853 --> 00:22:48,893 Speaker 4: But the question of Iran is outside this model. This 343 00:22:48,933 --> 00:22:49,613 Speaker 4: would be. 344 00:22:51,133 --> 00:22:55,733 Speaker 3: Happening under any circumstances. But given that it's happening now. 345 00:22:56,613 --> 00:23:01,293 Speaker 3: The people who dislike the President Trump, I hold him 346 00:23:01,293 --> 00:23:08,573 Speaker 3: in contempt, are upholled at what he does everywhere. At 347 00:23:08,573 --> 00:23:11,133 Speaker 3: the same time in the supporters that it would leak 348 00:23:11,373 --> 00:23:14,853 Speaker 3: a little bit, that's normal worship him in many ways. 349 00:23:15,293 --> 00:23:18,733 Speaker 3: So it's it's us and we're in not New Zealand. 350 00:23:19,173 --> 00:23:22,253 Speaker 2: And the New Zealand is not you. Certainly, look, I 351 00:23:22,293 --> 00:23:25,493 Speaker 2: want to I want to drag in a couple of 352 00:23:26,253 --> 00:23:32,453 Speaker 2: media stories. Do you have Do you have any thoughts 353 00:23:32,573 --> 00:23:38,653 Speaker 2: on the on the belief that smartphones, and I'm talking 354 00:23:38,693 --> 00:23:44,373 Speaker 2: specifically Apple phones, because that's what I've got listening to 355 00:23:44,413 --> 00:23:50,413 Speaker 2: your conversation and respond accordingly, particularly with advertising, I don't know. 356 00:23:50,413 --> 00:23:54,013 Speaker 3: That I wouldn't be surprised though it was true. I 357 00:23:54,013 --> 00:23:57,413 Speaker 3: couldn't care less who heard my conversations because they need 358 00:23:57,493 --> 00:23:59,253 Speaker 3: to hear about how I disliked Apple. 359 00:24:00,013 --> 00:24:02,613 Speaker 2: So it's fine, but there are but there are plenty 360 00:24:02,613 --> 00:24:04,893 Speaker 2: of people who do care. And the reason I the 361 00:24:04,933 --> 00:24:07,493 Speaker 2: reason I asked you that question is because as you 362 00:24:07,653 --> 00:24:14,933 Speaker 2: started speaking a moment ago. This came up on my phone. 363 00:24:15,453 --> 00:24:17,933 Speaker 2: I wasn't touching it, but it's in front of me 364 00:24:18,373 --> 00:24:22,653 Speaker 2: and we're using it to record through no strategy, no deterrence. 365 00:24:22,733 --> 00:24:27,933 Speaker 2: What is Trump's endgame? This from Paul Kelly from The Australian. 366 00:24:28,533 --> 00:24:32,613 Speaker 2: Donald Trump has a contemporary's presidential predecessors, seeing himself as 367 00:24:32,653 --> 00:24:35,453 Speaker 2: a powerbreaker for the ages. With his attack on Iran, 368 00:24:35,573 --> 00:24:39,373 Speaker 2: he now aspires to a new method of revolution, revolution 369 00:24:39,533 --> 00:24:43,053 Speaker 2: by aerial bombing. There is no textbook for this, just 370 00:24:43,213 --> 00:24:48,253 Speaker 2: Trump's genius. So what is Trump's endgame? Is the question 371 00:24:48,453 --> 00:24:51,573 Speaker 2: he's asking. So would you care to address him? 372 00:24:52,213 --> 00:24:55,613 Speaker 3: Well, sir, From the beginning, that's nonsense. There's Trump's invention. 373 00:24:56,373 --> 00:25:00,173 Speaker 3: During the Vietnam War, we continually bomb Hanoi hoping that 374 00:25:00,213 --> 00:25:05,133 Speaker 3: they would capitulate. Okay, So the idea that this is 375 00:25:05,173 --> 00:25:09,293 Speaker 3: a unique event in history of warfare, you know, bombing 376 00:25:09,333 --> 00:25:13,213 Speaker 3: the other education forgets what the Germans did to London 377 00:25:13,293 --> 00:25:16,933 Speaker 3: and so on and so forth. So putting that aside, 378 00:25:17,133 --> 00:25:22,053 Speaker 3: you know, the question is what is his intention if 379 00:25:22,053 --> 00:25:27,653 Speaker 3: we simply take away this issue of what's going on 380 00:25:27,813 --> 00:25:33,253 Speaker 3: right now in Iran? He has two fundamental principles in 381 00:25:33,333 --> 00:25:38,733 Speaker 3: terms of foreign policy, one, reducing our presence in the 382 00:25:38,773 --> 00:25:43,293 Speaker 3: Eastern hemisphere and focused in the Western hemisphere. Second, however, 383 00:25:43,373 --> 00:25:47,333 Speaker 3: not ignoring threats from the Eastern Hemisphere that might occur 384 00:25:48,253 --> 00:25:52,253 Speaker 3: and dealing with them swiftly. Now, when you take a 385 00:25:52,293 --> 00:25:55,733 Speaker 3: look at the fundamental principle, he wants to get away 386 00:25:55,853 --> 00:25:59,093 Speaker 3: from dealing with the Russians. Let the Europeans deal with them. 387 00:25:59,133 --> 00:26:03,933 Speaker 3: The Russians have shown they're militarily incompetent in Ukraine. So 388 00:26:04,213 --> 00:26:10,053 Speaker 3: given that his view here is that it's fundamentally important 389 00:26:10,293 --> 00:26:15,653 Speaker 3: to deal with the events in Iran. Now, he doesn't 390 00:26:15,693 --> 00:26:19,853 Speaker 3: explain very well why this is fundamental. I suspect in 391 00:26:19,933 --> 00:26:25,373 Speaker 3: part he's trying to terrorize terrify the American public. But 392 00:26:25,733 --> 00:26:29,173 Speaker 3: if you, for a moment are willing to concede that 393 00:26:29,213 --> 00:26:34,773 Speaker 3: he's not a moron, then you might try to understand 394 00:26:34,893 --> 00:26:39,013 Speaker 3: why he doesn't want the Iranians to have a nuclear program. 395 00:26:39,293 --> 00:26:42,933 Speaker 3: I don't like him much, I don't like his personality 396 00:26:42,973 --> 00:26:47,973 Speaker 3: and various things, but I would trust that any president 397 00:26:48,093 --> 00:26:51,573 Speaker 3: under the circumstances that would see a country like Iran 398 00:26:51,733 --> 00:26:55,813 Speaker 3: with al Qaeda being under his guidance. With Hezbola, there 399 00:26:56,333 --> 00:27:00,773 Speaker 3: developing nuclear weapons would have some concerns. They would say, 400 00:27:00,813 --> 00:27:02,533 Speaker 3: why did you go to war? Well, he didn't go 401 00:27:02,613 --> 00:27:07,493 Speaker 3: to war. He had long negotiations with the Iranians offering 402 00:27:07,573 --> 00:27:11,573 Speaker 3: many things. So this is not a sudden burst into warfare. 403 00:27:12,533 --> 00:27:15,853 Speaker 3: This is the end of a extended conversation between the 404 00:27:15,933 --> 00:27:19,733 Speaker 3: United States and Iran where the Iranians refuse to get 405 00:27:20,293 --> 00:27:22,653 Speaker 3: let go of this the clear program, and therefore the 406 00:27:22,773 --> 00:27:25,973 Speaker 3: fundamental question should be why did they refuse to do 407 00:27:26,053 --> 00:27:30,333 Speaker 3: that when this didn't have to happen. So when I 408 00:27:30,373 --> 00:27:33,493 Speaker 3: look at the situation there, other people will look at 409 00:27:33,533 --> 00:27:37,533 Speaker 3: it differently. I see a situation where there is a 410 00:27:37,693 --> 00:27:43,613 Speaker 3: low probability danger that has a catastrophic outcome if it materializes. 411 00:27:44,413 --> 00:27:46,573 Speaker 3: And as a president of the United States, his job 412 00:27:46,693 --> 00:27:47,493 Speaker 3: is to protect a nation. 413 00:27:48,053 --> 00:27:51,613 Speaker 2: So you come in at the low end. I come 414 00:27:51,653 --> 00:27:57,693 Speaker 2: in much higher than that, because I think that is 415 00:27:57,733 --> 00:28:01,253 Speaker 2: a serious threat from an organization, well, from a country 416 00:28:02,813 --> 00:28:06,333 Speaker 2: or a government, call them what you want. That has 417 00:28:06,413 --> 00:28:11,053 Speaker 2: had the elimination of Israel on its books for as 418 00:28:11,093 --> 00:28:17,053 Speaker 2: long as I can remember, and the second most most 419 00:28:17,093 --> 00:28:21,453 Speaker 2: popular target is the United States, and it's death to America, 420 00:28:21,533 --> 00:28:26,613 Speaker 2: death to Israel. Now you can't tell me that this 421 00:28:26,813 --> 00:28:32,013 Speaker 2: wasn't a serious threat under the regime as it's been 422 00:28:32,293 --> 00:28:36,733 Speaker 2: to date and is likely to continue unless there is 423 00:28:36,813 --> 00:28:43,173 Speaker 2: a victory of shall we say, magnificent effect out of 424 00:28:43,173 --> 00:28:44,973 Speaker 2: this squabble this war. 425 00:28:46,533 --> 00:28:49,613 Speaker 3: Well, from my point of view, even if it wasn't 426 00:28:49,693 --> 00:28:51,613 Speaker 3: such a major threat, and I grew with you that 427 00:28:51,693 --> 00:28:57,373 Speaker 3: it was, the possibility of being wrong had such catastrophic 428 00:28:58,213 --> 00:29:02,253 Speaker 3: effects that even if it was an unlikely thing, it 429 00:29:02,293 --> 00:29:05,853 Speaker 3: should have been handled. And again I want to emphasize 430 00:29:06,253 --> 00:29:08,573 Speaker 3: that he did not come out of nowhere on this. 431 00:29:10,133 --> 00:29:13,893 Speaker 3: He came out of this after negotiations were broken off 432 00:29:14,173 --> 00:29:19,093 Speaker 3: by the Iranians. And therefore I look at the possible 433 00:29:19,133 --> 00:29:23,133 Speaker 3: outcome and however improbable, that can't be allowed to happen. 434 00:29:23,493 --> 00:29:28,253 Speaker 3: So whether we think it is probable improbable given its nature, 435 00:29:29,013 --> 00:29:29,773 Speaker 3: we agree. 436 00:29:30,333 --> 00:29:35,293 Speaker 2: Okay, So there's a second example, and this gets back 437 00:29:35,293 --> 00:29:39,853 Speaker 2: into the thick of things. I would send something just 438 00:29:39,893 --> 00:29:44,693 Speaker 2: a short while before we met up on zoom and 439 00:29:46,453 --> 00:29:48,453 Speaker 2: I haven't had a chance to look at it in 440 00:29:48,533 --> 00:29:53,533 Speaker 2: its entirety, but it's a video of two people having 441 00:29:53,573 --> 00:29:57,973 Speaker 2: a discussion. One is the interrogator, if you like, The 442 00:29:58,053 --> 00:30:03,813 Speaker 2: other is a retired American general, and as I understand it, 443 00:30:04,413 --> 00:30:10,373 Speaker 2: the outcome of this discussion suggests very strongly that America 444 00:30:10,493 --> 00:30:16,653 Speaker 2: is very low on required ordinances, very low, and that 445 00:30:17,453 --> 00:30:21,333 Speaker 2: this is the prediction that Trump will pull out because 446 00:30:21,333 --> 00:30:21,613 Speaker 2: of it. 447 00:30:22,373 --> 00:30:26,093 Speaker 3: I would suggest that the retired general may have some 448 00:30:26,413 --> 00:30:31,773 Speaker 3: insight into this, But I don't think the president and 449 00:30:31,813 --> 00:30:34,773 Speaker 3: the people around him are so reckless to enter war 450 00:30:35,173 --> 00:30:38,853 Speaker 3: that they're like to lose. So when we take a 451 00:30:38,893 --> 00:30:42,773 Speaker 3: look at the American capacity of building these weapons, which 452 00:30:42,853 --> 00:30:46,293 Speaker 3: is substantial, I would like to think and I do 453 00:30:46,373 --> 00:30:50,373 Speaker 3: think that the war preparations began with the weapons in 454 00:30:50,493 --> 00:30:55,693 Speaker 3: hand and the massive numbers of weapons that now being produced. Remember, 455 00:30:56,293 --> 00:30:59,173 Speaker 3: we build our own weapons, and we build them fast, 456 00:30:59,573 --> 00:31:03,693 Speaker 3: and drones these days are not very complex to build. 457 00:31:04,813 --> 00:31:08,213 Speaker 3: So I would argue, I've heard of these people saying 458 00:31:08,213 --> 00:31:11,373 Speaker 3: that we're running out of the weapons, but I'm also 459 00:31:11,453 --> 00:31:16,373 Speaker 3: familiar with the American production system of these weapons, and 460 00:31:16,413 --> 00:31:19,773 Speaker 3: I suspect that we will be able to cover the 461 00:31:19,773 --> 00:31:22,933 Speaker 3: gap all right, at least I hope. So I don't 462 00:31:22,973 --> 00:31:26,853 Speaker 3: think that the military or the president would be so 463 00:31:26,973 --> 00:31:28,653 Speaker 3: reckless just to go to war that he's got to 464 00:31:28,693 --> 00:31:29,613 Speaker 3: rune out of weapons with. 465 00:31:30,213 --> 00:31:31,933 Speaker 2: There are a lot of questions that people are asking, 466 00:31:33,013 --> 00:31:37,373 Speaker 2: and one of them is why did Iran attack its 467 00:31:37,413 --> 00:31:42,373 Speaker 2: surrounding neighbors and do it viciously and continues to do it. 468 00:31:42,693 --> 00:31:46,013 Speaker 2: What led them to do that? Because the downside to 469 00:31:46,053 --> 00:31:49,693 Speaker 2: it is well, pretty obvious, isn't it. 470 00:31:50,293 --> 00:31:54,773 Speaker 3: Well it stopped properly understood just how many allies the 471 00:31:54,853 --> 00:31:58,853 Speaker 3: United States have in the I'll call the our world, 472 00:31:58,933 --> 00:32:03,693 Speaker 3: even though the Arabians are Persians, So we have bases 473 00:32:04,173 --> 00:32:08,093 Speaker 3: in most of the Gulf coast countries, we have bases 474 00:32:08,413 --> 00:32:12,293 Speaker 3: in Saudi Arabia, we have bases all over the place. 475 00:32:12,813 --> 00:32:15,973 Speaker 3: And these countries are allied with us, and we've guaranteed 476 00:32:16,013 --> 00:32:16,773 Speaker 3: to defend them. 477 00:32:16,653 --> 00:32:17,133 Speaker 4: And so on. 478 00:32:18,373 --> 00:32:21,853 Speaker 3: So one of the problems that the Iranians have is 479 00:32:21,893 --> 00:32:25,973 Speaker 3: that we don't have to fly in aircraft from the 480 00:32:26,053 --> 00:32:29,773 Speaker 3: United States. We can fly them in from the United 481 00:32:29,773 --> 00:32:35,133 Speaker 3: Arab Emirates and carry it. Therefore, from a military standpoint, 482 00:32:35,333 --> 00:32:39,453 Speaker 3: they're doing the right thing. They are attacking the bases 483 00:32:39,613 --> 00:32:43,293 Speaker 3: inside of these countries that the United States has, and 484 00:32:43,333 --> 00:32:47,093 Speaker 3: that's rational from their point of view, and to some extent, 485 00:32:47,493 --> 00:32:51,213 Speaker 3: trying to undermine the governments of these countries by inflicting 486 00:32:51,293 --> 00:32:56,533 Speaker 3: some pain on the citizens. Well, but really it has 487 00:32:56,573 --> 00:33:00,573 Speaker 3: to be understood that when you go around Iran is 488 00:33:00,613 --> 00:33:06,093 Speaker 3: surrounded by American bases that were many times built because 489 00:33:06,133 --> 00:33:10,893 Speaker 3: these countries feared Iran. They allied with the United States. 490 00:33:11,853 --> 00:33:15,573 Speaker 3: So this is not a case where Iran is surrounded 491 00:33:15,613 --> 00:33:20,653 Speaker 3: by neighbors who are appalled by what's happening, surrounded by 492 00:33:20,893 --> 00:33:23,453 Speaker 3: allies to the United States, and that's why they're attacking 493 00:33:23,453 --> 00:33:24,213 Speaker 3: these other countries. 494 00:33:24,653 --> 00:33:28,493 Speaker 2: So are these countries in a position to retaliate to 495 00:33:28,573 --> 00:33:29,853 Speaker 2: what Iran's doing to them? 496 00:33:30,653 --> 00:33:33,933 Speaker 3: Do you have some substantial ons Kuwait, for example, that's 497 00:33:34,053 --> 00:33:39,613 Speaker 3: mistakenly brought down two American airplanes. So they have anti missiles, missiles, 498 00:33:39,973 --> 00:33:45,893 Speaker 3: anti aircraft missiles. They have bought lots of weapons, not 499 00:33:45,933 --> 00:33:49,053 Speaker 3: on theoretical fears, but on the general fear of Iran. 500 00:33:50,013 --> 00:33:52,853 Speaker 3: So when we start talking about Iran, you have to 501 00:33:52,933 --> 00:33:58,453 Speaker 3: understand how isolated it is in the region politically, Politically. 502 00:33:59,613 --> 00:34:03,653 Speaker 3: It attacks Saudi Arabia because of the air base there, 503 00:34:04,133 --> 00:34:07,693 Speaker 3: but also because it was a competitive to Saudi Arabia 504 00:34:07,693 --> 00:34:10,333 Speaker 3: in many ways, with a very different ideology in Saudi 505 00:34:10,333 --> 00:34:14,733 Speaker 3: Arabia to say with the Dull States. So when you 506 00:34:14,773 --> 00:34:16,293 Speaker 3: look at the Middle East. Did you look at a 507 00:34:16,333 --> 00:34:20,253 Speaker 3: map of all the bases the United States has. That's 508 00:34:20,253 --> 00:34:22,373 Speaker 3: a signal of how many lies the United States has 509 00:34:22,253 --> 00:34:25,853 Speaker 3: in the region. So this is not an isolated ward. 510 00:34:25,893 --> 00:34:29,013 Speaker 3: Now do they have the ability to engage Iran? Well, 511 00:34:29,773 --> 00:34:32,413 Speaker 3: Iran is a very large country, has always been as 512 00:34:32,453 --> 00:34:36,853 Speaker 3: a substantial population. So many these countries are small, and 513 00:34:36,933 --> 00:34:39,493 Speaker 3: many of them have depended in the United States for 514 00:34:39,773 --> 00:34:44,613 Speaker 3: doing these things. And you see relatively little criticism coming 515 00:34:44,693 --> 00:34:48,373 Speaker 3: from these countries from their governments on what's going on. 516 00:34:48,853 --> 00:34:51,413 Speaker 3: The criticism is primarily coming from outside the region. 517 00:34:51,773 --> 00:34:55,013 Speaker 2: I was sent this by a listener to the podcast. 518 00:34:55,893 --> 00:35:00,173 Speaker 2: The Abraham Accords brought Sunny Arab states into the same 519 00:35:00,213 --> 00:35:04,013 Speaker 2: trench against Iran, beyond what the United Nations could ever 520 00:35:04,173 --> 00:35:08,253 Speaker 2: have achieved in a month of Sundays, no small thing. 521 00:35:09,093 --> 00:35:12,493 Speaker 2: Note that Iran has already hit those same partners in 522 00:35:12,573 --> 00:35:16,573 Speaker 2: the accords. Somebody please tell these international rules based order 523 00:35:16,693 --> 00:35:21,933 Speaker 2: parrots to catch up with reality. Trump ended your effing order. 524 00:35:22,413 --> 00:35:26,613 Speaker 2: Now sit down, shut up, and learn something important so 525 00:35:26,773 --> 00:35:29,173 Speaker 2: that the free world can continue to be the free world. 526 00:35:29,293 --> 00:35:31,493 Speaker 2: Is there sense in that, Well. 527 00:35:31,333 --> 00:35:33,493 Speaker 3: There's a great deal of sense in that. In the 528 00:35:33,573 --> 00:35:38,773 Speaker 3: sense that asiphrom ideology in the free world and these things, okay, One, 529 00:35:38,853 --> 00:35:45,853 Speaker 3: the United States president is obligated to protect the American people. Secondly, 530 00:35:46,773 --> 00:35:50,653 Speaker 3: that the Iranians are not only threats to the American people, 531 00:35:51,333 --> 00:35:57,213 Speaker 3: but are imminent threats to their neighbors. Groups like Haswala okay, 532 00:35:57,533 --> 00:36:02,293 Speaker 3: are not only threatening Israel, they're threatening other modern countries. So, 533 00:36:02,413 --> 00:36:07,453 Speaker 3: for example, Saudi Arabia is totally hostile to these terrorist 534 00:36:07,493 --> 00:36:13,373 Speaker 3: groups and is very hostile to Iran. So when you 535 00:36:13,453 --> 00:36:17,013 Speaker 3: look at it, one thing that's apparent is that the 536 00:36:17,053 --> 00:36:21,653 Speaker 3: region is not appalled by what's happening, but I think 537 00:36:21,693 --> 00:36:25,133 Speaker 3: in a certain way relieved even if they're under fire, 538 00:36:25,253 --> 00:36:27,853 Speaker 3: because they understand if the Americans were there, they'd be 539 00:36:27,853 --> 00:36:31,733 Speaker 3: a different position. The Abraham Accords was, in principle a 540 00:36:31,853 --> 00:36:35,533 Speaker 3: very good thing. It didn't work out, not because of 541 00:36:35,693 --> 00:36:39,893 Speaker 3: Israel so much as for many countries not wanting to 542 00:36:39,973 --> 00:36:44,253 Speaker 3: join it so openly. It was a good first step. 543 00:36:45,653 --> 00:36:51,893 Speaker 3: But what's ignored is, aside from the Abraham Accords, the 544 00:36:51,933 --> 00:36:55,893 Speaker 3: intense close relationships the United States has not only with Israel, 545 00:36:56,853 --> 00:37:01,653 Speaker 3: but many of these other countries, Arab Islamic countries that 546 00:37:01,773 --> 00:37:02,573 Speaker 3: fear Iran. 547 00:37:02,933 --> 00:37:05,573 Speaker 2: Let's take a look at some of the side effects 548 00:37:05,613 --> 00:37:11,013 Speaker 2: of this, or the direct effects. Shipping disruption of course, 549 00:37:12,213 --> 00:37:16,533 Speaker 2: and the fact that the Strait of Humus is now 550 00:37:17,333 --> 00:37:20,693 Speaker 2: now closed. Whether it's official or unofficial doesn't make any difference. 551 00:37:21,173 --> 00:37:24,293 Speaker 2: How long can that state of affairs be retained? 552 00:37:24,973 --> 00:37:27,773 Speaker 3: Well? The price of oil will go up, of course, 553 00:37:28,453 --> 00:37:35,253 Speaker 3: be retained well enough. Are we going to abandon the 554 00:37:35,333 --> 00:37:41,253 Speaker 3: region to rein in control because of that? By the way, 555 00:37:41,293 --> 00:37:46,933 Speaker 3: the closure was declared by the Iranians threatening to sink 556 00:37:46,973 --> 00:37:49,973 Speaker 3: any ship where they have the capacity of doing so, 557 00:37:50,693 --> 00:37:53,213 Speaker 3: ignores the question of what the US Navy, which is 558 00:37:53,253 --> 00:37:56,973 Speaker 3: also deployed in the area, expecting some action like this, 559 00:37:57,453 --> 00:38:03,493 Speaker 3: what they would do in retaliation. So it's they declared 560 00:38:03,613 --> 00:38:06,853 Speaker 3: it closed in the sense they threaten any ship that 561 00:38:06,933 --> 00:38:09,573 Speaker 3: goes through it. On the other hand, the US Navy 562 00:38:09,693 --> 00:38:10,893 Speaker 3: is going to have a voter on this too. 563 00:38:11,693 --> 00:38:14,813 Speaker 2: Yes, But at the same time there is the issue 564 00:38:14,853 --> 00:38:20,853 Speaker 2: of insurance and the insurance ships not being able to 565 00:38:21,173 --> 00:38:24,973 Speaker 2: you know, oil carriers not being able to ensure their 566 00:38:25,453 --> 00:38:28,773 Speaker 2: ships through the straits of whom was being denied. Insurance 567 00:38:30,053 --> 00:38:33,213 Speaker 2: is on the cards being announced. 568 00:38:34,253 --> 00:38:36,773 Speaker 3: As most of the wars do. It will have economic 569 00:38:36,813 --> 00:38:42,013 Speaker 3: consequences for other countries, who, on the one hand, do 570 00:38:42,133 --> 00:38:45,013 Speaker 3: not take the risks that the United States takes in 571 00:38:45,053 --> 00:38:50,333 Speaker 3: these matters. Claims that another outcome would be possible. Well, 572 00:38:50,373 --> 00:38:53,333 Speaker 3: the countries in the region who are also affected by 573 00:38:53,373 --> 00:38:57,773 Speaker 3: not being able to get their oil out rally. So 574 00:38:58,573 --> 00:39:00,773 Speaker 3: we have to take a look at the question of 575 00:39:01,333 --> 00:39:05,493 Speaker 3: in two ways. One, what else could we do? What 576 00:39:05,533 --> 00:39:08,973 Speaker 3: else could the region do when the Iranians absolutely refused 577 00:39:09,133 --> 00:39:14,733 Speaker 3: to abandon a deulear program. Secondly, what price is being paid? Well, 578 00:39:14,893 --> 00:39:18,853 Speaker 3: the United States take a price in weapons and lives 579 00:39:18,893 --> 00:39:21,013 Speaker 3: and so on and so forth, and the risking of them. 580 00:39:21,373 --> 00:39:24,493 Speaker 3: At the same time, if we left, the people in 581 00:39:24,493 --> 00:39:29,053 Speaker 3: the region would be facing an Iran triumphant. So yeah, 582 00:39:29,133 --> 00:39:34,093 Speaker 3: war has a cost, and it's really not a tragedy 583 00:39:34,093 --> 00:39:38,013 Speaker 3: of prices go up and prevent catastrophe of Iran. 584 00:39:38,973 --> 00:39:41,373 Speaker 2: You've been to a Ran in the past, I think 585 00:39:41,413 --> 00:39:46,413 Speaker 2: a long time back, yes, in need, how much has 586 00:39:46,453 --> 00:39:50,773 Speaker 2: Iran changed since you were there just briefly? And the 587 00:39:50,813 --> 00:39:53,733 Speaker 2: outcome of this if it were to be successful, if 588 00:39:53,733 --> 00:39:57,453 Speaker 2: Trump's successful or the West is successful, however you want 589 00:39:57,493 --> 00:40:00,613 Speaker 2: to frame it, what do you think the unfolding will be. 590 00:40:00,973 --> 00:40:04,693 Speaker 3: Well, when I was there, it was during the time 591 00:40:04,733 --> 00:40:07,333 Speaker 3: when the Shah of Iran was still in place. He 592 00:40:07,453 --> 00:40:10,573 Speaker 3: was alive the United States, and he was relatively secular, 593 00:40:12,213 --> 00:40:17,293 Speaker 3: somewhat opposed to the Islamist forces. He was overthrown by 594 00:40:17,293 --> 00:40:21,693 Speaker 3: the Islamist forces. And if you'll remember, the American embassy 595 00:40:21,773 --> 00:40:24,653 Speaker 3: was seized by the Islamist forces and the Americans hold 596 00:40:24,813 --> 00:40:29,493 Speaker 3: hostage and so forth. So this is a very different 597 00:40:29,733 --> 00:40:38,213 Speaker 3: Iran than under the Shah, from the standpoint of Islamic extremists, 598 00:40:38,373 --> 00:40:42,093 Speaker 3: a much better Iran, from the standpoint of the West, 599 00:40:42,253 --> 00:40:44,253 Speaker 3: a much more dangerous one. 600 00:40:44,493 --> 00:40:45,413 Speaker 4: So there it is. 601 00:40:46,293 --> 00:40:48,653 Speaker 3: So when you look at the region, it is deeply 602 00:40:48,693 --> 00:40:53,493 Speaker 3: divided internally in some countries, but externally between those countries 603 00:40:54,413 --> 00:40:56,573 Speaker 3: that are very oriented. 604 00:40:56,253 --> 00:40:58,973 Speaker 4: To the West and the United States, which. 605 00:40:58,813 --> 00:41:02,613 Speaker 3: Is the majority, and then Iran, which went its own 606 00:41:02,693 --> 00:41:04,293 Speaker 3: course in a very different way. 607 00:41:05,133 --> 00:41:08,013 Speaker 2: I'm gonna ask you to do something based on based 608 00:41:08,013 --> 00:41:13,493 Speaker 2: on him history. You've got you've got the Arabs, the Muslims, 609 00:41:14,093 --> 00:41:17,413 Speaker 2: and you've got the Persians. And the only place in 610 00:41:17,453 --> 00:41:20,453 Speaker 2: the world where where this this is applicable, of course, 611 00:41:20,533 --> 00:41:25,573 Speaker 2: is is Iran. And there is a difference between the two. 612 00:41:26,333 --> 00:41:29,733 Speaker 2: What is the what is the nature of that difference, 613 00:41:30,573 --> 00:41:34,973 Speaker 2: what effect does it have on the country, and is 614 00:41:35,013 --> 00:41:38,693 Speaker 2: that a good reason on its own to take care 615 00:41:38,773 --> 00:41:42,253 Speaker 2: of the government of Iran, who considers themselves to be 616 00:41:42,333 --> 00:41:45,293 Speaker 2: the owners of that country. Best described by somebody recently 617 00:41:45,333 --> 00:41:48,813 Speaker 2: along the lines of it's a it's a gang of 618 00:41:48,893 --> 00:41:51,413 Speaker 2: thugs that has captured a country. 619 00:41:51,973 --> 00:41:55,973 Speaker 3: Well, First of all, the Islamic world is divided in 620 00:41:56,013 --> 00:42:00,093 Speaker 3: two major parts, the shades of the Sunnis, and each 621 00:42:00,133 --> 00:42:04,333 Speaker 3: of these countries are one or the other divided. 622 00:42:03,933 --> 00:42:04,653 Speaker 4: Between the two. 623 00:42:05,733 --> 00:42:09,573 Speaker 3: There's tension within Islam, It's that one thing, but there's 624 00:42:09,613 --> 00:42:13,853 Speaker 3: also a tension in the Islamic world between those groups 625 00:42:14,213 --> 00:42:21,293 Speaker 3: Shiite or Sunni, particularly Shiite, that are hostile not only 626 00:42:21,373 --> 00:42:24,333 Speaker 3: to the United States, not only to Israel and so on, 627 00:42:24,653 --> 00:42:29,413 Speaker 3: but hostile to governments that are not radically Islamists okay, 628 00:42:30,213 --> 00:42:35,493 Speaker 3: And many of the countries are overwhelmingly Islamic in nature, 629 00:42:36,173 --> 00:42:40,813 Speaker 3: but are not Islamist in the sense of the extremes 630 00:42:40,893 --> 00:42:41,813 Speaker 3: that some. 631 00:42:41,893 --> 00:42:42,653 Speaker 4: Islams go to. 632 00:42:43,533 --> 00:42:47,693 Speaker 3: So when you look at Hezbollah, okay, you're looking at 633 00:42:47,733 --> 00:42:52,333 Speaker 3: a non state actor, a massive army. It doesn't only 634 00:42:52,413 --> 00:42:57,733 Speaker 3: attack Israel. The Saudis are quite concerned about them too, 635 00:42:57,893 --> 00:43:03,453 Speaker 3: so the Gulf States. So Islam, like Christianity, is divided 636 00:43:04,133 --> 00:43:08,813 Speaker 3: into various groups. As in Christian history, they were tensions 637 00:43:08,853 --> 00:43:12,893 Speaker 3: within the groups between Protestants and Catholics, nations and so 638 00:43:12,973 --> 00:43:16,093 Speaker 3: on and so forth. But at this point in history 639 00:43:16,213 --> 00:43:19,413 Speaker 3: where that tension has to a great extent died down 640 00:43:20,453 --> 00:43:24,373 Speaker 3: in the Islamic world, it's now in a way peaking, 641 00:43:24,653 --> 00:43:27,933 Speaker 3: and it's always been there, and it happens within countries. 642 00:43:29,173 --> 00:43:32,013 Speaker 3: But it's also true that the Shiites can be allied 643 00:43:32,053 --> 00:43:36,813 Speaker 3: with its Muslims, with Sunnis so long as they have 644 00:43:37,013 --> 00:43:43,973 Speaker 3: the same radical program of imposing Islamic law on the community. 645 00:43:44,373 --> 00:43:47,293 Speaker 3: So when the Saudis joined didn't join, but was going 646 00:43:47,333 --> 00:43:51,533 Speaker 3: to join the Abraham Accords, it was not that it 647 00:43:51,573 --> 00:43:54,853 Speaker 3: was not an Islamic country, but it wasn't the kind 648 00:43:54,893 --> 00:43:58,333 Speaker 3: of Islam that was in Iran. So there would be 649 00:43:58,413 --> 00:44:01,773 Speaker 3: a big difference at this point in history between the 650 00:44:01,853 --> 00:44:06,933 Speaker 3: groups and the countries and how they approach Islam, Saudi 651 00:44:06,973 --> 00:44:08,973 Speaker 3: Arabia in one way around another. 652 00:44:09,533 --> 00:44:14,013 Speaker 2: Questions being asked by most people, and I know Trump's 653 00:44:14,133 --> 00:44:17,893 Speaker 2: response to it, and I hope, I hope he's correct. 654 00:44:19,053 --> 00:44:23,373 Speaker 2: How long could this go? On and what would the 655 00:44:23,373 --> 00:44:28,453 Speaker 2: result be? And there's a third part. Is it likely 656 00:44:28,733 --> 00:44:34,613 Speaker 2: that the Persians will oblige Trump and rise up against 657 00:44:34,613 --> 00:44:38,653 Speaker 2: the against the leftovers in the previous administration. 658 00:44:39,333 --> 00:44:43,813 Speaker 3: Well, every war is entered with the assumption that the 659 00:44:43,853 --> 00:44:47,173 Speaker 3: strategy of their side will cause a rapid defeat of 660 00:44:47,253 --> 00:44:51,693 Speaker 3: the enemy. That's a kind of normal thing. In this 661 00:44:51,733 --> 00:44:57,333 Speaker 3: particular case, the enemy, the Iranians, have a tremendous amount 662 00:44:57,333 --> 00:44:59,613 Speaker 3: to lose. But you've put your finger on the great 663 00:44:59,693 --> 00:45:06,333 Speaker 3: weakness of Iran. Iran is deeply divided. We saw major 664 00:45:06,413 --> 00:45:11,133 Speaker 3: demonstrations being held against government in recent months. We saw 665 00:45:11,173 --> 00:45:15,693 Speaker 3: the government brutally killing many people in the streets. I 666 00:45:15,693 --> 00:45:18,493 Speaker 3: think one of the reasons that Trump felt it was 667 00:45:18,573 --> 00:45:21,693 Speaker 3: possible to do this is what he stated on the 668 00:45:21,733 --> 00:45:26,213 Speaker 3: first day the attack began. Let the people of Iran 669 00:45:26,413 --> 00:45:31,653 Speaker 3: rise up and overthrow. Notice that what he did militarily 670 00:45:32,413 --> 00:45:36,093 Speaker 3: is basically decapitate the countries they call it. He cut 671 00:45:36,133 --> 00:45:43,893 Speaker 3: off the ruling segment, the highest levels, Hmeny downward. Knocking 672 00:45:43,933 --> 00:45:49,173 Speaker 3: out that element created a possibility of the people going 673 00:45:49,213 --> 00:45:52,013 Speaker 3: to the streets again. If you remember, he urged the 674 00:45:52,053 --> 00:45:55,333 Speaker 3: Iranians to take control of their country, going to streets 675 00:45:55,453 --> 00:45:58,853 Speaker 3: and take it over. Well, they didn't choose to go, 676 00:45:59,533 --> 00:46:02,653 Speaker 3: or they were prevented from going by the military. But 677 00:46:02,693 --> 00:46:06,253 Speaker 3: there's something important to understand about Iran's military. There are 678 00:46:06,253 --> 00:46:13,693 Speaker 3: two militaries in Iran, the IRGC, the Republican Guard, the 679 00:46:13,773 --> 00:46:21,053 Speaker 3: Islamic Republican Guard that is truly tensely is labist. There's 680 00:46:21,093 --> 00:46:24,613 Speaker 3: another army, the army that they inherited from the Shah 681 00:46:24,653 --> 00:46:30,773 Speaker 3: of Iran, that's primarily secular, is much larger. The IRGC 682 00:46:31,013 --> 00:46:33,973 Speaker 3: gets all of the weapons that can be used against 683 00:46:34,013 --> 00:46:40,013 Speaker 3: other countries. The other army, the Army of Iran, is 684 00:46:40,053 --> 00:46:43,333 Speaker 3: both secular and well armed and designed to defend the 685 00:46:43,373 --> 00:46:46,933 Speaker 3: country from others. So I think one of the hopes 686 00:46:46,973 --> 00:46:50,333 Speaker 3: in all of this is that as the IRGC is 687 00:46:51,013 --> 00:46:56,413 Speaker 3: reduced in power through American attacks, the army might emerge. 688 00:46:57,213 --> 00:47:02,893 Speaker 3: It's interesting that in the US government there's never a 689 00:47:02,933 --> 00:47:08,453 Speaker 3: public discussion of the army of the secular army. 690 00:47:09,053 --> 00:47:11,293 Speaker 4: At the same time, we have not attacked that army 691 00:47:11,333 --> 00:47:11,733 Speaker 4: at all. 692 00:47:12,813 --> 00:47:15,293 Speaker 3: So I think the endgame from the American point of view, 693 00:47:15,293 --> 00:47:20,693 Speaker 3: and this gets complicated, is to see the IRGC, which 694 00:47:20,733 --> 00:47:26,413 Speaker 3: is the foundation of national security for the Islamists whither 695 00:47:26,533 --> 00:47:30,973 Speaker 3: away through multiple attacks, and the army itself, which is 696 00:47:31,053 --> 00:47:35,333 Speaker 3: not hostile to the Western world, which is secular in 697 00:47:35,493 --> 00:47:39,973 Speaker 3: many ways, coming to power. So in this discussions you've had, 698 00:47:40,453 --> 00:47:45,493 Speaker 3: everybody is focused on the Islamist IRGC. No one talks 699 00:47:45,493 --> 00:47:48,693 Speaker 3: about the army itself, which is larger than the RGC 700 00:47:49,213 --> 00:47:51,493 Speaker 3: than not as well armed, and what they will do. 701 00:47:51,853 --> 00:47:55,133 Speaker 3: So there is something else going on in this operation 702 00:47:55,813 --> 00:48:00,093 Speaker 3: weakening the IRGC to the point where the army may 703 00:48:00,293 --> 00:48:04,173 Speaker 3: take over. And I think the first hope was that 704 00:48:04,213 --> 00:48:06,133 Speaker 3: the public would go out in the streets as they 705 00:48:06,173 --> 00:48:11,373 Speaker 3: had done for many, many ways before this, to oppose 706 00:48:11,413 --> 00:48:16,333 Speaker 3: the regime. But if that didn't happen, Plan B, which 707 00:48:16,373 --> 00:48:21,533 Speaker 3: I think is in place, is weakened the IRGC and 708 00:48:21,613 --> 00:48:24,013 Speaker 3: opened the door for the army, which has not been 709 00:48:24,053 --> 00:48:26,133 Speaker 3: attacked at all, to take over. 710 00:48:27,413 --> 00:48:30,973 Speaker 2: Is there an ethnic difference between those two armies. 711 00:48:32,213 --> 00:48:38,813 Speaker 3: Not really Ethnically, they are all Persians, most Iranians are. 712 00:48:40,293 --> 00:48:44,293 Speaker 3: They're not Arabs. There are Arabs of course in Iran 713 00:48:44,293 --> 00:48:49,013 Speaker 3: and so on and so forth. There's a fundamental ideological difference. 714 00:48:49,813 --> 00:48:55,253 Speaker 3: The army is not ideological, if you will, It is 715 00:48:55,293 --> 00:48:59,413 Speaker 3: not Islambist by nature. It is a professional army that 716 00:48:59,613 --> 00:49:05,333 Speaker 3: was created first by the British and then supported by 717 00:49:05,373 --> 00:49:06,733 Speaker 3: the Americans. 718 00:49:06,733 --> 00:49:07,893 Speaker 4: And it survived. 719 00:49:08,493 --> 00:49:12,253 Speaker 3: Know, the Islamis overthrew everything they could not and did 720 00:49:12,253 --> 00:49:13,813 Speaker 3: not want to overthrow that army. 721 00:49:14,453 --> 00:49:17,733 Speaker 4: So it's sitting out there. It's very large, much larger 722 00:49:17,773 --> 00:49:19,733 Speaker 4: than the RGC, and. 723 00:49:19,693 --> 00:49:22,213 Speaker 3: I think that is the end game that the United 724 00:49:22,213 --> 00:49:26,613 Speaker 3: States is hoping for, having lost the hope of an 725 00:49:26,693 --> 00:49:29,373 Speaker 3: uprising inside of Iran people. 726 00:49:30,373 --> 00:49:33,493 Speaker 2: All right, we have left Israel out of this in 727 00:49:33,533 --> 00:49:37,973 Speaker 2: the main. But finally, as far as this shall we 728 00:49:38,013 --> 00:49:41,613 Speaker 2: say segment is concerned, what are the dangers to Israel 729 00:49:42,253 --> 00:49:44,613 Speaker 2: if America loses this? 730 00:49:45,293 --> 00:49:48,773 Speaker 3: Well, I mean America can get tired of this. It 731 00:49:48,813 --> 00:49:52,853 Speaker 3: can't be defeated. So as in the Vietnam War, we 732 00:49:52,933 --> 00:49:53,693 Speaker 3: were not defeated. 733 00:49:54,133 --> 00:49:58,933 Speaker 4: We just left because we couldn't win. So the idea of. 734 00:49:58,853 --> 00:50:02,093 Speaker 3: Defeating the United States is a very difficult thing to 735 00:50:02,133 --> 00:50:06,213 Speaker 3: imagine because American power is substantial. On the other hand, 736 00:50:06,333 --> 00:50:08,453 Speaker 3: if the United States were not involved in this, yes, 737 00:50:09,293 --> 00:50:14,933 Speaker 3: Israel would be having to be much more risk taking 738 00:50:15,253 --> 00:50:18,613 Speaker 3: at aggressive in area. Because I talked about nine to 739 00:50:18,653 --> 00:50:23,893 Speaker 3: eleven from the Israeli point of view and nuclear Iran 740 00:50:24,493 --> 00:50:27,573 Speaker 3: would be a catastrophic event, so they would have to 741 00:50:27,573 --> 00:50:30,933 Speaker 3: do it. But the Americans and Israelis in this case 742 00:50:32,173 --> 00:50:37,933 Speaker 3: have common interests. They don't always match on Daza. Certainly 743 00:50:37,933 --> 00:50:41,813 Speaker 3: the American view is not the Israeli view. But in 744 00:50:42,053 --> 00:50:46,893 Speaker 3: stopping Iran from having nuclear weapons, Israel stands with Saudi Arabia, 745 00:50:46,973 --> 00:50:51,493 Speaker 3: the Air Emerts, gut her and all these other countries. Okay, 746 00:50:51,813 --> 00:50:55,133 Speaker 3: so there is a huge coalition here. Most of the 747 00:50:55,253 --> 00:50:58,453 Speaker 3: week Israel not but not strong enough to take on 748 00:50:58,573 --> 00:50:59,813 Speaker 3: around alone. 749 00:51:00,373 --> 00:51:03,813 Speaker 2: What about net In Yahoo and the campaigns, the internal 750 00:51:03,853 --> 00:51:04,973 Speaker 2: campaigns against. 751 00:51:04,733 --> 00:51:10,813 Speaker 3: Him, well, Neda Yahu, in the eyes of many Israelis, 752 00:51:12,093 --> 00:51:18,973 Speaker 3: first failed to run intelligence properly to detect the Hamas attack. 753 00:51:19,693 --> 00:51:24,013 Speaker 3: AMA's attack was being panned for many months, perhaps years, 754 00:51:24,133 --> 00:51:30,013 Speaker 3: and intelligence Undern's control and his responsibility in some ways 755 00:51:30,453 --> 00:51:32,893 Speaker 3: failed to detect them. So there are many people who 756 00:51:32,933 --> 00:51:36,613 Speaker 3: criticized that you on that basis. There were many Israelis 757 00:51:36,653 --> 00:51:41,733 Speaker 3: who were appalled, particularly the army, of what was ordered 758 00:51:41,733 --> 00:51:45,573 Speaker 3: of them to do in Gaza. So there was a 759 00:51:45,613 --> 00:51:49,133 Speaker 3: lot of tension in the military as well and in 760 00:51:49,173 --> 00:51:52,333 Speaker 3: the country. Israel regards itself as part of the West, 761 00:51:53,613 --> 00:51:57,853 Speaker 3: the actions in Gaza isolated them in many ways for 762 00:51:57,933 --> 00:52:01,453 Speaker 3: the West. And so there's a deep divide in Israel 763 00:52:01,693 --> 00:52:05,413 Speaker 3: as many countries between Natio who say I did what 764 00:52:05,573 --> 00:52:09,333 Speaker 3: was necessary and I saved Israel for that, and he 765 00:52:09,373 --> 00:52:12,773 Speaker 3: said at the other side, which said, well, you let 766 00:52:12,813 --> 00:52:18,573 Speaker 3: Israel fall into a trap by failing to stop Abas. 767 00:52:18,773 --> 00:52:21,053 Speaker 4: And then you went way too far. 768 00:52:21,333 --> 00:52:25,733 Speaker 3: In isolating the world Israel like many countries where he 769 00:52:25,773 --> 00:52:26,333 Speaker 3: is divided. 770 00:52:27,013 --> 00:52:33,533 Speaker 2: Indeed, finally a few this is changing the this is 771 00:52:33,613 --> 00:52:38,773 Speaker 2: changing the topic to some degree. Anyway, a little prior 772 00:52:38,813 --> 00:52:42,733 Speaker 2: to this war breaking out, you write a piece in 773 00:52:42,813 --> 00:52:46,613 Speaker 2: response to claims that were being made in the United 774 00:52:46,653 --> 00:52:51,253 Speaker 2: States headed the US Supreme Court and geopolitics. I'll read 775 00:52:51,293 --> 00:52:55,093 Speaker 2: the opening lines. I'd like to begin by issuing a disclaimer. 776 00:52:55,693 --> 00:52:59,373 Speaker 2: I am neither a lawyer nor a constitutional scholar, but 777 00:52:59,453 --> 00:53:02,173 Speaker 2: I would like to share some simplistic thoughts on the 778 00:53:02,253 --> 00:53:06,773 Speaker 2: virtue of the United States, just briefly. Do you want 779 00:53:06,773 --> 00:53:07,493 Speaker 2: to cover that off? 780 00:53:08,053 --> 00:53:10,893 Speaker 3: Well, briefly, you know what I said. We have a 781 00:53:10,933 --> 00:53:17,133 Speaker 3: superb system of government. Congress makes the laws, the President 782 00:53:17,653 --> 00:53:23,733 Speaker 3: must operate under those laws, and the Supreme Court judges 783 00:53:23,973 --> 00:53:27,773 Speaker 3: whether he does or not. It is a bowels of powers. 784 00:53:28,373 --> 00:53:34,333 Speaker 3: Every president pushes against Congress to do things, many have 785 00:53:34,413 --> 00:53:38,093 Speaker 3: done things a Supreme Court overruled. Trump is not different. 786 00:53:38,213 --> 00:53:42,453 Speaker 3: He's somewhat more extreme, but at the same time he 787 00:53:42,533 --> 00:53:46,893 Speaker 3: is constrained. So one of the lovely things about the 788 00:53:47,013 --> 00:53:50,653 Speaker 3: United States is how negative the numbers are in him. 789 00:53:51,053 --> 00:53:54,893 Speaker 3: He went very far internally in the United States especially, 790 00:53:56,013 --> 00:54:00,533 Speaker 3: and therefore at this point his popularity ratings are very, 791 00:54:00,693 --> 00:54:06,613 Speaker 3: very negative. He may recover, but the American system rebounds 792 00:54:06,653 --> 00:54:13,013 Speaker 3: itself nicely. The Supreme Court acts, and ultimately Congress does, 793 00:54:13,053 --> 00:54:16,853 Speaker 3: even if it's a Republican one. Because at this moment 794 00:54:16,933 --> 00:54:19,813 Speaker 3: it appears clear that the Democrats will take over Congress. 795 00:54:21,133 --> 00:54:24,093 Speaker 3: So is the balance of powers that's so superb in 796 00:54:24,133 --> 00:54:28,333 Speaker 3: the United States. Now, we could all discuss and argue 797 00:54:28,373 --> 00:54:30,533 Speaker 3: over what this means and so on and so forth, 798 00:54:31,173 --> 00:54:34,933 Speaker 3: But from my point of view, chaos in the United 799 00:54:34,973 --> 00:54:39,373 Speaker 3: States is a norm at times, and the system continues 800 00:54:39,413 --> 00:54:44,333 Speaker 3: to operate. So at this moment, Trump is discovering that 801 00:54:44,413 --> 00:54:50,093 Speaker 3: he has great powers in foreign policy, far less in Minnesota, 802 00:54:50,613 --> 00:54:55,093 Speaker 3: where he carried out those attacks. So it's for me 803 00:54:55,213 --> 00:54:58,893 Speaker 3: a lovely system that was invented by Thomas Jefferson and 804 00:54:58,933 --> 00:55:01,693 Speaker 3: the founders of the country. It's a machine and it 805 00:55:01,773 --> 00:55:08,733 Speaker 3: works and also allows incredible disarray in the country within 806 00:55:08,773 --> 00:55:14,253 Speaker 3: the country, disagreement within the country, and yet constantly overcomes 807 00:55:14,293 --> 00:55:17,813 Speaker 3: it over the centuries. So I am a patriot in 808 00:55:17,853 --> 00:55:22,093 Speaker 3: that sense, but I also marvel sometimes other countries could 809 00:55:22,093 --> 00:55:24,773 Speaker 3: not take the stress Americ we do. 810 00:55:25,333 --> 00:55:29,413 Speaker 2: Interesting. And on that note, I'll say, so was this conversation. 811 00:55:29,933 --> 00:55:33,453 Speaker 2: You've been very erudite and explain things that a lot 812 00:55:33,493 --> 00:55:35,853 Speaker 2: of people will appreciate me included. 813 00:55:36,093 --> 00:55:40,493 Speaker 3: So great, see what hopefully I was right? 814 00:55:41,933 --> 00:55:45,133 Speaker 2: Well, time will tell you've been right before, so it 815 00:55:45,173 --> 00:55:50,013 Speaker 2: wouldn't be unique. So on that note, we will talk again, 816 00:55:50,173 --> 00:55:53,213 Speaker 2: I presume at some stage, but we'll see how things go. 817 00:55:53,613 --> 00:55:56,853 Speaker 2: But I suggest that trying to pick the result of 818 00:55:56,893 --> 00:56:00,573 Speaker 2: this is just a waste of time. You've got to 819 00:56:00,613 --> 00:56:03,533 Speaker 2: write it out and see where it goes and concludes. 820 00:56:04,213 --> 00:56:07,213 Speaker 2: So thank you, we appreciate it, take care, take care 821 00:56:07,253 --> 00:56:26,333 Speaker 2: of yourself, and now enter the mail room and missus 822 00:56:26,333 --> 00:56:29,333 Speaker 2: producer Podcast number three hundred and eighteen three one eight. 823 00:56:29,773 --> 00:56:31,053 Speaker 2: How are you doing late? 824 00:56:31,133 --> 00:56:31,173 Speaker 3: No? 825 00:56:31,293 --> 00:56:31,613 Speaker 5: Great? 826 00:56:31,893 --> 00:56:34,933 Speaker 2: Thank you and you sound good good? Well do you 827 00:56:34,933 --> 00:56:36,813 Speaker 2: always do? Today? You sound even. 828 00:56:36,653 --> 00:56:38,013 Speaker 5: Better lots of exercise. 829 00:56:38,253 --> 00:56:38,973 Speaker 4: That's what it was. 830 00:56:39,573 --> 00:56:42,933 Speaker 2: Shall I go first? Why don't you thank you? Many 831 00:56:42,933 --> 00:56:45,293 Speaker 2: people believe that the most effective way of battling the 832 00:56:45,293 --> 00:56:50,133 Speaker 2: climate change scam is to demonstrate that man made carbon 833 00:56:50,133 --> 00:56:53,573 Speaker 2: dioxide has no effect on the climate. My own belief, 834 00:56:53,613 --> 00:56:56,893 Speaker 2: says the author, is that this is a waste of time, 835 00:56:57,573 --> 00:57:01,133 Speaker 2: because what you're doing is attacking the central belief of 836 00:57:01,293 --> 00:57:05,373 Speaker 2: a cult. I think it's better to attack it from 837 00:57:05,413 --> 00:57:09,653 Speaker 2: the edges and so undermine people's confidence in the central argument. 838 00:57:10,413 --> 00:57:13,613 Speaker 2: No matter what New Zealand does, it will not will 839 00:57:13,653 --> 00:57:17,773 Speaker 2: not change the world's climate. Yet many prominent people tell 840 00:57:17,853 --> 00:57:21,373 Speaker 2: us directly or imply that this is the case. This 841 00:57:21,693 --> 00:57:25,733 Speaker 2: is misinformation, and it provides good grounds for an attack 842 00:57:25,773 --> 00:57:28,773 Speaker 2: on the scam. The other one is to point out 843 00:57:28,853 --> 00:57:32,773 Speaker 2: that vast amounts of money have been squandered in futile 844 00:57:32,813 --> 00:57:36,693 Speaker 2: attempts to reduce carbon dioxide levels. Apart from things like 845 00:57:36,733 --> 00:57:40,573 Speaker 2: carbon taxes, we also have the extra cost we pay 846 00:57:40,693 --> 00:57:45,133 Speaker 2: for electric cars and for providing them, and for providing 847 00:57:45,173 --> 00:57:49,453 Speaker 2: them with charging points, the extra costs of using intermittent 848 00:57:49,573 --> 00:57:53,173 Speaker 2: wind and solar powerents instead of burning coal and gas, 849 00:57:53,573 --> 00:57:56,573 Speaker 2: and in particular the huge cost of trying to have 850 00:57:56,773 --> 00:57:59,773 Speaker 2: enough wind and solar power to get us through a 851 00:57:59,893 --> 00:58:04,653 Speaker 2: dry year in every normal year, it just represents surplus 852 00:58:04,693 --> 00:58:08,773 Speaker 2: power on the system. Also, apart from costing us a 853 00:58:09,093 --> 00:58:13,373 Speaker 2: huge amount of money, it also tends to destabilize the grid. 854 00:58:13,893 --> 00:58:16,493 Speaker 2: Bryan Well said, and thank you, Leyton. 855 00:58:16,573 --> 00:58:20,333 Speaker 5: Penny says, congratulations Layton on your well deserved inclusion in 856 00:58:20,373 --> 00:58:23,693 Speaker 5: the New Years on his list, thrilled for you. I 857 00:58:23,773 --> 00:58:26,653 Speaker 5: never miss an episode of your podcasts, but haven't written 858 00:58:26,653 --> 00:58:29,693 Speaker 5: for ages. However, when it's Shane Jones on offer, I 859 00:58:29,733 --> 00:58:32,933 Speaker 5: can't keep quiet. I adore him. I listen to him 860 00:58:32,973 --> 00:58:36,373 Speaker 5: every Saturday morning on Best of the Country. He mainly 861 00:58:36,413 --> 00:58:39,173 Speaker 5: makes me laugh like mad but he's also extremely eloquent 862 00:58:39,253 --> 00:58:44,893 Speaker 5: and articulate, rather like yourself, but funnier. He began with 863 00:58:44,933 --> 00:58:48,333 Speaker 5: an observation on the iniquity of social media and its 864 00:58:48,333 --> 00:58:51,253 Speaker 5: effects on our youth, and went on to discuss the 865 00:58:51,333 --> 00:58:56,853 Speaker 5: troubled and troubling youth of Northland, describing with an analogy 866 00:58:56,893 --> 00:58:59,333 Speaker 5: of youth wanting to take the elevator to the top, 867 00:58:59,733 --> 00:59:03,973 Speaker 5: not negotiate, and work at climbing the staircase. Says Shane, 868 00:59:04,213 --> 00:59:07,213 Speaker 5: I like to put them in their place. Lucky kids 869 00:59:07,213 --> 00:59:09,893 Speaker 5: who have an uncle Shane and their family. He obviously 870 00:59:09,973 --> 00:59:13,053 Speaker 5: takes a sessions with you very seriously. I was waiting 871 00:59:13,053 --> 00:59:16,493 Speaker 5: for some Shane Jones levity. We finally got a chuckle 872 00:59:16,533 --> 00:59:18,853 Speaker 5: out of him when you pushed him on Winston's ability 873 00:59:18,893 --> 00:59:21,973 Speaker 5: to actually stay breathing. Sorry, I'm a bit behind with 874 00:59:22,013 --> 00:59:24,813 Speaker 5: my listening catching up. Now that's from Penny. 875 00:59:25,013 --> 00:59:28,093 Speaker 2: Very good. I shall consider passing that on to the 876 00:59:28,493 --> 00:59:33,973 Speaker 2: much mentioned mister Jones. Now from Paul from memory, you 877 00:59:34,093 --> 00:59:38,493 Speaker 2: have in the past commented on activism or similar in 878 00:59:38,573 --> 00:59:41,493 Speaker 2: the judiciary, and just wondering if you have seen the 879 00:59:41,533 --> 00:59:45,693 Speaker 2: appointment of a High Court judge with strong Marie connections 880 00:59:45,733 --> 00:59:49,253 Speaker 2: and possible bias. According to some of the comments in 881 00:59:49,293 --> 00:59:54,533 Speaker 2: the link. Justice Amakura Kawaru has today been sworn in. 882 00:59:54,693 --> 00:59:58,093 Speaker 2: This was on the twenty fifth of February. Has today 883 00:59:58,133 --> 01:00:00,773 Speaker 2: been sworn in as the first High Court judge of 884 01:00:01,013 --> 01:00:05,333 Speaker 2: Nati Fatua, Oreki and Napui descent. She will go to 885 01:00:05,333 --> 01:00:08,253 Speaker 2: the High Court with solid grounding in Ti Kunga marii. 886 01:00:08,493 --> 01:00:10,453 Speaker 2: This is a quote by the way, she will go 887 01:00:10,493 --> 01:00:14,013 Speaker 2: to the High Court with solid grounding in Ti kangamari 888 01:00:14,573 --> 01:00:17,933 Speaker 2: which more and more is being interpreted in the courts. 889 01:00:18,373 --> 01:00:22,493 Speaker 2: It's accompanied by an address on one news. I mentioned 890 01:00:22,493 --> 01:00:26,613 Speaker 2: this to somebody who who is in the world of legaldom, 891 01:00:27,053 --> 01:00:30,853 Speaker 2: and their only comment was appointed by a so called 892 01:00:31,173 --> 01:00:35,613 Speaker 2: conservative government. That's all laden is from Rod. 893 01:00:35,733 --> 01:00:38,413 Speaker 5: He says, I just listened to your latest podcast three 894 01:00:38,453 --> 01:00:42,053 Speaker 5: one seven and in your mailroom, doctor Caroline Wheeler's name 895 01:00:42,133 --> 01:00:45,413 Speaker 5: came up. I felt compelled to reach out because I 896 01:00:45,453 --> 01:00:49,573 Speaker 5: feel a personal weight regarding her current situation. Back in 897 01:00:49,613 --> 01:00:52,413 Speaker 5: twenty twenty one, I caught COVID and was in a 898 01:00:52,533 --> 01:00:56,573 Speaker 5: very bad way. My wife was caring for me incredibly well, 899 01:00:56,613 --> 01:00:59,213 Speaker 5: but when she tried to reach out to a regular doctor, 900 01:00:59,253 --> 01:01:03,293 Speaker 5: they were unreachable. We rang the ambulance and the paramedics 901 01:01:03,333 --> 01:01:06,853 Speaker 5: advised us that the hospitals were overrun, and they said 902 01:01:06,853 --> 01:01:08,893 Speaker 5: the treatment you're getting from your wife is better than 903 01:01:08,893 --> 01:01:11,373 Speaker 5: what you'll get from the hospital. You're better off at home. 904 01:01:12,293 --> 01:01:15,533 Speaker 5: In desperation, my wife turned to social media for help 905 01:01:15,573 --> 01:01:19,573 Speaker 5: and was given three doctors' names, to which doctor Caroline responded, 906 01:01:20,253 --> 01:01:23,133 Speaker 5: she spoke to my wife multiple times a day and 907 01:01:23,213 --> 01:01:27,413 Speaker 5: I was prescribed I've a mecton. Over the following days, 908 01:01:27,453 --> 01:01:30,533 Speaker 5: they spoke two or three times a day. Within twenty 909 01:01:30,533 --> 01:01:33,453 Speaker 5: four hours of starting the treatment, I began to respond 910 01:01:33,493 --> 01:01:37,893 Speaker 5: to it. I truly believe she saved my life. Given this, 911 01:01:38,173 --> 01:01:40,933 Speaker 5: I find it hard to understand how someone can be 912 01:01:41,013 --> 01:01:45,773 Speaker 5: found guilty of serious professional misconduct for prescribing a medication 913 01:01:45,853 --> 01:01:48,133 Speaker 5: that has been used for over fifty years and is 914 01:01:48,253 --> 01:01:52,173 Speaker 5: not a banned substance. In my case, it was a lifesaver. 915 01:01:52,653 --> 01:01:56,013 Speaker 2: That's from Rod Rod. I can only suggest to you 916 01:01:56,573 --> 01:01:59,533 Speaker 2: something you've probably heard before many times. Follow the money, 917 01:02:00,573 --> 01:02:02,773 Speaker 2: and there are people who are very protective of their 918 01:02:02,813 --> 01:02:05,773 Speaker 2: positions too, when when they lose control, they run amok. 919 01:02:06,613 --> 01:02:11,493 Speaker 2: So that's my contribution to that. Last week I read 920 01:02:11,653 --> 01:02:17,053 Speaker 2: a letter from Kerry, otherwise known as Kiwi Kerry. He 921 01:02:17,133 --> 01:02:19,773 Speaker 2: lived here for a number of years, quite a number 922 01:02:19,773 --> 01:02:23,253 Speaker 2: of years, and then went back to Louisiana and lived 923 01:02:23,293 --> 01:02:26,533 Speaker 2: in New Orleans. And I read the letter out and 924 01:02:26,573 --> 01:02:28,733 Speaker 2: he made a comment or to and I asked him 925 01:02:28,733 --> 01:02:31,173 Speaker 2: a question. I just flicked an email back to him 926 01:02:31,173 --> 01:02:34,053 Speaker 2: and I said, where are you now? So he responded 927 01:02:34,173 --> 01:02:37,133 Speaker 2: on March the first, he said, I'm an hour east 928 01:02:37,253 --> 01:02:41,453 Speaker 2: of Metro in Picka Yune Metri. In case you don't know, 929 01:02:41,613 --> 01:02:45,493 Speaker 2: is the suburb of New Orleans and it borders on 930 01:02:46,093 --> 01:02:49,093 Speaker 2: Lake Pontre Train. So I'm an hour east of Metri 931 01:02:49,253 --> 01:02:53,813 Speaker 2: in Picka Yune, MS on the state line one fifty nine. 932 01:02:54,733 --> 01:03:00,213 Speaker 2: What's a miss anyway? Lake David estates two acres half 933 01:03:00,253 --> 01:03:05,573 Speaker 2: in pine, eight hundred square feet commercial greenhouse. You lucky man. 934 01:03:05,773 --> 01:03:08,453 Speaker 2: That is a junkyard right now, or maybe not so lucky. 935 01:03:08,813 --> 01:03:10,933 Speaker 2: I want to get I want to get by beehives 936 01:03:10,933 --> 01:03:13,533 Speaker 2: back before I start learning how to grow food or 937 01:03:13,573 --> 01:03:15,853 Speaker 2: about growing food. I finished work at the end of 938 01:03:15,853 --> 01:03:19,293 Speaker 2: twenty twenty four learning how to be a loose end. 939 01:03:20,013 --> 01:03:24,253 Speaker 2: So Lake is a retirement home. Still have my metry 940 01:03:24,253 --> 01:03:28,533 Speaker 2: home because of grandkids. I'm still not vaxed. We'll never 941 01:03:28,613 --> 01:03:32,053 Speaker 2: get any injection again. After my five year education in 942 01:03:32,133 --> 01:03:40,613 Speaker 2: farmer epidemiology, virology, vaccinology, allopathic corruption. Still following Malone, McCulloch 943 01:03:40,973 --> 01:03:45,853 Speaker 2: and Brownstone. That is the Brownstone Institute Daily. My daily 944 01:03:45,893 --> 01:03:50,613 Speaker 2: news source is Bannon's war Room. Legacy media is dead 945 01:03:50,613 --> 01:03:54,333 Speaker 2: to me. My latest insights are about Earth's six thousand 946 01:03:54,453 --> 01:03:58,133 Speaker 2: year cycles. You will appreciate the science and common sense 947 01:03:58,733 --> 01:04:01,373 Speaker 2: sends me a couple of a couple of references like 948 01:04:01,573 --> 01:04:06,933 Speaker 2: the disaster Cycle documentary if you want to follow, and 949 01:04:07,173 --> 01:04:11,693 Speaker 2: the Proof Science Connect the Dots, both on YouTube. I 950 01:04:11,773 --> 01:04:14,613 Speaker 2: follow Ben weekly. He must be one of them. He 951 01:04:14,653 --> 01:04:17,893 Speaker 2: does a three minute soul of weather report every morning. 952 01:04:18,573 --> 01:04:21,853 Speaker 2: You will enjoy learning about this and thinking about consequences. 953 01:04:22,093 --> 01:04:25,213 Speaker 2: It's worrisome for our children and grandchildren, but not for us. 954 01:04:25,733 --> 01:04:27,893 Speaker 2: Wishing you and Carolyn all the best. Keep up the 955 01:04:27,933 --> 01:04:32,013 Speaker 2: good fight. Missing New Zealand every day he does. He 956 01:04:32,093 --> 01:04:33,933 Speaker 2: every time he writes, he says how much he missus 957 01:04:34,093 --> 01:04:36,373 Speaker 2: New Zealand. Well, it's great to hear from you. And 958 01:04:36,533 --> 01:04:39,613 Speaker 2: can I come because there's a good chance it could happen. 959 01:04:39,973 --> 01:04:41,373 Speaker 2: Can I come visit you out there? 960 01:04:41,973 --> 01:04:45,213 Speaker 5: Perfect later? This is from Kevin. I have listened to 961 01:04:45,213 --> 01:04:49,013 Speaker 5: your on news Talk Z'B and your podcast since they began. However, 962 01:04:49,093 --> 01:04:51,693 Speaker 5: I have received none this year since you returned from 963 01:04:51,693 --> 01:04:54,853 Speaker 5: your holiday. Glitch in the system, I guess, so I've 964 01:04:54,853 --> 01:04:57,493 Speaker 5: signed up again. I mentioned it as it may have 965 01:04:57,533 --> 01:04:59,893 Speaker 5: happened to others and you may not be aware. Keep 966 01:04:59,973 --> 01:05:02,253 Speaker 5: up the good work. Hope this finds you and missus 967 01:05:02,293 --> 01:05:04,573 Speaker 5: Producer in the very best of health. That is a 968 01:05:04,773 --> 01:05:07,213 Speaker 5: hole when you were away, And that's from Kevin. 969 01:05:07,373 --> 01:05:10,813 Speaker 2: Kevin, thanks, thank you for that. It happens not infrequently, 970 01:05:11,373 --> 01:05:13,453 Speaker 2: and it's different things. And I flicked that off to 971 01:05:13,573 --> 01:05:15,453 Speaker 2: you would know this by now, Kevin. But I flicked 972 01:05:15,453 --> 01:05:19,133 Speaker 2: that off to the management of problems in the office, 973 01:05:19,813 --> 01:05:23,653 Speaker 2: and I think has probably been well. I know it's 974 01:05:23,653 --> 01:05:27,093 Speaker 2: been addressed. Whether it's solved or not, it's another matter. 975 01:05:27,493 --> 01:05:30,293 Speaker 2: But let me know if you still have an issue 976 01:05:30,613 --> 01:05:34,133 Speaker 2: now from Jin there are people, this is a quote. 977 01:05:34,253 --> 01:05:36,373 Speaker 2: There are people wailing in the streets of the West, 978 01:05:36,573 --> 01:05:40,773 Speaker 2: sodden with tears and outrage at the assassination of wait 979 01:05:40,853 --> 01:05:46,373 Speaker 2: for it, Iran Supreme leader Ali Kameni, reports Alexandra Marshall 980 01:05:46,413 --> 01:05:50,573 Speaker 2: from The Spectator. The Western left would rather cry foul 981 01:05:50,693 --> 01:05:54,573 Speaker 2: over the assassination of Iran Supreme Leader Iotolda Ali Kameni 982 01:05:55,813 --> 01:05:59,573 Speaker 2: then celebrate the demise of the terrorist leader. They would 983 01:05:59,693 --> 01:06:04,893 Speaker 2: rather uphold a virtue signaling international law that keeps Camenie 984 01:06:04,933 --> 01:06:08,893 Speaker 2: alive than a strong law that encourages the dedication of 985 01:06:08,933 --> 01:06:13,213 Speaker 2: his terrorism. Stephen Daisley, also from the Spectator, reminds us 986 01:06:13,253 --> 01:06:17,853 Speaker 2: that international law is utterly toothless against the tyrannical regime 987 01:06:18,333 --> 01:06:22,613 Speaker 2: that is, as Jim Allen also said, completely overruled and 988 01:06:22,773 --> 01:06:26,773 Speaker 2: rigged by the Guardian Council. Stephen was right when he said, 989 01:06:27,013 --> 01:06:31,293 Speaker 2: if international law says a kamenee should still be in place, 990 01:06:31,813 --> 01:06:36,213 Speaker 2: maybe international law deserves to be detonated along within. And 991 01:06:36,293 --> 01:06:39,773 Speaker 2: despite a large number of Iranians celebrating the death of 992 01:06:39,813 --> 01:06:43,893 Speaker 2: the tyrant Western leftists, the likes of Helen Clark, Chris Hipkins, 993 01:06:44,013 --> 01:06:48,893 Speaker 2: Marrima Davidson all condemned the war against terrorism, these two 994 01:06:48,933 --> 01:06:52,173 Speaker 2: faced hypocrites have forgotten that we voted for a regime 995 01:06:52,253 --> 01:06:56,653 Speaker 2: change from their leftist ideologies just three years ago. Long 996 01:06:56,733 --> 01:06:59,413 Speaker 2: may it last for the second term this year. 997 01:06:59,933 --> 01:07:04,453 Speaker 5: Cheers and late lastly from me, VICKI says many congratulations 998 01:07:04,453 --> 01:07:07,653 Speaker 5: on the New Year's honor awarded to you. She says, 999 01:07:07,693 --> 01:07:10,533 Speaker 5: I look forward to listening to more fabulous podcasts than 1000 01:07:10,573 --> 01:07:12,973 Speaker 5: twenty twenty six and beyond. 1001 01:07:12,973 --> 01:07:15,933 Speaker 2: Vicky, that's lovely good to hear from you, and I 1002 01:07:15,973 --> 01:07:18,453 Speaker 2: hope that you're well. And the reason I say this 1003 01:07:18,493 --> 01:07:21,333 Speaker 2: is because Vicky was the was the agent that set 1004 01:07:21,413 --> 01:07:24,133 Speaker 2: up set in play the idea that I should write 1005 01:07:24,173 --> 01:07:29,453 Speaker 2: a book back in twenty twelve, No, maybe it was 1006 01:07:29,453 --> 01:07:31,853 Speaker 2: even twenty eleven, because it took me two years to get. 1007 01:07:32,853 --> 01:07:36,173 Speaker 5: Your head around it. Yes, thanks so much, Vicky. 1008 01:07:36,333 --> 01:07:38,173 Speaker 2: You were very successful, so was the book, and I 1009 01:07:38,213 --> 01:07:43,053 Speaker 2: thank you again. Finally from Susan, who I haven't heard 1010 01:07:43,053 --> 01:07:45,613 Speaker 2: from for a while because she used to be very, 1011 01:07:46,173 --> 01:07:51,493 Speaker 2: very prolific, prolific. Yes, I'm listening to the Banking Association 1012 01:07:51,613 --> 01:07:53,733 Speaker 2: person on the radio this morning. What date was this? 1013 01:07:53,733 --> 01:07:58,333 Speaker 2: Twenty six feb this morning, and getting more and more frustrated. 1014 01:07:59,053 --> 01:08:03,293 Speaker 2: The Banking Association claims no one uses cash anymore, without 1015 01:08:03,413 --> 01:08:07,213 Speaker 2: ever mentioning that this situation has been brought about by 1016 01:08:07,253 --> 01:08:12,013 Speaker 2: their insistence that cashless is the way to go. Someone 1017 01:08:12,053 --> 01:08:14,573 Speaker 2: needs to call them to account. I would love to 1018 01:08:14,693 --> 01:08:19,293 Speaker 2: use cash more, but almost all councils, government departments, public libraries, 1019 01:08:19,293 --> 01:08:24,813 Speaker 2: et cetera will refuse to accept it. Given look, if 1020 01:08:24,853 --> 01:08:29,653 Speaker 2: you want to use cash that's legitimate, legal tender and 1021 01:08:29,693 --> 01:08:32,573 Speaker 2: they don't want to, they don't want to accept it, 1022 01:08:33,493 --> 01:08:37,533 Speaker 2: then don't pay. Whatever it is, don't pay because if 1023 01:08:37,573 --> 01:08:39,453 Speaker 2: I mean, if it's if it's rates or whatever, don't 1024 01:08:39,493 --> 01:08:43,853 Speaker 2: pay because they are obliged to accept it and they've 1025 01:08:43,853 --> 01:08:48,253 Speaker 2: got no footing to say otherwise. Given the RV and 1026 01:08:48,373 --> 01:08:51,613 Speaker 2: z's work on digital currency, I was surprised that they've 1027 01:08:51,613 --> 01:08:55,453 Speaker 2: come out with a proposal for a requirement that banks 1028 01:08:55,493 --> 01:08:59,293 Speaker 2: provide cash services. I wonder whether it's a red herring 1029 01:08:59,693 --> 01:09:02,173 Speaker 2: by George. You don't know, you don't know what you're saying, 1030 01:09:02,213 --> 01:09:04,613 Speaker 2: but I'll tell you in a minute, perhaps designed to 1031 01:09:04,693 --> 01:09:08,293 Speaker 2: invoke discussion or to reveal the level of consumer interest 1032 01:09:08,533 --> 01:09:11,613 Speaker 2: in the cash issue. Still loving the podcast. Thanks for 1033 01:09:11,613 --> 01:09:16,453 Speaker 2: all the work and keeping us informed on lots of subjects, Susan, 1034 01:09:17,453 --> 01:09:21,413 Speaker 2: As always, I appreciate your correspondence. What I was going 1035 01:09:21,453 --> 01:09:23,853 Speaker 2: to tell you was what I will tell you is 1036 01:09:25,133 --> 01:09:28,933 Speaker 2: so coincidental. The interview next week covers exactly what you 1037 01:09:29,173 --> 01:09:33,213 Speaker 2: are asking for, and it's already in the bag, so 1038 01:09:33,253 --> 01:09:37,773 Speaker 2: it's already done. But those things you mentioned where you 1039 01:09:37,773 --> 01:09:40,333 Speaker 2: were surprised, et cetera, et cetera. Wonder if whether it's 1040 01:09:40,333 --> 01:09:43,533 Speaker 2: a red herring. I've already I raised that question in 1041 01:09:43,613 --> 01:09:46,813 Speaker 2: the discussion. Anyway, that's next week. Thank you, missus, producer, 1042 01:09:47,333 --> 01:10:10,693 Speaker 2: Thank you so much later and see you next week. Also, 1043 01:10:10,973 --> 01:10:14,973 Speaker 2: so finally, let us stay with a bit of consistency, 1044 01:10:16,773 --> 01:10:21,693 Speaker 2: not exactly attached to what we've discussed in this podcast, 1045 01:10:21,893 --> 01:10:25,613 Speaker 2: but connected. As you'll see, the headline is Trump accepts 1046 01:10:25,653 --> 01:10:29,413 Speaker 2: White House Correspondent's Dinner invitation for the first time. He 1047 01:10:29,453 --> 01:10:33,013 Speaker 2: announced on Monday that he'll attend. Look, this is an 1048 01:10:33,053 --> 01:10:37,053 Speaker 2: example of how things change, but some things never change, 1049 01:10:37,413 --> 01:10:40,773 Speaker 2: and life goes on. President Donald Trump announced Monday that 1050 01:10:40,813 --> 01:10:43,813 Speaker 2: he will attend the White House Correspondent's Dinner for the 1051 01:10:43,813 --> 01:10:47,973 Speaker 2: first time as president, after declining to attend during his 1052 01:10:48,173 --> 01:10:51,213 Speaker 2: initial term in office due to his view that the 1053 01:10:51,253 --> 01:10:55,293 Speaker 2: majority of the media is unfairly biased against him the 1054 01:10:55,333 --> 01:10:58,853 Speaker 2: president it was the President also did not attend in 1055 01:10:58,893 --> 01:11:03,613 Speaker 2: twenty twenty five, the first year of his second presidential term. Quote, 1056 01:11:04,213 --> 01:11:08,253 Speaker 2: the White House Correspondence Association has asked me very nicely 1057 01:11:08,973 --> 01:11:13,053 Speaker 2: to be the honoree at this year's dinner, a long 1058 01:11:13,133 --> 01:11:16,173 Speaker 2: and story tradition since it began in nineteen twenty four 1059 01:11:17,213 --> 01:11:21,213 Speaker 2: under then President Calvin Coolidge, Trump said in a post 1060 01:11:21,293 --> 01:11:25,213 Speaker 2: on truth Social In honor of our nation's two hundred 1061 01:11:25,253 --> 01:11:30,533 Speaker 2: and fiftieth birthday and the fact that these correspondents quote 1062 01:11:30,613 --> 01:11:33,973 Speaker 2: unquote now admit that I am truly one of the 1063 01:11:33,973 --> 01:11:37,253 Speaker 2: greatest presidents in the history of our country. It will 1064 01:11:37,253 --> 01:11:41,653 Speaker 2: be my honor to accept their invitation and work to 1065 01:11:41,693 --> 01:11:45,493 Speaker 2: make it the greatest hottest and most spectacular dinner of 1066 01:11:45,573 --> 01:11:50,893 Speaker 2: any kind ever. This guy never gives up. Trump criticized 1067 01:11:50,893 --> 01:11:53,693 Speaker 2: the press for its coverage of him in his acceptance, 1068 01:11:53,933 --> 01:11:57,173 Speaker 2: pointing to it as a reason for his absence from 1069 01:11:57,213 --> 01:12:01,013 Speaker 2: past events because the press was extraordinarily bad to me, 1070 01:12:01,533 --> 01:12:05,373 Speaker 2: fake news all right, from the beginning of my first term. 1071 01:12:05,413 --> 01:12:08,653 Speaker 2: I boycotted the event and never went to as honore, 1072 01:12:08,853 --> 01:12:11,893 Speaker 2: He wrote, However, I look forward to being with everyone 1073 01:12:11,973 --> 01:12:15,573 Speaker 2: this year. Hopefully it'll be something very special now. The 1074 01:12:15,613 --> 01:12:19,573 Speaker 2: annual dinner, which celebrates the First Amendment, is set to 1075 01:12:19,693 --> 01:12:23,693 Speaker 2: take place on April twenty five at the Washington Hilton, 1076 01:12:24,133 --> 01:12:28,933 Speaker 2: outside of which John Hinckley Junior attempted to assassinate President 1077 01:12:29,013 --> 01:12:33,373 Speaker 2: Ronald Reagan in nineteen eighty one. It's it's a little scary, 1078 01:12:33,733 --> 01:12:36,533 Speaker 2: I think anyway. Trump was the first president to skip 1079 01:12:36,533 --> 01:12:39,493 Speaker 2: the event since Reagan, who was recovering at the time 1080 01:12:39,533 --> 01:12:44,933 Speaker 2: from an assassination attempt. The event is The event also 1081 01:12:45,093 --> 01:12:50,173 Speaker 2: serves as a fundraiser for journalism scholarships and awards. I 1082 01:12:50,173 --> 01:12:52,373 Speaker 2: think he should take over the management of that as well. 1083 01:12:52,813 --> 01:12:57,213 Speaker 2: Trump made headlines in twenty sixteen when he roasted his 1084 01:12:57,253 --> 01:13:01,653 Speaker 2: campaign opponent Hillary Clifton ahead of election Day at the 1085 01:13:01,693 --> 01:13:06,213 Speaker 2: annual Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation dinner. Anyway, he's going 1086 01:13:06,293 --> 01:13:09,253 Speaker 2: to go to the Correspondence dinner. I can't wait to 1087 01:13:09,293 --> 01:13:13,013 Speaker 2: see that. Cancel whatever you're doing and make sure you 1088 01:13:13,093 --> 01:13:16,013 Speaker 2: watch it, because I think it will be a very 1089 01:13:16,333 --> 01:13:20,413 Speaker 2: very entertaining function. Now that will take us out for 1090 01:13:20,693 --> 01:13:24,253 Speaker 2: podcast number three hundred and eighteen. But let me just 1091 01:13:24,813 --> 01:13:27,773 Speaker 2: entially before we go. I already had this week's podcast 1092 01:13:27,813 --> 01:13:34,213 Speaker 2: interview done and then along came the Iran War and 1093 01:13:34,693 --> 01:13:38,613 Speaker 2: I felt compelled to cover that rather than what we 1094 01:13:38,613 --> 01:13:42,213 Speaker 2: were going to do. So we arranged the interview with 1095 01:13:42,533 --> 01:13:46,653 Speaker 2: George for seven point thirty this morning and got up 1096 01:13:46,653 --> 01:13:49,253 Speaker 2: at five o'clock and took a cold shower. That's to 1097 01:13:49,293 --> 01:13:53,253 Speaker 2: wake you up. See, So that's the story. Next week 1098 01:13:53,373 --> 01:13:56,373 Speaker 2: will be this week's intended interview, and it has to 1099 01:13:56,413 --> 01:13:59,613 Speaker 2: do with the things that mattered to us, all of us, 1100 01:14:00,053 --> 01:14:03,853 Speaker 2: one way or the other. And I think it's very good. 1101 01:14:04,453 --> 01:14:07,573 Speaker 2: But we shall but in the meantime, we'll say if 1102 01:14:07,613 --> 01:14:10,213 Speaker 2: you'd like to write a US latent at news talks 1103 01:14:10,213 --> 01:14:12,093 Speaker 2: at b dot co dot nz or Caroline at news 1104 01:14:12,093 --> 01:14:16,453 Speaker 2: talks ab dot co dot nz, don't be hesitant, get 1105 01:14:16,493 --> 01:14:19,453 Speaker 2: it off your mind, and we'll say thank you very 1106 01:14:19,533 --> 01:14:29,333 Speaker 2: much for listening, and we shall talk to 1107 01:14:29,973 --> 01:14:33,933 Speaker 1: Thank you for more from News Talks B Listen live 1108 01:14:34,093 --> 01:14:36,853 Speaker 1: on air or online, and keep our shows with you 1109 01:14:36,893 --> 01:14:39,853 Speaker 1: wherever you go with our podcasts on iHeartRadio